Roar's PSU Wrestler Review - Path's to All-American Honors

[RoarLions1]

125: Drew Hildebrandt’s path:

A first round match-up against a wrestler listed as 29-1 sounds like a horrible draw for a 16 seed (Hildebrandt). While surely talented to have a record such as that, Anthony Noto (LH) has feasted on mostly lower ranked guys, much of it at the Clarion Open, Shorty Hitchcock and Mat Town. Best wins are against two NCAA qualifiers; Joey Prata (#19 seed) and Patrick McCormick (#32 seed). Noto did win the MAC Championship. I’ll go with a close Hildebrandt win, low scoring, as it appears both guys are solid defensively.

Next up would be Nick Suriano, unless of course Suriano loses to McCormick or #33 seed Logan Ashton. Looking at Suriano’s bout scores for the season, it doesn’t appear he’s given up a takedown yet…I’ll go chalk and move Hildebrandt to wrestlebacks.

Here’s where I hope he can make some noise. First match on the back-side appears to be one of Brody Teske or Noah Surtin. Teske owns a fall vs Surtin, though maybe Surtin just got caught (). The loser of this bout drops to wrestlebacks and could face Hildebrandt. I’ll add here that a Hildebrandt loss to Noto, and he’ll likely face the Teske v Surtin winner (such is the nature of brackets). Either way, I like Hildebrandt against Surtin more, with the Teske match-up feeling like a toss-up to slight edge Hildebrandt. Note that Drew beat Surtin on his way to a MAC Championship last season and also beat Teske at the NCAA Championships.

Let’s go a Noto win and Surtin win; could be an all-Big Ten consi match-up with the Schroder/McKee loser. Not sure which is preferable, but Schroder handled McKee 8-3 during the season, so let’s go McKee. We all know what happened at B1G’s. Reverse that score and he’s one win from All-American. Could take it one step further, but the permutations are even less known than already analyzed.

More to follow as they're written.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

Not to interrupt your flow, but this thread is always as sweet as Cinnamon Toast. Thanks in advance for the deep dive. Please continue Professor

 

[1AA]

I can't read anymore of this thread. I'm printing brackets and figuring out for myself. If I read Roars it will tilt mine I'm sure😉

 

[RoarLions1]

133: Roman Bravo-Young’s Path:

No. 1 seeds are easier to pick a path. Even with the landmines at each weight class, mostly in later rounds, they will always have an easier route than say a 13 or 16 seed. They also will be significant favorites for at least two rounds, and often three.

RBY gets the 32/33 pigtail winner first, and should win easily. Next is either #16 Josh Koderhandt (NAVY) or #17 Haiden Drury (UVU). Koderhandt is the better of the two. His record is solid, but his schedule weak. One telling data point is a technical fall loss to Ragusin of Michigan, a wrestler RBY handled twice this season. Next up, a third round bout, likely vs the #8 RayVon Foley (MSU)/#9 Michael Colaiocco (PENN) winner. Colaiocco is on a 13-bout win streak and only has two losses, but hasn’t wrestled the caliber of opponents Foley has. Neither guy has wrestled RBY in college. Either way, RBY will be favored. And while RBY should get bonus in round 1 and 2, it is possible but unlikely here. Neither guy has lost by bonus this season. Win here and it is no worse than 6th place and All-American honors.

In the semis, the likely opponent will be #4 Korbin Myers or #5 Austin DeSanto. That is an interesting match-up, Myers only losing to #3 McGee during the season and DeSanto only to the top two seeds, RBY and Fix. RBY has beaten both in the past, DeSanto twice this season and five straight overall, and beat Myers at last year’s NCAA Championship.

Daton Fix (OKST) should be waiting in the finals.

