Probability of Winning - Official 2019 Edition

[Unbiased_football_fan]

Greetings from UFF! Now that the brackets came out I was able to plug them in and crunch the “official” numbers for 2019. As a quick reminder, this is based on a probabilistic simulation of the whole NCAA tournament, including bonus points. The model is created in the software package GoldSim, which is the Jason Nolf equivalent of modeling software (Check them out!). If you have any questions or have a modeling problem you want to discuss please message me. Now that is out of the way…….

The model does very well, but this year looks to be a dog fight for the 4th trophy so the order of 3 to 5 could easily be scrambled. Here are a few observations:

1) Teams that tout # of qualifiers generally don’t have a good chance. It is great for your program but not great for winning the tourney. YOU NEED HIGH END FIREPOWER TO WIN. Think #1 and #2 seeds.

2) Bonus points are very important. The Penn State way. Penn State is really wrestling with the equivalent of 12 guys due to their bonus point rate. Watch the bonus rates drop off tremendously by the third round for most teams but not for Penn State (usually).

3) Teams that grind can work their way to a 4th place trophy but that is about it. Plus grinding is bad for the sport. Who wants to watch 7 minutes of collar ties and “riding” that entails letting a guy to his feet after 15 seconds and forcing him out of bounds 17 times? Stay in the circle and put on your damn big girl panties!!!! If you are in low scoring matches very frequently all it takes it one mistake and you are done, may work for duals but is a bad strategy for the tourney. You can grind your way to an individual title but the days of a team grinding its way to a title are over.

4) At the NCAA tourney almost every guy is a past state champion of some sort – I appreciate all the effort you put in.

5) Seeds don’t matter as much as we like to debate. Instead, look for early round landmines for highly ranked guys. That is what really hurts your team scoring (or serious injuries). A guy that is severely under- or over-seeded is likely to over or under perform.

6) There is one characteristic of a top ten wrestler that best predicts whether he will over or under perform his seed. This is based on sensitivity analyses using genetic algorithms on the data from many past seasons. Message me and I will let you know what it is

Okay here are the results for 2019 (As before, this is the team and probability of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, based on 10,000 realizations using latin hypercube sampling). Do we really care about 4th? Does anyone remember even who the third place team for most things? No, they don't. The model has a nice GUI and you can make charts and other cool stuff. If someone wants to see them message me and I can email you some jpg’s or other image files:

Team 1st 2nd 3rd

PSU 99.97 0.03 0 Chance of winning: Extremely high
Ohio St 0.03 66.3 26.0 Chance of winning: Your telling me there’s a chance
OkSt 0.00 28.8 47.2 Chance of winning: Tiny
Mich 0.00 3.2 14.5 Chance of winning: Same as against Ohio St in football
Iowa 0.00 3.8 12.5 Chance of winning: Hummingbird’s pecker size

This year is the year to sit back and enjoy the whole thing. Cheer for that unranked guy to place. Watch the battle for 3rd to 5th as teams. Enjoy a couple of our special wrestlers for one last tourney. If PSU got beat it would be a tremendous accomplishment for someone and that in unto itself should be appreciated.

UFF

 

[SJP80]

I would love to believe your 99.97 chance of winning. I don’t. I’m pretty good at sniffing out numbers that don’t make sense. Not sure what the variables are but those numbers way too high. Only 3 times in 10,000 simulations...

Hope you right and wrapped up before the finals are half done...

 

[sneedram55]

Greetings from UFF! Now that the brackets came out I was able to plug them in and crunch the “official” numbers for 2019. As a quick reminder, this is based on a probabilistic simulation of the whole NCAA tournament, including bonus points. The model is created in the software package GoldSim, which is the Jason Nolf equivalent of modeling software (Check them out!). If you have any questions or have a modeling problem you want to discuss please message me. Now that is out of the way…….

The model does very well, but this year looks to be a dog fight for the 4th trophy so the order of 3 to 5 could easily be scrambled. Here are a few observations:

1) Teams that tout # of qualifiers generally don’t have a good chance. It is great for your program but not great for winning the tourney. YOU NEED HIGH END FIREPOWER TO WIN. Think #1 and #2 seeds.

2) Bonus points are very important. The Penn State way. Penn State is really wrestling with the equivalent of 12 guys due to their bonus point rate. Watch the bonus rates drop off tremendously by the third round for most teams but not for Penn State (usually).

