Searching for an edge, coach Franklin looks into analytics, sports science

[PSU-Knocker]

Sorry for the football related topic.

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/psu/2015/03/19/Searching-for-an-edge-James-Franklin-looks-into-analytics-sports-science/stories/201503180247

 

[PSUSignore]

Moneyball! *

nm

 

[michnittlion]

Good ---- hopefully that means

(1) no more fake punts on 4th-and-11 from the opponent's 37 when your opponent has no idea how to offensively move the football, while you have a dominant defense.

(2) no 3 straight runs up the middle when up 2 w/ 3:00 left from your own 15, when you have not run the ball effectively all the game, and your opponent has the best FG kicker in college football.

(3) no 3 straight runs up the middle when up 1 w/ 2:00 left from your own 35, when you have not run the ball effectively all the game, and you'd be punting into a 30-MPH wind. Especially don't run with your rather immobile QB.



No offense, but Franklin was very shaky on game-time decisions last year. I expect improvement there.

 

[sluggo72]

hmmm I'd take the 20 min PT for the wildcat away, and use it 1-1 for the OL

vs DL, WR vs DB, TE,RB vs LB, work on both pass and run. It aint that hard.

 

[Ranger Dan]

I remember Urshel saying that he might want to get into sports analytics

after football. Maybe Urshel could come back to PSU as a grad assistant and do his PHD in sports analytics?

BTW, I love the fact that CJF is open/motivated to use these types of data sources. It will never take the place of on the spot decision making, but knowing more will certainly make these decisions easier.

 

[bdgan]

Which one was #3?

(1) Was against Michigan. PSU had a small lead but Michigan hadn't been able to move the ball all day. The game was a battle of defenses and field position. The fake on 4th and 12 changed field position and the game. I would have questioned the fake if it was 4th and 3 but 4th and 12?

(2) Was Maryland. PSU was in control for most of the game but Maryland got back in it when Haley fumbled the KO return. There is no guarantee that PSU would have made a 1st down if they decided to pass but there was virtually no chance for them to make a 1st down with 3 consecutive runs (given our weak and injured OL). And MD was a virtual lock to kick a game winning FG if we couldn't make a 1st down (given our weak punting game). I think this was the game where Franklin said that he went "by the book". All I could think was that "the book" doesn't consider that your team has a lousy running game, a lousy punting game, and your opponent has a great kicker.

(3) Was this Illinois? I know that game turned when Haley failed to field the second half kickoff into the wind. The staff has to share the blame for not having the kids move up. What I do remember is that we could have won the game with a first down and 1 foot to go but Franklin decided to punt. I think you've got to try and gain a foot to win the game, especially since Illinois only needed a FG. It would have been different if they needed a TD. Even so, this wasn't as bad as MD. We had decent field position and Illinois had to make a few 1st downs to get into FG position.

Poor decisions probably cost PSU two wins last year. 9-3 would have been a lot more impressive than 7-6. I wonder if those losses had an impact on recruits like Mclean, Burrell, etc.





This post was edited on 3/19 12:30 PM by bdgan

 

[Obliviax]

I love analytics...but

once done, everyone has the same data, the same parameters. It is easy to anticipate what someone is going to do once you've figured out their analytical decision points. At some point, you've got to go with your gut and differentiate.

The difference is like Gretzky saying "you don't skate to the puck, you skate to where the puck is going to be." Easily said. But that takes an instinctive understanding of the game. That is AKA, "gut."

 

[michnittlion]

Yeah, #3 was Illinois

That 2nd-half opening kickoff was pretty bad, but (a) the halftime score was tied at 7-7, (b) Illinois only got a FG on the ensuing drive, and (c) we wound up re-taking the lead at 14-10 early in the 4th quarter anyway.


But after we got that 14-10 lead, we ran 6 plays (not counting the last play, which was a "pass and then hope for 40 laterals and a miracle"): 6 runs, 0 passes, 1 penalty mixed in, 0 first downs.


Maryland was worse, but you gotta try to pass for a 1st down occasionally when the run game is struggling. Wind being against us partially negates our decent field position. One First Down and we likely win.


Anyway, I'm perhaps being overly critical, but last year raised eyebrows many times.

 

[psuro]

Re: Good ---- hopefully that means


I agreed with everything you said, including CJF's game time decision making. Hope to see some improvement.

 

[psuro]

Re: I love analytics...but


Sounds like something that kid from Brooklyn would say.

 

[Ranger Dan]

I think there is more value in practice preparation and player development,

and certainly game planning, than in in game decision making.