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RBY vs Spencer Lee.

creamery freak

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Jul 26, 2014
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Thought it was a good time to resurrect an old thread during Iowa week. It makes sense from a team standpoint for Iowa. HR would dubb this match ' the Staller vs The Mauler' . It would be fireworks to see the quickness of RBY against the strength of Spencer, who is wrestling at a high level. What say you?
 
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Thought it was a good time to resurrect an old thread during Iowa week. It makes sense from a team standpoint for Iowa. HR would dubb this match ' the Staller vs The Mauler' . It would be fireworks to see the quickness of RBY against the strength of Spencer, who is wrestling at a high level. What say you?
It actually doesn't make sense from a team standpoint for Iowa. It would if they weren't shirting Ayala because he would be able to hold the 125 points and let Spencer go for it at 133, but their other 125 JVs aren't a guarantee (or even a favorite) to beat Steen, so it's actually to the advantage of Penn State if Spencer bumps up.

Regardless, I think everyone in the wrestling world wants to see it if the teams and guys want to make it happen anyway.
 
Thought it was a good time to resurrect an old thread during Iowa week. It makes sense from a team standpoint for Iowa. HR would dubb this match ' the Staller vs The Mauler' . It would be fireworks to see the quickness of RBY against the strength of Spencer, who is wrestling at a high level. What say you?
I'd be thrilled see it happen, but don't think Spencer will move up to do it. The cut would be bad for RBY. I was wearing a PSU wrestling hoodie while shopping at Kroger. A young guy from the meat counter called over to me and asked if I thought Spencer would come up to wrestle RBY. There's excitement everywhere about the potential for a match. I'm in Fishers, IN and even my wife wants to see RBY against anyone.

She was looking all over for me in the store, but I escaped any wrath because I was talking PSU wrestling. When Penn State wrestles, she knows I'm in my PSU gear, In a huge recliner and she brings snacks down and joins me. Living the life!

WE ARE Winning!
 
It actually doesn't make sense from a team standpoint for Iowa.

This.

Outside of 25 and 33, Iowa has to win 4 matches. A Spencer fall at 25(highly likely) and keeping PSU to 3 or fewer bonus with no fall(very doable)is the clearest path to victory.

Bump Spencer, and even if he wins, the bonus point advantage for Iowa is gone. Barring crazy results at whomever Iowa puts at 25 and the Spencer/RBY match, Iowa now has to win 6 matches.

Conclusion:

Iowa has to win 4 matches outside of 25&33. Most likely way Iowa wins the dual is to keep Spencer at 25 and get the fall.


Would love to see Spencer vs RBY, but not right now. NLWC and HWC should set up an event after the season is over. Could get some amazing matches and make a killing on the ppv sales.
 
I can’t think of a more fun matchup with completely contrasting styles. RBY is too quick and difficult to takedown but if Spencer gets his hands on him he could do damage. RBY would need to wrestle from space the first period and be very selective on his attacks. I would think he wouldn’t go under Spencer especially because he seems to have the advantage from neutral. Getting the match into the 3rd RBY should have a definite advantage in the gas tank where he can push and Spencer has shown he fades. I can see RBY getting multiple tds in the 3rd if he needs them and winning a close 4-3 type of match. Would be so much fun but it doesn’t make any sense for Iowa. Steen would be the favorite against their backups and Spencer losing to RBY hurts his legacy and would cost him the hodge while a win would be a feather in his cap but wouldn’t really move him up the ladder in the goat conversation. If Spencer stays at 125 the dual score is likely 6-3 or 6-4 Iowa after the first 2 bouts but if he moves up it’s either likely 3-3 or 6-3 PSU. I wish it would happen as a wrestling fan but I put the odds at about 1%
 