3) Teams that grind can work their way to a 4th place trophy but that is about it. Plus grinding is bad for the sport. Who wants to watch 7 minutes of collar ties and “riding” that entails letting a guy to his feet after 15 seconds and forcing him out of bounds 17 times? Stay in the circle and put on your damn big girl panties!!!! If you are in low scoring matches very frequently all it takes it one mistake and you are done, may work for duals but is a bad strategy for the tourney. You can grind your way to an individual title but the days of a team grinding its way to a title are over.

4) At the NCAA tourney almost every guy is a past state champion of some sort – I appreciate all the effort you put in.

5) Seeds don’t matter as much as we like to debate. Instead, look for early round landmines for highly ranked guys. That is what really hurts your team scoring (or serious injuries). A guy that is severely under- or over-seeded is likely to over or under perform.

6) There is one characteristic of a top ten wrestler that best predicts whether he will over or under perform his seed. This is based on sensitivity analyses using genetic algorithms on the data from many past seasons. Message me and I will let you know what it is

Okay here are the results for 2019 (As before, this is the team and probability of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, based on 10,000 realizations using latin hypercube sampling). Do we really care about 4th? Does anyone remember even who the third place team for most things? No, they don't. The model has a nice GUI and you can make charts and other cool stuff. If someone wants to see them message me and I can email you some jpg’s or other image files:

Team 1st 2nd 3rd

PSU 99.97 0.03 0 Chance of winning: Extremely high
Ohio St 0.03 66.3 26.0 Chance of winning: Your telling me there’s a chance
OkSt 0.00 28.8 47.2 Chance of winning: Tiny
Mich 0.00 3.2 14.5 Chance of winning: Same as against Ohio St in football
Iowa 0.00 3.8 12.5 Chance of winning: Hummingbird’s pecker size

This year is the year to sit back and enjoy the whole thing. Cheer for that unranked guy to place. Watch the battle for 3rd to 5th as teams. Enjoy a couple of our special wrestlers for one last tourney. If PSU got beat it would be a tremendous accomplishment for someone and that in unto itself should be appreciated.

UFF

So you're saying there's a chance?

 

[Unbiased_football_fan]

I have learned my computer is more accurate than my nose, but to each their own.

Add up the points based on the seeds if you wish, then throw in the bonus. Then try to subtract/add to close the gap with second. Now factor in the probability of all those things happening.

The model has predicted close races in the past, but not this year.

UFF

 

[PSUoh90]

I have learned my computer is more accurate than my nose, but to each their own.

Add up the points based on the seeds if you wish, then throw in the bonus. Then try to subtract/add to close the gap with second. Now factor in the probability of all those things happening.

The model has predicted close races in the past, but not this year.

UFF

I remember 2 years ago after Suriano got injured many PSU fans were skeptical going into Nationals. At the time, despite what other PSU fans thought, your model had PSU as significant favorite. Sure enough, PSU had the team race clinched going into Saturday. As your model projects this year, the race between first and second will not be close.

 

[Dogwelder]

... I’m pretty good at sniffing out numbers that don’t make sense. Not sure what the variables are but those numbers way too high. Only 3 times in 10,000 simulations ...

Do you have any number-sniffing awards or certificates or diplomas? Also, are you a fast cook? #allingoodfun

 

[Tom McAndrew]

This year is the year to sit back and enjoy the whole thing. Cheer for that unranked guy to place. Watch the battle for 3rd to 5th as teams. Enjoy a couple of our special wrestlers for one last tourney. If PSU got beat it would be a tremendous accomplishment for someone and that in unto itself should be appreciated.

UFF

thanks for once again running the simulation

 

[goStanford18]

PSU 99.97 0.03 0 Chance of winning: Extremely high

UFF

This is pretty much how I've felt since early January. All of PSU's hammers (which is at...141, 157, 165, 174, 184, 197, and 285) will have to seriously underperform--e.g., Joseph, Hall, AND Rasheed falling to 5th or worse PLUS Nolf and Nickal not scoring any bonus...WHILE either tOSU or OSU have all of their guys wrestle the tournament of their lives. It would literally take the perfect storm for one of the OSU's in order to upset Penn State. Technically, there's a chance of this perfect storm happening because nothing is absolutely guaranteed. Essentially, the title is Penn State's.

