PSU's path to B1G title

[diggerpup]

Time for some math.

Ohio St 117
Penn St 98.5


PLACEMENT POINTS
1st place: 16 points
2nd place: 12 points
3rd place: 10 points
4th place: 9 points
5th place: 7 points
6th place: 6 points
7th place: 4 points
8th place: 3 points


Consolation bracket advancement: 1/2 point.

Let's look at OSU early session.

Buckeyes have two 7th place matches, 125 Rodriguez vs Purdue Thorton and 165 Burcher vs NW Sebastian. Let's say Onio St splits. 1 point earned.

Pletcher will beat Diehl, but most likely lose vs the McCrystal / Thorn winner. 3.5 points earned. (6th to 4th)

Ohio St probably heads into the finals at 121.5

------

Jimmy has Cole Martin for 7th. Jimmy already majored Martin 15-3. I'll call Jimmy winning, and a MD is possible. 1 point earned.

Joseph faces Wanzek, already beating him 7-4. To be conservative, let's say Joseph loses a close one to Issac Jordan, although I like VJ to win. 3.5 points earned.

Bo will go on a tear to take 3rd. He will major Emery or worse, and beat the winner of Dudley v Jackson. 4 pts + 0.5 + 1 bonus = 5.5 points earned. Bo could also pin as we know.

McCutcheon will beat Robertson and most likely lose to Studebaker. 3.5 points earned.

Nevills will take a similar path as Bo. He will bonus R. Gross and defeat Jenson. Keep in mind Nevills pinned Jenson in the dual. Let's call 5.5 points for Nevills, but it could be slightly more with a pin.

That gets PSU to 98.5 + 19 = 117.5 heading into finals, with the deficit about 4 pts (121.5 v 117.5)

Things don't always go as scripted, but this should be close.

My theoretical 4 point deficit could be even smaller if we get a major from Jimmy or a pin somewhere from Nickal & Nevills.

Now assume Tomasello and Snyder win their finals, but the Buckeyes don't have any locks vs Sammy Brooks & Brett Pfarr. And the way NaTo has not dominated, I think Clark has a 40/60 shot vs NaTo.

Zain & Nolf will both take care of business and earn at least 1 bonus point in the process. Hopefully 2 or 2.5 bonus between the two.

The tournament team championship could very well come down to Bo Jordan v Mark Hall.

I like our chances tomorrow. A lot has to break right, but I like our chances.

 

[21Guns]

Good post.

But you're reaching.

Reload, get Nick Suriano well, and win in St Louis, screw this crap.

 

[matter7172]

I said it before - it's a Hail Mary, but Hail Marys, despite their unlikeliness, have occurred.

 

[PSUAllTheWay]

I'm much more interested in how the team responds today than if we win this tournament or not. Our guys need to dig deep and come out firing. Need to set the tone for St. Louis all day today.

 

[Pennstate1985]

I said it before - it's a Hail Mary, but Hail Marys, despite their unlikeliness, have occurred.

Actually sounds like a Hall Mary to me

 

[James P. Whitters III]

Good analysis of the chances. A healthy NS and PSU would still be in the drivers seat. A healthy Cortez to go along with that and it isn't even close. I would still give PSU a better than 50% chance of winning the NCAA without NS, but if he can contribute even a 7/8th place finish on the hobbled ankle it would jump to 80% in my mind. Lets see how the team responds today. I think momentum can be built from a strong backside today even if tosu wins the team title. The BIG is an entirely different animal than the NCAA. I would still bet anyone Bo scores more points at NCAA than Martin. I also think NN scores more than Micah,Moore or Pletcher. A guy like Cenzo is way more valuable in a tournament where the best 4 are not all together in a small format. The balance within the weight classes shifts the scoring quite a bit when comparing the 2. Nato looks more vulnerable than I would have guessed and his run to a title is certainly not a sure thing. Okie State is wrestling a dual meet in the big 12 finals, so they might get an undeserved seeding boost to help themselves a bit. 3 horse race with PSU still the favorite no matter today's results.

