Something to be weary of: conference game losers fall in rankings...

[djm_psu_alum]

The more I've thought about it, the more I think we get screwed out of the Rose Bowl. I also think we get screwed out of the Orange/Cotton as well but I'll save that.

I think the whole "no way they put a 3 loss Wisconsin over a 2 loss Penn State" is really naive considering the way the CFP talked up Wisconsin on Tuesday night. Our hope lies in a OSU blow out that will push Wisconsin down but what constitutes a blow out?

Related to that, the CFP tends not to penalize conference game losers that much and considering we are 2 spots below Wisconsin, that is very significant.

2014 - Arizona dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after Pac12 champ game loss to Oregon 51-13
2014 - Missouri stayed at #16 after SEC champ game loss to Alabama 42-13
2014 - Georgia Tech dropped 1 spot (#10 to #11) after ACC loss to FSU 37-35
2014 - Wisconsin dropped 5 spots (#13 to #18) after B10 loss to OSU 59-0
2015 - USC dropped 5 spots (#20-#25) after Pac12 loss to Stanford 41-22
2015 - Florida dropped 1 spot (#17 to #18) after SEC loss to Alabama 29-15
2015 - UNC stayed at #10 after loss to Clemson in ACC 45-37
2015 - Iowa dropped 1 spot to #5 after B10 loss to MSU 16-13
2016 - VaTech went up 1 spot (#23 to #22) after loss to Clemson in ACC 42-37
2016 - Florida dropped 2 spots (#15 to #17) in SEC loss to Alabama 54-16
2016 - Colorado dropped 2 spots (#8 to #10) in Pac12 loss to UWash 41-10
2016 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#6 to #8) after B10 loss to PSU 38-31
2017 - Miami dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after ACC loss to Clemson 38-3
2017 - Auburn dropped 5 spots (#2 to #7) after SEC loss to Georgia 28-7
2017 - TCU dropped 4 spots (#11 to #15) after Big 12 loss to Oklahoma 41-17
2017 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#4 to #6) after B10 loss to OSU 27-21
2017 - Stanford dropped 1 spot (#12 to #13) after Pac 12 loss to USC 31-28
2018 - Georgia dropped a spot (#4 to #5) after SEC loss to Alabama 35-28
2018 - Pittsburgh was unranked before and after ACC champ game to Clemson
2018 - Texas dropped 1 spot (#14 to #15) after Big 12 game to Oklahoma 39-27
2018 - Northwestern dropped 1 spot (#21 to #22) after B10 loss to OSU 45-27
2018 - Utah stayed at #17 after loss to UWash in Pac 12 10-3

If we are solely relying on 2-loss vs 3 loss argument and/or highest ranked team, PSU needs to make up a combination of 3 spots (either through rising or Wisconsin falling) to be one ahead of them. 10 out 21 (taking last year's ACC game out of the analysis since Pitt was unranked before and after) resulted in only a drop of 1 spot, stayed the same, or went up 1 spot by the conference champ loser. 4 out of those were games where the result was 10+ points.

I think there is solid data that outside of a 59-0 blowout, Wisc could only drop 1 spot.

 

[BornALion]

Me thinks you think too much

 

[Hershey Lion]

The more I've thought about it, the more I think we get screwed out of the Rose Bowl. I also think we get screwed out of the Orange/Cotton as well but I'll save that.

I think the whole "no way they put a 3 loss Wisconsin over a 2 loss Penn State" is really naive considering the way the CFP talked up Wisconsin on Tuesday night. Our hope lies in a OSU blow out that will push Wisconsin down but what constitutes a blow out?

Related to that, the CFP tends not to penalize conference game losers that much and considering we are 2 spots below Wisconsin, that is very significant.

