Rank the current #1 guys at each weight by probability to win a title

[Pennstate1985]

I have Zain, Nolf, Snyder, and Gross as prohibitive favorites to win titles this year, either due to their individual greatness and/or lack of competitive strength at the weight class. Doesn't mean they are standing on the podium already, but I like their chances. I'd ranked these 4 weights in order of likelihood to win as:

285
149
157
133

As for the remainder of weights, I'd rank them as follows from most likely for the current #1 to win the title to least likely.

184 Two horse race imo. PD3 could make it interesting, but the longer he's out, the less likely
197 Moore is the cream of the crop right now, but his wins this year show weakness to me
174 Zahid imo has earned the #1 ranking. Despite that, both Hall and Bo can win the title
165 Cenzo and Imar are the class of this weight, although not counting out Massa
125 Suriano is a great wrestler, but so is Cruz, Lee, and Nato. This is a dogfight weight
141 Meredith is of equal talent with Jack, Yianni, and Heil. Any could win.


https://www.flowrestling.org/rankings/6031577-ncaa-rankings-2017-18/27008-125-nato-detonated

 

[Ban Basketball]

I have Zain, Nolf, Snyder, and Gross as prohibitive favorites to win titles this year, either due to their individual greatness and/or lack of competitive strength at the weight class. Doesn't mean they are standing on the podium already, but I like their chances. I'd ranked these 4 weights in order of likelihood to win as:

285
149
157
133

As for the remainder of weights, I'd rank them as follows from most likely for the current #1 to win the title to least likely.

184 Two horse race imo. PD3 could make it interesting, but the longer he's out, the less likely
197 Moore is the cream of the crop right now, but his wins this year show weakness to me
174 Zahid imo has earned the #1 ranking. Despite that, both Hall and Bo can win the title
165 Cenzo and Imar are the class of this weight, although not counting out Massa
125 Suriano is a great wrestler, but so is Cruz, Lee, and Nato. This is a dogfight weight
141 Meredith is of equal talent with Jack, Yianni, and Heil. Any could win.


https://www.flowrestling.org/rankings/6031577-ncaa-rankings-2017-18/27008-125-nato-detonated

Downey is only going to "make it interesting" by self-promoting the heck out of himself and the circus that goes along with his tribe.

Yeah, he's good, has a super good chance of being an All-American, but don't let him or his mouthpiece Dad dupe you into thinking he's beating Martin and especially Nickal.

Sorry that I didn't follow your instructions, but I'm really tiring of hearing how that clown has "relevancy" to win a title.

 

[Ban Basketball]

And, next time I won't hold back.

 

[4INSBU]

I have Zain, Nolf, Snyder, and Gross as prohibitive favorites to win titles this year, either due to their individual greatness and/or lack of competitive strength at the weight class. Doesn't mean they are standing on the podium already, but I like their chances. I'd ranked these 4 weights in order of likelihood to win as:

285
149
157
133

As for the remainder of weights, I'd rank them as follows from most likely for the current #1 to win the title to least likely.

184 Two horse race imo. PD3 could make it interesting, but the longer he's out, the less likely
197 Moore is the cream of the crop right now, but his wins this year show weakness to me
174 Zahid imo has earned the #1 ranking. Despite that, both Hall and Bo can win the title
165 Cenzo and Imar are the class of this weight, although not counting out Massa
125 Suriano is a great wrestler, but so is Cruz, Lee, and Nato. This is a dogfight weight
141 Meredith is of equal talent with Jack, Yianni, and Heil. Any could win.


https://www.flowrestling.org/rankings/6031577-ncaa-rankings-2017-18/27008-125-nato-detonated

Agree with everything except Bo at 174. Don't see him getting through both Hall & Zahid.

 

[James P. Whitters III]

I watched PD3 up close (when he wan't injured/scared) and never saw these flashes of NC skill he is supposed to posses. The HR board in corroboration with the PD clan have perpetuated this myth in typical HR delusional style.
You would look long and hard to find a post about PD3 having the skill set needed to win a title from anybody other than a PD clan member prior to his flirtation with Iowa.

Last year PD3 was declaring himself a Hodge candidate early in the year, and even the most rabid of ISU fans understood he wasn't in that stratosphere as a wrestler. HR mocked him relentlessly and even named him McRib. This guy has AA potential for certain, but 5-6 place would be a very favorable outcome.

 

[Pennstate1985]

Downey is only going to "make it interesting" by self-promoting the heck out of himself and the circus that goes along with his tribe.

Yeah, he's good, has a super good chance of being an All-American, but don't let him or his mouthpiece Dad dupe you into thinking he's beating Martin and especially Nickal.

Sorry that I didn't follow your instructions, but I'm really tiring of hearing how that clown has "relevancy" to win a title.

I called 184 a two horse race. That said, anyone at the dance can win. I certainly don't dismiss PD3 or Aboundar.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

I watched PD3 up close (when he wan't injured/scared) and never saw these flashes of NC skill he is supposed to posses. The HR board in corroboration with the PD clan have perpetuated this myth in typical HR delusional style.
You would look long and hard to find a post about PD3 having the skill set needed to win a title from anybody other than a PD clan member prior to his flirtation with Iowa.

Last year PD3 was declaring himself a Hodge candidate early in the year, and even the most rabid of ISU fans understood he wasn't in that stratosphere as a wrestler. HR mocked him relentlessly and even named him McRib. This guy has AA potential for certain, but 5-6 place would be a very favorable outcome.

