The robust Pause resists a robust el Niño - Still no global warming at all for 18 years 9 months
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
The Christmas pantomime here in Paris is well into its two-week run.
The Druids who had hoped that their gibbering incantations might begin to shorten the Pause during the United Necromancers’ pre-solstice prayer-group have been disappointed.
Gaia has not heeded them. She continues to show no sign of the “fever” long promised by the Prophet Gore.
The robust Pause continues to resist the gathering el Niño.
It remains at last month’s record-setting 18 years 9 months (Fig. 1).
Figure 1. The least-squares linear-regression trend on the RSS satellite monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly dataset continues to show no global warming for 18 years 9 months since March 1997, though one-third of all anthropogenic forcings have occurred during the period of the Pause.
The modelers ought to be surprised by the persistence of the Pause.
NOAA, with rare honesty, said in its 2008 State of the Climate report that 15 years or more without warming would demonstrate a discrepancy between prediction and observation.
One reason for NOAA’s statement is that there is supposed to be a sharp and significant instantaneous response to a radiative forcing such as adding CO2 to the air.
The steepness of this predicted response can be seen in Fig. 2, which is based on a paper on temperature feedbacks by Professor Richard Lindzen’s former student Professor Gerard Roe in 2009. The graph of Roe’s model output shows that the initial expected response to a forcing is supposed to be an immediate and rapid warming.
Figure 2. Models predict rapid initial warming in response to a forcing. Instead, no warming at all is occurring. Based on Roe (2009).
The current el Niño, as Bob Tisdale’s distinguished series of reports here demonstrates, is at least as big as the Great el Niño of 1998. The RSS temperature record is beginning to reflect its magnitude.
Figure 3. The glaring discrepancy between IPCC’s predicted range of warming from 1990-2015 (orange zone) and the outturn (blue zone).
The sheer length of the Pause has made a mockery of the exaggerated prediction made by IPCC in 1990 to the effect that there should have been 0.72 [0.50. 1.08] degrees’ global warming by now.
The observed real-world warming since 1990, on all five leading global datasets, is 0.24-0.44 degrees, or
one-third to three-fifths of IPCC’s central prediction and
well below its least prediction (Fig. 3).
The Pause will probably shorten dramatically in the coming months and may disappear altogether for a time. However, if there is a following la Niña, as there often is, the Pause may return at some time from the end of next year onward.
The hiatus period of 18 years 9 months is the farthest back one can go in the RSS satellite temperature record and still show a sub-zero trend. The start date is not cherry-picked: it is calculated. And the graph does not mean there is no such thing as global warming. Going back further shows a small warming rate.
The start-date for the Pause has been inching forward, though just a little more slowly than the end-date, which is why the Pause continues on average to lengthen.
So long a stasis in global temperature is simply inconsistent with the extremist predictions of the computer models. It raises legitimate questions whether they overstate the value for the radiative forcing in response to a proportionate change in CO2 concentration.
Read more at:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/12/...-global-warming-at-all-for-18-years-9-months/
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
The Christmas pantomime here in Paris is well into its two-week run.
The Druids who had hoped that their gibbering incantations might begin to shorten the Pause during the United Necromancers’ pre-solstice prayer-group have been disappointed.
Gaia has not heeded them. She continues to show no sign of the “fever” long promised by the Prophet Gore.
The robust Pause continues to resist the gathering el Niño.
It remains at last month’s record-setting 18 years 9 months (Fig. 1).
Figure 1. The least-squares linear-regression trend on the RSS satellite monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly dataset continues to show no global warming for 18 years 9 months since March 1997, though one-third of all anthropogenic forcings have occurred during the period of the Pause.
The modelers ought to be surprised by the persistence of the Pause.
NOAA, with rare honesty, said in its 2008 State of the Climate report that 15 years or more without warming would demonstrate a discrepancy between prediction and observation.
One reason for NOAA’s statement is that there is supposed to be a sharp and significant instantaneous response to a radiative forcing such as adding CO2 to the air.
The steepness of this predicted response can be seen in Fig. 2, which is based on a paper on temperature feedbacks by Professor Richard Lindzen’s former student Professor Gerard Roe in 2009. The graph of Roe’s model output shows that the initial expected response to a forcing is supposed to be an immediate and rapid warming.
But, despite the very substantial forcings in the 18 years 9 months since February 1997,
not a flicker of warming has resulted.
not a flicker of warming has resulted.
Figure 2. Models predict rapid initial warming in response to a forcing. Instead, no warming at all is occurring. Based on Roe (2009).
The current el Niño, as Bob Tisdale’s distinguished series of reports here demonstrates, is at least as big as the Great el Niño of 1998. The RSS temperature record is beginning to reflect its magnitude.
Figure 3. The glaring discrepancy between IPCC’s predicted range of warming from 1990-2015 (orange zone) and the outturn (blue zone).
The sheer length of the Pause has made a mockery of the exaggerated prediction made by IPCC in 1990 to the effect that there should have been 0.72 [0.50. 1.08] degrees’ global warming by now.
The observed real-world warming since 1990, on all five leading global datasets, is 0.24-0.44 degrees, or
one-third to three-fifths of IPCC’s central prediction and
well below its least prediction (Fig. 3).
The Pause will probably shorten dramatically in the coming months and may disappear altogether for a time. However, if there is a following la Niña, as there often is, the Pause may return at some time from the end of next year onward.
The hiatus period of 18 years 9 months is the farthest back one can go in the RSS satellite temperature record and still show a sub-zero trend. The start date is not cherry-picked: it is calculated. And the graph does not mean there is no such thing as global warming. Going back further shows a small warming rate.
The start-date for the Pause has been inching forward, though just a little more slowly than the end-date, which is why the Pause continues on average to lengthen.
So long a stasis in global temperature is simply inconsistent with the extremist predictions of the computer models. It raises legitimate questions whether they overstate the value for the radiative forcing in response to a proportionate change in CO2 concentration.
Read more at:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/12/...-global-warming-at-all-for-18-years-9-months/