 

[Lyons212]

This is pretty much how I've felt since early January. All of PSU's hammers (which is at...141, 157, 165, 174, 184, 197, and 285) will have to seriously underperform--e.g., Joseph, Hall, AND Rasheed falling to 5th or worse PLUS Nolf and Nickal not scoring any bonus...WHILE either tOSU or OSU have all of their guys wrestle the tournament of their lives. It would literally take the perfect storm for one of the OSU's in order to upset Penn State. Technically, there's a chance of this perfect storm happening because nothing is absolutely guaranteed. Essentially, the title is Penn State's.

Based on seeds and advancement PSU projects to 125.5 points, Oklahoma State is second with a projection of 84. Given PSU's bonus point rate and the fact that under Cael PSU usually exceeds their projected seeds as a whole and we are looking at the perfect team wide stomach flu as about the only way PSU does not win NCAA's this year.

 

[aalion]

I would love to believe your 99.97 chance of winning. I don’t. I’m pretty good at sniffing out numbers that don’t make sense. Not sure what the variables are but those numbers way too high. Only 3 times in 10,000 simulations...

Hope you right and wrapped up before the finals are half done...

More likely it will be wrapped up before semi-finals are half done. Ok maybe 3/4s done. If it is still in doubt going into Saturday night, I will be very surprised. Mathematically should be clinched Saturday morning at the latest.

 

[Maddog]

More likely it will be wrapped up before semi-finals are half done. Ok maybe 3/4s done. If it is still in doubt going into Saturday night, I will be very surprised. Mathematically should be clinched Saturday morning at the latest.

Hope you're right, as I'm tied up most of Saturday and won't be able to follow as closely as I'd like.

 

[SJP80]

Do you have any number-sniffing awards or certificates or diplomas? Also, are you a fast cook? #allingoodfun

All good. I'm with everyone else. I'm hoping it over sooner rather than later. It just seemed hard for me to believe there were only 3 possible scenarios in 10,000 where it could go wrong.

 

[Lyco1990]

Greetings from UFF! Now that the brackets came out I was able to plug them in and crunch the “official” numbers for 2019. As a quick reminder, this is based on a probabilistic simulation of the whole NCAA tournament, including bonus points. The model is created in the software package GoldSim, which is the Jason Nolf equivalent of modeling software (Check them out!). If you have any questions or have a modeling problem you want to discuss please message me. Now that is out of the way…….

The model does very well, but this year looks to be a dog fight for the 4th trophy so the order of 3 to 5 could easily be scrambled. Here are a few observations:

1) Teams that tout # of qualifiers generally don’t have a good chance. It is great for your program but not great for winning the tourney. YOU NEED HIGH END FIREPOWER TO WIN. Think #1 and #2 seeds.

2) Bonus points are very important. The Penn State way. Penn State is really wrestling with the equivalent of 12 guys due to their bonus point rate. Watch the bonus rates drop off tremendously by the third round for most teams but not for Penn State (usually).

3) Teams that grind can work their way to a 4th place trophy but that is about it. Plus grinding is bad for the sport. Who wants to watch 7 minutes of collar ties and “riding” that entails letting a guy to his feet after 15 seconds and forcing him out of bounds 17 times? Stay in the circle and put on your damn big girl panties!!!! If you are in low scoring matches very frequently all it takes it one mistake and you are done, may work for duals but is a bad strategy for the tourney. You can grind your way to an individual title but the days of a team grinding its way to a title are over.

4) At the NCAA tourney almost every guy is a past state champion of some sort – I appreciate all the effort you put in.

5) Seeds don’t matter as much as we like to debate. Instead, look for early round landmines for highly ranked guys. That is what really hurts your team scoring (or serious injuries). A guy that is severely under- or over-seeded is likely to over or under perform.

