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Playoff Projection

ryoder1

Well-Known Member
Feb 17, 2007
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Obviously this past weekend was great for us. Looking ahead here are some scenarios.....

We win and Texas wins, who is #1? They may put us at #2 to avoid a possible quarterfinal vs OSU who is probably #8. But if we beat the #1 team you can argue we should ascend to #1.

We lose and Texas wins are we a lock for #5? I think so as long as we are not crushed.

We lose and Texas loses? I think we are #6 and Texas is #5.

I don't think ND can jump us now. Will be confirmed when the penultimate rankings come out tomorrow.

I think if we are #5 we play ASU or Iowa State. If we are #6 we get Bama as I think they get #11 even if SMU loses ACC ccg and has one less loss. Wow, pretty big difference in first round opponents.
 
While there is a chance for us to get #1 with a win and Texas win, I think that likely puts us at the #2 seed. But I mostly agree with what you have said. I personally don't think ND would pass us if we lose - maybe if we really get blown out, but not with a reasonably close game. Notre Dame's schedule is just too poor to justify it (as I have said before, I personally think Notre Dame is more comparable to Indiana this season than to PSU due to the schedule difficulty).

PSU/Texas win -> Texas #1, PSU #2, Oregon #5, Notre Dame #6, Georgia #7
PSU/Georgia win -> PSU #1, Georgia #2, Oregon #5, Texas #6, Notre Dame #7
Oregon/Texas win -> Oregon #1, Texas #2, PSU #5, Notre Dame #6, Georgia #7
Oregon/Georgia win -> Oregon #1, Georgia #2, Texas #5, PSU #6, Notre Dame #7
 
Obviously this past weekend was great for us. Looking ahead here are some scenarios.....

We win and Texas wins, who is #1? They may put us at #2 to avoid a possible quarterfinal vs OSU who is probably #8. But if we beat the #1 team you can argue we should ascend to #1.

We lose and Texas wins are we a lock for #5? I think so as long as we are not crushed.

We lose and Texas loses? I think we are #6 and Texas is #5.

I don't think ND can jump us now. Will be confirmed when the penultimate rankings come out tomorrow.

I think if we are #5 we play ASU or Iowa State. If we are #6 we get Bama as I think they get #11 even if SMU loses ACC ccg and has one less loss. Wow, pretty big difference in first round opponents.
I think if we win and TX wins, we end up being #2. If we lose, my guess is that we end up being the #6 seed and still get a home game.
 
While there is a chance for us to get #1 with a win and Texas win, I think that likely puts us at the #2 seed. But I mostly agree with what you have said. I personally don't think ND would pass us if we lose - maybe if we really get blown out, but not with a reasonably close game. Notre Dame's schedule is just too poor to justify it (as I have said before, I personally think Notre Dame is more comparable to Indiana this season than to PSU due to the schedule difficulty).

PSU/Texas win -> Texas #1, PSU #2, Oregon #5, Notre Dame #6, Georgia #7
PSU/Georgia win -> PSU #1, Georgia #2, Oregon #5, Texas #6, Notre Dame #7
Oregon/Texas win -> Oregon #1, Texas #2, PSU #5, Notre Dame #6, Georgia #7
Oregon/Georgia win -> Oregon #1, Georgia #2, Texas #5, PSU #6, Notre Dame #7
Except ND has beaten the same cross teams by wider margins (as franklin stated saturday night, winning margin matters).


Most metrics have ND ahead of PSU. I think if Oregon and Texas win, it will be very close if ND jumps PSU or not. Going on the road and beating USC by 14 means something. We should know Tuesday night when the rankings come out where ND/PSU and Georgia/Tenn/OSU stand. But if Texas or Oregon lose, they're a lock for the 5 seed (especially Oregon).
 
Except ND has beaten the same cross teams by wider margins (as franklin stated saturday night, winning margin matters).


Most metrics have ND ahead of PSU. I think if Oregon and Texas win, it will be very close if ND jumps PSU or not. Going on the road and beating USC by 14 means something. We should know Tuesday night when the rankings come out where ND/PSU and Georgia/Tenn/OSU stand. But if Texas or Oregon lose, they're a lock for the 5 seed (especially Oregon).

Except ND has a loss to a 5 loss MAC school who has losses to Miami of Ohio, Ball State, Toledo, NC State and Buffalo.

Losing to NIU at home means something.
 
Except ND has beaten the same cross teams by wider margins (as franklin stated saturday night, winning margin matters).


Most metrics have ND ahead of PSU. I think if Oregon and Texas win, it will be very close if ND jumps PSU or not. Going on the road and beating USC by 14 means something. We should know Tuesday night when the rankings come out where ND/PSU and Georgia/Tenn/OSU stand. But if Texas or Oregon lose, they're a lock for the 5 seed (especially Oregon).