2014 - Arizona dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after Pac12 champ game loss to Oregon 51-13
2014 - Missouri stayed at #16 after SEC champ game loss to Alabama 42-13
2014 - Georgia Tech dropped 1 spot (#10 to #11) after ACC loss to FSU 37-35
2014 - Wisconsin dropped 5 spots (#13 to #18) after B10 loss to OSU 59-0
2015 - USC dropped 5 spots (#20-#25) after Pac12 loss to Stanford 41-22
2015 - Florida dropped 1 spot (#17 to #18) after SEC loss to Alabama 29-15
2015 - UNC stayed at #10 after loss to Clemson in ACC 45-37
2015 - Iowa dropped 1 spot to #5 after B10 loss to MSU 16-13
2016 - VaTech went up 1 spot (#23 to #22) after loss to Clemson in ACC 42-37
2016 - Florida dropped 2 spots (#15 to #17) in SEC loss to Alabama 54-16
2016 - Colorado dropped 2 spots (#8 to #10) in Pac12 loss to UWash 41-10
2016 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#6 to #8) after B10 loss to PSU 38-31
2017 - Miami dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after ACC loss to Clemson 38-3
2017 - Auburn dropped 5 spots (#2 to #7) after SEC loss to Georgia 28-7
2017 - TCU dropped 4 spots (#11 to #15) after Big 12 loss to Oklahoma 41-17
2017 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#4 to #6) after B10 loss to OSU 27-21
2017 - Stanford dropped 1 spot (#12 to #13) after Pac 12 loss to USC 31-28
2018 - Georgia dropped a spot (#4 to #5) after SEC loss to Alabama 35-28
2018 - Pittsburgh was unranked before and after ACC champ game to Clemson
2018 - Texas dropped 1 spot (#14 to #15) after Big 12 game to Oklahoma 39-27
2018 - Northwestern dropped 1 spot (#21 to #22) after B10 loss to OSU 45-27
2018 - Utah stayed at #17 after loss to UWash in Pac 12 10-3

If we are solely relying on 2-loss vs 3 loss argument and/or highest ranked team, PSU needs to make up a combination of 3 spots (either through rising or Wisconsin falling) to be one ahead of them. 10 out 21 (taking last year's ACC game out of the analysis since Pitt was unranked before and after) resulted in only a drop of 1 spot, stayed the same, or went up 1 spot by the conference champ loser. 4 out of those were games where the result was 10+ points.

I think there is solid data that outside of a 59-0 blowout, Wisc could only drop 1 spot.

Lot of work there.... to be wrong

 

[jmorovich]

If I remember correctly Michigan only dropped one spot after getting curb stomped by OSU last week.

One spot would keep Wisconsin head of PSU.

I’m not saying it’s gonna happen but I’m prepared

 

[WDLion]

The more I've thought about it, the more I think we get screwed out of the Rose Bowl. I also think we get screwed out of the Orange/Cotton as well but I'll save that.

I think the whole "no way they put a 3 loss Wisconsin over a 2 loss Penn State" is really naive considering the way the CFP talked up Wisconsin on Tuesday night. Our hope lies in a OSU blow out that will push Wisconsin down but what constitutes a blow out?

Related to that, the CFP tends not to penalize conference game losers that much and considering we are 2 spots below Wisconsin, that is very significant.

2014 - Arizona dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after Pac12 champ game loss to Oregon 51-13
2014 - Missouri stayed at #16 after SEC champ game loss to Alabama 42-13
2014 - Georgia Tech dropped 1 spot (#10 to #11) after ACC loss to FSU 37-35
2014 - Wisconsin dropped 5 spots (#13 to #18) after B10 loss to OSU 59-0
2015 - USC dropped 5 spots (#20-#25) after Pac12 loss to Stanford 41-22
2015 - Florida dropped 1 spot (#17 to #18) after SEC loss to Alabama 29-15
2015 - UNC stayed at #10 after loss to Clemson in ACC 45-37
2015 - Iowa dropped 1 spot to #5 after B10 loss to MSU 16-13
2016 - VaTech went up 1 spot (#23 to #22) after loss to Clemson in ACC 42-37
2016 - Florida dropped 2 spots (#15 to #17) in SEC loss to Alabama 54-16
2016 - Colorado dropped 2 spots (#8 to #10) in Pac12 loss to UWash 41-10
2016 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#6 to #8) after B10 loss to PSU 38-31
2017 - Miami dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after ACC loss to Clemson 38-3
2017 - Auburn dropped 5 spots (#2 to #7) after SEC loss to Georgia 28-7
2017 - TCU dropped 4 spots (#11 to #15) after Big 12 loss to Oklahoma 41-17
2017 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#4 to #6) after B10 loss to OSU 27-21
2017 - Stanford dropped 1 spot (#12 to #13) after Pac 12 loss to USC 31-28
2018 - Georgia dropped a spot (#4 to #5) after SEC loss to Alabama 35-28
2018 - Pittsburgh was unranked before and after ACC champ game to Clemson
2018 - Texas dropped 1 spot (#14 to #15) after Big 12 game to Oklahoma 39-27
2018 - Northwestern dropped 1 spot (#21 to #22) after B10 loss to OSU 45-27
2018 - Utah stayed at #17 after loss to UWash in Pac 12 10-3

If we are solely relying on 2-loss vs 3 loss argument and/or highest ranked team, PSU needs to make up a combination of 3 spots (either through rising or Wisconsin falling) to be one ahead of them. 10 out 21 (taking last year's ACC game out of the analysis since Pitt was unranked before and after) resulted in only a drop of 1 spot, stayed the same, or went up 1 spot by the conference champ loser. 4 out of those were games where the result was 10+ points.

