Roster thoughts from last year to this year - long

[Nit777]

Last year PSU played with somewhere between 40-45 initial scholarships player that were not injured or redshirting.

A full strength team would probably be playing with 70+/- initial scholarship players with the other 15+/- redshirting.

On top of these numbers, about 3-5 of the 40-45 never played at all if you check the PSU Official Athletic site for game participation records.

Thus, when CJF states that he was playing with 40 players, he is pretty much on and it is clear that there was a substantial numbers/quality/depth difference.

I am going to arbitrarily use 43 for the rest of the analysis.

We lose 8 seniors and 3 early entrants. (Amos, Bars, Belton, Dieffenbach, Ficken, Hull, Olaniyan, Zwinak plus Smith, Barnes and James) for a total loss of 11.

That gets us down to 32.

We pick up 15 redshirts and Adam Breneman. That gets us up to 48.

I would suspect that about 10 true frosh play this fall.

That gets us to 58+/-. Still a far cry from 70+/-

Of the 15 RS frosh and Breneman, I would think Brown, Farmer, Oruwariye, Thomas, Thompkins, White, Worley, Reeder and Breneman are going to see substantial minutes. The remainder of Beh, Brosnan, McSorley, Scott, Sorell, Allen and Wright will see less time as 4 are OL and there is lots of talent ahead of the young offensive players.

The ten true freshmen I see playing are Barkley, Johnson, Charles and Palmer on offense, Bowen, Carter, Reid and Taylor on defense and Miller and Monroe on special teams.

With 25 redshirt or true frosh out of 58 players, there will almost certainly be some mistakes attributable to youth.

However, it will be a deeper, faster and more athletic roster overall.

Defense and special teams should be improved.

Offense will not be affected as much but should be improved with Breneman back, young legs in Barkley, a thumper in Thomas and line depth.

We are a recruiting cycle, and maybe two cycles removed from being full strength, but I am looking forward to spring practice to see how the young additions will perform, recognizing that some will not be here until August.

I would think that CJF is excited about the roster as compared to last year's version.

 

[Mister Magoo]

We have 57 kids plus the incoming class. More depth than you think.


Still awfully young though. We don't seem to be having many academic casualties or transfer out kids. Which is cool. They shouldn't be pushed out the door if they're not quite the player we hope. As long as they are doing their school work.

 

[Kiber]

Re: We have 57 kids plus the incoming class. More depth than you think.

Magoo -- That is the thing. With the way the entire NCAA sanctions worked out, with players able to transfer (IE - guys like Redd) plus the loss of scholarships, we are very low in upper classman. Franklin is adding numbers to the roster as fast as he can. But over the next couple seasons our roster will be very skewed on the younger side. Look at the number of rSoph, true Soph, sFR, and true FR. Those groups make up a good 70-75% of our roster.

 

[BBrown]

Re: We have 57 kids plus the incoming class. More depth than you think.

Originally posted by Mister Magoo:

Still awfully young though. We don't seem to be having many academic casualties or transfer out kids. Which is cool. They shouldn't be pushed out the door if they're not quite the player we hope. As long as they are doing their school work.

That is good but I do think once spring ends that we may have a transfer or 2 from the DB's and WR's area. INMO there is a lot of talent in that area and I have a feeling that some upperclassman have been passed over
for playing time.

 

[NittanyTerp]

With the very small classes anticipated for 17 and 18 (given the 25, 25, 20+ classes in 14, 15, and 16), and with the fairly high level of talent and depth we will now have at CB and WR, I think it would be irresponsible for the long term strength of the program to play BOTH Johnson and Charles and BOTH Reid and Taylor.

There simply will not be enough reps to spread out over the season to warrant burning shirts of two true freshmen at these positions when we have a last opportunity to balance the the talent a little bit over classes. I would be thrilled if the current RS freshmen were good enough that all 4 of those listed above could redshirt, but don't want to sacrifice this season's success for future years.

 

[Mister Magoo]

Prob not a normal roster until 2017.


Two things though.