 

[RoarLions1]

141: Nick Lee’s Path:

Lee gets the #32/#33 pigtail winner, surely a bonus point win for Nick. Next up, a match-up with either #16 Quinn Kinner (RID) or #17 Dylan D’Emilio (OHST). Lee wrestled both this season, beating D’Emilio by major decision and Kinner by decision (3 point win). Kinner rode Lee an entire period to keep the score close. If he’s the opponent, I don’t look at that happening again. Either way, this should be a relatively easy win for Lee.

The quarterfinal opponent will surely be one of #9 Allan Hart (MIZZ) or #8 Grant Willits (ORST). Both are solid and won’t be pushovers, though Lee does have a 7-point victory against Willits this season, first bout of the year. That’s ages ago now and may not reflect Willits' progress. Hart is the B12 runner-up, and among his 5 losses are some middle of the road guys (Happel and Smith), and he also lost to #5 Alirez twice. I just don’t see Lee losing here. On to the semis.

#4 Real Woods (STAN) or #5 Andrew Alirez (UNCO) should be the next opponent. Woods’ only loss on the season is to #8 Willits, though he avenged that loss by major decision at the PAC 12 Championships. He also beat Alirez during the season. Woods is talented, no doubt, and could be quicker than Lee, but Lee is a master technician, will stay in contact with Woods and neutralize the quickness edge. Advantage Lee.

I would normally pick #2 Eierman over #3 Rivera as the final’s opponent, but surgery/injury factors muddy the waters. Rivera had his knee cleaned up several weeks ago and Eierman injured his knee at Big Ten’s and will likely be wearing a brace. Hard to tell really, but either will be a worthy finals opponent.

 

[RoarLions1]

149: #13 Beau Bartlett’s Path:

The first round opponent is #20 Colin Realbuto (UNI). Realbuto finished 3rd at the Big 12 Championships, only losing to #9 seed Gfeller. His 15-9 D1 record contains only losses to NCAA qualifiers except an early season loss to Vince Turk (IA). Going transitive for a second, he does have a 2-point win vs Blockus (MINN), a wrestler Bartlett squeaked by at Big Ten’s. It will be close, and won’t be easy, but I’ll go with Bartlett.

Second round gets infinitely tougher assuming the first period win. #4 Sammy Sasso (OHST) will surely be waiting. I know others have mentioned that Bartlett and Sasso have wrestled close in the past (5-3 and 4-2), and I see another close one. Still, Sasso will be the odds-on favorite here, so I’m heading to wrestlebacks, but still hopeful Bartlett can pull off a win here.

Going this route, the second round of wrestlebacks will likely be the #19 Yahya Thomas (NW) / #19 Josh Finesilver (DUKE) loser from round one. Past All-American Thomas gassed badly at the Big Ten Championships, and we know what we’re getting with him. But Bartlett doesn’t wrestle with the pace that will tire Thomas out imo. Expect a close 1-2 point bout if it’s Thomas. Finesilver comes into the tournament with a fabulous overall record, but lost by technical fall to #11 Andonian at the ACC Championship, then forfeited his next bout. I have no idea what his status is. If he’s healthy and loses to Thomas, he’ll be favored over Bartlett. To stay positive, on to round 3 of wrestlebacks.

A familiar opponent should be waiting. Either #5 Kyle Parco (ASU) or #12 Mike Van Brill (RUT), whichever loses in round 2 of the championship bracket. Bartlett has beaten Parco, handing the freshman his only loss of the season, by 3-1 in Sudden Victory. Parco has some solid wins, but appears to wrestle the top guys close, not scoring a ton of points. He hasn’t wrestled any of the top guys at 149. Bartlett has been close only to lose twice to Van Brill, both times in a Tiebreaker. Parco or Van Brill will be a tough match-up, but I actually like these better than others Bartlett could have had.

