Top 10 Teams: Odds of Winning Out

[stormingnorm]

Based on the current numbers (from the groups that do such things):

Winning out through the End of Regular Season:

Alabama 55%
Georgia 32%
OSU 43%
Clemson 40%
LSU 1%
Notre Dame 23%
Oklahoma 15%
Auburn <1%
WVU 4%
Washington 26%

PSU 23%

That is BEFORE any conference championship games.

What does that mean? BEFORE the Conference Championship games are even played, it is likely that 7 1/2 (either 7 or 8 teams) of the 10 currently ranked ahead of PSU will lose a game (if not more).

_______________________________________________


Even if you just look (as I did, for grins) at the likelihood of teams winning out through Week 10 (Through the first week of November)…..

The odds are:
Alabama 70%
UGA 42%
OSU 83%
Clemson 66%
LSU 2%
Notre Dame 48%
Oklahoma 36%
Auburn 21%
WVU 27%
Washington 36%

PSU 32%.


ie, If PSU wins out through the Michigan game..... their most likely spot in the "rankings" at that point would be "5" (assuming they would jump over the "losers" - which would be very likely with the possible exceptions of Bama and UGA and maybe OSU - but those are the teams least likely to be among the "losers" anyway)..... with three weeks of the regular season - and the CCGs - yet to be played.


PSU needs to worry about one thing only - - - - the most difficult thing - - - - winning their games.

 

[bmw199]

This weekend might take down a whole bunch.

 

[fastlax16]

Based on the current numbers (from the groups that do such things):

Winning out through the End of Regular Season:

Alabama 55%
Georgia 32%
OSU 43%
Clemson 40%
LSU 1%
Notre Dame 23%
Oklahoma 15%
Auburn <1%
WVU 4%
Washington 26%

PSU 23%

That is BEFORE any conference championship games.

What does that mean? BEFORE the Conference Championship games are even played, it is likely that 7 1/2 (either 7 or 8 teams) of the 10 currently ranked ahead of PSU will lose a game (if not more).

_______________________________________________


Even if you just look (as I did, for grins) at the likelihood of teams winning out through Week 10 (Through the first week of November)…..

The odds are:
Alabama 70%
UGA 42%
OSU 83%
Clemson 66%
LSU 2%
Notre Dame 48%
Oklahoma 36%
Auburn 21%
WVU 27%
Washington 36%

PSU 32%.


ie, If PSU wins out through the Michigan game..... their most likely spot in the "rankings" at that point would be "5" (assuming they would jump over the "losers" - which would be very likely with the possible exceptions of Bama and UGA and maybe OSU - but those are the teams least likely to be among the "losers" anyway)..... with three weeks of the regular season - and the CCGs - yet to be played.


PSU needs to worry about one thing only - - - - the most difficult thing - - - - winning their games.

any of the sec teams would stay ahead of penn state with a loss unless they're blown out. OSU stays ahead of psu with a loss. Clemson/OU/ND is a toss up because this is a beauty contest. OU and Clemson have more recent history and ND is ND.

 

[psuro]

This weekend might take down a whole bunch.

I hope so.

 

[lw37]

So you’re telling me Rutgers didn’t make the list?

 

[Nitt1300]

nobody is going undefeated except possibly Bama and tOSU

 

[MacNit07]

This weekend might take down a whole bunch.

Unless Penn State starts playing 4Qs of Defense like we saw until 8:00 minutes left in game Saturday, it will be a moot point as far as the Nittany Lions are concerned. Could it happen? Perhaps, but not likely. And PSU will lose at least two more games this year unless that improvement happens.

 

[bdgan]

Based on the current numbers (from the groups that do such things):

Winning out through the End of Regular Season:

Alabama 55%
Georgia 32%
OSU 43%
Clemson 40%
LSU 1%
Notre Dame 23%
Oklahoma 15%
Auburn <1%
WVU 4%
Washington 26%

PSU 23%

That is BEFORE any conference championship games.

What does that mean? BEFORE the Conference Championship games are even played, it is likely that 7 1/2 (either 7 or 8 teams) of the 10 currently ranked ahead of PSU will lose a game (if not more).

_______________________________________________


Even if you just look (as I did, for grins) at the likelihood of teams winning out through Week 10 (Through the first week of November)…..

