Toughest road to the Final Four? MSU (by opponent seeding)

[simons96]

looking at the aggregate seedings of opponents, with the lowest score indicating the higher seeds, here's how the final four add up:

KY = 16 + 8 + 5 + 3 = 32

WI = 16 + 8 + 4 + 2 = 30

Duke = 16 + 8 + 5 + 2 = 31

MSU = 10 + 2 + 3 + 4 = 19


(on a side note, does this not indicate the inherent inequity of getting a #1 seed in your bracket?)

I stated before I felt MSU was grossly underseeded, having finished 3rd in the Big Ten, and had a better record than higher seeds in their bracket.

Though they slipped a little yesterday (turnovers, rushed shots) on some youthful mistakes, Izzo has this crew playing the best basketball in this tourney against better competitors . . .

 

[Obliviax]

MSU looks to be the weakest team in the final four

judging by the regionals, however. The team was just not as crisp, IMHO. Looks to me like the best two teams are Wisky and KY. It is really good for the B1G (cough...hack) though. Watching the KY ND game, I was shocked coach Cal didn't challenge ND inside more. I was also surprised ND's coach didn't play the offense/defense game as far as personnel down the stretch. I felt ND played their A game, but was outcoached.

Here in CLE, KY took over the city this weekend. I went out to dinner Friday night and there were KY people everywhere. I saw a car with KY plates and KY flags at Petco on Saturday afternoon. KY plates all over the place. I was told that there were more KY people than all other three teams combined (considering one was ND, that's quite a story). No way all of these people had tickets. Tickets were going for $650, bad seats, for the final game.

 

[simons96]

I realize basketball is a team game, but

Originally posted by Obliviax:
judging by the regionals, however. The team was just not as crisp, IMHO. Looks to me like the best two teams are Wisky and KY. It is really good for the B1G (cough...hack) though. Watching the KY ND game, I was shocked coach Cal didn't challenge ND inside more. I was also surprised ND's coach didn't play the offense/defense game as far as personnel down the stretch. I felt ND played their A game, but was outcoached.

Here in CLE, KY took over the city this weekend. I went out to dinner Friday night and there were KY people everywhere. I saw a car with KY plates and KY flags at Petco on Saturday afternoon. KY plates all over the place. I was told that there were more KY people than all other three teams combined (considering one was ND, that's quite a story). No way all of these people had tickets. Tickets were going for $650, bad seats, for the final game.

tournaments can be won on the backs of really good individual players

and so far the 3 best guys I have watched are Kaminsky, Valentine, and Trice

 

[massimoManca II]

If only the NCAA seeded each team prior to publishing the tourney brackets

analysis as valuable as a Consumer Reports review

This post was edited on 3/30 9:25 AM by massimoManca II

 

[Art]

That's a foregone conclusion given

the initial seedings of the teams. Inequity? Not really. Otherwise it diminishes the value of regular season performance. Mis-seedings can and will happen. Information used to determine seedings and their applications are less than perfect. Eliminating the "luck" factor, though, overseeded teams will fall by the wayside sooner and underseeded will go deeper than their numbers predict. Does the best team always win. "Best" is a snapshot it time. Thus, we can say that the best team at the time of the tournament wins, which is pretty much why it's played.

 

[simons96]

Re: That's a foregone conclusion given

Originally posted by Art:
the initial seedings of the teams. Inequity? Not really. Otherwise it diminishes the value of regular season performance. Mis-seedings can and will happen. Information used to determine seedings and their applications are less than perfect. Eliminating the "luck" factor, though, overseeded teams will fall by the wayside sooner and underseeded will go deeper than their numbers predict. Does the best team always win. "Best" is a snapshot it time. Thus, we can say that the best team at the time of the tournament wins, which is pretty much why it's played.

true, but the point was that the #1 seeds aren't really "challenged" in the earlier rounds, playing significantly weaker opponents on the road to the final four.

and it is a bit odd that MSU did not even have to beat the #1 seed in their bracket to advance . . .

 

[Art]

The reason Calipari didn't challenge ND

inside is that aside from Towns none of his big men have offensive skills. They can put back offensive rebounds, but making their own shots is a trip through Neverneverland.

 

[Still in State College]

Most thought that the East Region was the most wide open

There were probably 5 or 6 teams that could have won that region. The others didn't have the same parity.

