PSU vs. msu: How do you see the match-ups?

[BobPSU92]

If anyone here is familiar with msu's strengths and weaknesses, please share how you see the match-ups -- offense, defense, special teams. Where do you expect Penn State to excel? Where will Penn State struggle? In what areas does msu concern you?

 

[83wuzme]

I would be most concerned about their DL vs our OL, especially considering our accumulated losses on the OL. But again, I have no idea what to expect from MSU. I never thought MSU was as bad as their record this season, and it looks like they finally started putting things together here at the end of the season.
I think we need to put pressure on MSU to throw it around as much as possible, whether that means being able to shut down their run or scoring early. From what I have seen, that is where their offense is least comfortable.

 

[PennState_one]

Shouldn't be 55-16 this year either way... crossing my fingers, but I think this team is waaaaay better than last year regardless of the o-line issues. Plus home field should really help as well.

MSU will NOT be a gimmee tho...

 

[ClarkstonMark]

I would be most concerned about their DL vs our OL, especially considering our accumulated losses on the OL. But again, I have no idea what to expect from MSU. I never thought MSU was as bad as their record this season, and it looks like they finally started putting things together here at the end of the season.
I think we need to put pressure on MSU to throw it around as much as possible, whether that means being able to shut down their run or scoring early. From what I have seen, that is where their offense is least comfortable.

their DL has all of 10 sacks this year. we should be fine

 

[marshall23]

Michigan State will be a difficult, physical game. If the weather is cooperative I think PSU's offense will be able to score enough points to win. MSU's qb situation makes them somewhat one dimensional at this point. So while they have a pretty good OL, I don't see them as being able to make a living with the pass.

 

[21Guns]

Last year we had trouble with Cox and Nicholson in their secondary. We need to get open, and we need to use 88. We had a number of plays last year to the TE, but that Carter fumble killed us and took the game away from us in the second quarter. Up to that point we had moved the ball very well through the air on them. After that, Cox and Nicholson rolled up and they clamped down on us. Blacknall can play a big part in this game. Defensively, they still have those three fat guys on the right side, including the center. Kieler got away with a ton of holds on us last year, especially on Austin Johnson. We might want to stunt linebackers to get more pressure on them, as Ohio State had better success when they sent a linebacker. They're a one trick pony, as it is LJ Scott left and right, and if they get behind the chains, we can get them on third down as they don't throw well. They are going to play the Erie kid in this game also, and about 90 percent of the time that means run, but not every time as they threw it with him twice on Ohio State.

Special teams their punter is hit and miss, and their kicker is good from close but iffy from distance.

We need to get 26 going in this game, if that happens, it will open them up and Moorhead will call his game. They are young up front, but there is talent there...still if 26 can get into the secondary, this team isn't going to catch him.

Keys: Barkley, Gesicki, Blacknall, Moorheads adjustments, getting McGovern back, blitzing from the corners on passing downs, keying on Scott, and covering Josiah Price their TE who is now their go-to guy. Field position and punting with 93 flipping the field, and forcing mistakes by their offense. They are susecptible to mistakes, most penalized team in the big ten.

 

[bdgan]

Any official word on Mahon?

 

[BobPSU92]

Thanks for the comments, folks. I read that msu is having quarterback issues.

Only 10 sacks this season for msu. Wow. That makes me feel a bit better about our offensive line.

 

[VaNtyLion]

It will be a tough game. MSU's issue has not been a talent gap. For whatever reason they just haven't put it together this year...may be they got complacent and have an issue being the hunted rather than the hunter. In any case, this is the type of game Sparty has usually thrive on as the underdog and I'd be surprised if they rolled over.

Getting McGovern and Mahon back would ease my concerns but may only see the former. McSorely is the X factor. Need to keep their front 7 off balance. They seem to be pretty average against the run but much better against the pass so obviously need to expect a loaded box.

I think our D, playing at home, should be able to contain MSU's offense and force O'Connor into mistakes. 24 pts will probably be enough to win.

 

[royboy]

Thanks for the comments, folks. I read that msu is having quarterback issues.

