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Something to be weary of: conference game losers fall in rankings...

Why is it going to weigh more heavily this week than it did last week when the committee ranked them 2 spots ahead of PSU?
I honestly think Wisconsin got the bump because of the Minnesota win and the committee gave them the bump because of the conference championship game. I think it's one of those things like ok you won a game to make your conference championship and your playing a team that beat you by 31 , here is your chance to prove you deserve your ranking. If Wisconsin loses this week again i feel they fall because they had the chance and didnt perform and take advantage of it. Just my thought.
 
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The more I've thought about it, the more I think we get screwed out of the Rose Bowl. I also think we get screwed out of the Orange/Cotton as well but I'll save that.

I think the whole "no way they put a 3 loss Wisconsin over a 2 loss Penn State" is really naive considering the way the CFP talked up Wisconsin on Tuesday night. Our hope lies in a OSU blow out that will push Wisconsin down but what constitutes a blow out?

Related to that, the CFP tends not to penalize conference game losers that much and considering we are 2 spots below Wisconsin, that is very significant.

2014 - Arizona dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after Pac12 champ game loss to Oregon 51-13
2014 - Missouri stayed at #16 after SEC champ game loss to Alabama 42-13
2014 - Georgia Tech dropped 1 spot (#10 to #11) after ACC loss to FSU 37-35
2014 - Wisconsin dropped 5 spots (#13 to #18) after B10 loss to OSU 59-0
2015 - USC dropped 5 spots (#20-#25) after Pac12 loss to Stanford 41-22
2015 - Florida dropped 1 spot (#17 to #18) after SEC loss to Alabama 29-15
2015 - UNC stayed at #10 after loss to Clemson in ACC 45-37
2015 - Iowa dropped 1 spot to #5 after B10 loss to MSU 16-13
2016 - VaTech went up 1 spot (#23 to #22) after loss to Clemson in ACC 42-37
2016 - Florida dropped 2 spots (#15 to #17) in SEC loss to Alabama 54-16
2016 - Colorado dropped 2 spots (#8 to #10) in Pac12 loss to UWash 41-10
2016 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#6 to #8) after B10 loss to PSU 38-31
2017 - Miami dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after ACC loss to Clemson 38-3
2017 - Auburn dropped 5 spots (#2 to #7) after SEC loss to Georgia 28-7
2017 - TCU dropped 4 spots (#11 to #15) after Big 12 loss to Oklahoma 41-17
2017 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#4 to #6) after B10 loss to OSU 27-21
2017 - Stanford dropped 1 spot (#12 to #13) after Pac 12 loss to USC 31-28
2018 - Georgia dropped a spot (#4 to #5) after SEC loss to Alabama 35-28
2018 - Pittsburgh was unranked before and after ACC champ game to Clemson
2018 - Texas dropped 1 spot (#14 to #15) after Big 12 game to Oklahoma 39-27
2018 - Northwestern dropped 1 spot (#21 to #22) after B10 loss to OSU 45-27
2018 - Utah stayed at #17 after loss to UWash in Pac 12 10-3

If we are solely relying on 2-loss vs 3 loss argument and/or highest ranked team, PSU needs to make up a combination of 3 spots (either through rising or Wisconsin falling) to be one ahead of them. 10 out 21 (taking last year's ACC game out of the analysis since Pitt was unranked before and after) resulted in only a drop of 1 spot, stayed the same, or went up 1 spot by the conference champ loser. 4 out of those were games where the result was 10+ points.

I think there is solid data that outside of a 59-0 blowout, Wisc could only drop 1 spot.

Have the Bowl matchups been announced yet? Geez.
 
Here's what I get out of that. If you're in the top 10, you're likely to drop 2+ spots. If you're not in the top 10, the committee is more forgiving.