PSU has a much better SOS and a much less horrible loss. And PSU even has the best win - Illinois- of either program against a team currently ranked. I don't see how even adding a loss against an undefeated and #1 ranked team would move that needle.

It's not really a comparison in my mind. I'd actually feel fine if Georgia (for example) were ranked higher than PSU - at least they have the big wins and hard schedule to justify it despite the worse record. There's really no justification for ND being higher than PSU outside of margins of victory - but that is skewed since ND has such a pathetic overall schedule.
 
Except ND has beaten the same cross teams by wider margins (as franklin stated saturday night, winning margin matters).


Most metrics have ND ahead of PSU. I think if Oregon and Texas win, it will be very close if ND jumps PSU or not. Going on the road and beating USC by 14 means something. We should know Tuesday night when the rankings come out where ND/PSU and Georgia/Tenn/OSU stand. But if Texas or Oregon lose, they're a lock for the 5 seed (especially Oregon).
I am not seeing that. Everything I am seeing has PSU at 1/2 seeding if we win (depending on TX vs GA) and six if we lose
 
I wish I had the confidence the rest of you have with positioning should PSU lose Saturday. I could easily see ND jumping them, and Texas will stay in front with a loss. Even a 7 seed assumes PSU stays ahead of tOSU. The other polls didn’t give tOSU much respect, but that doesn’t exactly help PSU’s case if they lose.

Maybe it is my normal pessimism. Indoors, “perfect” weather against a team that can jump on others right out of the gate. Hope if there is a sluggish first half, our boys can bring the Ducks down to that level.
 
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I wish I had the confidence the rest of you have with positioning should PSU lose Saturday. I could easily see ND jumping them, and Texas will stay in front with a loss. Even a 7 seed assumes PSU stays ahead of tOSU. The other polls didn’t give tOSU much respect, but that doesn’t exactly help PSU’s case if they lose.

Maybe it is my normal pessimism. Indoors, “perfect” weather against a team that can jump on others right out of the gate. Hope if there is a sluggish first half, our boys can bring the Ducks down to that level.

Let's see how the boys do playing with house money on Saturday. The likely two highest 2025 NFL draft picks playing in this game are both wearing blue and white. The QB more likely to be drafted first will also be in blue and white. Oregon gave up a lot of points/yardage to the two best teams they played this year. 369 yards/34 points to Boise and 469 yards/31 to OSU.


Until OSU this year, Lanning had a reputation for underperforming in big moments. 0-3 vs Washington coming into the season and he was favored by 9.5 in the CCG, by 13 points in 2022.

He's 0-1 in CCGs
 
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Obviously this past weekend was great for us. Looking ahead here are some scenarios.....

We win and Texas wins, who is #1? They may put us at #2 to avoid a possible quarterfinal vs OSU who is probably #8. But if we beat the #1 team you can argue we should ascend to #1.

We lose and Texas wins are we a lock for #5? I think so as long as we are not crushed.

We lose and Texas loses? I think we are #6 and Texas is #5.

I don't think ND can jump us now. Will be confirmed when the penultimate rankings come out tomorrow.

I think if we are #5 we play ASU or Iowa State. If we are #6 we get Bama as I think they get #11 even if SMU loses ACC ccg and has one less loss. Wow, pretty big difference in first round opponents.
I think ND can but shouldn't be as high as 5. If Texas and Penn State win I can't see us jumping them. Texas 1 us 2...nothing to do with OSU
 
Except ND has beaten the same cross teams by wider margins (as franklin stated saturday night, winning margin matters).


Most metrics have ND ahead of PSU. I think if Oregon and Texas win, it will be very close if ND jumps PSU or not. Going on the road and beating USC by 14 means something. We should know Tuesday night when the rankings come out where ND/PSU and Georgia/Tenn/OSU stand. But if Texas or Oregon lose, they're a lock for the 5 seed (especially Oregon).
Losing at home to Northern Illinois means something too. Worst loss of anyone vying for a playoff spot.
 
If we beat Oregon and Texas wins then I think it is correct we get the 2 seed. The 7 seed could be a 3 loss Georgia.
 
Projections mean little Lowe has us at 9 if we lose...half of the experts are clueless.

Most of the supposed "experts" are biased fanboys of one stripe, or another. IOW, most of this crap is not true "sports journalism".... it's propaganda for, or against, a specific team and Conference.
 
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Except ND has a loss to a 5 loss MAC school who has losses to Miami of Ohio, Ball State, Toledo, NC State and Buffalo.

Losing to NIU at home means something
.
"It was early."
The mental gymnasts have already spoken on the matter and opened the door to marginalize the severity.
 
"It was early."
The mental gymnasts have already spoken on the matter and opened the door to marginalize the severity.
ND didn't win convincingly enough to overtake us and if we lose to Oregon they won't penalize us enough to drop behind ND. They won't penalize Texas that much if they lose to Georgia either. Our floor is 6.
 
