Looking forward to Saturday and watching this team play with a nasty streak. They know they had it and want to right the ship. I hope we play with some fire and take care of business.
I know we all want the playoff so lets dive into this and really look at what needs to happen for PSU to get there.
This weekend could shake things up. If you are hoping for a playoff run then you should really be rooting for Oklahoma State, NC State and West Virginia. I believe WVU will take care of business at home against Iowa State. That takes them out and devalues TCU and Oklahoma. We need Oklahoma State to beat Oklahoma and will drop OU out of the playoff hunt with 2 losses. PSU will move up. I do not think that Oklahoma State will jump in front of us if they beat Oklahoma. If they win out and win the Big 12 that's a different story, but I just don't see the committee valuing the Big12 this year and if Iowa State loses to WVU it will severely devalue their wins over Oklahoma and TCU. Next week Iowa State hosts Ok State. Let Oklahoma State win this week and then lose next week in Ames. That is ideal for PSU.
If NC State pulls off a monster victory over Clemson then things get really interesting. Where would Clemson fall? Behind PSU. Would Miami and Wisconsin land in front of them? Penn State needs Clemson to lose and take them out of the ACC champ game That would help lower the quality of win for Miami in the ACC champ game. Speaking of Miami a win by VaTech this weekend is very big for PSU. The goal is to take out as many potential 13th game outliers. If PSU can't get to the B1G champ game they need the winners of those conference games or at least those that play in it to have as many losses as possible. The 13th point does not favor Penn State. Miami also hosts Notre Dame next week which is also very bad for Penn State. If Miami beats Notre Dame and beats Va Tech this week they will 100% jump PSU. That's two big wins back to back. Hope that Miami loses this week and then Beats ND next week. That will make a 2 loss ND fall out of contention and plop Miami somewhere around the #10 ranking most likely. I'd love to see Pitt pull off their annual big upset and do it on Miami for us. Cold game in November in Pittsburgh, a game Miami will look past to the ACC Champ game. How much fun would that be if Pitt pulls off the upset to get PSU closer to the playoff! Narduzzi wouldn't know what to do with himself.
Lets shift to the SEC. Even if Georgia and Bama trip up before the SEC championship game I see them easily being put in front of all the other 1 loss teams and maybe an undefeated Wisconsin or Miami. SEC will be in the playoff. The goal is for them to only get 1 in. If both GA and Bama are undefeated for the SEC champ game then they will both make the playoff. NO doubt. Auburn could play the ultimate spoiler here. Root for LSU to win this weekend and then Auburn to upset Bama in the Iron bowl. A 2 loss Bama could fall behind Penn State. I just don't see this happening. Auburn also hosts Geogia next week. Could Auburn take down both Georgia and Bama in the same year? That would be crazy.
Pac12 the only thing we need is Washington to lose again. Stanford to beat ND would be great too. Otherwise I think Pac12 is on the outside looking in this year and rightfully so.
B1G - Penn State wins out and wins big. I'd like to see Wisconsin lose to Michigan. That helps PSU. Iowa beating them would also be nice. We don't want Wisconsin going undefeated and playing the 13th game. 12-1 vs 11-1 may not help PSU especially if they play well against Ohio State while we watch at home.
I'd love for us to go back to the B1G champ game but I see Ohio State running the table honestly. I think we will take care of business against Mich State and then Ohio State will absolutely murder them at home. Michigan will play them tough but JT is going to do what Trace did and embarrass them in the 2nd half. I hate to say it but I don't see a clear path for us. Iowa winning this week makes things quite interesting and it's set up again for some late season magic in Iowa City, but I'll be surprised if it turns out that way. If Iowa wins all hell will break lose and we are going to become the biggest Spartan and Wolverine fans ever.