Only 10 sacks this season for msu. Wow. That makes me feel a bit better about our offensive line.

I'm getting more and more confident about the PSU defense. They have become a very hard team to run against with good penetration by the D-line and good tackling from the LBs and Safeties. High number of TFL, and pressuring the passer. The D-line depth is a really big factor by the 2nd half.

The defensive weakness, if there is one, is against the pass, particularly with a QB who can throw accurate short to medium passes against zone coverages. QBs from Purdue, Iowa, and Indiana who were not world-beaters but competent throwers were able to gain substantial yardage. Michigan State appears to be run first and not have the offensive playmakers or style to score much vs PSU.

Penn State could score 17 points and win this IMO, and I like the chances of Trace and Barkley and Co. scoring more than 17 points.

 

[NittanyOpp]

I swear i saw Mahon #70 running on practice field last week in a video PSU puts out each week.

 

[21Guns]

I am sure Coach Franklin will make the injury situation crystal clear for all, tomorrow.

 

[Nittany82]

Thanks for the comments, folks. I read that msu is having quarterback issues.

Only 10 sacks this season for msu. Wow. That makes me feel a bit better about our offensive line.

Michigan State's current starting defensive front consists of 3 freshmen and a sophomore....their best defensive lineman, Malik McDowell has missed the last two weeks with an ankle injury. His status for this week's game is uncertain....even if he's back, his ankle injury may prevent him from being fully effective.

 

[interrobang]

Another DL, Kevin Williams, was hurt last game. I haven't seen any update on his injury.

 

[Player2BNamedL8r]

Depending on what happens between the hours of noon and 3:30, there's a good chance we'll be trying to beat a scrappy Sparty team AND a herd of b1g zebras at the same time. Should be fun!!

 

[BobPSU92]

Depending on what happens between the hours of noon and 3:30, there's a good chance we'll be trying to beat a scrappy Sparty team AND a herd of b1g zebras at the same time. Should be fun!!

The coaching staff may have to work extra hard to keep the team focused on Saturday. They have to focus on msu, regardless of the outcome of um-Tosu. It seems obvious, but sometimes easier said than done.

 

[NittanyLionRoar]

If the refs really do try to influence the outcome of games this weekend, it will be in penn state's favor. Michigan or ohio state winning is a win win for the B1G because the winner is likely in the playoff. It does the B1G no good to have one of their top 10 teams beat by a team with a losing record.

 

[BobPSU92]

If the refs really do try to influence the outcome of games this weekend, it will be in penn state's favor. Michigan or ohio state winning is a win win for the B1G because the winner is likely in the playoff. It does the B1G no good to have one of their top 10 teams beat by a team with a losing record.

Except that we're still lucky to just be playing football.

Seriously, delany was part of the cabal to undermine Penn State. Now he needs Penn State. F-ck him. Franklin and company are doing this for themselves and the university community. Screw the moneymakers.

 

[rohrmd9]

"...how do you see the match-ups?"

From my seats in section EB!

Okay, okay....lame, I know, but I couldn't resist.

 

[PSU20]

We have to run the ball with SB to be effective with the passing game. My concern is what happened to our running game against Indiana. If MSU sees that, and they already did, then they will do what Indiana did, put two LB's directly over center and stop SB in his tracks on the ROP. None of our OL blocked the Indiana LB's, the virtually went untouched the entire game.

End result, SB had a 1.8 yard rushing average for the game, for something like 38 yards.

 

[Nittanyplayer#12]

I hope we roll early and often but my gut says its gonna come down to 4th qtr. Knowing the OSU vs Mich game might play a factor too.

 

[Judge Smails]

Looking at most of the stats, it's surprising that MSU has such a poor record. There are some key differences, though. MSU only averages about 25 yards less in offense per game then PSU, but averages 10 less points per game. Their rush defense is about the same as us, but for them giving up 4.3 ypc is different than previous years. As mentioned above, they are last in the B1G with only 10 sacks. Their -4 turnover margin has also contributed to their demise, but those things can be random game to game. They are also last in the B1G in penalty yardage and red zone defense.