I think there is solid data that outside of a 59-0 blowout, Wisc could only drop 1 spot.

I'm weary of being leery.

 

[10 Years After]

I'm weary of being leery.

I'm wary of being weary

 

[marshall23]

Getting leery of the weary

 

[10 Years After]

Is it better to be weary or leery? Or wary for that matter.

 

[PeetzPoolBoy]

The more I've thought about it, the more I think we get screwed out of the Rose Bowl. I also think we get screwed out of the Orange/Cotton as well but I'll save that.

I think the whole "no way they put a 3 loss Wisconsin over a 2 loss Penn State" is really naive considering the way the CFP talked up Wisconsin on Tuesday night. Our hope lies in a OSU blow out that will push Wisconsin down but what constitutes a blow out?

Related to that, the CFP tends not to penalize conference game losers that much and considering we are 2 spots below Wisconsin, that is very significant.

2014 - Arizona dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after Pac12 champ game loss to Oregon 51-13
2014 - Missouri stayed at #16 after SEC champ game loss to Alabama 42-13
2014 - Georgia Tech dropped 1 spot (#10 to #11) after ACC loss to FSU 37-35
2014 - Wisconsin dropped 5 spots (#13 to #18) after B10 loss to OSU 59-0
2015 - USC dropped 5 spots (#20-#25) after Pac12 loss to Stanford 41-22
2015 - Florida dropped 1 spot (#17 to #18) after SEC loss to Alabama 29-15
2015 - UNC stayed at #10 after loss to Clemson in ACC 45-37
2015 - Iowa dropped 1 spot to #5 after B10 loss to MSU 16-13
2016 - VaTech went up 1 spot (#23 to #22) after loss to Clemson in ACC 42-37
2016 - Florida dropped 2 spots (#15 to #17) in SEC loss to Alabama 54-16
2016 - Colorado dropped 2 spots (#8 to #10) in Pac12 loss to UWash 41-10
2016 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#6 to #8) after B10 loss to PSU 38-31
2017 - Miami dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after ACC loss to Clemson 38-3
2017 - Auburn dropped 5 spots (#2 to #7) after SEC loss to Georgia 28-7
2017 - TCU dropped 4 spots (#11 to #15) after Big 12 loss to Oklahoma 41-17
2017 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#4 to #6) after B10 loss to OSU 27-21
2017 - Stanford dropped 1 spot (#12 to #13) after Pac 12 loss to USC 31-28
2018 - Georgia dropped a spot (#4 to #5) after SEC loss to Alabama 35-28
2018 - Pittsburgh was unranked before and after ACC champ game to Clemson
2018 - Texas dropped 1 spot (#14 to #15) after Big 12 game to Oklahoma 39-27
2018 - Northwestern dropped 1 spot (#21 to #22) after B10 loss to OSU 45-27
2018 - Utah stayed at #17 after loss to UWash in Pac 12 10-3

If we are solely relying on 2-loss vs 3 loss argument and/or highest ranked team, PSU needs to make up a combination of 3 spots (either through rising or Wisconsin falling) to be one ahead of them. 10 out 21 (taking last year's ACC game out of the analysis since Pitt was unranked before and after) resulted in only a drop of 1 spot, stayed the same, or went up 1 spot by the conference champ loser. 4 out of those were games where the result was 10+ points.

I think there is solid data that outside of a 59-0 blowout, Wisc could only drop 1 spot.

Good research

 

[MontereyLion]

Any loss to Ohio State by Wisconsin which is greater then 11 points is to our advantage. That means Wisconsin has played Ohio State twice and lost both times by more then we lost. The bigger the loss, of course, the better.

 

[MacNit07]

If I remember correctly Michigan only dropped one spot after getting curb stomped by OSU last week.

One spot would keep Wisconsin head of PSU.

I’m not saying it’s gonna happen but I’m prepared

Be prepared to be Tampa bound. And to put the extra screws to us, Delaney will see if can dial up the Tennessee Volunteers as an opponent!

 

[PSU87]

Since the Rose Bowl can pick who they want regardless of ranking it's hard to worry about it

 

[interrobang]

Here's what I get out of that. If you're in the top 10, you're likely to drop 2+ spots. If you're not in the top 10, the committee is more forgiving.