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I can’t think of a more fun matchup with completely contrasting styles. RBY is too quick and difficult to takedown but if Spencer gets his hands on him he could do damage. RBY would need to wrestle from space the first period and be very selective on his attacks. I would think he wouldn’t go under Spencer especially because he seems to have the advantage from neutral. Getting the match into the 3rd RBY should have a definite advantage in the gas tank where he can push and Spencer has shown he fades. I can see RBY getting multiple tds in the 3rd if he needs them and winning a close 4-3 type of match. Would be so much fun but it doesn’t make any sense for Iowa. Steen would be the favorite against their backups and Spencer losing to RBY hurts his legacy and would cost him the hodge while a win would be a feather in his cap but wouldn’t really move him up the ladder in the goat conversation. If Spencer stays at 125 the dual score is likely 6-3 or 6-4 Iowa after the first 2 bouts but if he moves up it’s either likely 3-3 or 6-3 PSU. I wish it would happen as a wrestling fan but I put the odds at about 1%
I disagree that losing to RBY by bumping up a class to face a #1 ranked 2-time defending champion at a higher weight would either cost Spencer the Hodge or hurt his legacy. If he loses then goes back to 125 and pins his way through the rest of the year (and why not - he's pinned 4 of the top 10 in the last 2 weeks), he's still the Hodge favorite. On the other hand, if he goes up and wins, it'll be a legend status win.

There are lots of reasons this won't happen, and I agree it's not very likely at all, but Lee's Hodge chances and legacy are not among them. There is only upside for him there.
 
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I'd be thrilled see it happen, but don't think Spencer will move up to do it. The cut would be bad for RBY. I was wearing a PSU wrestling hoodie while shopping at Kroger. A young guy from the meat counter called over to me and asked if I thought Spencer would come up to wrestle RBY. There's excitement everywhere about the potential for a match. I'm in Fishers, IN and even my wife wants to see RBY against anyone.

She was looking all over for me in the store, but I escaped any wrath because I was talking PSU wrestling. When Penn State wrestles, she knows I'm in my PSU gear, In a huge recliner and she brings snacks down and joins me. Living the life!

WE ARE Winning!
Are you going down to the IU match? I'll be there.
 
I disagree that losing to RBY by bumping up a class to face a #1 ranked 2-time defending champion at a higher weight would either cost Spencer the Hodge or hurt his legacy. If he loses then goes back to 125 and pins his way through the rest of the year (and why not - he's pinned 4 of the top 10 in the last 2 weeks), he's still the Hodge favorite. On the other hand, if he goes up and wins, it'll be a legend status win.

There are lots of reasons this won't happen, and I agree it's not very likely at all, but Lee's Hodge chances and legacy are not among them. There is only upside for him there.
His Hodge chances aside, I think his legacy would be impacted with a loss to RBY. Even if it is up a weight.

Right now, Spencer (and his legacy) is looking absolutely Bunyan-esque. Brands is saying he's the best wrestler he's ever seen. People already penciling him in for a gold medal in a few years (and some assuming he would have already won one had it not been for health). If he moves up and loses to RBY, all that goes away.

I agree that concern over his Hodge chances and legacy are not why Spencer isn't going to move up a weight class for one dual. But I disagree that there is only upside for him if he did.
 
I’ll be there. I’ll be at the BJC Friday night for Iowa too. No way Spencer moves up. RBY would kick his ass and Spencer knows it. He wants no part of that beat down.

It wouldn't be a beat down that "spencer knows." Spencer not cutting would help him a lot. There wouldn't be a gas tank problem.

Now. It won't happen, but if it did, it would be a close match.
 
His Hodge chances aside, I think his legacy would be impacted with a loss to RBY. Even if it is up a weight.

Right now, Spencer (and his legacy) is looking absolutely Bunyan-esque. Brands is saying he's the best wrestler he's ever seen. People already penciling him in for a gold medal in a few years (and some assuming he would have already won one had it not been for health). If he moves up and loses to RBY, all that goes away.

I agree that concern over his Hodge chances and legacy are not why Spencer isn't going to move up a weight class for one dual. But I disagree that there is only upside for him if he did.
I don't really buy that. It isn't like he is undefeated. He isn't even a one or two loss guy. His legacy is already set as an NCAA wrestler. His international resume is yet to be written.
 