The odds are:
Alabama 70%
UGA 42%
OSU 83%
Clemson 66%
LSU 2%
Notre Dame 48%
Oklahoma 36%
Auburn 21%
WVU 27%
Washington 36%

PSU 32%.


ie, If PSU wins out through the Michigan game..... their most likely spot in the "rankings" at that point would be "5" (assuming they would jump over the "losers" - which would be very likely with the possible exceptions of Bama and UGA and maybe OSU - but those are the teams least likely to be among the "losers" anyway)..... with three weeks of the regular season - and the CCGs - yet to be played.


PSU needs to worry about one thing only - - - - the most difficult thing - - - - winning their games.

Not top 10 but Wisconsin plays Michigan next week (10/13) so one of them will have 2 losses. They both still play PSU so it will be difficult for any of these 3 teams to finish better than 10-2. Iowa has a relatively easy schedule aside from PSU so they could also finish with just 2 losses.

I think PSU still has a chance to make the playoffs if they win out. 11-1 with wins over Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Iowa is very good. Especially if the only loss is by 1 pt to OSU. The odds aren't good with this defense but there's a chance.

One of the big questions is who is going to beat Notre Dame? Their toughest remaing game is this week vs. Va. Tech (who lost to Old Dominion).

 

[bmw199]

1. Bama
2. OSU
3. UGA
4. PSU

Heard it here first.

 

[fastlax16]

Unless Penn State starts playing 4Qs of Defense like we saw until 8:00 minutes left in game Saturday, it will be a moot point as far as the Nittany Lions are concerned. Could it happen? Perhaps, but not likely. And PSU will lose at least two more games this year unless that improvement happens.

No one else on the schedule is anywhere close to OSUs level.

1. Bama
2. OSU
3. UGA
4. PSU

Heard it here first.

I’d be shocked if the committee only puts two conferences in.

 

[eidolon21]

I have been assured by several members of this Board that the chances of more than one team going undefeated in the regular season are so small as to be almost zero. How can these percentages even be possible???

 

[Nittanygrad93]

1. Bama
2. OSU
3. UGA
4. PSU

Heard it here first.

I hope so! Quickest way to an 8 team playoff with 5 conference champs and 3 wild cards is leaving more conferences out of current format.

 

[bmw199]

I hope so! Quickest way to an 8 team playoff with 5 conference champs and 3 wild cards is leaving more conferences out of current format.

2 undefeated, 3-4 1 loss teams. Only 2 of the one loss teams lost to undefeated only. Why would Clemson or ND or Washington deserve in if they lose to lesser teams

 

[Howie'81]

No one else on the schedule is anywhere close to OSUs level.


I’d be shocked if the committee only puts two conferences in.

I wouldn't.

 

[Nitt1300]

I have been assured by several members of this Board that the chances of more than one team going undefeated in the regular season are so small as to be almost zero. How can these percentages even be possible???

they are made up by sportswriters?

 

[PennStateTurf2002]

If you can’t see the massive improvement in PSUs defense from first game until now then you aren’t looking. The only thing that failed was our depth and that is understandable considering the injuries and what we lost.

I look for them to take a major step forward with the bye week and to go on a serious roll.

 

[10 Years After]

If you can’t see the massive improvement in PSUs defense from first game until now then you aren’t looking. The only thing that failed was our depth and that is understandable considering the injuries and what we lost.

I look for them to take a major step forward with the bye week and to go on a serious roll.

We don't tackle. Period.

 

[Roswell-Blue]

We don't tackle. Period.

Franklin's consistent message to the team: "Be proud of what you put on tape!" There is going to have to be a critical response from the players and coaches after they cue up the film of those missed tackles. Hopefully, we see another leap of improvement in our tackling in the MSU game and going forward. We'll need it if the next level of highest goals are to be met: 11-1.

 

[MacNit07]

If you can’t see the massive improvement in PSUs defense from first game until now then you aren’t looking. The only thing that failed was our depth and that is understandable considering the injuries and what we lost.

I look for them to take a major step forward with the bye week and to go on a serious roll.

Big steps forward? Yes. But basically we’re defeated with an offense that did not throw the ball down the field. Tackling was incredibly poor down the stretch. Several very talented players are simply not tackling and it is beginning to look like reality and not lack of maturity. Pass rush has not been suffice. Linebacker play continues to be subpar.