2014 - Arizona dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after Pac12 champ game loss to Oregon 51-13
2015 - UNC stayed at #10 after loss to Clemson in ACC 45-37
2015 - Iowa dropped 1 spot to #5 after B10 loss to MSU 16-13
2016 - Colorado dropped 2 spots (#8 to #10) in Pac12 loss to UWash 41-10
2016 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#6 to #8) after B10 loss to PSU 38-31
2017 - Miami dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after ACC loss to Clemson 38-3
2017 - Auburn dropped 5 spots (#2 to #7) after SEC loss to Georgia 28-7
2017 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#4 to #6) after B10 loss to OSU 27-21
2018 - Georgia dropped a spot (#4 to #5) after SEC loss to Alabama 35-28

 

[Paguy35]

Any loss to Ohio State by Wisconsin which is greater then 11 points is to our advantage. That means Wisconsin has played Ohio State twice and lost both times by more then we lost. The bigger the loss, of course, the better.

Agreed, plus our 2nd loss was at least to a ranked opponent, not 6-6 Illinois.

 

[cjrugger]

The more I've thought about it, the more I think we get screwed out of the Rose Bowl. I also think we get screwed out of the Orange/Cotton as well but I'll save that.

I think the whole "no way they put a 3 loss Wisconsin over a 2 loss Penn State" is really naive considering the way the CFP talked up Wisconsin on Tuesday night. Our hope lies in a OSU blow out that will push Wisconsin down but what constitutes a blow out?

Related to that, the CFP tends not to penalize conference game losers that much and considering we are 2 spots below Wisconsin, that is very significant.

2014 - Arizona dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after Pac12 champ game loss to Oregon 51-13
2014 - Missouri stayed at #16 after SEC champ game loss to Alabama 42-13
2014 - Georgia Tech dropped 1 spot (#10 to #11) after ACC loss to FSU 37-35
2014 - Wisconsin dropped 5 spots (#13 to #18) after B10 loss to OSU 59-0
2015 - USC dropped 5 spots (#20-#25) after Pac12 loss to Stanford 41-22
2015 - Florida dropped 1 spot (#17 to #18) after SEC loss to Alabama 29-15
2015 - UNC stayed at #10 after loss to Clemson in ACC 45-37
2015 - Iowa dropped 1 spot to #5 after B10 loss to MSU 16-13
2016 - VaTech went up 1 spot (#23 to #22) after loss to Clemson in ACC 42-37
2016 - Florida dropped 2 spots (#15 to #17) in SEC loss to Alabama 54-16
2016 - Colorado dropped 2 spots (#8 to #10) in Pac12 loss to UWash 41-10
2016 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#6 to #8) after B10 loss to PSU 38-31
2017 - Miami dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after ACC loss to Clemson 38-3
2017 - Auburn dropped 5 spots (#2 to #7) after SEC loss to Georgia 28-7
2017 - TCU dropped 4 spots (#11 to #15) after Big 12 loss to Oklahoma 41-17
2017 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#4 to #6) after B10 loss to OSU 27-21
2017 - Stanford dropped 1 spot (#12 to #13) after Pac 12 loss to USC 31-28
2018 - Georgia dropped a spot (#4 to #5) after SEC loss to Alabama 35-28
2018 - Pittsburgh was unranked before and after ACC champ game to Clemson
2018 - Texas dropped 1 spot (#14 to #15) after Big 12 game to Oklahoma 39-27
2018 - Northwestern dropped 1 spot (#21 to #22) after B10 loss to OSU 45-27
2018 - Utah stayed at #17 after loss to UWash in Pac 12 10-3

If we are solely relying on 2-loss vs 3 loss argument and/or highest ranked team, PSU needs to make up a combination of 3 spots (either through rising or Wisconsin falling) to be one ahead of them. 10 out 21 (taking last year's ACC game out of the analysis since Pitt was unranked before and after) resulted in only a drop of 1 spot, stayed the same, or went up 1 spot by the conference champ loser. 4 out of those were games where the result was 10+ points.

I think there is solid data that outside of a 59-0 blowout, Wisc could only drop 1 spot.

we only need to make up 2 spots.

2017 Wisconsin looks like a pretty good example

 

[artsandletters]

I'm weary of being leery.

I’m tired of this thread.

 

[AWS1022]

I'm wary of being weary

She gets wooly, my girl gets wooly.

 

[AWS1022]

The more I've thought about it, the more I think we get screwed out of the Rose Bowl. I also think we get screwed out of the Orange/Cotton as well but I'll save that.

I think the whole "no way they put a 3 loss Wisconsin over a 2 loss Penn State" is really naive considering the way the CFP talked up Wisconsin on Tuesday night. Our hope lies in a OSU blow out that will push Wisconsin down but what constitutes a blow out?