2014 - Arizona dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after Pac12 champ game loss to Oregon 51-13
2015 - UNC stayed at #10 after loss to Clemson in ACC 45-37
2015 - Iowa dropped 1 spot to #5 after B10 loss to MSU 16-13
2016 - Colorado dropped 2 spots (#8 to #10) in Pac12 loss to UWash 41-10
2016 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#6 to #8) after B10 loss to PSU 38-31
2017 - Miami dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after ACC loss to Clemson 38-3
2017 - Auburn dropped 5 spots (#2 to #7) after SEC loss to Georgia 28-7
2017 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#4 to #6) after B10 loss to OSU 27-21
2018 - Georgia dropped a spot (#4 to #5) after SEC loss to Alabama 35-28

This makes sense. Basically, if you're top 10, they thought you were a great team, but it turns out you weren't so you drop 2+. But if you were in the teens, they thought you were a good, not great, team, and you proved that by losing so you stay about the same. In other words, you weren't expected to win the game and that was already built into your ranking. For a top 10 team they were thinking you were really good and the CCG was the test to see if they were right or not.
 
The more I've thought about it, the more I think we get screwed out of the Rose Bowl. I also think we get screwed out of the Orange/Cotton as well but I'll save that.

I think the whole "no way they put a 3 loss Wisconsin over a 2 loss Penn State" is really naive considering the way the CFP talked up Wisconsin on Tuesday night. Our hope lies in a OSU blow out that will push Wisconsin down but what constitutes a blow out?

Related to that, the CFP tends not to penalize conference game losers that much and considering we are 2 spots below Wisconsin, that is very significant.

2014 - Arizona dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after Pac12 champ game loss to Oregon 51-13
2014 - Missouri stayed at #16 after SEC champ game loss to Alabama 42-13
2014 - Georgia Tech dropped 1 spot (#10 to #11) after ACC loss to FSU 37-35
2014 - Wisconsin dropped 5 spots (#13 to #18) after B10 loss to OSU 59-0
2015 - USC dropped 5 spots (#20-#25) after Pac12 loss to Stanford 41-22
2015 - Florida dropped 1 spot (#17 to #18) after SEC loss to Alabama 29-15
2015 - UNC stayed at #10 after loss to Clemson in ACC 45-37
2015 - Iowa dropped 1 spot to #5 after B10 loss to MSU 16-13
2016 - VaTech went up 1 spot (#23 to #22) after loss to Clemson in ACC 42-37
2016 - Florida dropped 2 spots (#15 to #17) in SEC loss to Alabama 54-16
2016 - Colorado dropped 2 spots (#8 to #10) in Pac12 loss to UWash 41-10
2016 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#6 to #8) after B10 loss to PSU 38-31
2017 - Miami dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after ACC loss to Clemson 38-3
2017 - Auburn dropped 5 spots (#2 to #7) after SEC loss to Georgia 28-7
2017 - TCU dropped 4 spots (#11 to #15) after Big 12 loss to Oklahoma 41-17
2017 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#4 to #6) after B10 loss to OSU 27-21
2017 - Stanford dropped 1 spot (#12 to #13) after Pac 12 loss to USC 31-28
2018 - Georgia dropped a spot (#4 to #5) after SEC loss to Alabama 35-28
2018 - Pittsburgh was unranked before and after ACC champ game to Clemson
2018 - Texas dropped 1 spot (#14 to #15) after Big 12 game to Oklahoma 39-27
2018 - Northwestern dropped 1 spot (#21 to #22) after B10 loss to OSU 45-27
2018 - Utah stayed at #17 after loss to UWash in Pac 12 10-3

If we are solely relying on 2-loss vs 3 loss argument and/or highest ranked team, PSU needs to make up a combination of 3 spots (either through rising or Wisconsin falling) to be one ahead of them. 10 out 21 (taking last year's ACC game out of the analysis since Pitt was unranked before and after) resulted in only a drop of 1 spot, stayed the same, or went up 1 spot by the conference champ loser. 4 out of those were games where the result was 10+ points.

I think there is solid data that outside of a 59-0 blowout, Wisc could only drop 1 spot.

How many teams in this sampling obtained their 3rd loss of the season in the championship game and remained in the top 10?
 
The more I've thought about it, the more I think we get screwed out of the Rose Bowl. I also think we get screwed out of the Orange/Cotton as well but I'll save that.