1. O'Brien had to take kids who wanted to come here. He wasn't allowed to recruit like we normally do. Because of bowl ban and scholie limits. The top kids weren't even considering us. We had to reach for some kids.

2. I hate to say it. But, I groaned when I heard Franklin talk about our 40-45 playing their 85. Nobody has 85 players at their availability. He wasn't counting players he CHOSE to red-shirt.Wisely so IMO. But, I think the team may have used it as a crutch or excuse. He didn't count injured players. I believe OSU played with about 55 kids last year once you subtract, red-shirts, academic casualties. a ton of injuries and a couple of suspensions. Our 42 didn't take their 85 to the wire. Was more like our 42 vs their 55. A big difference. But, not as big as we made it out to be. Inexperience and lesser talented players were just as big a reason we lost to the likes of Maryland and Illinois.

 

[NittanyTerp]

Re: Prob not a normal roster until 2017.

This +100. Also poor last drive coaching cost us the chance at a couple of games -- particularly Maryland.

 

[Mister Magoo]

Failed fake punt at Michigan turned that game around


I don't think they could have drivien the field that night the way our defense was playing. Defense was spectacular last year. That's where a lack of depth will normally show up. And, it really didn't. Our kids played great on that side of the ball and Bob Shoop is an outstanding co-ordinator. The offense was just painful to watch.

 

[blion72]

Re: Prob not a normal roster until 2017.

Your analysis is totally on target. Most teams are actually playing with 55-65 scholarship players at any point. I thought that our actual scholarship roster was approx. 70 last year. We had injuries, 17 redshirts (that is coach choice) and an unusual mix of players due to recent recruiting. So we were very thin with scholarship OL players, which caused the dressing of non-scholarship OL players.

We did DRESS more than 43 players, as about 15-20 of the guys standing on the sideline in unis were walk on players. For example if we had recruited some very high end OL talent (the kind that sees the field at Bama as a FR), we would have seen those guys challenging for starting spots, due to how thin the talent was there. Someone on this forum put up the players who saw time last fall, and I recall it was around 20 walk on players. If you were to contrast that with say OSU or MSU, their number might be 1 at most. We just didn't have enough scholarship players at the right positions who were good enough to challenge these players for playing time, or they wouldn't have been redshirted. No sense in burning redshirts if players aren't good enough to play over what you have.

so going into this season we will have 17 rs Fr (sophs with no playing exp) + 22 true FR recruits (excel Palmer and Reigned).

39 players on a scholarship roster around 83 (I think that is our number) = nearly half the team will have no experience, albeit a very talented lot. What will likely be different is we will not see the number of walk on players in uniform this year.

 

[NJPSU]

I agree with your redshirt comment but keep in mind it's going to be increasingly unlikely that guys with pro potential are going to stay in college for 5 years anyway. This is especially true at positions like WR and CB. Johnson, Charles, Reid, and Taylor all have major pro potential so even if you redshirt them it doesn't mean they are likely to stay for that 5th year(or even that 4th year).

 

[mickey_PSU]

Re: Prob not a normal roster until 2017.

I think the message was, not the numbers so much, but that we were competing with one hand tied behind our back. Your first point is the one I want to focus on. While Ohio State had 55 guys available who were for the most part 4 and 5 star kids, we had 2 defensive back walk ons and a bunch of 3 stars- with only a couple 4 star kids mixed in. Most importantly, our O-Line was a mess. Our best guys- Hackenberg and Lewis on offense were severely handicapped. Our running backs wonsisted of a converted slot receiver and a fullback.
I do not mean to denegrade any of our guys, but our limited numbers were further reduced by the situation we were in due ot the sanctions.
The other point I'd like to make is that the limited talent affects the team in ways no one thinks about. Lesser talent inhibits improvement as the starters aren't being challenged. In a lot of instances, there was no one to push the starter (especially on the O-Line) so while I'm not suggesting our guys weren't trying very hard, they didn't have anyone pushing htem that extra mile. This is where the numbers made the real difference- better talent will (or should) result in better performance all around.