Related to that, the CFP tends not to penalize conference game losers that much and considering we are 2 spots below Wisconsin, that is very significant.

2014 - Arizona dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after Pac12 champ game loss to Oregon 51-13
2014 - Missouri stayed at #16 after SEC champ game loss to Alabama 42-13
2014 - Georgia Tech dropped 1 spot (#10 to #11) after ACC loss to FSU 37-35
2014 - Wisconsin dropped 5 spots (#13 to #18) after B10 loss to OSU 59-0
2015 - USC dropped 5 spots (#20-#25) after Pac12 loss to Stanford 41-22
2015 - Florida dropped 1 spot (#17 to #18) after SEC loss to Alabama 29-15
2015 - UNC stayed at #10 after loss to Clemson in ACC 45-37
2015 - Iowa dropped 1 spot to #5 after B10 loss to MSU 16-13
2016 - VaTech went up 1 spot (#23 to #22) after loss to Clemson in ACC 42-37
2016 - Florida dropped 2 spots (#15 to #17) in SEC loss to Alabama 54-16
2016 - Colorado dropped 2 spots (#8 to #10) in Pac12 loss to UWash 41-10
2016 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#6 to #8) after B10 loss to PSU 38-31
2017 - Miami dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after ACC loss to Clemson 38-3
2017 - Auburn dropped 5 spots (#2 to #7) after SEC loss to Georgia 28-7
2017 - TCU dropped 4 spots (#11 to #15) after Big 12 loss to Oklahoma 41-17
2017 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#4 to #6) after B10 loss to OSU 27-21
2017 - Stanford dropped 1 spot (#12 to #13) after Pac 12 loss to USC 31-28
2018 - Georgia dropped a spot (#4 to #5) after SEC loss to Alabama 35-28
2018 - Pittsburgh was unranked before and after ACC champ game to Clemson
2018 - Texas dropped 1 spot (#14 to #15) after Big 12 game to Oklahoma 39-27
2018 - Northwestern dropped 1 spot (#21 to #22) after B10 loss to OSU 45-27
2018 - Utah stayed at #17 after loss to UWash in Pac 12 10-3

If we are solely relying on 2-loss vs 3 loss argument and/or highest ranked team, PSU needs to make up a combination of 3 spots (either through rising or Wisconsin falling) to be one ahead of them. 10 out 21 (taking last year's ACC game out of the analysis since Pitt was unranked before and after) resulted in only a drop of 1 spot, stayed the same, or went up 1 spot by the conference champ loser. 4 out of those were games where the result was 10+ points.

I think there is solid data that outside of a 59-0 blowout, Wisc could only drop 1 spot.

Why worry about it? There’s nothing we can do.

 

[anon_1eeb2b426hv3y]

The more I've thought about it, the more I think we get screwed out of the Rose Bowl. I also think we get screwed out of the Orange/Cotton as well but I'll save that.

I think the whole "no way they put a 3 loss Wisconsin over a 2 loss Penn State" is really naive considering the way the CFP talked up Wisconsin on Tuesday night. Our hope lies in a OSU blow out that will push Wisconsin down but what constitutes a blow out?

Related to that, the CFP tends not to penalize conference game losers that much and considering we are 2 spots below Wisconsin, that is very significant.

2014 - Arizona dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after Pac12 champ game loss to Oregon 51-13
2014 - Missouri stayed at #16 after SEC champ game loss to Alabama 42-13
2014 - Georgia Tech dropped 1 spot (#10 to #11) after ACC loss to FSU 37-35
2014 - Wisconsin dropped 5 spots (#13 to #18) after B10 loss to OSU 59-0
2015 - USC dropped 5 spots (#20-#25) after Pac12 loss to Stanford 41-22
2015 - Florida dropped 1 spot (#17 to #18) after SEC loss to Alabama 29-15
2015 - UNC stayed at #10 after loss to Clemson in ACC 45-37
2015 - Iowa dropped 1 spot to #5 after B10 loss to MSU 16-13
2016 - VaTech went up 1 spot (#23 to #22) after loss to Clemson in ACC 42-37
2016 - Florida dropped 2 spots (#15 to #17) in SEC loss to Alabama 54-16
2016 - Colorado dropped 2 spots (#8 to #10) in Pac12 loss to UWash 41-10
2016 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#6 to #8) after B10 loss to PSU 38-31
2017 - Miami dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after ACC loss to Clemson 38-3
2017 - Auburn dropped 5 spots (#2 to #7) after SEC loss to Georgia 28-7
2017 - TCU dropped 4 spots (#11 to #15) after Big 12 loss to Oklahoma 41-17
2017 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#4 to #6) after B10 loss to OSU 27-21
2017 - Stanford dropped 1 spot (#12 to #13) after Pac 12 loss to USC 31-28
2018 - Georgia dropped a spot (#4 to #5) after SEC loss to Alabama 35-28
2018 - Pittsburgh was unranked before and after ACC champ game to Clemson
2018 - Texas dropped 1 spot (#14 to #15) after Big 12 game to Oklahoma 39-27
2018 - Northwestern dropped 1 spot (#21 to #22) after B10 loss to OSU 45-27
2018 - Utah stayed at #17 after loss to UWash in Pac 12 10-3

