PSU opens as a 9.5 favorite over WVU, 5 point over both USC and Wisconsin, and a 5 point dog at home to Ohio St
- Thread starter EdwardoCarrachio
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If true, and things go as vegas plans, we'd be a one-loss team.
It seems like a fair evaluation of our chances this season. I know some on this board disbelieve this, but I do have some concern about WVU away. Seems like a trap game to me. This does seem like an immense window of opportunity for the program with a number of powers like USC, Wash, and Wiscy in rebuild this year . Allar is the key. The rest of the team is at least as talented as we have been in the last several years. If Allar improves to the level of Clifford 2022, we’re in the playoffs no problem. If he’s better than Cliff, we’re making a run.
I share the concern about WVU away to open up. We were told they were terrible when we blasted them at home last year. They finished with 9 wins and a bowl win. They are at least a decent team and it's away and the first game jitters.
On the flip side, you pass the test with a decent team away to open the season and you are likely starting at a better place than had you beat up on some non-power 4 team. So I think it can help us get a better earlier in the season and so that we can make adjustments early on things that were a little tougher in game 1 than if we opened with say Akron at home.
Agree…..but the key is Allar/Kotelnicki. The entire offense has to click and much of that is on Coach K.
We shall see if Coach K can put Allar into good throwing windows and that the OL can mesh quickly. Two keys for this offense to excel.
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As I've said before, a 10-2 record for this team with this schedule would mean a lot more than last season's 10-2 record with that schedule. I know that a lot of people on this board want more, as do I, but you have to be realistic. A 10-2 record definitely would get this team into the playoffs. Therefore, I definitely would sign up if you told me that that would be the record.
I believe that the 2024 team's ceiling is 10-2, but the floor could be a few more losses if certain players (#15 for example) don't take the next step and/or there are catastrophic injuries at positions with very little depth.
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I think the ceiling is undefeated during the regular season. We are favored in all but 1 as of right now and that line is only 5 points.
Do I think we go undefeated regular season? I'd say maybe 10% chance of that. I think 10-2 is more likely. But we could be a 1 loss team as well and we could be a 3/4 loss team. A lot of it depends on how those new coordinators pan out, if WRs and OL step up (we need several to do so), fingers crossed staying healthy, and if Drew can take the next step.
If I had to bet, I'd say 10-2 (40% chance), 11-1 (25% chance), and then 9-3 (15% chance). 12-0 (10% chance) and 8-4 (10% chance) being also possible.
I hope that you're right. I hate to put the onus on one player, but Allar is going to need to have the progression that Kerry Collins did from 1993 to 1994. By saying this, I don't expect Allar to have a Heisman Trophy caliber season like Collins did in 1994. What I do expect is for him to be a more mature and vocal leader of the offense, make much faster decisions, be a more precise passer with the deeper routes, and just show a visible growth from last season, especially when he plays in tough venues on the road.
yep..sometimes the season sets up well....lets take a look
- WVU - Challenging but a game we should win against a pesky opponent that will be psyched in their house.
- BGSU - MAC team that was good last year. Should be a good way to clean up WVU mistakes with low risk.
- Bye
- Kent - MAC team to clean up what was put in during the bye and get healthy again
- Illinois - First B1G opponent at home when Illinois is rebuilding. But they've got a good coach that is creative and is known to give us fits as well as a template on how to attack us for future opponents
- UCLA - Decent team that is middle to back of the pack B1G. Should be a solid win at home
- USC - Will be our first challenge game in the new B1G. Good, well-coached team with a lot of talent that lost their Heisman winner QB. But they've got an all-american WR that will give us fits. Thsi is probably the lynchpin to our season and a potential playoff birth. We win and we are probably in. We lose and we are probably out. They play Minny at Minny, which can be a physical game and a big game for the Gophers.
- bye - good time to get healthy and reload
- Wisconsin - They were pretty good last year, at least, improving. I am surprised to see them ranked so lowly this year as they have good talent in the trenches and a good coach. Will be a challenge on the road and after a bye (we typically don't play well after a bye). Wiscy plays NW the week before in Chicago.