I think the whole "no way they put a 3 loss Wisconsin over a 2 loss Penn State" is really naive considering the way the CFP talked up Wisconsin on Tuesday night. Our hope lies in a OSU blow out that will push Wisconsin down but what constitutes a blow out?

Related to that, the CFP tends not to penalize conference game losers that much and considering we are 2 spots below Wisconsin, that is very significant.

2014 - Arizona dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after Pac12 champ game loss to Oregon 51-13
2014 - Missouri stayed at #16 after SEC champ game loss to Alabama 42-13
2014 - Georgia Tech dropped 1 spot (#10 to #11) after ACC loss to FSU 37-35
2014 - Wisconsin dropped 5 spots (#13 to #18) after B10 loss to OSU 59-0
2015 - USC dropped 5 spots (#20-#25) after Pac12 loss to Stanford 41-22
2015 - Florida dropped 1 spot (#17 to #18) after SEC loss to Alabama 29-15
2015 - UNC stayed at #10 after loss to Clemson in ACC 45-37
2015 - Iowa dropped 1 spot to #5 after B10 loss to MSU 16-13
2016 - VaTech went up 1 spot (#23 to #22) after loss to Clemson in ACC 42-37
2016 - Florida dropped 2 spots (#15 to #17) in SEC loss to Alabama 54-16
2016 - Colorado dropped 2 spots (#8 to #10) in Pac12 loss to UWash 41-10
2016 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#6 to #8) after B10 loss to PSU 38-31
2017 - Miami dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after ACC loss to Clemson 38-3
2017 - Auburn dropped 5 spots (#2 to #7) after SEC loss to Georgia 28-7
2017 - TCU dropped 4 spots (#11 to #15) after Big 12 loss to Oklahoma 41-17
2017 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#4 to #6) after B10 loss to OSU 27-21
2017 - Stanford dropped 1 spot (#12 to #13) after Pac 12 loss to USC 31-28
2018 - Georgia dropped a spot (#4 to #5) after SEC loss to Alabama 35-28
2018 - Pittsburgh was unranked before and after ACC champ game to Clemson
2018 - Texas dropped 1 spot (#14 to #15) after Big 12 game to Oklahoma 39-27
2018 - Northwestern dropped 1 spot (#21 to #22) after B10 loss to OSU 45-27
2018 - Utah stayed at #17 after loss to UWash in Pac 12 10-3

If we are solely relying on 2-loss vs 3 loss argument and/or highest ranked team, PSU needs to make up a combination of 3 spots (either through rising or Wisconsin falling) to be one ahead of them. 10 out 21 (taking last year's ACC game out of the analysis since Pitt was unranked before and after) resulted in only a drop of 1 spot, stayed the same, or went up 1 spot by the conference champ loser. 4 out of those were games where the result was 10+ points.

I think there is solid data that outside of a 59-0 blowout, Wisc could only drop 1 spot.

I totally agree. I hate to sound like a tin-foil hat wearing loon. But I think there is definitely some sort of narrative being repeated over and over and over this week by the media and it's bottom line meaning is that "Wisconsin is good ..... Penn State not too good".

Consider a few things:
1. So far all week, all of the talking heads on the national media shows are saying "Wisconsin to the Rose Bowl".

2. They are also now beginning to justify Wisconsin losing to Ohio State by saying things like "Nobody is going to blame Wisconsin for losing to Ohio State because the Buckeyes are a juggernaut".... so they are setting up opinion that it's OK for Wisconsin to lose this game.

3. And on top of all that, they are now also beginning to try and influence the committee by saying things like "Even if Wisconsin gets blown out by Ohio State they should not drop more than a spot or 2. Nobody is going to drop them more than a spot or 2 for losing to the mighty Buckeyes.". I actually heard Chris Childers say this earlier in week............ I never call into these shows but I was so tempted to call and remind that fool Penn State actually drop 4 spots, from 8 down to 12 for losing by just 11 to Ohio State in Columbus.
 