6) There is one characteristic of a top ten wrestler that best predicts whether he will over or under perform his seed. This is based on sensitivity analyses using genetic algorithms on the data from many past seasons. Message me and I will let you know what it is

Okay here are the results for 2019 (As before, this is the team and probability of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, based on 10,000 realizations using latin hypercube sampling). Do we really care about 4th? Does anyone remember even who the third place team for most things? No, they don't. The model has a nice GUI and you can make charts and other cool stuff. If someone wants to see them message me and I can email you some jpg’s or other image files:

Team 1st 2nd 3rd

PSU 99.97 0.03 0 Chance of winning: Extremely high
Ohio St 0.03 66.3 26.0 Chance of winning: Your telling me there’s a chance
OkSt 0.00 28.8 47.2 Chance of winning: Tiny
Mich 0.00 3.2 14.5 Chance of winning: Same as against Ohio St in football
Iowa 0.00 3.8 12.5 Chance of winning: Hummingbird’s pecker size

This year is the year to sit back and enjoy the whole thing. Cheer for that unranked guy to place. Watch the battle for 3rd to 5th as teams. Enjoy a couple of our special wrestlers for one last tourney. If PSU got beat it would be a tremendous accomplishment for someone and that in unto itself should be appreciated.

UFF

Hummingbird loflmoa

 

[Dogwelder]

All good. I'm with everyone else. I'm hoping it over sooner rather than later. It just seemed hard for me to believe there were only 3 possible scenarios in 10,000 where it could go wrong.

Thanks for being a good sport, SJP80. BTW, I know what you mean; 3 out of 10,000 in anything reflexively seems too good to be true. It’s good to be the king!

 

[STAND with PRIDE]

UFF, might you have an Actuarial Degree?

 

[STAND with PRIDE]

UFF, giving VJ a 50% chance,Shak a 50%, and AC a 33%, whats the probability we get 6 consecutive?

 

[Unbiased_football_fan]

UFF, might you have an Actuarial Degree?

No, I have three engineering degrees and one physics degree. I am what you would call a nerd. But I did letter in two NCAA sports and enjoy pumping iron so I'm not a total nerd!

 

[Unbiased_football_fan]

UFF, giving VJ a 50% chance,Shak a 50%, and AC a 33%, whats the probability we get 6 consecutive?

If you put Hall at 50% too, that would be something like 4% (1 in 25) assuming the only way Bo and Nolf don't win are via injury (~1%). But I doubt the win probability for each are independent. Based on how Cael trains and prepares them if one is higher they are probably all higher. I would subjectively put it at about 9%. That would be something.

By the way here were median team scores:

PSU 158
Ohio St 99
OkSt 90
Mich 73
Iowa 72

Though Michigan depends a lot on Micic's health. They don't have much high end firepower. And Iowa on Marinelli and Lee, Marinelli's path looks filled with landmines.

 

[psumacw]

UFF, might you have an Actuarial Degree?

i have an actuarial math degree. @Unbiased_football_fan is much smarter than me.

 

[NittanyLion84]

No, I have three engineering degrees and one physics degree. I am what you would call a nerd. But I did letter in two NCAA sports and enjoy pumping iron so I'm not a total nerd!

We sure could have used your credentials, back when Ban used to frequent this board.

 

[PD4thespawn]

Greetings from UFF! Now that the brackets came out I was able to plug them in and crunch the “official” numbers for 2019. As a quick reminder, this is based on a probabilistic simulation of the whole NCAA tournament, including bonus points. The model is created in the software package GoldSim, which is the Jason Nolf equivalent of modeling software (Check them out!). If you have any questions or have a modeling problem you want to discuss please message me. Now that is out of the way…….

The model does very well, but this year looks to be a dog fight for the 4th trophy so the order of 3 to 5 could easily be scrambled. Here are a few observations:

1) Teams that tout # of qualifiers generally don’t have a good chance. It is great for your program but not great for winning the tourney. YOU NEED HIGH END FIREPOWER TO WIN. Think #1 and #2 seeds.

2) Bonus points are very important. The Penn State way. Penn State is really wrestling with the equivalent of 12 guys due to their bonus point rate. Watch the bonus rates drop off tremendously by the third round for most teams but not for Penn State (usually).

3) Teams that grind can work their way to a 4th place trophy but that is about it. Plus grinding is bad for the sport. Who wants to watch 7 minutes of collar ties and “riding” that entails letting a guy to his feet after 15 seconds and forcing him out of bounds 17 times? Stay in the circle and put on your damn big girl panties!!!! If you are in low scoring matches very frequently all it takes it one mistake and you are done, may work for duals but is a bad strategy for the tourney. You can grind your way to an individual title but the days of a team grinding its way to a title are over.

4) At the NCAA tourney almost every guy is a past state champion of some sort – I appreciate all the effort you put in.