Last thing- there's no doubt, it was definitely impressive that Ohio State was able to win the NC with their 3rd string QB, but comparing just numbers doesn't tell the story. Now there is depth so the entire team should get better, assuming the coaching is there- and I expect it is.

 

[mickey_PSU]

Re: Prob not a normal roster until 2017.

For everyone's benefit, here's the anticipated 2015 scholarship roster. I've listed everyone in their athletic class so redshirts are not included- for example Nyeem Wartman is a Sr. academically but is listed as a junior and Adam Breneman is a Jr. academically but is listed as a sophomore. br>
Offense:

Lineman: 15
SR: Reihner; Mangiro
JR: Palmer; Dowrey; Gaia; Laurent
SO: Mahon; Nelson
FR: Beh; Brosnon; Sorrell; Wright; Bates; Gonzalez; Jenkins

Quarterbacks: 3
SR:
JR: Hackenberg
SO:
FR: McSorley; Stevens

Runningbacks: 6
SR:
JR: Lynch
SO:
FR: M.Allen; Scott; Thomas; Barkley; Robinson

Receivers: 9
SR: Zanellato
JR: Lewis
SO: Hamilton; Godwin; Blacknall
FR: Thomkins; Charles; J.Johnson; Polk

Tight Ends: 6
SR: Carter
JR: Wilkerson
SO: Breneman; Gesicki
FR: Bowers; Holland


Defense:
Tackles: 6
SR: Zettel; Barney
JR: A.Johnson
SO: P.Cothren
FR: White; Windsor

Ends: 9
SR: Nassib
JR: Schwann
SO: Sickles; C.Cothran
FR: Brown; Buchholz; Carter; Givens; S.Miller

Linebackers: 10
SR: Kline
JR: Bell; Wartman; Wooten
SO: Cabinda
FR: Reeder; Farmer; Bowen; Cooper; Kelly

Safeties: 9
SR: Lucas
JR: Golden
SO: Allen; Apke; A.Smith
FR: Oruwariye; J.Miller; Monroe; Petrishen

Cornerbacks: 10
SR: Williams; Davis
JR: Kiley
SO: Campbell; Haley; J.Smith; Gaines
FR: Worley; Reed; G.Taylor


We do not have any kickers/punters on scholarship- that's another area we need to work on however, I do think we have options and they're not all that bad- in fact, they may be just fine, we'll see.
This post was edited on 3/21 2:35 PM by mickey_PSU

 

[Nit777]

Who is to say that either Johnson and/or Charles are not better than Lewis, Blacknall or Godwin?

Why sit them if they can play?

Same with the high end DBs.

I think this staff has proven that they can go out and get kids.

I used to be a 'redshirt all' type of fan. However, the elite don't stay 5 years and a great example of that is Austin Johnson. He will almost certainly not stick around for a fifth year in 2016. In retrospect, BO should have played him in 2012.

Also, if a player is injured after redshirting, he loses 2 years as the redshirt is no longer available. Breneman is an example of why you play freshmen who can play. Had he redshirted in 2013 and then got hurt in 2014, he loses two years. Now his injury year and redshirt year are the same year and he may get in 4 years of playing if he sticks around.

The coaches won't play all the freshmen as there are positions, especially OL where they have to get bigger and stronger.

I now view it like the old Doritos commercial with Jay Leno.

Eat all you want, we'll make more.

Here, it is play all you want and we will recruit more.

 

[Mister Magoo]

OSU being all 4 and 5 stars is a myth


Go to the top of the page under commits. Hit the drop down for OSU. Then go back thru their classes from 2010-2012. Many 3 stars. Urban is the best offensive coach in the country. Period. I thought he was the 2nd best overall coach when OSU hired him behind Saban. But, Bama's struggles against spread/mobile qb's might have moved them close.

Our roster is nowhere near their's talent wise. But, the dominated because of coaching and talent. OSU is 25-1 in the B1G under Urbz. Whom I can't stand. But, I'll give the devil his due. Their last 3 classes 2013-15 were aweseome. Couple that with their coaching and we have an uphill battle.

