I didn't intend to spend much time on this, but I did, so I figured I'd post it up here for you guys to take a look at if you want.
Overview of how PSU's season has played out and what kind of team they are, style of play, etc.?
Expectations were pretty varied coming into the season for this Penn State team and, thanks to the wildly unpredictable nature of the Big Ten this year, how the last two-thirds of the conference schedule plays out is anybody’s guess.
Against a nonconference slate that was challenging, but far from impossible, Penn State did well. A dominant win at Georgetown was probably the highlight, but a come-from-behind win against Yale, commanding wins against Syracuse and Wake Forest, and a home win against Alabama will all bolster a 10-1 resume that was only blemished by a loss to Mississippi in Brooklyn.
Against Big Ten competition, the wins have come against Maryland, Iowa (at the Palestra in Philadelphia), and Ohio State with losses at Ohio State in December, at Rutgers, to Wisconsin at home, and at Minnesota, the last three all consecutively over an 8-day stretch earlier this month.
The contrast in style between the wins and losses has been striking, but it boils down to this: Teams that take away possessions and muck up the pace and flow of the game with defense and rebounding have thrown Penn State off. Ohio State in December was a track meet in which the Buckeyes just couldn’t miss a shot, but at Rutgers, Wisconsin, and Minnesota were games marked by vast disparities in rebounding and shooting percentages.
Penn State wants to run the floor and score off its defense, which is generally outstanding, save for its rebounding component, which has been somewhere between problematic and disastrous for most of the season. Get up volume shots - take 25-30 threes and make 8-10 - and push the scoring into the high 70s-80s and Penn State has emerged with wins in most of those games. In fact, Penn State didn’t crack 70 in any of the three most recent losses.
Like most Big Ten teams, including Michigan, PSU has struggled on the road. How is PSU different on the road as opposed to at home?
It’s hard to say that the shots just aren’t falling on the road as opposed to at home because Penn State’s best shooting performance of the season - 18-30 from the floor and 5-10 from three - came in the first half at Minnesota last week. But the converse has also been true with long lulls without making shots in those games, including an 0-7 stretch at Rutgers and 0-13 in the second half at Minnesota.
I don’t know that I’ve seen a dramatically difference for this team between home and road, but I think that what head coach Patrick Chambers said Monday at his press conference rings especially true in the league this year. Whether it’s officiating/free throw shooting disparities, or shooting percentages, or hustle plays, the reality is that you need to be 8-10 points better on the road than you are at home, and Penn State hasn’t had those types of performances in true road games outside of the thrashing it put to Georgetown.
With just four true road games, though, Penn State has a win at Georgetown and second-half leads at Rutgers and Minnesota. But when the inevitable avalanche has come - both from other teams’ scoring as well as its own scoring droughts - Penn State just hasn’t responded well, and will need to if it wants to steal wins at any of its road venues in the Big Ten from here on out.
What have you seen from Lamar Stevens this season?
Stevens has had an interesting year. Without just relying on stats, which have been very consistent at 16.6 points and 6.9 rebounds, my general perception is that his midrange has been deadly. For everything he brought to the floor offensively in the past, he’s handling the best defender on the floor and still making a variety of shots at a variety of levels this year. No doubt, he’s a tough matchup. He’s still not really making 3-pointers, but I think his selection has improved as the year has progressed rather than forcing it quite as much as he had been earlier. He’s getting to the free throw line at almost double the rate of the next closest player on the team, though he’s also putting up more shots than anyone else, too. At 45.9 percent from the floor, though, you’re going to take that.
The one thing that has followed him around this year, maybe more than I ever remember in past seasons, is foul trouble, especially in the Big Ten. He fouled out at Ohio State, had four against Maryland, four against Iowa, four at Rutgers, and four against Ohio State Saturday. And in some cases, they’re eating into his minutes.
Especially on the road, he just has to be more cognizant of his fouls and, maybe more important, shaking off the ones he doesn’t think are justified.