Except ND has beaten the same cross teams by wider margins (as franklin stated saturday night, winning margin matters).

...
True, I didn't see the game, and ND winning at USC by 2 TDs was really impressive, BUT I did notice in the box score that the game was actually really close - ND had two pic-6s of 99+ yards, which is insane. So I don't know how much detail of an individual game the committee looks at.

I also think there will be a tendance to NOT punish the CCG loser unless they get blown out. SO if PSU loses a close game to Oregon, they will be the 5 or 6 seed, but if they loose by 14+, they will drop to 7-8 seed. At least that's my guess.
 
South Carolina/Alabama is actually a great debate

Bama has quality wins over South Carolina and Georgia (huge) but 2 bad losses
USCe has 3 solid losses but only 1 ranked win over Clemson...plus they lost H2H to Bama

Right now, I think it's pretty clear USCe is playing better football but that resumes is tough and does LSU still look like a "good loss".
I'd pick South Carolina--I think most would pick Bama
 
South Carolina/Alabama is actually a great debate

Bama has quality wins over South Carolina and Georgia (huge) but 2 bad losses
USCe has 3 solid losses but only 1 ranked win over Clemson...plus they lost H2H to Bama

Right now, I think it's pretty clear USCe is playing better football but that resumes is tough and does LSU still look like a "good loss".
I'd pick South Carolina--I think most would pick Bama
So Carolina list to LSU on a bad call fwiw
 
So Carolina list to LSU on a bad call fwiw
You know my opinion "the ref cost us a game"
It's still goes down as a loss. Again, I'm team "South Carolina for the playoff" as I think they've accomplished more than Bama, Miami and even SMU if they lose to Clemson but...I think Bama gets in. They're the betting favorite for a reason
 
ND didn't win convincingly enough to overtake us and if we lose to Oregon they won't penalize us enough to drop behind ND. They won't penalize Texas that much if they lose to Georgia either. Our floor is 6.
Not sure what you are arguing. The question was whether ND would jump PSU. The table has been set for the cabal to rationalize whatever final ranking they want for PSU/ND at 5/6. The NIU loss will not be used as a reason to keep ND below PSU.
 
7--we can fall to 7 depending on what happens with ND
I don't see ND ahead of us with the new rankings. We steamroll MD they win by 14 but did give up 35. Does not seem like enough for them. AP has us ahead of them.
Plus A&M loses and our sos is like 20 teams better.

Another thing to consider is if we drop to 7 after ccg loss which would have to be a bad loss imo then the only way that works out is Texas is 5, ND 6, OSU and Tenn 8 and 9 (not sure which is which), IU 10, Bama 11. This assumes SMU at 3 and Boise at 4 and Georgia at 2 or whatever it is but those 3 in the 2-4 spots. So we would be up vs IU and the committee won't want that. Even if they slide us to 8 to play Tenn then they have OSU vs IU and they definitely will not do that. I just don't don't see us lower than 6.
 
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Not sure what you are arguing. The question was whether ND would jump PSU. The table has been set for the cabal to rationalize whatever final ranking they want for PSU/ND at 5/6. The NIU loss will not be used as a reason to keep ND below PSU.
I am arguing they won't jump us. It is crazy to think the NIU loss does not hurt ND. We will see tonight but it is paranoia to think ND gets this preferential treatment. The committee likes us. We have the biggest win vs their biggest win and we have a much better loss plus strength of schedule is far better. What, because they win by 14 points at USC giving up 35? That is the argument? The game was pretty close. I guess it could happen but I don't see it likely.
 
I don't see ND ahead of us with the new rankings. We steamroll MD they win by 14 but did give up 35. Does not seem like enough for them. AP gas us ahead if them.
Plus A&M loses and our sos is like 20 teams better.

Another thing to consider is if we drop to 7 after ccg loss which would have to be a bad loss imo then the only way that works out is Texas is 5, ND 6, OSU and Tenn 8 and 9 (not sure which is which), IU 10, Bama 11. This assumes SMU at 3 and Boise at 4 and Georgia at 2 or whatever it is but those 3 in the 2-4 spots. So we would be up vs IU and the committee won't want that. Even if they slide us to 8 to play Tenn then they have OSU vs IU and they definitely will not do that. I just don't don't see us lower than 6.

Using all the criteria the Committee has stated (including not punishing CCG losers), PSU has the better SOS, the better win against a ranked team and the better loss prior to CCG. The Committee is not going to punish and drop PSU from 3 to 8 for losing the CCG. They aren't dropping them beyond 6 assuming TX loses to UGa (not below 5 if TX beats UGa).
 
Does the season matter or not? Are the rankings supposed to identify the "best" teams? Because if that is the case then OSU gets ranked ahead of PSU.