I think the major factor to getting the win will be to get on them early and then have the amped crowd get all over them. Make it seem hopeless. Then have Brian Gaia run in a touchdown late.

 

[rohrmd9]

We have to run the ball with SB to be effective with the passing game. My concern is what happened to our running game against Indiana. If MSU sees that, and they already did, then they will do what Indiana did, put two LB's directly over center and stop SB in his tracks on the ROP. None of our OL blocked the Indiana LB's, the virtually went untouched the entire game.

End result, SB had a 1.8 yard rushing average for the game, for something like 38 yards.

Yea, well hopefully the coaching staff will also recognize this possibility and have some variations on first downs...like fake it to SB and then with two LBs over the center, the middle of the field becomes wide open for the TE or a WR running a short cross route. Burn them with that a few times and those LBs will have to ease off the line a bit.

 

[Zenophile]

Then have Brian Gaia run in a touchdown late.

 

[BobPSU92]

"...how do you see the match-ups?"

From my seats in section EB!

Okay, okay....lame, I know, but I couldn't resist.

With my eyes!

 

[bkmtnittany1]

Yea, well hopefully the coaching staff will also recognize this possibility and have some variations on first downs...like fake it to SB and then with two LBs over the center, the middle of the field becomes wide open for the TE or a WR running a short cross route. Burn them with that a few times and those LBs will have to ease off the line a bit.

What the heck do you know about FB?

 

[rohrmd9]

What the heck do you know about FB?

Ya okay buddy...I can coach just as well from my arm-chair as the next poster!

 

[bjf1991]

We have to run the ball with SB to be effective with the passing game. My concern is what happened to our running game against Indiana. If MSU sees that, and they already did, then they will do what Indiana did, put two LB's directly over center and stop SB in his tracks on the ROP. None of our OL blocked the Indiana LB's, the virtually went untouched the entire game.

End result, SB had a 1.8 yard rushing average for the game, for something like 38 yards.

If MSU plays that style of defense against the PSU sets........it will be the first time they have done it all year

So.....I'm thinking......unlikely

(especially with so many young guys filling in for injured guys)

 

[bkmtnittany1]

Ya okay buddy...I can coach just as well from my arm-chair as the next poster!

Maybe better!!!! Have a great holiday...

 

[ga.lion]

If anyone here is familiar with msu's strengths and weaknesses, please share how you see the match-ups -- offense, defense, special teams. Where do you expect Penn State to excel? Where will Penn State struggle? In what areas does msu concern you?

If Penn State doesn't have a turnover nightmare our offense should be too much for their offense.
Our defense due to the line rotations will get stronger as the game goes on and should pressure their QB who isn't of the skill Indiana's QB was. Obviously the OL will have their hands full with the MSU d-line but we will hit them for some big plays in this game. 30-16 sounds pretty good to me

 

[JoeLion]

Yea, well hopefully the coaching staff will also recognize this possibility and have some variations on first downs...like fake it to SB and then with two LBs over the center, the middle of the field becomes wide open for the TE or a WR running a short cross route. Burn them with that a few times and those LBs will have to ease off the line a bit.

Trace was not pulling the handoff and running with the ball against Indiana. He appears healthy and if they are stacking the middle with LBs he may find some room to run around the edges. Just a thought!

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

Best comparisons are the Conf-Only Stats as both PSU and MSU play a b1g East Division Sched.....and we're 8 games deep in a 9 game Conf Season....

To wit....MSU has a poor Run Defense - 10th in the Conf giving up 178 rushing yards per b1g contest to-date. However, MSU has a very good Pass Defense giving up only 183 passing yards per b1g game - albeit, a fairly high-risk pass defense that features a lot of man coverage as evidenced by their very poor TDs surrendered to INTs gained ratio (12 TDs to only 6 INTs or a 2-to-1 ratio of TDs surrendered vs INTs. Their 12 TDs surrendered is also pretty poor on an absolute basis being tied for the 9th/10th most TDs surrendered in b1g play only Indiana (13), Minny (13), Purdue (14) and Rutgers (15) surrendered more.). Given the above combination, MSU is very middle of the road in terms of "Total Defense" (i.e., avg yards per b1g game surrendered) at 7th place in the Conference surrendering 361 yards per b1g game - however, and it's a big however, they are bottom-half defense in YPP (average yards given up per snap) and TDs allowed, which are often a better barometer of how good the defense really is - MSU tied for 9th/10th with 5.4 YPP allowed and was 9th in TDs allowed, 25, in b1g play.

