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PSU-Illinois line

I think if clifford was healthy the line would be 28 or higher, the Illini offense is rough
 
okinburg1 said:
PSU -20.5. Seems high with the uncertainty at QB.
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the line must assume we pitch a shutout and max out our offensive capability with backup QB. maybe we get a couple TDs from DEF.

Illinois offense is horrible, but their DEF has stopped some people that have real offenses.
 
Grant Green said:
I have PSU -19.5, assuming a 5 point deduction for Clifford (so assumes Clifford is out).
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How is your spreadsheet getting to -19.5?

Let's assume PSU shuts out Illinois....your model can account for a woeful PSU QB managing 2 TD drives and 2 FG's (or 3 TD drives and a missed XP)? Illi's defense isn't horrible.
 
Good time to point out this stat. PSU is 3-18-2 ATS under Franklin in regular season games, when PSU has lost their previous regular season game (within the same regular season).

Franklin generally hasn't been great at rallying his team from adversity. We'll see how he does when he gets another chance in 6 days.
 
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Penn State line actually opened at 17...then moved to 23 at many books. Early money coming in on Penn State big-time.

By the way, same trend on Clemson-Pittsburgh. Opened at Clemson minus 3 and quickly moved to Pitt minus 3...even 4 at some books.

Early on, bettors appear to like Penn State and Pitt...a lot.
 
michnittlion said:
Good time to point out this stat. PSU is 3-18-2 ATS under Franklin in regular season games, when PSU has lost their previous regular season game (within the same regular season).

Franklin generally hasn't been great at rallying his team from adversity. We'll see how he does when he gets another chance in 6 days.
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What are his stats in games following a loss ....straight-up and after a bye week? My recollection is that Franklin's record following a bye week isn't great either.
 
BW Lion said:
How is your spreadsheet getting to -19.5?

Let's assume PSU shuts out Illinois....your model can account for a woeful PSU QB managing 2 TD drives and 2 FG's (or 3 TD drives and a missed XP)? Illi's defense isn't horrible.
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There is no modelling involved. Every team has a power rating. I have PSU at 92 with SC and 87 without and a HFA of 2.7. I have Illinois at 68. (87+2.7)-68 = 21.7. I handicapped PSU -2 for look ahead to OSU. Voila.
This is pretty much the same approach that oddsmakers use to set lines. It's a lot simpler than people think.

Edit -This is just for establishing a line. I use advance statistics to further handicap and determine where I have the biggest edges.
 
Grant Green said:
There is no modelling involved. Every team has a power rating. I have PSU at 92 with SC and 87 without and a HFA of 2.7. I have Illinois at 68. (87+2.7)-68 = 21.7. I handicapped PSU -2 for look ahead to OSU. Voila.
This is pretty much the same approach that oddsmakers use to set lines. It's a lot simpler than people think.
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Okay, but Power Ratings are retrospective, right? How do you get a prospective Power Rating with Roberson as QB?
 
BW Lion said:
What are his stats in games following a loss ....straight-up and after a bye week? My recollection is that Franklin's record following a bye week isn't great either.
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1-3 ATS and 0-4 overall.

The 4 games were:
  • Michigan 2014 (after Northwestern loss and a bye).
  • Ohio State 2014 (after Michigan loss and a bye --- this was the ATS victory).
  • Michigan 2015 (after Northwestern loss and a bye).
  • Michigan State 2018 (after Ohio State loss and a bye).
The 2018 MSU game is pretty notorious in terms of the team simply not being mentally with it. A very flat performance that afternoon.
 
Jerry said:
Penn State line actually opened at 17...then moved to 23 at many books. Early money coming in on Penn State big-time.

By the way, same trend on Clemson-Pittsburgh. Opened at Clemson minus 3 and quickly moved to Pitt minus 3...even 4 at some books.

Early on, bettors appear to like Penn State and Pitt...a lot.
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Bet the house on Clemson -- first team with any talent at all that pitt will have played. pitt will be exposed as total frauds.
 
