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Basketball PREVIEW/GAME THREAD: Penn State Hoops versus Illinois on Tuesday

Richie O

Richie O

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Mar 21, 2016
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Does anybody still care? ESPN gives us a 47% chance.

Decent start. PSU playing under screens gave ILL open looks.
 
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Pickett goes out and ILL runs off 6 straight. He comes back in and catches fire. 7 for 8, 14 pts.

Not so great on defense though. He keeps getting picked off or plays under screens which leads to easy looks for ILL.
 
Just on fire this first half. Hopefully we come out that way in the 2nd because Illinois is good enough to come back if we go cold.
 
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PSU leads 53-40 at half. Pickett with 24 on 10-12 shooting. Got a real break on that last second goal tending call.

ESPN gives PSU an 85% win probability. It's only a 13 pt lead so that seems extreme. I'd say more like 60%. ILL bigs are dominating in the paint and their coaches are going to make adjustments.
 
bdgan said:
PSU leads 53-40 at half. Pickett with 24 on 10-12 shooting. Got a real break on that last second goal tending call.

ESPN gives PSU an 85% win probability. It's only a 13 pt lead so that seems extreme. I'd say more like 60%. ILL bigs are dominating in the paint and their coaches are going to make adjustments.
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So you are saying you are more negative toward PSU than ESPN...the SEC network. Based on your be body of work... I agree.
 
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ILL dominating inside. Njie with 3 fouls. PSU will soon be in the penalty.
 
Pickett at 30 points now and PSU up 68-57. I can see an Illinois run though and make this one a barn burner.
 
87 Penn St8 said:
I had the wrong start time and caught just the end of the first half.

Kalen at 28 points w 14 mins left
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PSU shooting 64% and they're still in a dogfight. Fouls are mounting and ILL will be shooting FTs.

IMO Dread/Lundy/Funk might need 4 more 3pters between them to close this game out.
 
I’ve felt all year that if Pickett developed his three point shot, he’d be unstoppable.
 
PSU up 76-66 with 8 minutes left. A couple of threes right now from Funk would be nice.
 
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PSU had a 13 pt lead with 10:50 to go. Can they hold on? It helps that they're shooting the bonus.

Now up 13 with 5 minutes to go. I'm believing.
 
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Won't matter but dumb foul by Lundy on the 3 pt shooter. Another dumb foul early in the 2nd half on an ILL breakaway.

Pickett with 41 pts!
 
AWS1022 said:
Was anyone else still uncomfortable even when we were up by double digits with three minutes left? But scoring 93 points against Illinois is pretty strong.
Click to expand...

I don't watch every game, but they seem to have these unbearable cold streaks. The offense goes only through Pickett. Nobody else can drive or make their own shot. Defense seems small.
 
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Impressive win. The question is if we just have Illinois' number and for some reason match up well or are we capable of this any night? Also, we've seen this team look great one game and then let up the next couple. Can we keep it going?
 
AWS1022 said:
Was anyone else still uncomfortable even when we were up by double digits with three minutes left? But scoring 93 points against Illinois is pretty strong.
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No, but I was uncomfortable when the lead was down to 10 with 7 minutes to go.

Now we head to Minnesota who is horrible. Gotta win that one. Then to OSU who is 3-11 in the BiG. Win those two and we're 17-11 and they can break our hearts down the stretch vs Rutgers, NW, and MD.
 
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Still not a good enough effort defensively, but the offense carried us. We got to the line 19 times, something that we’ve been sorely lacking, and also finally got some easy buckets inside.

Big one coming up on Saturday night.
 
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Erial_Lion said:
Still not a good enough effort defensively, but the offense carried us. We got to the line 19 times, something that we’ve been sorely lacking, and also finally got some easy buckets inside.

Big one coming up on Saturday night.
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I agree that defense was a problem. PSU players play under a lot of screens and their double teaming creates open looks for opponents who can move the ball.

There's no way PSU can afford to lose to Minnesota (losers of 8 straight) or Ohio State (losers of 6 straight) even if those games are on the road.
 
bdgan said:
I agree that defense was a problem. PSU players play under a lot of screens and their double teaming creates open looks for opponents who can move the ball.

There's no way PSU can afford to lose to Minnesota (losers of 8 straight) or Ohio State (losers of 6 straight) even if those games are on the road.
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Ohio State will be a really tough one...they are much better than their record would indicate.

To feel good about our chances heading into the Big Ten Tourney, we'd need to go 4-1 over the final 5. Go 3-2, and at least things will be interesting as we'd need to pick up a couple of wins in Chicago.

Pomeroy/Torvik see the final 5 like this (with chance of winning in kenpom/t-rank)...

@Minnesota - 79%/80%
@Ohio St - 39%/38%
Rutgers - 52%/54%
@Northwestern - 38%/33%
Maryland - 52%/60%
 
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Erial_Lion said:
Ohio State will be a really tough one...they are much better than their record would indicate.

To feel good about our chances heading into the Big Ten Tourney, we'd need to go 4-1 over the final 5. Go 3-2, and at least things will be interesting as we'd need to pick up a couple of wins in Chicago.

Pomeroy/Torvik see the final 5 like this (with chance of winning in kenpom/t-rank)...

@Minnesota - 79%/80%
@Ohio St - 39%/38%
Rutgers - 52%/54%
@Northwestern - 38%/33%
Maryland - 52%/60%
Click to expand...
I understand the home court advantage but I struggle to believe we have a better chance to beat Rutgers and Maryland than we have to beat Ohio State and Northwestern.

IMO the path to the NCAA tournament would look like this:
Currently 15-11
MINN 16-11 (they're not good)
OSU 17-11 (agree better than record but must win)
RUT 17-12 (can't stop their big guy)
NW 18-12 (tough road game but must win)
MD 18-13 (tough even at home)

Then win at least one game in the BiG tournament which will be difficult against a strong opponent in Chicago. That would get us to 19-14 and give us a chance.

The losses to to Wisconsin & Nebraska really hurt. Those aren't good teams.
 
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