It would be the match of the year. The winner being awarded a Hodge Trophy immediately. Who do I need to talk to, let’s make it happen.
 
Thought it was a good time to resurrect an old thread during Iowa week. It makes sense from a team standpoint for Iowa. HR would dubb this match ' the Staller vs The Mauler' . It would be fireworks to see the quickness of RBY against the strength of Spencer, who is wrestling at a high level. What say you?
Chance of this match happening IMHO is less than zero.
 
If Spencer stays at 125 the dual score is likely 6-3 or 6-4 Iowa after the first 2 bouts but if he moves up it’s either likely 3-3 or 6-3 PSU. I wish it would happen as a wrestling fan but I put the odds at about 1%

Hmmm. This looks like you are a master in common core math to me.

Let's ignore the value Drake has for Iowa 4 years from now, they have no problem recruiting 125s. The value of Drake's shirt is far overstated IMO. Heck with Iowa being 125 central, Drake might not win the spot years down the road. So if they pulled his shirt, and Spencer won vs RBY the math is very compelling for Iowa, so much so, I see this as Iowa's only realistic path to victory. Of the top 6 tossup/competitive matches I see us winning at least 4.

So back to the math. With Spencer at 125 they hit 141 up by 2 points (6-4).

With Drake and Spencer IMO their chances of winning both are slightly better than 50%. Drake most likely bonuses Steen so even if the unthinkable for Iowa happened they enter 141 with a minimum of a (4-3) 1 point lead as opposed to a 2 pointer as noted with the standard lineup.

If Drake bonuses, and Spencer decisions, they enter 141 up by at least (4+3) 7. Heck the Iowa HR faithful think Spencer gets multiple turns vs RBY which could add more.

Do I think they will do it? no.
Is it the best use of Drake's RS? No but if it wins the dual, maybe.
Do I favor Spencer over RBY? In all honesty, yes by a very slight margin say 1/2 a point line.
Will Spencer losing to RBY affect the Hodge race? I think he bonuses out and it is Spencer's either way.

Does the math make a compelling case? Hell yes, ( the potential to add 5 more points) and I stand by the thought that if Spencer wins, it's Iowa's only path to a dual victory. It doesn't guarantee it but opens up the possibility.
 
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Hmmm. This looks like you are a master in common core math to me.

Let's ignore the value Drake has for Iowa 4 years from now, they have no problem recruiting 125s. The value of Drake's shirt is far overstated IMO. Heck with Iowa being 125 central, Drake might not win the spot years down the road. So if they pulled his shirt, and Spencer won vs RBY the math is very compelling for Iowa, so much so, I see this as Iowa's only realistic path to victory. Of the top 6 tossup/competitive matches I see us winning at least 4.

So back to the math. With Spencer at 125 they hit 141 up by 2 points (6-4).

With Drake and Spencer IMO their chances of winning both are slightly better than 50%. Drake most likely bonuses Steen so even if the unthinkable for Iowa happened they enter 141 with a minimum of a (4-3) 1 point lead as opposed to a 2 pointer as noted with the standard lineup.

If Drake bonuses, and Spencer decisions, they enter 141 up by at least (4+3) 7. Heck the Iowa HR faithful think Spencer gets multiple turns vs RBY which could add more.

Do I think they will do it? no.
Is it the best use of Drake's RS? No but if it wins the dual, maybe.
Do I favor Spencer over RBY? In all honesty, yes by a very slight margin day 1/2 a point line.
Will Spencer losing to RBY affect the Hodge race? I think he bonuses out and it is Spencer's either way.

Does the math make a compelling case? Hell yes, ( the potential to add 5 more points) and I stand by the thought that if Spencer wins, it's Iowa's only path to a dual victory. It doesn't guarantee it but opens up the possibility.
extremely bad take. you don't burn a redshirt of your best up and coming wrestler for one match? schriever? sure. he's not actually good. ayala? stupidity.

you're just trying to set up a situation where you can say iowa/spencer are cowards for not bumping when it makes no sense for them to bump.
 