Thank you (and Ban). Exactly. It’s like some lie that becomes the truth if stated enough times.

He’s a 1-time AA with some excellent Freestyle chops, but let’s see him in a 7 minute folkstyle match at this weight. He gasses in shorter freestyle matches.

 

[Pennstate1985]

Agree with everything except Bo at 174. Don't see him getting through both Hall & Zahid.

I give Zahid a 50% chance to win, with Mark at 35% and Bo at 15%.

 

[Pennstate1985]

I watched PD3 up close (when he wan't injured/scared) and never saw these flashes of NC skill he is supposed to posses. The HR board in corroboration with the PD clan have perpetuated this myth in typical HR delusional style.
You would look long and hard to find a post about PD3 having the skill set needed to win a title from anybody other than a PD clan member prior to his flirtation with Iowa.

Last year PD3 was declaring himself a Hodge candidate early in the year, and even the most rabid of ISU fans understood he wasn't in that stratosphere as a wrestler. HR mocked him relentlessly and even named him McRib. This guy has AA potential for certain, but 5-6 place would be a very favorable outcome.

I don't disagree that PD3 may be overrated by HR, but he isn't a ham sandwich either. My personal opinion is that he is just as likely to finish off the podium if he wrestles at all. Thus my comment about a two horse race.

 

[Just another PSU Fan]

285 / 149 / 157 / 133 --- stick to #1 CHALK

174 - Zahid has looked like he's separated himself
197 - Moore is a very talented 197'r ... he goes like a 41lbr! I like his style
184 - 2 Horse Race, even today I'm 50/50 ... can't choose?!?!
141 - If it's Heil, I'm taking a bathroom break
165 - Beginning of year, I thought 3 dudes -- it's down to 2, IMar/Cenzo
125 - Suriano over Nato / Lee / Cruz / Lizak / Picc ...

team race, I have it dead even 138pts tOSU/PSU!

 

[Ban Basketball]

I don't disagree that PD3 may be overrated by HR, but he isn't a ham sandwich either. My personal opinion is that he is just as likely to finish off the podium if he wrestles at all. Thus my comment about a two horse race.

I'll agree with you on that. I've seen him go enough times in folkstyle to know that he definitely is very good, especially in upper body (take note Nickal), as his Dad toots his horn about.

I can see him placing as high as third, but I don't see him beating Martin, and especially Nickal, to earn that third.

 

[nerfstate]

The one data point on PD3 that gives pause is his win over Dean at trials. That's a different sport though, and Gabe did not seem at his best. Still, pause....

 

[ClarkstonMark]

I would put Zain above Snyder.

 

[Pennstate1985]

I would put Zain above Snyder.

Thought about it, but frankly no one at heavy is sniffing Snyder on their very best day barring injury. Zain has a reasonable amount of competition imo. That said, you could pick those two and Nolf in any order I suspect.

 

[bigbopper1985]

Ranking from most confident to least confident

1. 285 - Snyder
2. 149 - Zain
3. 157 - Nolf
4. 133 - Gross
5. 197 - Moore
6. 184 - Nickal
7. 141 - Meredith
8. 174 - Zahid
9. 125 - Suriano
10. 165 - Cenzo

I'm very confident in 1-5. Myles is my only concern for Bo at 184. 141 is stacked. Zahid over Hall and Imar over Cenzo seem realistic but I have faith in Cael in getting them ready. Nick could very well win, especially if Nato struggles with weight.

 

[NoVa Lion]

Ranking from most confident to least confident

1. 285 - Snyder
2. 149 - Zain
3. 157 - Nolf
4. 133 - Gross
5. 197 - Moore
6. 184 - Nickal
7. 141 - Meredith
8. 174 - Zahid
9. 125 - Suriano
10. 165 - Cenzo

I'm very confident in 1-5. Myles is my only concern for Bo at 184. 141 is stacked. Zahid over Hall and Imar over Cenzo seem realistic but I have faith in Cael in getting them ready. Nick could very well win, especially if Nato struggles with weight.

I wouldn't put Snyder #1. I think Coon has a chance, probably only 1-2% chance to win but still, a chance. I don't see anyone having a chance to beat Zain or Nolf so IMHO they are bout #1A, with Snyder #3.

 

[PSUer1989]

I just hope all of our guys are healthy and then I will take our chances from there...

 

[James P. Whitters III]

285 / 149 / 157 / 133 --- stick to #1 CHALK

174 - Zahid has looked like he's separated himself
197 - Moore is a very talented 197'r ... he goes like a 41lbr! I like his style
184 - 2 Horse Race, even today I'm 50/50 ... can't choose?!?!
141 - If it's Heil, I'm taking a bathroom break
165 - Beginning of year, I thought 3 dudes -- it's down to 2, IMar/Cenzo
125 - Suriano over Nato / Lee / Cruz / Lizak / Picc ...

team race, I have it dead even 138pts tOSU/PSU!

I think he and Hall are a coin flip. They have met twice and each won a squeaker. 2/nd and 3/rd day weigh ins should favor Hall by the eye test.

 

[El-Jefe]

I give Zahid a 50% chance to win, with Mark at 35% and Bo at 15%.

Hall's chances are hindered because he lacks a variety of attacks.

 

[Dogwelder]

I think Cenzo should be higher. He controlled IMar the last time they met, and Massa has faded.

 

[Just another PSU Fan]

I give Zahid a 50% chance to win, with Mark at 35% and Bo at 15%.

Bo has ZERO chance