 

[caliPSUfan]

I think that's a pretty fair and well thought out analysis from digger! Sad that some are still on the ledge...I wanted to post last night but didn't want to add to the drama. I'm looking at things like digger right now (conservative but realistic) and I think this is still up for grabs.

I'm excited to root for our boys again today! Our worst case scenario will have us as 2nd in B1G without our starting 125 and 133 with still a great chance at a title run in two weeks - most fan bases would kill for that!

WE ARE!

 

[horraybeer]

There you go. That's it. Troll the pot.

WidespreadBS trolls the Iowa faithful over on HR. I see the disease has spread to BWI as well.

 

[Ian]

It's easy, win all of their 12 matches, today, and they are the champs! That's 92 placement points without bonus if I understand the points chart. Also includes 2 wins over Buckeye wrestlers.

 

[johnstownsteel]

It's easy, win all of their 12 matches, today, and they are the champs! That's 92 placement points without bonus if I understand the points chart. Also includes 2 wins over Buckeye wrestlers.

im pretty sure we can't possibly get 92 points more points from here on out.

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

Good post.

But you're reaching.

Reload, get Nick Suriano well, and win in St Louis, screw this crap.

Huh? Are you suggesting that the team should "give up"? Not happening, this team will go out and try to earn every team point they can on the mat today and this thing is not over.

 

[nitlion6]

im pretty sure we can't possibly get 92 points more points from here on out.

PSU wrestling club is great. Math and effort not necessary. Max PSU can finish with is 153.5 (12 wins with falls).

 

[Ian]

I stand corrected. That's the max points you can get for placement without bonus. Not additional. Appreciate the correction.

Nevertheless, win all twelve matches and it works but will be very close.

 

[LemonPie]

Should he make it to the 3/4 match, Cutch needs to choose neutral like he did against Weigel

 

[nitlion6]

I stand corrected. That's the max points you can get for placement without bonus. Nit additional. Appreciate the correction.

Nevertheless, win all twelve matches and it works but will be very close.

Win all 12 without bonus, 129.5 that will make it very close. Win all 12 and score bonus where you might expect to and all the nay sayers will be on here telling everybody Saturday was just part of the plan.

 

[Ian]

That's doable Nitlion6. O$U would lose two of those matches. Need their Martin and Moore to lose, too!

 

[21Guns]

Huh? Are you suggesting that the team should "give up"? Not happening, this team will go out and try to earn every team point they can on the mat today and this thing is not over.

Actually, yeah, you are right.

 

[matter7172]

I don't want to jinx anything but this is starting to feel like 2011 all over again. Seemingly out of things with a bad semi's and then almost everything falling in place on the second day, especially the medal matches. Jimmy's 7/8 loss really didn't hurt that much. The most he could have added was 1 point, I believe.

 

[Cali_Nittany]

I don't want to jinx anything but this is starting to feel like 2011 all over again. Seemingly out of things with a bad semi's and then almost everything falling in place on the second day, especially the medal matches. Jimmy's 7/8 loss really didn't hurt that much. The most he could have added was 1 point, I believe.

1 point w/o bonus

 

[matter7172]

1 point w/o bonus

Don't know why I thought it was 1/2 point advancement.

 

[dsites52]

While I don't prescribe to the point that this tournament doesn't matter, I do agree with the fact that if we have to trade national title for B1G title, the answer is obvious. I am less concerned about winning than I am to see how the boys in blue respond. So far, apart from Jimmy, things look very good for the good guys wrestling well through this day which will go a long way in 2 weeks.

 

[Cali_Nittany]

Remaining bucks
Nato vs Clark
MJordan vs Zain
BJordan vs Hall
Martin vs Brooks
Moore vs Pfarr
Snyder vs Medberry
Pletcher vs McChrystal (3rd)

That could realistically go anywhere from 1-6 to 6-1. Clark beating Nato would be a great start and could set the tone.

 

[Cali_Nittany]

Don't know why I thought it was 1/2 point advancement.

I believe the 1/2 advancement was only for the consi semis

 

[matter7172]

I believe the 1/2 advancement was only for the consi semis

And I didn't read carefully enough above.