5) Seeds don’t matter as much as we like to debate. Instead, look for early round landmines for highly ranked guys. That is what really hurts your team scoring (or serious injuries). A guy that is severely under- or over-seeded is likely to over or under perform.

6) There is one characteristic of a top ten wrestler that best predicts whether he will over or under perform his seed. This is based on sensitivity analyses using genetic algorithms on the data from many past seasons. Message me and I will let you know what it is

Okay here are the results for 2019 (As before, this is the team and probability of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, based on 10,000 realizations using latin hypercube sampling). Do we really care about 4th? Does anyone remember even who the third place team for most things? No, they don't. The model has a nice GUI and you can make charts and other cool stuff. If someone wants to see them message me and I can email you some jpg’s or other image files:

Team 1st 2nd 3rd

PSU 99.97 0.03 0 Chance of winning: Extremely high
Ohio St 0.03 66.3 26.0 Chance of winning: Your telling me there’s a chance
OkSt 0.00 28.8 47.2 Chance of winning: Tiny
Mich 0.00 3.2 14.5 Chance of winning: Same as against Ohio St in football
Iowa 0.00 3.8 12.5 Chance of winning: Hummingbird’s pecker size

This year is the year to sit back and enjoy the whole thing. Cheer for that unranked guy to place. Watch the battle for 3rd to 5th as teams. Enjoy a couple of our special wrestlers for one last tourney. If PSU got beat it would be a tremendous accomplishment for someone and that in unto itself should be appreciated.

UFF

forget all the math. just watch the new geico "pass the ball" commercial. that is psu vs. the field

 

[Cowbell Man]

Does the model include coaches tirades that cost a team point and result in not getting 4th?

 

[dbldoofus]

i have an actuarial math degree. @Unbiased_football_fan is much smarter than me.

I have a baseball cap with a UFO sending down a spotlight and finding bigfoot.

 

[El-Jefe]

Ohio State's chance not positive infinity?

Computer model fail.

 

[pawrestlersintn]

We sure could have used your credentials, back when Ban used to frequent this board.

Oh, he still frequents.

 

[AgSurfer]

UFF,

Fellow nerd here. Ok, here's a good one to follow up on the question of the probability of 6 national champions. Is there any method where you could take Bayesian statistics into consideration. For example, Nick Lee isn't favored to win, but there is still a possibility he could do it given that injuries, big mistakes or some other factor are always part of the equation. So if Lee were to win, the probability of 5 more winners increases due to difficult to quantify effects like psychology and momentum. Any ideas here?

 

[SetonHallPirate]

Based on seeds and advancement PSU projects to 125.5 points, Oklahoma State is second with a projection of 84. Given PSU's bonus point rate and the fact that under Cael PSU usually exceeds their projected seeds as a whole and we are looking at the perfect team wide stomach flu as about the only way PSU does not win NCAA's this year.

What he said, and this has been true since October. The only person who can stop Penn State from winning the 2019 NCAA Championships is Dan Monthley.

 

[bwfight]

That’s all well and good, but what does your model say about needing 8 scoring wrestlers to win?

 

[Nashville_Hawkeye]

I would love to believe your 99.97 chance of winning. I don’t. I’m pretty good at sniffing out numbers that don’t make sense. Not sure what the variables are but those numbers way too high. Only 3 times in 10,000 simulations...

Hope you right and wrapped up before the finals are half done...

I don't know. I think that barring injuries 3 times in 10,000 is pretty accurate. In fact, I think I would take the under. I can't picture a scenario where any other team is even close. And trust me, I would love to see such a scenario so the overall outcome isn't such a foregone conclusion, but this year I just don't see it.

 

[Jkos11]

This begs the question Mr Astrophysicist lol, what are the chances Penn state has 8 finalists or 8 champs compared to the 3 in 10k?

 

[Dogwelder]

Ohio State's chance not positive infinity?

Computer model fail.

Cool! That is great nerd sarcasm hidden inside regular sarcasm, in the sense that usually it is infinity--and not lack of infinity--that is the symptom and signal of a model fail.

 

[Cali_Nittany]

UFF,

Fellow nerd here. Ok, here's a good one to follow up on the question of the probability of 6 national champions. Is there any method where you could take Bayesian statistics into consideration. For example, Nick Lee isn't favored to win, but there is still a possibility he could do it given that injuries, big mistakes or some other factor are always part of the equation. So if Lee were to win, the probability of 5 more winners increases due to difficult to quantify effects like psychology and momentum. Any ideas here?