Win in round 3 of wrestleback action, and it’s on to the round of 12, one win from All-American. Sledding gets tougher now, as the guys dropping down already have two wins in the championship bracket. The wrestler dropping down, if the route above is accurate, could be any of #2 Tariq Wilson (NCST), #7 Josh Heil (CAMP) or #10 Ridge Lovett (NEB). Likely is the Heil v Lovett winner that then loses to Wilson, so I won’t discuss Wilson here. With Lovett, we know what we’re getting. If you remember the dual, Bartlett had Lovett in trouble and he magically turned the tables and got a takedown of his own, eventually beating Bartlett 6-0. Bartlett also struggled from bottom in that bout. Heil only has two losses on the season, both to #6 seed Millner (APP). While an underdog here too, anything can happen when a wrestler keeps it close, which Bartlett is capable of doing. Whoever wins here is an All-American.

 

[RoarLions1]

157: #16 Brady Berge’s Path:

I am most excited about writing this review. Berge is not a wrestler I would want to face right now. He looked great at the Big Ten Championships, only losing once, to #8 Lewan (MICH) in Sudden Victory, while beating two others (Coleman and Young) that are qualifiers.

First off, it will be #17 Hunter Willits (ORST), twin brother to 141 pounder Grant. I have the Lions knocking off two Beavers (Lee also beating Grant if they face each other), but it won’t be easy. Willits’ only loss at the PAC 12 Championships was in Sudden Victory to #3 Teemer (ASU), and all of his season’s losses are to qualifiers. Still, a decision win for Berge is my pick here, one that is solid but unspectacular.

Next up, #1 David Carr (ISU). I read another thread, and get the excitement some feel about the possibilities here. It is still a steep climb, so I’m dropping to wrestlebacks. If Berge can keep it close vs Carr heading to the third, we’ll just have to wait and see.

#15 Johnny Lovett (CMU) or #18 Andrew Cerniglia (NAVY) should be waiting, though many of you may remember the run #31 Wyatt Sheets went on last season to AA from the #33 seed, finishing 8th...so he's possible too. Anything is possible, but I’m guessing lightning won’t strike twice. Lovett is the MAC runner-up and owns a win vs Michigan’s Lewan in TB2. Lewan beat Berge in SV, so this looks like a toss-up to me. Cerniglio looks equally tough, finishing 2nd at the EIWA Championships to #5 Quincy Monday. He has a 2-point loss to Lewan, and while I’m not a big fan of transitive comparisons in wrestling, it’s all we have here. Berge did win by major decision to Cerniglia at the 2021 NCAA Championships, and Berge is even better this season imo. A win here and it’s on to the next round of wrestlebacks.

It could be an all-Big-Ten match-up here, as it appears the #9 Kaleb Young (IA) and #8 Will Lewan (MICH) loser drops down after round 2 of championships. One or the other should be waiting. We know what we’re getting with both, so I’ll move on.

With a win, the wrestlers move to the round of 12, where one more win earns a wrestler All-American honors. The opponent dropping down from the championship bracket should be one of #3 Jacori Teemer (ASU) or #6 Jared Franek (NDSU), whichever loses. Teemer is undefeated on the season while Franek has three losses. I’d rather see Franek here, but whatever. Teemer won the PAC 12 Championship, beating Willits in the finals. Franek finished 2nd at BIG 12’s, losing to Carr in the finals. Franek’s three losses on the season are to Carr (twice), and Brayton Lee (MINN) in SV. Lee, you remember is injured and unable to wrestle. Look for a close bout that could go either way.

 

[SCub]

157: #16 Brady Berge’s Path:

I am most excited about writing this review. Berge is not a wrestler I would want to face right now. He looked great at the Big Ten Championships, only losing once, to #8 Lewan (MICH) in Sudden Victory, while beating two others (Coleman and Young) that are qualifiers.

First off, it will be #17 Hunter Willits (ORST), twin brother to 141 pounder Grant. I have the Lions knocking off two Beavers (Lee also beating Grant if they face each other), but it won’t be easy. Willits’ only loss at the PAC 12 Championships was in Sudden Victory to #3 Teemer (ASU), and all of his season’s losses are to qualifiers. Still, a decision win for Berge is my pick here, one that is solid but unspectacular.