How many teams in this sampling obtained their 3rd loss of the season in the championship game and remained in the top 10?

2014 - Arizona dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after Pac12 champ game loss to Oregon 51-13
2016 - Colorado dropped 2 spots (#8 to #10) in Pac12 loss to UWash 41-10
2016 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#6 to #8) after B10 loss to PSU 38-31
2017 - Auburn dropped 5 spots (#2 to #7) after SEC loss to Georgia 28-7
 
I totally agree. I hate to sound like a tin-foil hat wearing loon. But I think there is definitely some sort of narrative being repeated over and over and over this week by the media and it's bottom line meaning is that "Wisconsin is good ..... Penn State not too good".

Consider a few things:
1. So far all week, all of the talking heads on the national media shows are saying "Wisconsin to the Rose Bowl".

2. They are also now beginning to justify Wisconsin losing to Ohio State by saying things like "Nobody is going to blame Wisconsin for losing to Ohio State because the Buckeyes are a juggernaut".... so they are setting up opinion that it's OK for Wisconsin to lose this game.

3. And on top of all that, they are now also beginning to try and influence the committee by saying things like "Even if Wisconsin gets blown out by Ohio State they should not drop more than a spot or 2. Nobody is going to drop them more than a spot or 2 for losing to the mighty Buckeyes.". I actually heard Chris Childers say this earlier in week............ I never call into these shows but I was so tempted to call and remind that fool Penn State actually drop 4 spots, from 8 down to 12 for losing by just 11 to Ohio State in Columbus.
Read my post, earlier in this thread:
There’s ZERO chance we DON’T get a NY6.....ZERO
 
I totally agree. I hate to sound like a tin-foil hat wearing loon. But I think there is definitely some sort of narrative being repeated over and over and over this week by the media and it's bottom line meaning is that "Wisconsin is good ..... Penn State not too good".

Consider a few things:
1. So far all week, all of the talking heads on the national media shows are saying "Wisconsin to the Rose Bowl".

2. They are also now beginning to justify Wisconsin losing to Ohio State by saying things like "Nobody is going to blame Wisconsin for losing to Ohio State because the Buckeyes are a juggernaut".... so they are setting up opinion that it's OK for Wisconsin to lose this game.

3. And on top of all that, they are now also beginning to try and influence the committee by saying things like "Even if Wisconsin gets blown out by Ohio State they should not drop more than a spot or 2. Nobody is going to drop them more than a spot or 2 for losing to the mighty Buckeyes.". I actually heard Chris Childers say this earlier in week............ I never call into these shows but I was so tempted to call and remind that fool Penn State actually drop 4 spots, from 8 down to 12 for losing by just 11 to Ohio State in Columbus.
Wisconsin will drop when they lose to OSU again, probably by a lopsided score. I actually think that OSU could score about the same amount of points as they did against Michigan, but give up fewer.

If the Rose Bowl wants a 3 loss team, then so be it. I want PSU to go to the Rose Bowl and believe that their resume justifies it. I also would be thrilled with the Orange Bowl and, to a lesser degree, the Cotton Bowl. If it's anything other than that, I almost wish they'd just practice in December and not play in the Outback Bowl, as that would be beyond depressing.
 
I totally agree. I hate to sound like a tin-foil hat wearing loon. But I think there is definitely some sort of narrative being repeated over and over and over this week by the media and it's bottom line meaning is that "Wisconsin is good ..... Penn State not too good".

Consider a few things:
1. So far all week, all of the talking heads on the national media shows are saying "Wisconsin to the Rose Bowl".

2. They are also now beginning to justify Wisconsin losing to Ohio State by saying things like "Nobody is going to blame Wisconsin for losing to Ohio State because the Buckeyes are a juggernaut".... so they are setting up opinion that it's OK for Wisconsin to lose this game.

3. And on top of all that, they are now also beginning to try and influence the committee by saying things like "Even if Wisconsin gets blown out by Ohio State they should not drop more than a spot or 2. Nobody is going to drop them more than a spot or 2 for losing to the mighty Buckeyes.". I actually heard Chris Childers say this earlier in week............ I never call into these shows but I was so tempted to call and remind that fool Penn State actually drop 4 spots, from 8 down to 12 for losing by just 11 to Ohio State in Columbus.