If we are solely relying on 2-loss vs 3 loss argument and/or highest ranked team, PSU needs to make up a combination of 3 spots (either through rising or Wisconsin falling) to be one ahead of them. 10 out 21 (taking last year's ACC game out of the analysis since Pitt was unranked before and after) resulted in only a drop of 1 spot, stayed the same, or went up 1 spot by the conference champ loser. 4 out of those were games where the result was 10+ points.

I think there is solid data that outside of a 59-0 blowout, Wisc could only drop 1 spot.

Where in this analysis do you consider the teams ranked around these losers? It’s not just lose and drop. It’s lose and have your ranking adjusted based on any change in your perceived worthiness of your ranking relative to the perceived worthiness of those ranked around you.

 

[anon_1eeb2b426hv3y]

Agreed, plus our 2nd loss was at least to a ranked opponent, not 6-6 Illinois.

we only need to make up 2 spots.

2017 Wisconsin looks like a pretty good example

Very good point. They moved ahead mostly based on their convincing win over a team that beat us. If they lose badly again on a neutral field to a team we played close, how does that not impact their perceived strength relative to ours?

 

[RTRMR]

IMHO, there’s ZERO way we DON’T make a NY6.
The below is assuming Wisconsin loses.
IF UGA wins, the top 4 stay the same.
5 and 6 will be winners of PAC12/BIG 12.
7 Will be UF
We’ll be 8
9/10 will 2 of these teams: Wisc/if Utah loses/Auburn/Bama

If UGA Loses big, they may drop far.
If UGA loses, the top 3 stay the same, and Oklahoma or Utah go to CFP
We’re maybe at 7, if Utes or Dawgs get woodshedded.

We move up at least 2, above the Baylor/OU loser, and Wisc.
We have a sight chance at moving up 3, depending upon If any teams below us get boat raced.
So, at absolute worst, we’re sitting at 8 on Sunday, with a slight shot at 7!
There’s NO WAY a 7/8 PSU doesn’t make NY6!

If Ohio State wins, we’re in Rose!
If Ohio State wins, and somehow Wisconsin gets Rose, we’re in Orange!
If Wisconsin wins, they get automatic bid to Rose, and we get Orange!

But, again, there’s NO WAY a 7/8 PSU goes to Outback!!!!

 

[LionRange]

It depends on the teams around Wisconsin.

If Wisky gets pounded I’m pretty sure they will be out of the running. That would be two chances they had to prove they belonged on the same field as a top team. If they can’t show they belong on the same field as a top team than why the heck should they go to one of the top bowls in the land ? Especially at 10-3 ?

They need to keep it close or win . That’s their only way in.

And your example is great but it does show a lot of top teams taking tumbles in the top 10. Sometimes not even with super significant margins. We just need the two spot Wisconsin drop from 8 to 10. Seems like it’s a common occurrence based on your example

 

[Storm at Sea]

Bottom Line - even though it won't stop the meatheads from tripping over their own dicks.

The Worst Case Scenario for PSU is:
1) God Forbid - UW goes to the Rose Bowl.....
2) Utah gets into the Invitational (meaning Oregon gets a NY 6 spot)
3) Oklahoma and Baylor play to a tie ..... oh, wait, that can't happen. Scratch that one.

In that case, PSU being out of the NY 6 would require FOUR teams ranked below them (PSU will be no worse than #9 on Sunday) to get INTO the NY6 Bowls (because 6 games = 12 teams ).

The possible "lower ranked" - in the worst case scenario - that could get into the NY6 are:
You've got (1) UVA (or whomever from the ACC), (2) the Mid-Major Team, and (3) Oregon (if Utah gets into the Invitational)

And THAT is if everything breaks "against" PSU - which is probably less than a 5% chance - and even then, PSU is still in


It is just astounding how many folks can light their pants on fire over PSU being "snubbed"...….. but not one of them could tell you how that could happen (at least not with 1/2 a functioning brain cell)

You're assuming that top 12 CFP position automatically equates to a NY6 game. It's been discussed over and over again that a number of the bowls have more discretion than we'd like to admit. IMO, it's Wisky to the Rose. I don't like it one bit. I think we're Outback bound with Bama.