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extremely bad take. you don't burn a redshirt of your best up and coming wrestler for one match? schriever? sure. he's not actually good. ayala? stupidity.

you're just trying to set up a situation where you can say iowa/spencer are cowards for not bumping when it makes no sense for them to bump.
"Best" up and coming wrestler, Drake?

At least you have to admit that isn't true, wasnt he #2 behind Jesuroga by a wide margin until about a month ago when J decided to become a war fighter instead? I am quite confident Iowa has not found their 125 solution for a full 4 years 2023-2027 in Drake.

You also have some strange deranged projection going on here. You introduced the word 'coward' not I. Are you the one that is feeling yellow? In fact I am the guy giving the slight edge to Spencer over RBY, much to the ire of my bretheren here.

Park the outrage, it's getting tiring.
My main point being the "math" supports doing it. That said virtually noone from Flo, to HR, to this board think it will happen.

I did like RBYs offer to do something PPV after the season. He's game, no cowardice there.
 
"Best" up and coming wrestler, Drake?

At least you have to admit that isn't true, wasnt he #2 behind Jesuroga by a wide margin until about a month ago when J decided to become a war fighter instead? I am quite confident Iowa has not found their 125 solution for a full 4 years 2023-2027 in Drake.

You also have some strange deranged projection going on here. You introduced the word 'coward' not I. Are you the one that is feeling yellow? In fact I am the guy giving the slight edge to Spencer over RBY, much to the ire of my bretheren here.

Park the outrage, it's getting tiring.
My main point being the "math" supports doing it. That said virtually noone from Flo, to HR, to this board think it will happen.

I did like RBYs offer to do something PPV after the season. He's game, no cowardice there.
Drake will be at 125 as long as he wants to. Him moving up was only a discussion because it didn't seem likely jesuorga would ever be a 133.
 
Drake will be at 125 as long as he wants to. Him moving up was only a discussion because it didn't seem likely jesuorga would ever be a 133.
Sure. According to half your board acknowledging he's not the long term answer at 125. Why is Lilledahl mentioned all over the place as a must get? Bottom line, Drake's redshirt this year is now being touted by some as having the value of the hope diamond. Not true. It's a pimple on an elephant's ass.

Would I pull a kid's shirt for just one dual or two? Nope. But then again, I am not Tom Brands, and he did the same thing last year. Genious!
 
Sure. According to half your board acknowledging he's not the long term answer at 125. Why is Lilledahl mentioned all over the place as a must get? Bottom line, Drake's redshirt this year is now being touted by some as having the value of the hope diamond. Not true. It's a pimple on an elephant's ass.

Would I pull a kid's shirt for just one dual or two? Nope. But then again, I am not Tom Brands, and he did the same thing last year. Genious!
This is the weirdest wrestling take I've seen in a while.

That Ayala's redshirt is less valuable because people on a message board think another recruit is a "must get".
 
Sure. According to half your board acknowledging he's not the long term answer at 125. Why is Lilledahl mentioned all over the place as a must get? Bottom line, Drake's redshirt this year is now being touted by some as having the value of the hope diamond. Not true. It's a pimple on an elephant's ass.

Would I pull a kid's shirt for just one dual or two? Nope. But then again, I am not Tom Brands, and he did the same thing last year. Genious!

LOL.

Lilledahl is mentioned because a Hawk has to have dreams dammit!

But yeah. Ayala coming in at 125 is definitely SUPPOSED to a shining moment of reloading for the Hawks. Wrestled as a true freshman, qualified for NCAAs, and will enter a weight with no real killers. You can't say it's not true yet - he was pretty highly rated out of high school.

Pull a shirt? Not his. Not happening. Schriever had a lot of input with regards to his shirt being pulled a year ago.
 