- THE Ohio State University - Universally considered the best team in the nation this will be the best team we play (of course) unless something drastic happens with them. They will be coming off of a physical game vs Nebraska after a bye. This is the only game where we will be expected to lose and by a lot.
- Washington - They graduated a ton but a fun home game with W having to go cross country after playing USC at home. Of tough ask for them.
- Purdue - Decent opponent in Indiana. Could be a trap game but Purdue may be the worst team in the B1G.
- Minnesota - another away game late in the season in Minneapolis. Weather could be an issue. Well coached and physical. We'll need to play well and not get trapped
- MD - We pretty well handled these guys and this will be back in Happy Valley on Nov 30th. Could be a weather game as well as this will be the latest regular season game I can ever remember us playing.
Wisconsin is a sneaky tough game just because they have a veteran qb who has experienced some success at Miami; if they didn't have him, I wouldn't think much of their chances.
I still think that the USC game is one of those games that's just going to prove to be very tough to win because of the travel, strange environment, and what probably will be a very good USC offense and improved defense. Conversely, I believe that the travel issue will help us against Washington and definitely against UCLA, which has to travel to LSU two weeks before they have to travel to State College.
Regarding the WVU game, although I respect them, this is the type of game that a Franklin team almost never loses. Also, last season, WVU struggled to beat a horrible Pitt team at home in a night game when Pitt could barely complete a pass. Despite WVU winning 9 games last season, they definitely weren't a dominant team. Also, It definitely should help that PSU will play them at 12:00 p.m. on a holiday weekend.
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- WVU - 80% W
- BGSU - 90% W
- Bye 98% W
- Kent - 99% W
- Illinois - 85% W
- UCLA - 80% W
- USC - 60% W
- bye - 98% W
- Wisconsin - 70% W
- Ohio State - 40% W
- Washington - 80% W
- Purdue - 90% W
- Minnesota - 80% W
- MD - 80% W
Our biggest difference is tOSU. I think USC is a near toss up give we have to go to the coast. I also think @ W will be tougher since it is an away game on the West coast.
Bye looks tougher than I thought it would be
Not sure I buy into the premise that PSU with a 10-2 mark is definitely getting in. Highly likely tOSU and UM get in with at least equal or better records than PSU just based on reputation. Then it could boil down to how many teams in other conferences go undefeated or end up with 11-1 or 10-2 records, and whether the voters want 3 teams from the BIG in the top 12. And don't forget about ND possible taking a spot. A lot of moving parts and voter biases that doesn't necessarily put PSU in the top 12. If PSU were to lose to WVU and MD to finish 10-2, I doubt it they would get in.
3 things.
1) @Obliviax Ohio St opened as a 5-point favorite against us. That's why I shot out a 40% on that game. It may well be tougher. USC is a 5-point dog to us. That's why I say 60% W. Although perhaps the travel weighs on our guys more than Vegas expects.
2) Bye can be tough. Young people do dumb things sometimes on bye weeks.
3) @Hugh Laurie, I get the favoritism for certain brands but there are only 2 power conferences now. ACC and Big 12 will get invited, as will Notre Dame. But the 2 power conferences could have 4 invites a piece.
1) @Obliviax Ohio St opened as a 5-point favorite against us. That's why I shot out a 40% on that game. It may well be tougher. USC is a 5-point dog to us. That's why I say 60% W. Although perhaps the travel weighs on our guys more than Vegas expects.
2) Bye can be tough. Young people do dumb things sometimes on bye weeks.
3) @Hugh Laurie, I get the favoritism for certain brands but there are only 2 power conferences now. ACC and Big 12 will get invited, as will Notre Dame. But the 2 power conferences could have 4 invites a piece.
Penn State is currently a solid top 8 bet to win the national championship. There are 4 big ten teams in top 10. Conference will get 4 teams in for sure every year. 10-2 will get them in
That assumes the favorite always wins which is certainly possible. The problem is there are several teams where we're only single digit favorites. Winning all of those won't be easy.