 

[lein]

A Baylor blowout loss allows PSU to climb one position without playing so long as Oregon doesn’t win and jump PSU.

So with all else remaining about the same, Ohio State embarrassing Wisconsin drops them at least one spot. If PSU climbs one spot because of Baylor losing, PSU ends up higher ranked.

I also think Wisconsin’s loss to 6-6 Illinois will weigh heavily against Wisconsin.

 

[lein]

You're assuming that top 12 CFP position automatically equates to a NY6 game. It's been discussed over and over again that a number of the bowls have more discretion than we'd like to admit. IMO, it's Wisky to the Rose. I don't like it one bit. I think we're Outback bound with Bama.

Bama in the Outback means the Orange, Sugar, Cotton, Cap One, and probably another SEC bowl passed on selecting them.

 

[PSU Dave]

The more I've thought about it, the more I think we get screwed out of the Rose Bowl. I also think we get screwed out of the Orange/Cotton as well but I'll save that.

I think the whole "no way they put a 3 loss Wisconsin over a 2 loss Penn State" is really naive considering the way the CFP talked up Wisconsin on Tuesday night. Our hope lies in a OSU blow out that will push Wisconsin down but what constitutes a blow out?

Related to that, the CFP tends not to penalize conference game losers that much and considering we are 2 spots below Wisconsin, that is very significant.

2014 - Arizona dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after Pac12 champ game loss to Oregon 51-13
2014 - Missouri stayed at #16 after SEC champ game loss to Alabama 42-13
2014 - Georgia Tech dropped 1 spot (#10 to #11) after ACC loss to FSU 37-35
2014 - Wisconsin dropped 5 spots (#13 to #18) after B10 loss to OSU 59-0
2015 - USC dropped 5 spots (#20-#25) after Pac12 loss to Stanford 41-22
2015 - Florida dropped 1 spot (#17 to #18) after SEC loss to Alabama 29-15
2015 - UNC stayed at #10 after loss to Clemson in ACC 45-37
2015 - Iowa dropped 1 spot to #5 after B10 loss to MSU 16-13
2016 - VaTech went up 1 spot (#23 to #22) after loss to Clemson in ACC 42-37
2016 - Florida dropped 2 spots (#15 to #17) in SEC loss to Alabama 54-16
2016 - Colorado dropped 2 spots (#8 to #10) in Pac12 loss to UWash 41-10
2016 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#6 to #8) after B10 loss to PSU 38-31
2017 - Miami dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after ACC loss to Clemson 38-3
2017 - Auburn dropped 5 spots (#2 to #7) after SEC loss to Georgia 28-7
2017 - TCU dropped 4 spots (#11 to #15) after Big 12 loss to Oklahoma 41-17
2017 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#4 to #6) after B10 loss to OSU 27-21
2017 - Stanford dropped 1 spot (#12 to #13) after Pac 12 loss to USC 31-28
2018 - Georgia dropped a spot (#4 to #5) after SEC loss to Alabama 35-28
2018 - Pittsburgh was unranked before and after ACC champ game to Clemson
2018 - Texas dropped 1 spot (#14 to #15) after Big 12 game to Oklahoma 39-27
2018 - Northwestern dropped 1 spot (#21 to #22) after B10 loss to OSU 45-27
2018 - Utah stayed at #17 after loss to UWash in Pac 12 10-3

If we are solely relying on 2-loss vs 3 loss argument and/or highest ranked team, PSU needs to make up a combination of 3 spots (either through rising or Wisconsin falling) to be one ahead of them. 10 out 21 (taking last year's ACC game out of the analysis since Pitt was unranked before and after) resulted in only a drop of 1 spot, stayed the same, or went up 1 spot by the conference champ loser. 4 out of those were games where the result was 10+ points.

I think there is solid data that outside of a 59-0 blowout, Wisc could only drop 1 spot.

If Wiscy ends up with 3 losses including a BAD loss - Illinois, no way the Rose takes them.

 

[interrobang]

It's really easy for PSU not to make the NY6 and it can include all the favorites winning this weekend.

 

[MtNittany]

I also think Wisconsin’s loss to 6-6 Illinois will weigh heavily against Wisconsin.

Why is it going to weigh more heavily this week than it did last week when the committee ranked them 2 spots ahead of PSU?

