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Predicted Tournament Points after Flo's 184

RoarLions1

RoarLions1

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May 11, 2012
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Thought it would be a good idea to start a separate thread as we go from 184, to 197 (Thursday), and 285 (Friday).

Again, based on CP's "Predictions", not rankings, here's the Tournament Points for the top teams, Placement and Advancement Points only;

By placing Bo at #1 at 184, these predictions move PSU back in front through 8 weight classes. PSU is 12 points better than Iowa, with Ohio State 6 points behind the Hawkeyes. Missouri is next, 12 points back of tOSU, followed by OSU 4 points back for 5th.
 
Seems like Oklahoma State has a very balanced team, and will be preseason #1 on most lists, but lack the elite heavy hitters to score major advancement & placement points.

And this is all before bonus points are sprinkled on top of the sundae.
 
diggerpup said:
Seems like Oklahoma State has a very balanced team, and will be preseason #1 on most lists, but lack the elite heavy hitters to score major advancement & placement points.

And this is all before bonus points are sprinkled on top of the sundae.
Click to expand...

Yes, OSU has a balanced line-up, and also a lot of uncertainties. For example CP rated returning #4 Boyd as #8 (a decent point swing there). Heil is their best shot at #1 being defending champ, but he's certainly not a lock. By contrast PSU has 2 locks! A big factor for OSU is how youngsters Piccinnini, Brock and Smith do.
 
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AFTER 197. the "Predicted" NCAA Points (Placement & Advancement) are;
PSU still first, with Missouri moving into 2nd, 10 points back. Ohio State is only 1.5 points behind Missouri, and Iowa a smidgeon (.5 points) behind tOSU. Then there's about a 20 point drop for 5th place and lower.
 
RoarLions1 said:
AFTER 197. the "Predicted" NCAA Points (Placement & Advancement) are;
PSU still first, with Missouri moving into 2nd, 10 points back. Ohio State is only 1.5 points behind Missouri, and Iowa a smidgeon (.5 points) behind tOSU. Then there's about a 20 point drop for 5th place and lower.
Click to expand...


That will push OSU past us when Snyder hits the mat. Not including whatever NN does.
 
So the only way Ohio State isn't the (pre-bonus) projected champ is if Snyder very suddenly decides he's done
 
RoarLions1 said:
Hey...you guys cheated by reading ahead!! Agree with you both...
Click to expand...
It also assumes Guilbon repeats in 2017 what he did in 2016 AND we have no wrestling studs at 174 and 197. That is somewhat due to the fact that, other than the coaching staff, no one seems to know who our starters will be at 174 and 197. It also assumes Bo starts 184. CP even acknowledges that Cutch will have impact whether he wrestles at 174 or 197. So I think we look good preseason.
 
What the predictions don't show is Cael has all year to coach up someone and work them into a point scorer at 74 & 97.

That's where depth helps.

Cutch. Rasheed. Morelli. Caesar. Stout. We're gonna get a handful of points (or more) from this group somewhere in 74 and / or 97.
 
Plus the huge cache of bonus points racked up by the Zain/Nolf duo are not figured in. It really does look like a close race is likely this year, but nobody is offering much more than a guess at so many of these weights. 165,174,184. These weights will go far in determining the team champion this year. All the big boys expect plenty of points from these weights. Somebody will be very disappointed. I'm up in the air a bit on who this favors, but Cael and Casey have a pretty strong track record in these weights.
 
Let's just hope everyone stays healthy...and the chips fall where they may. If our guys are in good health come tournament time, I like our chances.
 
[QUOTE="RoarLions1, post: 2398583, member: 9196"If our guys are in good health come tournament time, I like our chances.[/QUOTE]

Me too. Bonus points are king and assuming we stay healthy, they will likely make the difference this year.
 
If the other weights perform like we believe they can, they won't needs points at 174 or 197. That being said, I think who ever wins the spot at 174 will score some. 197, not so confident. If Cassar was healthy, the opportunity is there for him to place, maybe even high, but that second shoulder injury really has me question his impact this season.
 
We got very little last year from 141, 165 and 184, and still won the title. I'm not all that concerned with this eventual prediction.
 
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greenmanRD said:
We got very little last year from 141, 165 and 184, and still won the title. I'm not all that concerned with this eventual prediction.
Click to expand...

Keep in mind the big points at 125 and 197 last year. I do think PSU might need something at 174. Anything more than a couple at 141 would probably be enough. There are just so many guesses.
 
James P. Whitters III said:
Keep in mind the big points at 125 and 197 last year. I do think PSU might need something at 174. Anything more than a couple at 141 would probably be enough. There are just so many guesses.
Click to expand...

Always a lot of guesses, which is what makes if fun. We'll have a much better idea of how we stand after the first month of the season, especially if OK State does bring their starters to Reno.
 
James P. Whitters III said:
Keep in mind the big points at 125 and 197 last year. I do think PSU might need something at 174. Anything more than a couple at 141 would probably be enough. There are just so many guesses.
Click to expand...