IOW, MSU's defense is not as good as the "Total Defense" numbers would suggest - they're somewhat similar to Iowa's defense in this regard.

OTOH, PSU's offense ranks 3rd in Scoring Offense (36 PPG), 3rd in Total Offense (441 YPG) and 3rd in Rushing Offense (217 YPG) in b1g play. Clear advantage to PSU albeit dependent on whether PSU is down 0, 1 or 2 starting OL which we won't know until game-time.

On the other side of the ball, PSU's Defense ranks 4th in YPP surrendered at only 4.8 YPP in b1g play, which is a very, very good number (anything under 5.0 is very good - 5.5 is about the "national average") - the three defenses in front of PSU in b1g play are scUM at 3.9 YPP allowed, daO$U at 4.4 YPP and Wisconsin at 4.6 YPP. The "median" stat for the entire conference is 5.2 (Iowa and Indiana) - the worst 4 are 5.5 (ILL), 6.2 (UMd), 6.6 (Buttgers) and 7.0 (PurDon't). So as you can see, PSU's 4.8 YPP Defense is very, very good, while MSU's 5.4 YPP Defense is very "Ill-noise like".... MSU's offense, led by their running game, is top-half coming in 5th (416 ypg) in b1g play, but their "Scoring Offense" is very average coming in 7th at 25 ppg. I give the advantage to PSU's Defense which has played better and better virtually every week of the season.

PSU also holds the advantage on Special Teams and "intangibles" imho.....so they're you have it, a clean sweep:

• PSU OFF has advantage over MSU DEF (assuming we are only down 1 starting OL)
• PSU DEF has advantage over MSU OFF
• Advantage to PSU's Special Teams, and finally
• Advantage to PSU on "intangibles" as PSU clearly has "more to play for" and they're playing @ The Beav where PSU is 6-0 this year (including a win over #2 daO$U and a blowout over Iowa) and 11-1 over the past two seasons to-date.

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

Best comparisons are the Conf-Only Stats as both PSU and MSU play a b1g East Division Sched.....and we're 8 games deep in a 9 game Conf Season....

To wit....MSU has a poor Run Defense - 10th in the Conf giving up 178 rushing yards per b1g contest to-date. However, MSU has a very good Pass Defense giving up only 183 passing yards per b1g game - albeit, a fairly high-risk pass defense that features a lot of man coverage as evidenced by their very poor TDs surrendered to INTs gained ratio (12 TDs to only 6 INTs or a 2-to-1 ratio of TDs surrendered vs INTs. Their 12 TDs surrendered is also pretty poor on an absolute basis being tied for the 9th/10th most TDs surrendered in b1g play only Indiana (13), Minny (13), Purdue (14) and Rutgers (15) surrendered more.). Given the above combination, MSU is very middle of the road in terms of "Total Defense" (i.e., avg yards per b1g game surrendered) at 7th place in the Conference surrendering 361 yards per b1g game - however, and it's a big however, they are bottom-half defense in YPP (average yards given up per snap) and TDs allowed, which are often a better barometer of how good the defense really is - MSU tied for 9th/10th with 5.4 YPP allowed and was 9th in TDs allowed, 25, in b1g play.

IOW, MSU's defense is not as good as the "Total Defense" numbers would suggest - they're somewhat similar to Iowa's defense in this regard.

OTOH, PSU's offense ranks 3rd in Scoring Offense (36 PPG), 3rd in Total Offense (441 YPG) and 3rd in Rushing Offense (217 YPG) in b1g play. Clear advantage to PSU albeit dependent on whether PSU is down 0, 1 or 2 starting OL which we won't know until game-time.