 

[Art]

So how should matchups be determined?

Rank the teams 1-68, but randomly match them up to start and after each round? Otherwise why not start off by having 16s play 16s and 1s play 1s? That should do amazing things to viewership as the tournament progresses.

 

[wbcincy]

Re: That's a foregone conclusion given

Originally posted by simons96:

Originally posted by Art:
the initial seedings of the teams. Inequity? Not really. Otherwise it diminishes the value of regular season performance. Mis-seedings can and will happen. Information used to determine seedings and their applications are less than perfect. Eliminating the "luck" factor, though, overseeded teams will fall by the wayside sooner and underseeded will go deeper than their numbers predict. Does the best team always win. "Best" is a snapshot it time. Thus, we can say that the best team at the time of the tournament wins, which is pretty much why it's played.

true, but the point was that the #1 seeds aren't really "challenged" in the earlier rounds, playing significantly weaker opponents on the road to the final four.

and it is a bit odd that MSU did not even have to beat the #1 seed in their bracket to advance . . .

Eh, I think the #1 seeds get pretty fairly challenged. The 8/9 game is often two big 5 conference teams that finished middle of the pack. Which usually means they're teams that have faced top 5 teams before and are capable of playing them competitively.

You don't have to look back far to see NC State challenging Nova, Northern Iowa challenging Kansas, UC giving Kentucky a run for a half, Wiscy struggling to pull away from Oregon, etc etc. And then UNC was no pushover for Wiscy, Louisville wouldve been a tough matchup for Nova, and Utah was a legit team facing Duke. I just dont see it, I think the 1 seeds definitely play a challenging schedule to reach the elite 8 or final four. Granted it's an easier path than a 2 seed faces, but shouldn't it be that way?

 

[ApexLion]

OMG, ND was outcoached?


Are you insane?

Brey almost pulled off the impossible by coaching every last drop out of his kids.

It was Miami vs. Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl and will be again if Kentucky is in the final.

Brey's plan was masterful.

He refused to double down in the paint and it confused the hell out of the talented but very young Wildcats. The basic plan was to get 3 for 2 and give up the paint. But there was more to it and Brey deserves all the credit.

He instructed his kids to not shoot on early drives and kick but put it up on late drives and try to clean up when there's a double. His kids followed instructions to a tee. That takes coaching. They often refused to switch on high ball screens, again confusing the hell out of Kentucky who routinely feasts on switching.

I'm no Irish fan but they were huge underdogs going into that game and Brey came within one possession of making it happen.

When is the last time you saw Calipari blow his timeouts? He was in trouble and he knew it. Luckily, the Irish got a stop.

Every journalist in the region was discussing how Brey got his group to compete intelligently vs. a team that had more than 20 inches in size over the starting five -- masterful coaching, pure and simple.


BTW, if K goes up against Kentucky, you may be seeing history -- a true master figuring out how to pull of the improbable. Very similar to JoePa in the Desert. History only happens so often yet sports fans are mostly oblivious until years later.









This post was edited on 3/30 11:45 AM by ApexLion

 

[wbcincy]

Re: The reason Calipari didn't challenge ND

Originally posted by Art:
inside is that aside from Towns none of his big men have offensive skills. They can put back offensive rebounds, but making their own shots is a trip through Neverneverland.

Still seemed like the gameplan should've just been to feed Towns underneath every trip until they commit to the double team. ND could do very little to stop his baby hook.

Side note on NDs bigs: I played blackjack with zach auguste after his game last thursday night at Rivers in Pittsburgh. Guy was playing 2 hands and staying on 15s facing a dealer 10. It didnt go well.

 

[Art]

Agree that UK should have fed Towns more,

but he was in foul trouble for a good part of the game and is not the niftiest passer even as big men go.

As one of the commentators said after yesterday's game, the key to success in the tournament is winning when your team plays less than it's best game. Kentucky survived and we'll see if Calipari can tune-up his machine.

 

[ApexLion]

Art, how much more could they have gone inside?


Look at the stat sheet.

Kentucky shot 53 percent.

Out of 47 shots, maybe 18 could be outside of the paint and its more likely 14-15. The starting frontcourt had 28 shots and basically all were within five feet.