Don't the bookies determine the "best" teams? Does anyone think that PSU would be favored on a neutral field against OSU? Are they not "better?"

This is why I want a composite of the computer rankings as a basis for selection and seeding. It would take into account all of the factors that people deem important -- won/loss, score, SOS, and time (i.e., recent games are weighted higher than older games/previous year games. Anything less and it is a beauty/popularity contest.

Reality is that we are not really selecting the "best" teams, nor are we selecting the most "deserving." It is something in-between that needs a definition so that after-the-fact human bias doesn't do its corruption.
 
I don't see ND ahead of us with the new rankings. We steamroll MD they win by 14 but did give up 35. Does not seem like enough for them. AP has us ahead of them.
Plus A&M loses and our sos is like 20 teams better.

Another thing to consider is if we drop to 7 after ccg loss which would have to be a bad loss imo then the only way that works out is Texas is 5, ND 6, OSU and Tenn 8 and 9 (not sure which is which), IU 10, Bama 11. This assumes SMU at 3 and Boise at 4 and Georgia at 2 or whatever it is but those 3 in the 2-4 spots. So we would be up vs IU and the committee won't want that. Even if they slide us to 8 to play Tenn then they have OSU vs IU and they definitely will not do that. I just don't don't see us lower than 6.
I don't think we should go to 7--I just think it's a possibility
 
I am arguing they won't jump us. It is crazy to think the NIU loss does not hurt ND. We will see tonight but it is paranoia to think ND gets this preferential treatment. The committee likes us. We have the biggest win vs their biggest win and we have a much better loss plus strength of schedule is far better. What, because they win by 14 points at USC giving up 35? That is the argument? The game was pretty close. I guess it could happen but I don't see it likely.
It's not paranoia. We saw the mental gymnastics in 2016.

PSU had an early non-conference loss to a P5 team in Pitt and and early conference loss to Mich. PSU then ran the table, beat OSU, won the B2G and the cabal did the gymnastics to put OSU in the playoff over the B2G champ.
In 2016, no one ever said "PSU's OOC loss was early against a P5 team. They had a new QB and a new OC and it took them a few games to get going," but we've already seen "It's early" used to bolster the case for ND, while leaving out the G5 designation.
I'm not saying it WILL happen, but you are crazy to think that NIU will be used as reason to keep ND down.

If you dispute this, here is what CBS published this morning about ND.
"Notre Dame won 49-35 at USC to end its regular season. Only Louisville and Texas A&M played the Fighting Irish closer in a defeat. If they had defeated Northern Illinois, there would be much weeping and gnashing of teeth over the fact that they cannot get a bye."
READ: ND beat USC by two TD and has been dominant all season. If it wasn't for that loss, they'd be worthy of a bye.

I mean, based on your rationale above, the voting totals between PSU/ND should not be close, but they are a rounding error.
PSU SOS is 32 with a loss to OSU. ND is 78 with a loss NIU, but the point totals between the 2 are a rounding error. If the cabal wants to put ND above PSU, they will put ND above PSU. I'll predict that if PSU loses by 2 TDs to Oregon, ND jumps PSU in both the coaches and AP
 
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Does the season matter or not? Are the rankings supposed to identify the "best" teams? Because if that is the case then OSU gets ranked ahead of PSU.

Don't the bookies determine the "best" teams? Does anyone think that PSU would be favored on a neutral field against OSU? Are they not "better?"

This is why I want a composite of the computer rankings as a basis for selection and seeding. It would take into account all of the factors that people deem important -- won/loss, score, SOS, and time (i.e., recent games are weighted higher than older games/previous year games. Anything less and it is a beauty/popularity contest.

Reality is that we are not really selecting the "best" teams, nor are we selecting the most "deserving." It is something in-between that needs a definition so that after-the-fact human bias doesn't do its corruption.

Complete nonsense that duhO$U should be ranked higher based on the regular season - duhO$U had two Conf loses, one to a 5-loss Conference opponent at time of play. Net result is that duhO$U OBJECTIVELY finished in 4th Place in B1G Regular Season play behind PSU and did not make the B1G CCG - PSU OBJECTIVELY finished 2nd in B1G Conference two positions in front of duhO$U and qualified as such for the B1G CCG, but here you are claiming that duhO$U should be ranked in front of PSU based on the B1G Regular Season???? Laughable bull$hit - duhO$U just lost to a 5-loss Conference Opponent for their 2nd Conference loss, they do not deserve to be ranked higher than a 1-loss 2nd Place B1G team playing in the B1G Conference Championship Game.
 
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Or Clemson beating SMU which will keep all three out

Sure, but the Committee has rankings to put out tonight, so they can't just count on SMU losing. If they want to "hedge their bets" to avoid the choice among the 3 loss SEC teams, they easiest way is to keep Miami-FL above all of them tonight.
 
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