So to recap:
Ohio State losing twice is only way to get to B1G (but you already knew that)
For the playoff the most likely pathway is as follows:
This Week:
Iowa State loses to WVU (likely)
Oklahoma loses to Ok State (likely)
Miami loses to Va Tech (maybe)
Clemson loses to NC State (maybe)
Ohio State loses to Iowa (not likely)
Alabama loses to LSU (maybe)
Penn State moves to #6 in rankings with Oklahoma dropping out. If Clemson loses PSU to #5
Next Week:
ND loses to Miami (likely)
Oklahoma State loses to Iowa State (likely)
Oklahoma beats TCU (likely)
Ohio State loses to Michigan State (maybe)
Alabama loses to MS State (maybe)
Georgia loses to Auburn (maybe)
Penn State moves to #5 with Notre Dame dropping out unless Clemson loss in previous week
The following week
Wisconsin loses to Michigan (maybe)
The last week of the year
Ohio State loses to Michigan (anything is possible)
Miami loses to Pitt (not likely)
Clemson loses to SC (not likely)
Bama loses to Auburn (maybe)
Championship weekend
Clemson/NC State vs Miami - Hopefully Clemson is out by this point but if not a 2 loss Miami win is big for PSU
Ohio State vs Wisconsin
Georgia vs Alabama (both likely to make it)
B1G 12 doesn't matter
Pac 12 doesn't matter
I could very easily see the playoff being 2 B1G vs 2 SEC.
Those are my thoughts.
One thing to keep in mind in all of this. Penn State, Ohio State, Alabama, Texas, Georgia, USC, Michigan are schools that bring big TV money and high ratings. The CFP committee releases their rankings on ESPN. ESPN owns the CFP. ESPN wants good ratings. There is another reason Miami and Wisconsin are undefeated and ranked behind PSU. The average fan will immediately look at strength of schedule and say thats the key piece, but don't discount the fact that the CFP committee wants big ratings for games. Miami doesn't bring in big ratings and neither does a school like Oklahoma State or Washington. The power schools will get an extra boost by the committee. Remember $$ controls everything.
A lot needs to happen but Penn State honestly couldn't be sitting any better than they are right now with one loss. Just need to get to #4. And everyone in front of us has some legit games still to be played. We just need to crush some people.
Keep your heads up boys, lots of football to be played still.
I know we all want the playoff so lets dive into this and really look at what needs to happen for PSU to get there.
This weekend could shake things up. If you are hoping for a playoff run then you should really be rooting for Oklahoma State, NC State and West Virginia. I believe WVU will take care of business at home against Iowa State. That takes them out and devalues TCU and Oklahoma. We need Oklahoma State to beat Oklahoma and will drop OU out of the playoff hunt with 2 losses. PSU will move up. I do not think that Oklahoma State will jump in front of us if they beat Oklahoma. If they win out and win the Big 12 that's a different story, but I just don't see the committee valuing the Big12 this year and if Iowa State loses to WVU it will severely devalue their wins over Oklahoma and TCU. Next week Iowa State hosts Ok State. Let Oklahoma State win this week and then lose next week in Ames. That is ideal for PSU.
If NC State pulls off a monster victory over Clemson then things get really interesting. Where would Clemson fall? Behind PSU. Would Miami and Wisconsin land in front of them? Penn State needs Clemson to lose and take them out of the ACC champ game That would help lower the quality of win for Miami in the ACC champ game. Speaking of Miami a win by VaTech this weekend is very big for PSU. The goal is to take out as many potential 13th game outliers. If PSU can't get to the B1G champ game they need the winners of those conference games or at least those that play in it to have as many losses as possible. The 13th point does not favor Penn State. Miami also hosts Notre Dame next week which is also very bad for Penn State. If Miami beats Notre Dame and beats Va Tech this week they will 100% jump PSU. That's two big wins back to back. Hope that Miami loses this week and then Beats ND next week. That will make a 2 loss ND fall out of contention and plop Miami somewhere around the #10 ranking most likely. I'd love to see Pitt pull off their annual big upset and do it on Miami for us. Cold game in November in Pittsburgh, a game Miami will look past to the ACC Champ game. How much fun would that be if Pitt pulls off the upset to get PSU closer to the playoff! Narduzzi wouldn't know what to do with himself.