Brey rolled the dice and figured he was going to get enough threes and foul shots to offset Kentucky's considerable size advantage. It almost worked until ND missed some key free throws and went 4-14 from the three pt line. Now Kentucky doesn't double down so nobody shoots threes all night against them but at 6-14 or even a key score late, ND would have pulled this out.

 

[Obliviax]

fair point. I meant down the stretch*

sdf

 

[Obliviax]

I'd have gone inside until the defender fouled out...

as it stood, he was less effective down the stretch with five fouls. If I am a head coach, I do it until the opposition is forced to make an adjustment.

 

[jjsocrates]

Here's an interesting analysis:

Tom Izzo Is The Best Coach In Modern NCAA Tournament History - By Far

 

[Art]

NBA rules? Playing with

five fouls?

Alternatively, Towns could have fouled out and then UK would have had no inside option.

 

[Obliviax]

UK was much deeper than ND. Plus, much more likely for a defensive foul

against ND defender than offensive foul against UK player.

Back to depth, while UK could have lost their best offensive player, they still have a good 7 footer for defense. Losing, deep into the second quarter, risks were warranted.

 

[ApexLion]

ND made Kentucky one dimensional


But the three in the corner was what killed ND late.

Kentucky pounded the ball inside but if you have kids not being doubled and waiting for a double it creates confusion.

ND actually ran one double late and it surprised Kentucky.

Brey ran circles around Calipari in this game, by coaching every possession.

 

[Art]

Can't give you a number.

Enough times that ND changes its defense so that UK's perimeter shots became mid-range jumpers. Not guaranteed to work, but UK wasn't shooting well from the outside, that ordinarily isn't their game, and Cal need to do something to force ND's defense to concentrate more on the interior game.

Entirely possible that Brey would have stuck with his game plan, but I'm not sure that UK would have been much worse off forcing the ball down low more frequently.

 

[Art]

Certainly had more horses, but

other than Towns, no one who can consistently play down low offensively. If he fouled out that pretty much negates any size advantage UK had inside on offense.

 

[Obliviax]

I saw it differently...

ND C was dominating the paint. ND's C/PF, Auguste, had four fouls, was their leading scorer, and the only guy that had a prayer of stopping KAT. KAT had five fouls but UK also had taller players to fill the paint defensivly.

I'd have given it to KAT in the low post time after time after time. He had 25 points in only 25 minutes. I'd have forced ND to double down or to foul out their best offensive and defensive player. KAT would have worn out the paint until there was bare wood down there.

Why even call a different offensive play? It made no sense whatsoever. If ND is giving you an advantage, you take it, until they change. its like getting six yards a carry in football. Why pass? Until they stop the run, you bury them.

 

[Obliviax]

well, if you don't use him offenively because

you are afraid you can't use him offensively ...isn't that the same thing?

 

[Art]

I believe you are confusing different points*.

1/9

 

[simons96]

Originally posted by jjsocrates:

Here's an interesting analysis:

Tom Izzo Is The Best Coach In Modern NCAA Tournament History - By Far

great article, thanks

 

[ApexLion]

They didn't call another play


They posted up every time down in the last 10 minutes. Calipari is in a tough spot as the game goes on. Do you play your game or do you play ND's game? Remember, ND is much older than Calipari's group and the idea that you simply tell your kids to run one play actually complicates their play because they have been distributing the ball all season. The only way to beat 8 NBA players is to figure out a way to steal, rebound, and score with them enough while confusing them from time to time.

But going inside was the first look. Now whether entry was their or not, no, not always but Kentucky's offense was inside out the whole night but that is their game with that much size.

Towns had 13 shot in 25 minutes. That's pretty good on a team with 8 NBA players. They had at least 42 of their 68 in the paint.

Of course you can try to jam it into the paint even more but its a cat and mouse game. Kentucky kept looking for a double and it only came once late. August can jump which was another factor. Kentucky was 18-28 in the paint. Those misses are credit to August and his teammates being pests or at least being active enough.

I think Calipari knows he got out of there with some luck. He even said so courtside after the game.
This post was edited on 3/30 11:44 AM by ApexLion

 

[ILLINOISLION]

That's Usually The Case - The Lower The seed, The Tougher The Road!


Of course, it can change TO SOME DEGREE on the upsets as the brackets play out.....