Next up, #1 David Carr (ISU). I read another thread, and get the excitement some feel about the possibilities here. It is still a steep climb, so I’m dropping to wrestlebacks. If Berge can keep it close vs Carr heading to the third, we’ll just have to wait and see.

#15 Johnny Lovett (CMU) or #18 Andrew Cerniglia (NAVY) should be waiting, though many of you may remember the run #31 Wyatt Sheets went on last season to AA from the #33 seed, finishing 8th...so he's possible too. Anything is possible, but I’m guessing lightning won’t strike twice. Lovett is the MAC runner-up and owns a win vs Michigan’s Lewan in TB2. Lewan beat Berge in SV, so this looks like a toss-up to me. Cerniglio looks equally tough, finishing 2nd at the EIWA Championships to #5 Quincy Monday. He has a 2-point loss to Lewan, and while I’m not a big fan of transitive comparisons in wrestling, it’s all we have here. Berge did lose by major decision to Cerniglia at the 2021 NCAA Championships, but it wasn’t the same Brady Berge. A tough win here and it’s on to the next round of wrestlebacks.

It could be an all-Big-Ten match-up here, as it appears the #9 Kaleb Young (IA) and #8 Will Lewan (MICH) loser drops down after round 2 of championships. One or the other should be waiting. We know what we’re getting with both, so I’ll move on.

With a win, the wrestlers move to the round of 12, where one more win earns a wrestler All-American honors. The opponent dropping down from the championship bracket should be one of #3 Jacori Teemer (ASU) or #6 Jared Franek (NDSU), whichever loses. Teemer is undefeated on the season while Franek has three losses. I’d rather see Franek here, but whatever. Teemer won the PAC 12 Championship, beating Willits in the finals. Franek finished 2nd at BIG 12’s, losing to Carr in the finals. Franek’s three losses on the season are to Carr (twice), and Brayton Lee (MINN) in SV. Lee, you remember is injured and unable to wrestle. Look for a close bout that could go either way.

Berge BEAT Cerniglia by MD

P.S. - i love these summaries. thanks for doing them.

 

[El-Jefe]

133: Roman Bravo-Young’s Path:

Next is either #16 Josh Koderhandt (NAVY) or #17 Haiden Drury (UVU). Koderhandt is the better of the two.

Not that this affects RBY, but Evans' win over Koderhandt is looking even better with time.

 

[IwasAwful]

When Drew, Beau, and Brady are standing on the podium next Saturday night they will have run a through a gauntlet and have earned their spots.

 

[El-Jefe]

Berge BEAT Cerniglia by MD

P.S. - i love these summaries. thanks for doing them.

... and Levi was beating Cerniglia convincingly before the injury default.

I like Cerniglia but am completely unconcerned about Berge facing him.

 

[raslen007]

133: Roman Bravo-Young’s Path:

No. 1 seeds are easier to pick a path. Even with the landmines at each weight class, mostly in later rounds, they will always have an easier route than say a 13 or 16 seed. They also will be significant favorites for at least two rounds, and often three.

RBY gets the 32/33 pigtail winner first, and should win easily. Next is either #16 Josh Koderhandt (NAVY) or #17 Haiden Drury (UVU). Koderhandt is the better of the two. His record is solid, but his schedule weak. One telling data point is a technical fall loss to Ragusin of Michigan, a wrestler RBY handled twice this season. Next up, a third round bout, likely vs the #8 RayVon Foley (MSU)/#9 Michael Colaiocco (PENN) winner. Colaiocco is on a 13-bout win streak and only has two losses, but hasn’t wrestled the caliber of opponents Foley has. Neither guy has wrestled RBY in college. Either way, RBY will be favored. And while RBY should get bonus in round 1 and 2, it is possible but unlikely here. Neither guy has lost by bonus this season. Win here and it is no worse than 6th place and All-American honors.

