RSS Shows No Warming For 15 Years (After 98 El Nino-Meets 15 yr criteria)

[T J]

RSS Shows No Warming For 15 Years (Now Includes February Data)
April 9, 2015http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/04/09/rss-shows-no-warming-for-15-years-now-includes-february-data/

In the above graphic, the zero line from February 2000 has been offset to make it visible. It actually falls right on top of the zero trend line from December 1996.
The title may seem odd since RSS shows no trend for 18 years and 3 months now. The title was triggered by an exchange several years ago in which we were challenged to show there was no warming for 15 years. I promptly showed that to be the case with RSS, but was accused of cherry picking since I went on the other side of the 1998 El Nino. Some one else started on this side of the 1998 El Nino and was accused of not going 15 years. We could not win then. But now we can.
Fifteen years is important because of the following quote by NOAA found on page 23:
"The simulations rule out (at the 95% level) zero trends for intervals of 15 yr or more, suggesting that an observed absence of warming of this duration is needed to create a discrepancy with the expected present-day warming rate."

Later, NOAA talks about El Ninos and the bottom line seemed to be that if any trend goes on the other side of the 1998 El Nino, then the simulations are not invalidated. I have always said that the La Ninas on either side of the 1998 El Nino cancel out the affects of the 1998 El Nino, but that did not seem to matter. People focus on and see what they want to see.
Note also that the 15 years is a time for a slope of zero. So to get no warming at the 95% level, one could easily add about 4 years unless anomalies really fell off a cliff prior to February 2000.

So whichever way we look at it, RSS shows a discrepancy with the simulations.

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Conclusion[/B]
It is no longer necessary to go earlier than 1998 to prove no warming for 15 years as per NOAA’s statement. At least that is the case for RSS.
The other data sets, with the exception of GISS, show no statistically significant warming going longer than 1998. However as I have shown, the La Ninas on either side of 1998 cancel the effect of the 1998 El Nino, so that is not a big deal either.
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This post was edited on 4/9 11:27 AM by T J

RSS Shows No Warming For 15 Years, after 98 ElNino

 

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