LemonEars said:
Bet the house on Clemson -- first team with any talent at all that pitt will have played. pitt will be exposed as total frauds.
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I would not recommend this. Clemson's D matches up with Pitt offense pretty well, but big advantage to Pitt D over Clemson O. I'll take Pitt-3 if I can get decent odds on it. May not see it again though.

PS. As I was writing this, the line is getting pounded on Bookmaker, up to -6. I was happy to find -3-121 with a fairly good sized bet. It may lose, but I'm pretty confident that there is value at this number.
PSS. Bet back down to -4.5. Interesting line moves.
 
Last edited:
I would take the Illini and the under at any spread 19+. I think we win like 20-10.
 
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Grant Green said:
I have PSU -19.5, assuming a 5 point deduction for Clifford (so assumes Clifford is out).
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Roberson instead of Clifford is worth a lot more than 5 pts IMO

I think PSU is averaging 28 pts on offense. We only scored 24 vs Indiana with Clifford. I think we'll be lucky to score 24 against Illinois without Clifford. That means the defense has to hold Illinois to a FG. That could happen but it will be difficult without Mustipher.

I'll say 24-10 but I wouldn't be surprised to see 17-6.
 
bdroc said:
Roberson instead of Clifford is worth a lot more than 5 pts IMO

I think PSU is averaging 28 pts on offense. We only scored 24 vs Indiana with Clifford. I think we'll be lucky to score 24 against Illinois without Clifford. That means the defense has to hold Illinois to a FG. That could happen but it will be difficult without Mustipher.

I'll say 24-10 but I wouldn't be surprised to see 17-6.
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I considered going up to 6, but a college QB is rarely worth that much. I recall that Tua was worth about 7 (coming from some oddsmakers) when he had the ankle injury at Bama a few years ago. Oddsmakers and early bettors (more often pros) agree, as they have moved the line up to at least -23.5.
 
Grant Green said:
I considered going up to 6, but a college QB is rarely worth that much. I recall that Tua was worth about 7 (coming from some oddsmakers) when he had the ankle injury at Bama a few years ago. Oddsmakers and early bettors (more often pros) agree, as they have moved the line up to at least -23.5.
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Take the points. I don't think we can score 24 pts with Roberson unless at least 7 come from the defense.
 
LemonEars said:
Bet the house on Clemson -- first team with any talent at all that pitt will have played. pitt will be exposed as total frauds.
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Speaking of betting, I'll bet you haven't watched a full game of either Pitt or Clemson this year, have you?
 
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bdroc said:
Take the points. I don't think we can score 24 pts with Roberson unless at least 7 come from the defense.
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You may be right, but be careful judging Roberson based on what you just saw. There is a reason people like to fade the public. With 2 weeks of practice with the 1st team, a much weaker defense, and HFA, he could look completely different. Illinois may not score more than 6.
And keep in mind. I have this at -19.5, so I'm not betting PSU at -23.5.
 
Grant Green said:
You may be right, but be careful judging Roberson based on what you just saw. There is a reason people like to fade the public. With 2 weeks of practice with the 1st team, a much weaker defense, and HFA, he could look completely different. Illinois may not score more than 6.
And keep in mind. I have this at -19.5, so I'm not betting PSU at -23.5.
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Two things you can always bank on with the masses...overvaluing injuries, and overvaluing Home Field Advantage.

Not capping NCAAF these days, I have no idea how much Clifford is worth...but I'm sure it's less than what most people on this board would assume.
 
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PSUFBFAN said:
Speaking of betting, I'll bet you haven't watched a full game of either Pitt or Clemson this year, have you?
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I've watched a few pitt games. I did watch their game yesterday. Pickett had great stats. He was playing pitch and catch with receivers all day like he was in a hay field with no defenders. Vo Tech has a horrific secondary and hardly any rush.

I haven't watched any Clemson games. I do know that they are loaded with 4 and 5 star recruits. The pitters are loaded with 2 and 3 star recruits. We will see what happens next weekend.
 
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