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"Best" up and coming wrestler, Drake?

At least you have to admit that isn't true, wasnt he #2 behind Jesuroga by a wide margin until about a month ago when J decided to become a war fighter instead? I am quite confident Iowa has not found their 125 solution for a full 4 years 2023-2027 in Drake.

You also have some strange deranged projection going on here. You introduced the word 'coward' not I. Are you the one that is feeling yellow? In fact I am the guy giving the slight edge to Spencer over RBY, much to the ire of my bretheren here.

Park the outrage, it's getting tiring.
My main point being the "math" supports doing it. That said virtually noone from Flo, to HR, to this board think it will happen.

I did like RBYs offer to do something PPV after the season. He's game, no cowardice there.
Just a minor correction. Drake has 3 years left since he filled in for Spencer last year. Otherwise, you are spot on. If they burn the shirt and put Drake in at 125 Friday, it greatly widens their path to victory. I still don't think they'll do that, though. I think you are minimizing the value of the redshirt a little too much. Ayala is a legit high AA contender, especially in 25/26.
 
I will say this about Drake. I would be happy if he were in blue and white.

Ok, I think I have pushed this topic to it's conclusion. Beyond where we should have gone with it.

If there were a PPV in April, I just might sign up.

Now there are 9 other weights to debate but only 2 more days.
 
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"Best" up and coming wrestler, Drake?

At least you have to admit that isn't true, wasnt he #2 behind Jesuroga by a wide margin until about a month ago when J decided to become a war fighter instead? I am quite confident Iowa has not found their 125 solution for a full 4 years 2023-2027 in Drake.

You also have some strange deranged projection going on here. You introduced the word 'coward' not I. Are you the one that is feeling yellow? In fact I am the guy giving the slight edge to Spencer over RBY, much to the ire of my bretheren here.

Park the outrage, it's getting tiring.
My main point being the "math" supports doing it. That said virtually noone from Flo, to HR, to this board think it will happen.

I did like RBYs offer to do something PPV after the season. He's game, no cowardice there.
Absolutely not behind Jesuroga by a wide margin. They were very similar recruits. Flo had Ayala at 5 and Jesuroga at 7. And the assumption was that Jesuroga would come in and Drake would move to 133 - or vice versa. There was never any projection where he wasn't going to be a starter for the next 3 years.

The "math" does not support it because coaches are judged by postseason performance. An extra year of Ayala scoring major team points at NCAA's (as the Iowa coaches believe he will) is multitudes more valuable than a possible few point swing in one dual meet. You would have a case if Drake still had his redshirt or the 5 match rule applied to him, but it doesn't.

Sure. According to half your board acknowledging he's not the long term answer at 125. Why is Lilledahl mentioned all over the place as a must get? Bottom line, Drake's redshirt this year is now being touted by some as having the value of the hope diamond. Not true. It's a pimple on an elephant's ass.

Would I pull a kid's shirt for just one dual or two? Nope. But then again, I am not Tom Brands, and he did the same thing last year. Genious!
Again, this is not true at all! There is nobody on HR that doesn't think Drake is a part of the future. Lilledahl is mentioned because Iowa now has a hole at 125/133, whichever Drake doesn't man. This isn't rocket science man. The future was Drake/Jesuroga at 125/133 in some combo. Now Jesuroga is gone, so we want another lightweight to replace him. I am personally on the Ben Davino train because I see him as more a 133 than Lilledahl and I think Drake is better as a 125, but would be thrilled with either.

You either have a reading comprehension problem or you're making stuff up to fit your opinion.
 
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Hmmm. This looks like you are a master in common core math to me.

Let's ignore the value Drake has for Iowa 4 years from now, they have no problem recruiting 125s. The value of Drake's shirt is far overstated IMO. Heck with Iowa being 125 central, Drake might not win the spot years down the road. So if they pulled his shirt, and Spencer won vs RBY the math is very compelling for Iowa, so much so, I see this as Iowa's only realistic path to victory. Of the top 6 tossup/competitive matches I see us winning at least 4.