It's not supposed to be easy but it's supposed to be accomplished. Less than 10 wins this year would be a very bad sign for this program. There's no rebuilding in this era. That would be a giant step back given the schedule. 10-2 is fine but that schedule makes 11-1 very attainable.
That WVa QB was pretty elusive last year and we have a couple of new LBs. So yes, that could be a challenging game.
I don't see it as a trap game though. Why would anybody have a letdown in week one?
That was a weakness last year. I didn't understand why they didn't keep Allen at RB and put Singleton in thr slot. Also more inside screens. Give Allar some easy throws and get your best athletes in space.
I believe that 10-2 with PSU’s schedule definitely would get them into the playoffs. Also, the TV Networks definitely would want PSU in the playoffs, and we all know that they carry a lot of weight and definitely influence tournament decisions.
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I am concerned about PSU containing the WVU QB. Very mobile/elusive and will probably have improved accuracy from last season. Throws pretty well on the run. PSU defense will have to play disciplined football against him and try to keep him in the pocket.
Agree but we've got the edge guys and linebackers. Plus, WVU's strength last year with their OL including the Center, LT and TE. Often these are the guys that make the skill guys look good.
By the second half of the season he was a pretty good passer, including deep balls. Watch the first half of the last game of the regular season against Baylor. Looked pretty dang good.
Baylor, who was a 3 win team last year, was beyond awful last year and he was not good in that game. Constantly late with throws and inaccurate. This Garrett Greene is good nonsense is one of the worst lies being told on this board. The fact anyone here wants to say he was a "pretty good passer" last year is beyond laughable. Watch the Oklahoma game if you want to see what he looks like against a defense with a pulse. Simply put, deer in headlights. Absolutely lost. The game is too fast, even at the college level, for him to process things. He's a first read QB that will then immediately look to get out of the pocket with the hopes of taking off.
If people want to pretend he's scary to play against because he can read (which he can) that's fine but he's a horrible passer. One of the worst in the nation last year which the numbers prove even if your eyes refuse to let you see the truth.
Reminder Baylor allowed 42 points at home to Texas State. Against FBS teams they allowed an average of 36 PPG. WVU put up 34 in a 3 point win thanks to a last second score. Next time watch the full game not a half when trying to evaluate a player. His second half was horrific until the last drive which you probably knew since you referenced the first half.
I'd like to say that someday people will accept that WVU and Greene weren't good last year but the desperation to make them a quality win is so strong that we're beyond the point of being rational.
The networks will have virtually no say in who gets in. Pairings will be based on the highest ranked teams with rankings determined by the poll voters.
So you don't think that there will be any influence on where certain teams are ranked in order to get teams into the playoffs that have large fan followings and give the Networks great TV ratings over others that don't? Why do I think that if, say, the last spot came down to a 10-2 ND and a 10-2 K State or Oklahoma State, ND would be positioned in order to make it? That kind of stuff has happened before, and it will happen again.
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Neal Brown, WVU head coach indicated during spring ball that there was emphasis placed on improving Greene's accuracy. We shall see if it helped. Still, he remains a dangerous running threat and they have two solid RBs. Now, how much impact on the OL were those that graduated, especially their Center?
LBs are King, Rojas, & Elsdon. King is solid. Rojas has lots of potential but is young. Elsdon is Elsdon. I'm not ready to call that a elite group.
Sutton & Carter should be elite on the edge.
I agree that 10-2 gets us in but I don't agree that 4 BiG teams are guaranteed.
The 5 highest ranked conference champs get in and that will likely include the BiG, SEC, Big 12 and ACC champs. I'm not sure about the 5th conference champ. That leaves 7 spots for non conference winners + ND. There's no guarantee that 3 of those 7 would come from the BiG.
I've never felt that a qb who primarily runs usually beats PSU. Those qbs may make a few big plays, but it never seems like they can do enough to win a game against PSU. Now, if Greene does become a better passer, then his running will make him very dangerous. Also, because he runs so much, it seems like Greene gets hurt often.
They only beat Baylor at the very, very end of the game, and that was a bad Baylor team.
How's that? The only way that happens is if money is exchanging hands which I seriously doubt.
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