Hey if they keep it close and give Ohio State a good game I’m not going to bitch and moan about them making the rose bowl.

But these people who think they should get in even if they are blownout need a wakeup call. How can anyone justify putting a team who got blown out twice and lost to 6-6 Illinois in a top tier bowl like the Rose bowl ?

Wisky will have had 2 chances to prove to the world that they can compete with a top team. And they will have failed both times. Did Penn state fail that test ? Nope , and they only had one try at it.

If Wisky gets in the Rose bowl with a blowout loss it will be one of the greatest crimes of the CFP era
 
Hey if they keep it close and give Ohio State a good game I’m not going to bitch and moan about them making the rose bowl.

But these people who think they should get in even if they are blownout need a wakeup call. How can anyone justify putting a team who got blown out twice and lost to 6-6 Illinois in a top tier bowl like the Rose bowl ?

Wisky will have had 2 chances to prove to the world that they can compete with a top team. And they will have failed both times. Did Penn state fail that test ? Nope , and they only had one try at it.

If Wisky gets in the Rose bowl with a blowout loss it will be one of the greatest crimes of the CFP era
I have seen almost no bowl projections that have a 3-loss Wisconsin team making the Rose Bowl; I believe that Jerry Palm is the only one that I've seen. If they lose, it's going to be between PSU and Minnesota. If they somehow win, then they will go to the Rose Bowl.
 
2014 - Arizona dropped 3 spots (#7 to #10) after Pac12 champ game loss to Oregon 51-13
2016 - Colorado dropped 2 spots (#8 to #10) in Pac12 loss to UWash 41-10
2016 - Wisconsin dropped 2 spots (#6 to #8) after B10 loss to PSU 38-31
2017 - Auburn dropped 5 spots (#2 to #7) after SEC loss to Georgia 28-7

2014 - other than Boise State (who did not have a win over a ranked team that year), no two loss team was below Arizona.
2016 - other than WVU (who only beat 1 ranked team that year), no two loss team was below Colorado or Wisconsin
2017 - several 2 loss teams remained below Auburn, but Auburn had a win over #1 ranked Alabama (Wisconsin will not have anything close to that on their resume).

Given that data - I think it's unlikely a 2-loss PSU team would be below a 3-loss Wisconsin team. You're probably looking at a 3-5 ranking drop and probably below 2-loss Florida, PSU, and Alabama (and perhaps Oregon as well if they win the Pac12 championship).
 
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Hey if they keep it close and give Ohio State a good game I’m not going to bitch and moan about them making the rose bowl.

But these people who think they should get in even if they are blownout need a wakeup call. How can anyone justify putting a team who got blown out twice and lost to 6-6 Illinois in a top tier bowl like the Rose bowl ?

Wisky will have had 2 chances to prove to the world that they can compete with a top team. And they will have failed both times. Did Penn state fail that test ? Nope , and they only had one try at it.

If Wisky gets in the Rose bowl with a blowout loss it will be one of the greatest crimes of the CFP era
I think that's the hope - a blow out loss by Wisconsin (substantially more than the spread).
 
Hey if they keep it close and give Ohio State a good game I’m not going to bitch and moan about them making the rose bowl.

But these people who think they should get in even if they are blownout need a wakeup call. How can anyone justify putting a team who got blown out twice and lost to 6-6 Illinois in a top tier bowl like the Rose bowl ?

Wisky will have had 2 chances to prove to the world that they can compete with a top team. And they will have failed both times. Did Penn state fail that test ? Nope , and they only had one try at it.

If Wisky gets in the Rose bowl with a blowout loss it will be one of the greatest crimes of the CFP era
Just as big a crime would be Wisky getting to the Rose Bowl with a loss to fricken Illinois. With 3 losses and one of them being fricken Illinois there should be zero chance of Wisky getting the Rose Bowl bid over Penn State. Zero chance.
 
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