PSU's biggest strength?
Lamar Stevens is great, truly, but he can’t do it by himself. Last season proved that pretty demonstrably. The two most important components to this team’s success outside of Stevens are Mike Watkins and Myreon Jones, each of which has had some ups and downs through the course of the year.
Watkins has a long and documented battle with bipolar disorder and clinical depression, and sometimes it shows on the court and can rear its head without warning, from game to game. He all but disappeared in the stretch against Iowa, at Rutgers, and against Wisconsin, then reappeared when he was taken out of the starting lineup at Minnesota, and was impactful against Ohio State on Saturday.
Jones played sparingly last year in his first season with the program, and almost not at all in the Big Ten, so some of his ups and downs are to be expected, especially when he’s running the point. But he’s a scorer first and foremost and has been a really nice complement to Stevens and is averaging 13.0 ppg in the Big Ten.
Izaiah Brockington has also been a really nice spark as a sixth man off the bench, with true freshman Seth Lundy coming on strong as he has supplanted Myles Dread in the starting lineup.
Biggest weakness?
Rebounding.
Penn State is among the worst in the Big Ten in rebounding disparity, currently losing that battle at an average of 41.1 to 32.6 per game in conference games. For a team that relies on volume shooting and lots of possessions, losing that rebounding battle is especially consequential. Penn State has been pretty good with turnovers, holding an 67-87 advantage there in the Big Ten, but if these guys have limited possessions, limited shots, and limited trips to the free throw line, they tend to get stuck in the mud offensively and really struggle to play themselves out of it because, more often than not, they go to hero-ball and try to shoot themselves out of it.
How you see the game playing out, and a prediction.
The RPI site has a pretty good track record with these things in advance and has Penn State losing 79-69, which sounds about right to me and plays into its troubles offensively on the road. Maybe Michigan’s defense gets Penn State into the 70s, but I just think it’s going to be hard for Penn State to hold Michigan back from the high-70s and will be even harder to match or exceed that number, especially on the road.
Overview of how PSU's season has played out and what kind of team they are, style of play, etc.?
Expectations were pretty varied coming into the season for this Penn State team and, thanks to the wildly unpredictable nature of the Big Ten this year, how the last two-thirds of the conference schedule plays out is anybody’s guess.
Against a nonconference slate that was challenging, but far from impossible, Penn State did well. A dominant win at Georgetown was probably the highlight, but a come-from-behind win against Yale, commanding wins against Syracuse and Wake Forest, and a home win against Alabama will all bolster a 10-1 resume that was only blemished by a loss to Mississippi in Brooklyn.
Against Big Ten competition, the wins have come against Maryland, Iowa (at the Palestra in Philadelphia), and Ohio State with losses at Ohio State in December, at Rutgers, to Wisconsin at home, and at Minnesota, the last three all consecutively over an 8-day stretch earlier this month.
The contrast in style between the wins and losses has been striking, but it boils down to this: Teams that take away possessions and muck up the pace and flow of the game with defense and rebounding have thrown Penn State off. Ohio State in December was a track meet in which the Buckeyes just couldn’t miss a shot, but at Rutgers, Wisconsin, and Minnesota were games marked by vast disparities in rebounding and shooting percentages.
Penn State wants to run the floor and score off its defense, which is generally outstanding, save for its rebounding component, which has been somewhere between problematic and disastrous for most of the season. Get up volume shots - take 25-30 threes and make 8-10 - and push the scoring into the high 70s-80s and Penn State has emerged with wins in most of those games. In fact, Penn State didn’t crack 70 in any of the three most recent losses.
Like most Big Ten teams, including Michigan, PSU has struggled on the road. How is PSU different on the road as opposed to at home?
It’s hard to say that the shots just aren’t falling on the road as opposed to at home because Penn State’s best shooting performance of the season - 18-30 from the floor and 5-10 from three - came in the first half at Minnesota last week. But the converse has also been true with long lulls without making shots in those games, including an 0-7 stretch at Rutgers and 0-13 in the second half at Minnesota.