Of course! I don't want to suggest it's not. It's going to be important to get contributions in at least a few of 133, 141, 165, 174, 197 and HWT. I feel pretty comfortable obviously with Zain, Nolf and Bo. I think Suriano is going to be really good by the end of the season, so I'm not as worried about him.

But we will definitely need quite a few to step up to clinch another title.
 
Final "Prediction" Ranking, using only Advancement and Placement Points. CP had a "final prediction", which considered Bonus Points, and PSU was #1 on that list...to be read separately if you want...as Tom posted a thread with that info.

Anyway, here's the top-10;
Row Labels Sum of Points
Ohio State 100
Penn State 98
Ok State 90
Iowa 89.5
Missouri 81.5
Virginia Tech 72
Michigan 43.5
Cornell 38.5
Illinois 37.5
Minnesota 34.5
 
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RoarLions1 said:
Final "Prediction" Ranking, using only Advancement and Placement Points. CP had a "final prediction", which considered Bonus Points, and PSU was #1 on that list...to be read separately if you want...as Tom posted a thread with that info.

Anyway, here's the top-10;
Row Labels Sum of Points
Ohio State 100
Penn State 98
Iowa 89.5
Missouri 81.5
Virginia Tech 72
Ok State 57.5
Michigan 43.5
Cornell 38.5
Illinois 37.5
Minnesota 34.5
Click to expand...

Thanks for compiling. Hard imagining NC State not ending up in the top ten this year even with the line-up changes. But, it's gonna be a tough year. Can't wait!
 
KidNittany said:
Thanks for compiling. Hard imagining NC State not ending up in the top ten this year even with the line-up changes. But, it's gonna be a tough year. Can't wait!
Click to expand...
NC State was #16. The way some teams were bunched together, and adding Bonus Points, and all the unknowns...we'll find out soon enough that this early season stuff isn't all that accurate.
 
greenmanRD said:
Of course! I don't want to suggest it's not. It's going to be important to get contributions in at least a few of 133, 141, 165, 174, 197 and HWT. I feel pretty comfortable obviously with Zain, Nolf and Bo. I think Suriano is going to be really good by the end of the season, so I'm not as worried about him.

But we will definitely need quite a few to step up to clinch another title.
Click to expand...

Let's not forget that we had 5 finalists last year. 5!!! That will be tough to match. I think this year will be harder to repeat than last year, because we don't have a clear path to 5 finalists. I mean we had Bo, Nolf, and Mac lose their finals matches and we still won. That would have been huge if we weren't such a runaway last year.

This year the finalists are??? Zain, Nolf are betting favorites. Throw in Bo even at a deep weight class for argument. But nobody outside of that weight room thinks that Suriano, Cortez, Jimmy, Joseph, Morreli, Cutch, Shakur, Stoudt, Cassar or Nevills is a finalist contender.

It will be a tougher run this year to hoist the title. JMO.
 
MDAlum said:
Let's not forget that we had 5 finalists last year. 5!!! That will be tough to match. I think this year will be harder to repeat than last year, because we don't have a clear path to 5 finalists. I mean we had Bo, Nolf, and Mac lose their finals matches and we still won. That would have been huge if we weren't such a runaway last year.

This year the finalists are??? Zain, Nolf are betting favorites. Throw in Bo even at a deep weight class for argument. But nobody outside of that weight room thinks that Suriano, Cortez, Jimmy, Joseph, Morreli, Cutch, Shakur, Stoudt, Cassar or Nevills is a finalist contender.

It will be a tougher run this year to hoist the title. JMO.
Click to expand...
Well, people outside the weight room think Suriano is a finalist contender. So that makes 4.
If PSU has 4 finalists, I expect they could all lose and Penn State will still win the title.
 
Those projected places based on rankings only has OSU in 6th with 57.5 points (more than 40 below PSU). With almost all their guys in the top 8, hard to see how they would be down that far with 7 or 8 AA's projected.
 
tomsc said:
Those projected places based on rankings only has OSU in 6th with 57.5 points (more than 40 below PSU). With almost all their guys in the top 8, hard to see how they would be down that far with 7 or 8 AA's projected.
Click to expand...

You have to analyze the tourney placement scoring.

Huge points for finalists, 16 & 12 I believe.

Once you reach 6th, 7th & 8th, placement points are much lower. (I'm sure someone can post placement points for all eight AA finishings)
 
tomsc said:
Those projected places based on rankings only has OSU in 6th with 57.5 points (more than 40 below PSU). With almost all their guys in the top 8, hard to see how they would be down that far with 7 or 8 AA's projected.
Click to expand...

Tom, see the change above. As an explanation, I used a pivot table in Excel...and had 2 different Oklahoma State's.
 
Points are as follows;
1st: 20 (16+4)
2nd: 16 (12+4)
3rd: 13.5 (10+3.5)
4th: 12.5 (9+3.5)
5th: 10 (7+3)
6th: 9 (6+3)
7th: 6.5 (4+2.5)
8th: 5.5 (3+2.5)
9-12: 2
 
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