In the semis, the likely opponent will be #4 Korbin Myers or #5 Austin DeSanto. That is an interesting match-up, Myers only losing to #3 McGee during the season and DeSanto only to the top two seeds, RBY and Fix. RBY has beaten both in the past, DeSanto twice this season and five straight overall, and beat Myers at last year’s NCAA Championship.

Daton Fix (OKST) should be waiting in the finals.

I am wary of RBY beating a quality wrestler 3 times with in month, especially when they have been very tight.

 

[RoarLions1]

174: #1 Carter Starocci’s Path:

The third number one seed thus far for Penn State, Starocci gets the pigtail winner between two Big Ten guys, #32 O’Neill (RUT) and #33 Solis (MD). Neither should be a problem, look for bonus. The #16 Adam Kemp (CP) or #17 Nick Incontrera (PENN), whichever wins in round one, is next in round two. Incontrera was a major decision win for Starocci during the season. Kemp has an ok record, but a weak resume, losing to Eishens, Shannon and Wolf during season. If you don’t recognize those names, that’s the point. Expect bonus here and on to round three.

#9 Mikey Labriola (NEB) or #8 Michael O’Malley (DREX) is likely here, with the winner having a date with Starocci. Labriola had a great season, ignoring the early season loss to Nijenhuis, beating Kemerer late in the season. He also lost twice to #3 Logan Massa (MICH) and once to #7 Ethan Smith (OHST). Labriola wrestled Starocci during the 2021 season, losing in Sudden Victory. This is a dangerous match-up, but I believe Starocci has upped his game more than Labriola since that point last season. The other possibility here is O’Malley, winner of the EIWA Championship. He’s on a 12-match win streak, last losing to #13 Finesilver (DUKE). His best wins on the season are vs Incontrera (3x), so while his record is fabulous, the resume doesn’t show the same strength. On to the semifinals.

Will #5 Michael Kemerer’s (IA) shoulder hold up, or will it be #4 Hayden Hidlay (NCST), up two weight class from a year ago for his swan song season? I don’t have a guess. A healthy Kemerer would be favored, imo, but that’s simply not the case. Still, best wishes for Kemerer against all but Starocci. We know what we’re getting with Kemerer and have an idea with Hidlay. He has two losses on the season, one to #2 Mekhi Lewis (VT) at the ACC Championships, and he was pinned by #10 Lautt (UNC) at the dual. Either will be tough outs. Regardless, look for the Starocci ride to be the difference.

In the finals, I look for either Mekhi Lewis or #3 Logan Massa (MICH). We know Massa well, Starocci winning twice this season in close bouts. Lewis is the ACC Champ and is healthy after an injury last season caused him to forfeit out of the NCAA Championships. His lone loss on the season was during the regular season, to Hidlay. Other than that, he has close wins against all the top guys he’s wrestled; 3-2 win vs Hidlay, 4-2 & 6-2 vs Lautt, 3-1 TB-1 vs Foca, 9-6 TB-1 Vs Mocco. Expect another low-scoring affair, with Starocci wanting to control the action with his ride.

 

[jack66]

It's a bit ironic, the 2 weights where we spent much of the season trying to fill ended up drawing about as tough a path to AA as you can get.

 

[RoarLions1]

184: #2 Aaron Brook’s Path:

Not unlike a #1 seed, #2 also is normally a big favorite through a couple rounds. Not that upsets don’t happen, but they are rare. However, the second round match here is tougher than most (read below). Brooks gets #31 AJ Burkhart (LEH) in round one. The Lehigh wrestler has about a .500 record, and lost to Donovan Ball at the Penn State dual. Brooks will be a huge favorite here.