I don’t know that I’ve seen a dramatically difference for this team between home and road, but I think that what head coach Patrick Chambers said Monday at his press conference rings especially true in the league this year. Whether it’s officiating/free throw shooting disparities, or shooting percentages, or hustle plays, the reality is that you need to be 8-10 points better on the road than you are at home, and Penn State hasn’t had those types of performances in true road games outside of the thrashing it put to Georgetown.
With just four true road games, though, Penn State has a win at Georgetown and second-half leads at Rutgers and Minnesota. But when the inevitable avalanche has come - both from other teams’ scoring as well as its own scoring droughts - Penn State just hasn’t responded well, and will need to if it wants to steal wins at any of its road venues in the Big Ten from here on out.
What have you seen from Lamar Stevens this season?
Stevens has had an interesting year. Without just relying on stats, which have been very consistent at 16.6 points and 6.9 rebounds, my general perception is that his midrange has been deadly. For everything he brought to the floor offensively in the past, he’s handling the best defender on the floor and still making a variety of shots at a variety of levels this year. No doubt, he’s a tough matchup. He’s still not really making 3-pointers, but I think his selection has improved as the year has progressed rather than forcing it quite as much as he had been earlier. He’s getting to the free throw line at almost double the rate of the next closest player on the team, though he’s also putting up more shots than anyone else, too. At 45.9 percent from the floor, though, you’re going to take that.
The one thing that has followed him around this year, maybe more than I ever remember in past seasons, is foul trouble, especially in the Big Ten. He fouled out at Ohio State, had four against Maryland, four against Iowa, four at Rutgers, and four against Ohio State Saturday. And in some cases, they’re eating into his minutes.
Especially on the road, he just has to be more cognizant of his fouls and, maybe more important, shaking off the ones he doesn’t think are justified.
PSU's biggest strength?
Lamar Stevens is great, truly, but he can’t do it by himself. Last season proved that pretty demonstrably. The two most important components to this team’s success outside of Stevens are Mike Watkins and Myreon Jones, each of which has had some ups and downs through the course of the year.
Watkins has a long and documented battle with bipolar disorder and clinical depression, and sometimes it shows on the court and can rear its head without warning, from game to game. He all but disappeared in the stretch against Iowa, at Rutgers, and against Wisconsin, then reappeared when he was taken out of the starting lineup at Minnesota, and was impactful against Ohio State on Saturday.
Jones played sparingly last year in his first season with the program, and almost not at all in the Big Ten, so some of his ups and downs are to be expected, especially when he’s running the point. But he’s a scorer first and foremost and has been a really nice complement to Stevens and is averaging 13.0 ppg in the Big Ten.
Izaiah Brockington has also been a really nice spark as a sixth man off the bench, with true freshman Seth Lundy coming on strong as he has supplanted Myles Dread in the starting lineup.
Biggest weakness?
Rebounding.
Penn State is among the worst in the Big Ten in rebounding disparity, currently losing that battle at an average of 41.1 to 32.6 per game in conference games. For a team that relies on volume shooting and lots of possessions, losing that rebounding battle is especially consequential. Penn State has been pretty good with turnovers, holding an 67-87 advantage there in the Big Ten, but if these guys have limited possessions, limited shots, and limited trips to the free throw line, they tend to get stuck in the mud offensively and really struggle to play themselves out of it because, more often than not, they go to hero-ball and try to shoot themselves out of it.
How you see the game playing out, and a prediction.
The RPI site has a pretty good track record with these things in advance and has Penn State losing 79-69, which sounds about right to me and plays into its troubles offensively on the road. Maybe Michigan’s defense gets Penn State into the 70s, but I just think it’s going to be hard for Penn State to hold Michigan back from the high-70s and will be even harder to match or exceed that number, especially on the road.