So back to the math. With Spencer at 125 they hit 141 up by 2 points (6-4).

With Drake and Spencer IMO their chances of winning both are slightly better than 50%. Drake most likely bonuses Steen so even if the unthinkable for Iowa happened they enter 141 with a minimum of a (4-3) 1 point lead as opposed to a 2 pointer as noted with the standard lineup.

If Drake bonuses, and Spencer decisions, they enter 141 up by at least (4+3) 7. Heck the Iowa HR faithful think Spencer gets multiple turns vs RBY which could add more.

Do I think they will do it? no.
Is it the best use of Drake's RS? No but if it wins the dual, maybe.
Do I favor Spencer over RBY? In all honesty, yes by a very slight margin say 1/2 a point line.
Will Spencer losing to RBY affect the Hodge race? I think he bonuses out and it is Spencer's either way.

Does the math make a compelling case? Hell yes, ( the potential to add 5 more points) and I stand by the thought that if Spencer wins, it's Iowa's only path to a dual victory. It doesn't guarantee it but opens up the possibility.
So bad. You don’t do that to Ayala unless you want to piss him off. Pulling his shirt for 1 match is a bad use of a top flight kid. You are saying that Drake might not even have a spot in the future?! If I go that route I can say that Drake is going to probably be a national champion but you don’t the chance because he lost a year by wrestling in 1 dual. Even the Brands aren’t dumb enough to do this
 
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I’ll be there. I’ll be at the BJC Friday night for Iowa too. No way Spencer moves up. RBY would kick his ass and Spencer knows it. He wants no part of that beat down.
Excellent. I'm going down with my sons old wrestling coach (who wrestled for IU). Let's meet up before or at the venue.
 
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extremely bad take. you don't burn a redshirt of your best up and coming wrestler for one match? schriever? sure. he's not actually good. ayala? stupidity.

you're just trying to set up a situation where you can say iowa/spencer are cowards for not bumping when it makes no sense for them to bump.
Spencer should have bumped up before the season started.
 
This.

Outside of 25 and 33, Iowa has to win 4 matches. A Spencer fall at 25(highly likely) and keeping PSU to 3 or fewer bonus with no fall(very doable)is the clearest path to victory.

Bump Spencer, and even if he wins, the bonus point advantage for Iowa is gone. Barring crazy results at whomever Iowa puts at 25 and the Spencer/RBY match, Iowa now has to win 6 matches.

Conclusion:

Iowa has to win 4 matches outside of 25&33. Most likely way Iowa wins the dual is to keep Spencer at 25 and get the fall.


Would love to see Spencer vs RBY, but not right now. NLWC and HWC should set up an event after the season is over. Could get some amazing matches and make a killing on the ppv sales.
I have to disagree. The earlier suggestion about Ayala is the one that is the decision. If Spencer does move up, can Iowa win a decision at 125? If they can, then it’s to Iowa’s advantage to move Spencer up.

A) Spencer wins 125 by fall and RBY held to a decision 6-3 Iowa or maybe even 6-6.


B) Spencer moves up. Iowa wins 125 by decision and Spencer wins. Iowa up 6-0 and no RBY to bring the lead back.

C) 125 loses and Spencer wins decision net zero.

D) 125 loses and Spencer loses….yeah…that’s the biggest mess for Iowa.

It’s Iowa’s 125 that matters. Scenario B is rather tasty if you want to win the dual. Ayala is taking a shirt and idk if there are any matches left for him to wrestle. If he did, it definitely makes sense to move Spencer up. Risk. Reward. Great for the sport if us could happen.
 
Spencer Lee isn't going to bump up and risk the Hodge as well as risk a loss in his last match in his home state. He'll beat Steen and then Iowa will lose the next 9 matches.
Won't he wrestle more in Pa when he joins the NLWC. To be the best you have to train with the best.
 
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