Lets shift to the SEC. Even if Georgia and Bama trip up before the SEC championship game I see them easily being put in front of all the other 1 loss teams and maybe an undefeated Wisconsin or Miami. SEC will be in the playoff. The goal is for them to only get 1 in. If both GA and Bama are undefeated for the SEC champ game then they will both make the playoff. NO doubt. Auburn could play the ultimate spoiler here. Root for LSU to win this weekend and then Auburn to upset Bama in the Iron bowl. A 2 loss Bama could fall behind Penn State. I just don't see this happening. Auburn also hosts Geogia next week. Could Auburn take down both Georgia and Bama in the same year? That would be crazy.
Pac12 the only thing we need is Washington to lose again. Stanford to beat ND would be great too. Otherwise I think Pac12 is on the outside looking in this year and rightfully so.
B1G - Penn State wins out and wins big. I'd like to see Wisconsin lose to Michigan. That helps PSU. Iowa beating them would also be nice. We don't want Wisconsin going undefeated and playing the 13th game. 12-1 vs 11-1 may not help PSU especially if they play well against Ohio State while we watch at home.
I'd love for us to go back to the B1G champ game but I see Ohio State running the table honestly. I think we will take care of business against Mich State and then Ohio State will absolutely murder them at home. Michigan will play them tough but JT is going to do what Trace did and embarrass them in the 2nd half. I hate to say it but I don't see a clear path for us. Iowa winning this week makes things quite interesting and it's set up again for some late season magic in Iowa City, but I'll be surprised if it turns out that way. If Iowa wins all hell will break lose and we are going to become the biggest Spartan and Wolverine fans ever.
So to recap:
Ohio State losing twice is only way to get to B1G (but you already knew that)
For the playoff the most likely pathway is as follows:
This Week:
Iowa State loses to WVU (likely)
Oklahoma loses to Ok State (likely)
Miami loses to Va Tech (maybe)
Clemson loses to NC State (maybe)
Ohio State loses to Iowa (not likely)
Alabama loses to LSU (maybe)
Penn State moves to #6 in rankings with Oklahoma dropping out. If Clemson loses PSU to #5
Next Week:
ND loses to Miami (likely)
Oklahoma State loses to Iowa State (likely)
Oklahoma beats TCU (likely)
Ohio State loses to Michigan State (maybe)
Alabama loses to MS State (maybe)
Georgia loses to Auburn (maybe)
Penn State moves to #5 with Notre Dame dropping out unless Clemson loss in previous week
The following week
Wisconsin loses to Michigan (maybe)
The last week of the year
Ohio State loses to Michigan (anything is possible)
Miami loses to Pitt (not likely)
Clemson loses to SC (not likely)
Bama loses to Auburn (maybe)
Championship weekend
Clemson/NC State vs Miami - Hopefully Clemson is out by this point but if not a 2 loss Miami win is big for PSU
Ohio State vs Wisconsin
Georgia vs Alabama (both likely to make it)
B1G 12 doesn't matter
Pac 12 doesn't matter
I could very easily see the playoff being 2 B1G vs 2 SEC.
Those are my thoughts.
One thing to keep in mind in all of this. Penn State, Ohio State, Alabama, Texas, Georgia, USC, Michigan are schools that bring big TV money and high ratings. The CFP committee releases their rankings on ESPN. ESPN owns the CFP. ESPN wants good ratings. There is another reason Miami and Wisconsin are undefeated and ranked behind PSU. The average fan will immediately look at strength of schedule and say thats the key piece, but don't discount the fact that the CFP committee wants big ratings for games. Miami doesn't bring in big ratings and neither does a school like Oklahoma State or Washington. The power schools will get an extra boost by the committee. Remember $$ controls everything.
A lot needs to happen but Penn State honestly couldn't be sitting any better than they are right now with one loss. Just need to get to #4. And everyone in front of us has some legit games still to be played. We just need to crush some people.
Keep your heads up boys, lots of football to be played still.
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