Thru hard work and tenacity. I think Franklin will recruit enough talent to even the playing field. Doesn't have to be as good to beat them. Just near what they have. What worries me is our offensive side of the ball. Sure, the OL wasn't up to snuff? But, we couldn't scheme enough to move the ball on Indiana, Illinois and Maryland? 3 wretched defensive teams.

 

[mickey_PSU]

To add to the discussion, here's the projected 2016 roster. You can see where we'll need to recruit well in this class. I know, some of this was obvious but sometimes it's just easier to see it in writing. BTW, I also took kids out I believe may leave the program early, transfer or just give up football (guys like Kiley, J.Smith, A.Smith, Gaines, Hackenberg and A.Johnson). The last point, guys like Bell, Wartman and Breneman are all potential candidates to go Pro.

Offense:

Lineman: 14
SR: Palmer; Dowrey; Gaia; Laurent
JR: Mahon; Nelson
SO: Beh; Brosnon; Sorrell; Wright; Jenkins
FR: Bates; Gonzalez; McGovern

Quarterbacks: 3
SR:
JR:
SO: McSorley
FR: Stevens; Zembiec

Runningbacks: 7
SR: Lynch
JR:
SO: M.Allen; Scott; Thomas; Barkley
FR: Robinson; Sanders

Receivers: 8
SR: Lewis
JR: Hamilton; Godwin; Blacknall
SO: Thomkins; Charles; J.Johnson
FR: Polk

Tight Ends: 4
SR:
JR: Breneman; Gesicki
SO: Bowers; Holland
FR:

Defense:
Tackles: 4
SR:
JR: P.Cothren
SO: White
FR: Windsor; Carter

Ends: 8
SR: Schwann
JR: Sickles; C.Cothran
SO: Brown; Buchholz
FR: Givens; S.Miller; Simmons

Linebackers: 9
SR: Bell; Wartman; Wooten
JR: Cabinda
SO: Reeder; Farmer; Bowen
FR: Cooper; Kelly

Safeties: 7
SR: Golden
JR: Allen; Apke
SO: Oruwariye
FR: J.Miller; Monroe; Petrishen

Cornerbacks: 6
SR:
JR: Campbell; Haley
SO: Worley; Reed; G.Taylor
FR: Hill


I anticipated who I think may play as a true freshman- this is subject to debate but as one can see, we're really thin at DT and, believe it or not, in the secondary. Tight End is also a position of need in this class.

 

[mickey_PSU]

Re: OSU being all 4 and 5 stars is a myth

Can't disagree with you on the coaching but I still think Ohio State has significantly more talent than we do overall. We've been fighting with primarily low 3 star kids with a few 4 and 5s mixed in (I think Hack is our only 5*) and as I said, we've had a few key kids playing where we needed them rather than where they were recruited to play. Again, I go to our offensive line situation- that alone, if all other positions are equal, would put us at a big disadvantage (and it did). OSU has higher end 3 star kids; I believe a better ability to evaluate talent (aided by a fertile recruiting ground in Ohio and not having to worry about a kid even wanting to go there- we took what we could get, they selected); and not having to deal with the kind of sanctions we've had to deal with (see previous comment in parenthesis). BTW, I can't stand Urbs either.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that Ohio States 55 had much more talent than our 40 or so; when an Ohio State kid was hurt, they were able to play the next kid available- I don't think they were playing with injured kids the way we were- again, use QB as an example, Hack played all year pretty banged up (if you believe what we've been told) while Ohio State was able to win the NC with their 3rd string Qb. Donovan Smith played all season hurt, so much so that if we had a backup, he would have sat. Nelson was injured last season, Hamilton played with a hamstring injury the last 5 games of the season...it goes on and on. Finally, go back to last spring- lots of kids were injured, didn't get the reps and, back to our offensive line, no one really got to practice consistently at one position, they all had to learn all the positions because we had 0 depth.