 

[WDLion]

Yawn. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz!

 

[Storm at Sea]

A Baylor blowout loss allows PSU to climb one position without playing so long as Oregon doesn’t win and jump PSU.

So with all else remaining about the same, Ohio State embarrassing Wisconsin drops them at least one spot. If PSU climbs one spot because of Baylor losing, PSU ends up higher ranked.

I also think Wisconsin’s loss to 6-6 Illinois will weigh heavily against Wisconsin.

1. CFP ranking does NOT determine NY6 games.

2. CFP to Wisky: "What Illinois game?" It's as if the game was never played. Talking heads dismissing it like it never happened. Similar to taking heads acting as if PSU never finished their game with Michigan. A perpetual rain delay. There are narratives that are simply inconsistent with reality. Fake sports news.

 

[wilbury]

Here's what I get out of that. If you're in the top 10, you're likely to drop 2+ spots. If you're not in the top 10, the committee is more forgiving.

2014 - Arizona dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after Pac12 champ game loss to Oregon 51-13
2015 - UNC stayed at #10 after loss to Clemson in ACC 45-37
2015 - Iowa dropped 1 spot to #5 after B10 loss to MSU 16-13
2016 - Colorado dropped 2 spots (#8 to #10) in Pac12 loss to UWash 41-10
2016 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#6 to #8) after B10 loss to PSU 38-31
2017 - Miami dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after ACC loss to Clemson 38-3
2017 - Auburn dropped 5 spots (#2 to #7) after SEC loss to Georgia 28-7
2017 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#4 to #6) after B10 loss to OSU 27-21
2018 - Georgia dropped a spot (#4 to #5) after SEC loss to Alabama 35-28

One of the most important things is that it's a rematch so it's not really a new data point.

 

[LemonEars]

If I remember correctly Michigan only dropped one spot after getting curb stomped by OSU last week.

One spot would keep Wisconsin head of PSU.

I’m not saying it’s gonna happen but I’m prepared

I think Wisconsin is doomed by their loss to Illinois. If they have 3 losses they will drop below us based on that awful loss.

 

[anon_1eeb2b426hv3y]

One of the most important things is that it's a rematch so it's not really a new data point.

If we’d play MN again and win, or lose for that matter, would it be a new data point?

And data points aren’t just Ws and Ls. They occur constantly throughout the game. Other times too. I’m still wondering when CJF is going to release videos of Cain bulldozing someone at full speed in practice to show he can actually play. Folks were slobbering over him u til he was hurt.

 

[interrobang]

One of the most important things is that it's a rematch so it's not really a new data point.

It very much is a new data point. Just because they played before doesn't change that. It's a different point in the season. It's a different venue. Different circumstances. Different stakes.

 

[wilbury]

I think Wisconsin is doomed by their loss to Illinois. If they have 3 losses they will drop below us based on that awful loss.

How? They had that loss before last week's rankings when they moved ahead of us.

 

[KnightSlayer]

How? They had that loss before last week's rankings when they moved ahead of us.

And you don't think the fact they are playing in the BIG conf champ game influenced that? The CFP committee has shown they will give a team a chance to prove themselves in an upcoming game. There is no harm in putting Wisconsin ahead of us heading into this game. If they beat OSU, then they deserved to be ahead of us. If they lose to OSU, then they can easily drop them down following the game. Do you really think they would have put PSU ahead of Clemson in the CFP poll if our remaining games were Purdue, Maryland, Indiana and Rutgers?

 

[LemonEars]

How? They had that loss before last week's rankings when they moved ahead of us.

That's because we both had two losses. After Saturday, Wisconsin will have 3 losses and will drop below us. If their 3 losses were Ohio State, Ohio State, and say Michigan then they would have a slight chance of being ranked above us. However, their losses will be Ohio State, Ohio State, and Illinois. That dooms them to being ranked below us.

Of course, if Wisconsin somehow miraculously wins on Saturday, then they will rightfully be ranked ahead of us.

 

[Samurailion]

We will go to Orange or Rose. Georgia will beat LSU tomorrow.

1. Ohio State
2. Clemson
3. LSU
4. UGA

This would then send Florida to Sugar, us or Wisconsin to Rose the other to Orange. I kinda want Orange.

 

[KnightSlayer]

So what happens when Virginia upsets Clemson?

OSU - Win
LSU - Win
Utah - Win
Oklahoma -Win

 

[wolve1972]

You guys are in a tough spot having to pull for scumbag OSU to win to make it to the Rose Bowl. Don't know if I could do that. GO BLUE