The second round bout is far more intriguing. The #15 Hunter Bolen (VT) / #18 Abe Assad (IA) winner awaits. Bolen finished third at the ACC Championships, and if memory serves, he reached the number one ranking a couple years ago. He’s good, only losing on the season to #3 Trent Hidlay, #14 Gavin Kane, #13 Kyle Cochran and #11 Jonathon Loew. With Assad, we know what we are getting, Brooks winning twice over the past three years, but only by decision. While it is only the second round, this is a tough match-up, whichever guy he faces. While I see a win, it may not be by bonus unless it’s a fall.

#7 Kaleb Romero (OHST) or #10 Taylor Venz (NEB) will surely be the quarterfinal opponent. Romero moved up from 174 this season and has never wrestled Brooks, while Venz is a known commodity, Brooks winning the last five against the Husker. Romero has three losses on the season, two to #1 Amine, and another inexplicably to #9 Braunagel. Not that it’s a horrible loss, only that Romero would be the 5 or 6 seed had he won this bout where he was favored. Look for a win for Brooks, but unlikely bonus.

Next up, #3 Trent Hidlay (NCST). I don’t see Hidlay losing before the semi’s, so he’s the odds-on favorite to be waiting. Undefeated and the ACC champ, his last loss was at the 2021 NCAA Championships to Brooks. Look for more of the same, a low scoring affair, maybe with a single takedown in the seven minute bout, or even Sudden Victory. While Brooks is improved, so is Hidlay. This is a terrific semifinal.

Win and Brooks gets either #1 Myles Amine (MICH) or #4 Peter Keckeisen (UNI). While Amine will be favored, Keckeisen is no slouch. Both have one loss on the season, and those losses were both to Brooks. Nothing would surprise me here. Like in the semifinal, Brooks will have his hands full if he’s in the finals. Looking at his path, it is an exhausting one, starting in round two. And I don’t see a better top-4 in any other weight class, three losses total among them. The semifinals and finals match-ups, unless a major upset happens, are all worth the price of admission. I’m so looking forward to the action at 184.

 

[a_mshaffer]

174: #1 Carter Starocci’s Path:

The third number one seed thus far for Penn State, Starocci gets the pigtail winner between two Big Ten guys, #32 O’Neill (RUT) and #33 Solis (MD). Neither should be a problem, look for bonus. The #16 Adam Kemp (CP) or #17 Nick Incontrera (PENN), whichever wins in round one, is next in round two. Incontrera was a major decision win for Starocci during the season. Kemp has an ok record, but a weak resume, losing to Eishens, Shannon and Wolf during season. If you don’t recognize those names, that’s the point. Expect bonus here and on to round three.

#9 Mikey Labriola (NEB) or #8 Michael O’Malley (DREX) is likely here, with the winner having a date with Starocci. Labriola had a great season, ignoring the early season loss to Nijenhuis, beating Kemerer late in the season. He also lost twice to #3 Logan Massa (MICH) and once to #7 Ethan Smith (OHST). Labriola wrestled Starocci during the 2021 season, losing in Sudden Victory. This is a dangerous match-up, but I believe Starocci has upped his game more than Labriola since that point last season. The other possibility here is O’Malley, winner of the EIWA Championship. He’s on a 12-match win streak, last losing to #13 Finesilver (DUKE). His best wins on the season are vs Incontrera (3x), so while his record is fabulous, the resume doesn’t show the same strength. On to the semifinals.

Will #5 Michael Kemerer’s (IA) shoulder hold up, or will it be #4 Hayden Hidlay (NCST), up two weight class from a year ago for his swan song season? I don’t have a guess. A healthy Kemerer would be favored, imo, but that’s simply not the case. Still, best wishes for Kemerer against all but Starocci. We know what we’re getting with Kemerer and have an idea with Hidlay. He has two losses on the season, one to #2 Mekhi Lewis (VT) at the ACC Championships, and he was pinned by #10 Lautt (UNC) at the dual. Either will be tough outs. Regardless, look for the Starocci ride to be the difference.