 

[Dogwelder]

UFF, giving VJ a 50% chance,Shak a 50%, and AC a 33%, whats the probability we get 6 consecutive?

Did you really just ask someone to multiply 6 numbers together for you?

 

[pointingdogsrule]

Did you really just ask someone to multiply 6 numbers together for you?

Not everyone has taken "stats & analysis" .

 

[NoVa Lion]

I don't know. I think that barring injuries 3 times in 10,000 is pretty accurate. In fact, I think I would take the under. I can't picture a scenario where any other team is even close. And trust me, I would love to see such a scenario so the overall outcome isn't such a foregone conclusion, but this year I just don't see it.

Barring injuries I agree. But how can you just ignore injuries when they happen all the time.

 

[Unbiased_football_fan]

UFF,

Fellow nerd here. Ok, here's a good one to follow up on the question of the probability of 6 national champions. Is there any method where you could take Bayesian statistics into consideration. For example, Nick Lee isn't favored to win, but there is still a possibility he could do it given that injuries, big mistakes or some other factor are always part of the equation. So if Lee were to win, the probability of 5 more winners increases due to difficult to quantify effects like psychology and momentum. Any ideas here?

Replying to different things at once, apologize for the disjointed nature:

I’ve thought about this, and yes you could do it. But, I don’t know how you could validate your model. There simply isn’t enough data to do it so ultimately I think it would be an exercise in numerical screwing around.

Someone asked about injuries: the model includes injuries for all the wrestlers in the win and bonus percentages against each other seed. Top wrestlers get injured somewhat less than lower wrestlers but that number is still around 2%. That is why Bo and Nolf’s win percentage in the model will never be 100%. Although an injured Nolf did win last year......

The 8 scorers to win is a complete myth!!! (Here is where 21 guns challenges my manhood with a bench press competition)

PSU’s chances of 8 champs is probably close to their chances of losing (mathematically). I would have to look at the output and see what is the max champs in any realization. I don’t think Berge or RBY can win though. The math is probably wrong here because we have seen them against top guys and Berge especially is suffering from a weight cut issue.

If Cassar and Rasheed come back and Cael doesn’t redshirt everyone the scary thing for other teams is PSU will be the favorites again. I’ll run that simulation after the tourney is complete.

 

[STAND with PRIDE]

Did you really just ask someone to multiply 6 numbers together for you?

Did you really post at 2 AM?? You need sleep. Was the answer really that easy to figure?? Lol

 

[NittanyLion84]

The 8 scorers to win is a complete myth!!! (Here is where 21 guns challenges my manhood with a bench press competition)

Just to be accurate, 21 Guns prefers a fight outside of a State College bar, not a bench press competition, in your case, I doubt Guns would make an appearance.

 

[Ian]

Replying to different things at once, apologize for the disjointed nature:

I’ve thought about this, and yes you could do it. But, I don’t know how you could validate your model. There simply isn’t enough data to do it so ultimately I think it would be an exercise in numerical screwing around.

Someone asked about injuries: the model includes injuries for all the wrestlers in the win and bonus percentages against each other seed. Top wrestlers get injured somewhat less than lower wrestlers but that number is still around 2%. That is why Bo and Nolf’s win percentage in the model will never be 100%. Although an injured Nolf did win last year......

The 8 scorers to win is a complete myth!!! (Here is where 21 guns challenges my manhood with a bench press competition)

PSU’s chances of 8 champs is probably close to their chances of losing (mathematically). I would have to look at the output and see what is the max champs in any realization. I don’t think Berge or RBY can win though. The math is probably wrong here because we have seen them against top guys and Berge especially is suffering from a weight cut issue.

If Cassar and Rasheed come back and Cael doesn’t redshirt everyone the scary thing for other teams is PSU will be the favorites again. I’ll run that simulation after the tourney is complete.

Even without both they will be even money! Beard and Nevills will be at least top five in their weights.

 

[Lyons212]

Barring injuries I agree. But how can you just ignore injuries when they happen all the time.

To close the initial projected 40 point gap between PSU and OSU, PSU would need to have two wrestlers like Nolf and Nickal get injured in round 1 and default out of the tournament. What are the odds of that happening?