On the other side of the ball, PSU's Defense ranks 4th in YPP surrendered at only 4.8 YPP in b1g play, which is a very, very good number (anything under 5.0 is very good - 5.5 is about the "national average") - the three defenses in front of PSU in b1g play are scUM at 3.9 YPP allowed, daO$U at 4.4 YPP and Wisconsin at 4.6 YPP. The "median" stat for the entire conference is 5.2 (Iowa and Indiana) - the worst 4 are 5.5 (ILL), 6.2 (UMd), 6.6 (Buttgers) and 7.0 (PurDon't). So as you can see, PSU's 4.8 YPP Defense is very, very good, while MSU's 5.4 YPP Defense is very "Ill-noise like".... MSU's offense, led by their running game, is top-half coming in 5th (416 ypg) in b1g play, but their "Scoring Offense" is very average coming in 7th at 25 ppg. I give the advantage to PSU's Defense which has played better and better virtually every week of the season.

PSU also holds the advantage on Special Teams and "intangibles" imho.....so they're you have it, a clean sweep:

• PSU OFF has advantage over MSU DEF (assuming we are only down 1 starting OL)
• PSU DEF has advantage over MSU OFF
• Advantage to PSU's Special Teams, and finally
• Advantage to PSU on "intangibles" as PSU clearly has "more to play for" and they're playing @ The Beav where PSU is 6-0 this year (including a win over #2 daO$U and a blowout over Iowa) and 11-1 over the past two seasons to-date.

Some other very important statistics in highly comparable b1g schedule play:

• PSU t2nd in Turnover Margin @ +6 -- MSU 11th @ -4.
• MSU 14th in Penalties against (7 per game for 62.1 yards) -- PSU 6th (just over 5 per game for 45.6 yards).
• PSU 3rd in "Sacks By" with 23 (1 behind scUM & Minny @ 24) -- MSU 14th, dead last, with only 7.
• PSU 8th in "Sacks Against" with 16 (three tied @ 5th with 15 including O$U, Wisco and Indy) -- MSU right behind PSU in 9th with 18 sacks allowed.

Pretty clear that PSU holds a pretty significant advantage across the board statistically and it would be a very tall order for MSU to pull the upset @ The Beav (I give them a punchers chance @home, but find it far fetched that they are going to overcome all these disadvantages with the additional significant disadvantage of having to play @ The Beav which is one of the most difficult road venues in the entire country - especially with the way PSU plays there and has come-on in the 2nd-Half of the season!!!).

 

[PSUFBFAN]

Michigan State's current starting defensive front consists of 3 freshmen and a sophomore....their best defensive lineman, Malik McDowell has missed the last two weeks with an ankle injury. His status for this week's game is uncertain....even if he's back, his ankle injury may prevent him from being fully effective.

Looks like somebody actually did some homework instead of just pulling out the cliches about "they are talented" - nice job. In addition, to the freshmen you outlined, they have a true freshman starting in the defensive backfield. They have a couple of very good players at linebacker and defensive back, but are clearly in trouble along the line.

They have had quite a number of injuries on both sides of the ball throughout the year.

There is a reason they are 3-8 and not 10-1 or 9-2 as in previous years. They are simply not as good as previous years and I would be surprised if they "put it altogether" this Saturday.

 

[PSU87]

Not really a "match up" but they are 0Fer in BIG road games including losing to bottom dwelling Illinois and a pretty mediocre Maryland team.
Hopefully The Beav offers a little bit more intimidating environment than Illinois. Maybe they just aren't a good road team.

 

[Eurotrash1]

Sell out to stop the run, their qb stinks.

 

[Judge Smails]

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

Thought this excerpt from Coach Franklin's PC today was highly relevant to this weekend's game:

87 total yards. 50 total plays. Of the 50 total plays, 11 were minus yardage plays in the game. You look at us, what we've been doing, stopping the run here recently, Purdue 1.8 yards per carry, Iowa 1.2 yards, Indiana 2.7, Rutgers 1.2. When you can make people one-dimensional, that's going to be important this week. That's going to help you.