In the finals, I look for either Mekhi Lewis or #3 Logan Massa (MICH). We know Massa well, Starocci winning twice this season in close bouts. Lewis is the ACC Champ and is healthy after an injury last season caused him to forfeit out of the NCAA Championships. His lone loss on the season was during the regular season, to Hidlay. Other than that, he has close wins against all the top guys he’s wrestled; 3-2 win vs Hidlay, 4-2 & 6-2 vs Lautt, 3-1 TB-1 vs Foca, 9-6 TB-1 Vs Mocco. Expect another low-scoring affair, with Starocci wanting to control the action with his ride.

yea the Kem/Hidlay will be interesting as Hidlays fav side for the underhook is the bad shoulder on kem

 

[RoarLions1]

197: #1 Max Dean’s Path:

An easy first round bout vs the #32 Will Feldcamp (CLAR) / #33 Matthew Waddell (CHAT) pigtail winner will likely be a bonus point win for Dean. The #16 Kordell Norfleet (ASU) / #17 Jay Aiello (UVA) winner will be the second round opponent. Dean beat Norfleet by major decision 10-1 during the season and didn’t face Aiello. Norfleet won the PAC 12 against mediocre opposition while Aiello finished third at the ACC Championships. Both have similar resumes, losing only to guys seeded higher, though Aiello beat #13 Jake Woodley this season while Norfleet lost to the Sooner. Look for a bout similar to all three at Big Ten’s for Dean; a couple of takedowns, a solid ride and a win that may not look, score-wise, as dominating as it really is.

The third round opponent is likely to be #9 Cameron Caffey (MSU) or #8 Lou Deprez (BING). Caffey is well known, with him and Dean splitting bouts during the season, Caffey winning in East Lansing, while Dean won at Big Ten’s. Deprez won the EIWA Championship, beating #18 Luke Stout and #20 Jacob Koser along the way. Deprez had a nice season, but as reference lost to Penola and Schultz of the Big Ten. Dean’s win over Caffey at B1G’s and Deprez’ losses give me confidence for a Dean win here. It’s on to the semifinals.

#4 Patrick Brucki (MICH) or #5 Nino Bonaccorsi (PITT) are likely opponents, whomever wins in the quarters. Brucki beat Bonaccorsi in a dual, but both guys have similar resumes, as it should be with a #4 vs #5. By the way, Bonaccorsi also lost to Rutger’s Greg Bulsak, so I’m thinking Brucki has a slight edge. A Dean vs Brucki semifinal, on paper, is a tough one to call. Dean vs Bonaccorsi is actually a smidgeon easier imo. In Ann Arbor, Brucki jumped out to a lead with two early takedowns, only to see Dean get a late one of his own and ride the Wolverine hard, sending the bout to Sudden Victory. An exhausted Brucki then gave up the deciding takedown, Dean taking the victory. My thinking is that Dean has improved since that bout and will win a close one. We’ll see.

Assuming a win, it’ll surely be either #2 Stephen Buchanan (WYO) or #3 Eric Schultz (NEB) in the finals. Schultz is a known opponent, falling to Dean in the Big Ten finals. Buchanan on the other hand is best known to us as Micheal Beard’s opponent in the 7/8 bout at last year’s NCAA Championships, Beard winning 10-8 in Sudden Victory. Buchanan’s only losses this season were to Ferrari and #22 Pentz (by fall, maybe he was caught ), and he beat Schultz earlier this season. Anyway, he’s upped his game and will be a tough out. Btw, Buchanan has also beaten Brucki earlier in the season at the Cliff Keen Invitational. Win here and Dean is your champion, though it is not an easy road.

 

[IwasAwful]

yea the Kem/Hidlay will be interesting as Hidlays fav side for the underhook is the bad shoulder on kem

I think I would prefer to control Kem’s good side with the underhook. That would force him to attack/defend with the bad sad. If you jack his bad side up with a hook, he still has his good side to attack/defend with. I don’t think pain really plays a role with Kem, he is really darn tough. Just thinking out loud.

