I've been doing this annually for the last couple years around the 2nd week of February, taking a statistical look at the progress of Chambers and the PSU hoops program. Ms. Barbour has said that the future of Pat will depend upon whether or not he's showing progress. Let's take a look at what kind of progress, or lack thereof, Pat has seen this season.
First, his record (note for all stats I am including postseason):
'11-12: 12-20 (4-15)
'12-13: 10-21 (2-17)
'13-14: 16-18 (6-13)
'14-15: 18-16 (6-15)
'15-16: 16-16 (7-12)
'16-17: 15-18 (7-13)
'17-18: 18-9 (8-6)
They have already achieved Penn State's best record in the B1G since Chambers' arrival. Granted, the remaining schedule is rough, but they've already got more wins than any team we've seen in the past 6 years, and they still have 4 regular season games plus at least 1 B1G tournament game left to go. If Penn State wins 2 of the final four regular season games, it will tie for the 2nd most regular season B1G wins since we joined.
The record is better, but let's see how SOS has looked like during this span:
'11-12: 22nd
'12-13: 8
'13-14: 51
'14-15: 55
'15-16: 61
'16-17: 32
'17-18: 104
The OOC schedule was a joke and its killed the SOS number. That said, the OSU, Michigan and Purdue games will, I believe, bring that SOS into the top 100.
Of course, wins and losses alone don't always tell the whole story, so let's look at the point per game differentials:
'11-12: -4.0 ppg
'12-13: -6.7
'13-14: +0.9
'14-15: +0.7
'15-16: -3.8
'16-17: -1.0
'17-18: +10.3
Thus far, the current team has the best ppg differential since Chambers arrived by a mile. The OOC schedule was pretty terrible, so let's narrow it down and just look at the differential in B1G games during the span:
'11-12: -8.4 ppg
'12-13: -10.5
'13-14: -4.0
'14-15: -3.0
'15-16: -7.6
'16-17: -4.6
'17-18: +3.7
Through 14 B1G games, it's the first time PSU has a positive point differential, and an 8.3 point swing from last season (and 6.7 points per game better than any of the previous 6 seasons). This is mostly due to the fact they aren't getting blown out anymore, the games are always close.
Here is a look at how many times Penn State lost games by at least 10 points each season (and then how many were by 20+)
'11-12: 13 (3)
'12-13: 11 (4)
'13-14: 8 (1)
'14-15: 4 (2)
'15-16: 11 (7)
'16-17: 10 (5)
'17-18: 2 (0)
Both 10+ point losses this season were by 11, and one of those, against Minnesota, is misleading as that game was tied at the end of regulation. So if competitiveness is a sign of progress, those numbers are interesting.
Combining the above, there's a stat called the Simple Rating System which weighs strength of schedule with margin of victory/defeat. This helps to compare teams across years where SOS has varied:
'11-12: 115
'12-13: 123
'13-14: 75
'14-15: 73
'15-16: 119
'16-17: 75
'17-18: 46 (before tonight's game)
This season the team currently has the best SRS during Chambers' tenure by a significant margin.
The remaining games will tell the story, but anyone thinking this team hasn't shown significant progress is ignoring reality. It's also why it's so unfortunate to hear that Carr and/or Watkins might be leaving. Fairly assuming their continued development, this group as upperclassmen would start making history for PSU basketball. Regardless, if Ms. Barbour is judging Pat in terms of progress, the numbers are impossible to ignore.
First, his record (note for all stats I am including postseason):
'11-12: 12-20 (4-15)
'12-13: 10-21 (2-17)
'13-14: 16-18 (6-13)
'14-15: 18-16 (6-15)
'15-16: 16-16 (7-12)
'16-17: 15-18 (7-13)
'17-18: 18-9 (8-6)
They have already achieved Penn State's best record in the B1G since Chambers' arrival. Granted, the remaining schedule is rough, but they've already got more wins than any team we've seen in the past 6 years, and they still have 4 regular season games plus at least 1 B1G tournament game left to go. If Penn State wins 2 of the final four regular season games, it will tie for the 2nd most regular season B1G wins since we joined.
The record is better, but let's see how SOS has looked like during this span:
'11-12: 22nd
'12-13: 8
'13-14: 51
'14-15: 55
'15-16: 61
'16-17: 32
'17-18: 104
The OOC schedule was a joke and its killed the SOS number. That said, the OSU, Michigan and Purdue games will, I believe, bring that SOS into the top 100.
Of course, wins and losses alone don't always tell the whole story, so let's look at the point per game differentials:
'11-12: -4.0 ppg
'12-13: -6.7
'13-14: +0.9
'14-15: +0.7
'15-16: -3.8
'16-17: -1.0
'17-18: +10.3
Thus far, the current team has the best ppg differential since Chambers arrived by a mile. The OOC schedule was pretty terrible, so let's narrow it down and just look at the differential in B1G games during the span:
'11-12: -8.4 ppg
'12-13: -10.5
'13-14: -4.0
'14-15: -3.0
'15-16: -7.6
'16-17: -4.6
'17-18: +3.7
Through 14 B1G games, it's the first time PSU has a positive point differential, and an 8.3 point swing from last season (and 6.7 points per game better than any of the previous 6 seasons). This is mostly due to the fact they aren't getting blown out anymore, the games are always close.
Here is a look at how many times Penn State lost games by at least 10 points each season (and then how many were by 20+)
'11-12: 13 (3)
'12-13: 11 (4)
'13-14: 8 (1)
'14-15: 4 (2)
'15-16: 11 (7)
'16-17: 10 (5)
'17-18: 2 (0)
Both 10+ point losses this season were by 11, and one of those, against Minnesota, is misleading as that game was tied at the end of regulation. So if competitiveness is a sign of progress, those numbers are interesting.
Combining the above, there's a stat called the Simple Rating System which weighs strength of schedule with margin of victory/defeat. This helps to compare teams across years where SOS has varied:
'11-12: 115
'12-13: 123
'13-14: 75
'14-15: 73
'15-16: 119
'16-17: 75
'17-18: 46 (before tonight's game)
This season the team currently has the best SRS during Chambers' tenure by a significant margin.
The remaining games will tell the story, but anyone thinking this team hasn't shown significant progress is ignoring reality. It's also why it's so unfortunate to hear that Carr and/or Watkins might be leaving. Fairly assuming their continued development, this group as upperclassmen would start making history for PSU basketball. Regardless, if Ms. Barbour is judging Pat in terms of progress, the numbers are impossible to ignore.
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