 

[donboy6499]

It's a bit ironic, the 2 weights where we spent much of the season trying to fill ended up drawing about as tough a path to AA as you can get.

I tend to think the committee noticed this as well.

 

[RoarLions1]

285: #4 Greg Kerkvliet’s Path:

As the #4 seed, Kerkvliet gets #29 Brandon Metz (NDSU) in the first round. At 16-9 for the season, Metz’ record gets deflated a bit, to 13-9 when considering only D1 competition. Also, he lost six of his last seven bouts, including three at the Big 12 Championships. A bonus point win here appears possible.

The #13 Tate Orndorff (OHST) / #20 Joe Doyle (BING) winner will be the second round opponent. We know Orndorff, who has two major decision losses to the Lion in the past. Doyle came in third at the EIWA Championships, losing early to Ben Golden, and then defeating him in the 3rd Place match. Doyle has no great wins, even losing to Orndorff by major decision earlier in the season. I’ll go Kerkvliet vs Orndorff and a possible bonus point win.

The next bout, if it happens, will be fun. Kerkvliet vs #5 Wyatt Hendrickson (AF) is the chalk match-up. Hendrickson is unbeaten on the season, with many by fall. Recently he had five falls in a row, and six in seven bouts. Earlier in the season he racked up six in a row. While the wins are impressive, his schedule has been mediocre at best. Wins against the #’s 19, 22, 24, 25 and 33 seeds at this year’s NCAA Championships are his best, though he dominated them all. His closest match was a 4-point win. He’s also the BIG 12 champ. There is no data point or set of facts to lead me to any conclusions here. He did beat Maryland’s Schrader by technical fall, but that is no help at all. Best I can come up with is that he hasn’t wrestled any of the top guys, and that certainly includes Kerkvliet. Kerkvliet must be careful, maybe not take bottom when his choice comes. I’ll go with the higher seed advancing.

All-everything and #1 seed Gable Steveson (MINN) is next. Great opportunity here, but Steveson has been untouchable. Closest thing to a sure thing among the 10 weight classes, imo.

More fun ahead, as the opponent in the consi semifinals could be one of #2 Colton Schultz (ASU), #6 Jordan Wood (LEH), #7 Mason Parris (MICH), #3 Tony Cassioppi (IA) or #10 Nathan Traxler. Right now the championship quarterfinals have the likely pairings of Cassioppi vs Wood, and Parris vs Schultz. Traxler is only in the mix if he beats Parris. By seed, the losers of those two bouts will wrestle in the consi’s, with the winner moving on to face Kerkvliet (hopefully … again assuming he beats Hendrickson). At this point it doesn’t matter. All are worthy adversaries and a tough out. Cassioppi has two wins over Kerkvliet, but Kerkvliet has been closing the gap. Parris has two losses to Kerkvliet this season. Schultz beat Kerkvliet handily last season at NCAA’s under completely different circumstances. And Wood was beaten by Kerkvliet at last year’s championships. The winner here goes for third.

Whoever is in the third place bout, their name has surely already been mentioned. When a wrestler loses in the championship bracket determines where they drop into wrestlebacks, so it will surely be the same cast of characters, including a possible rematch with Hendrickson. Win here and it is a third place All-American finish, lose and it is fourth place.

 

[McScoreley]

Brady's path to AA'ing will be tough at the R12 if seeds go out to chalk. But wouldn't be shocked if things start blowing up earlier than expected.

 

[bwfight]

I am wary of RBY beating a quality wrestler 3 times with in month, especially when they have been very tight.

I think RBY has saved some surprises for NCAAs this year. I look for him to open things up if he faces DeCantgo again.

 

[STAND with PRIDE]

I think RBY has saved some surprises for NCAAs this year. I look for him to open things up if he faces DeCantgo again.

Not just against ADS, I think he’s gonna open that can Thursday morning.