Unemployment rate falls to 3.5%

bdgan

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May 29, 2008
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partly due to 50,000 people dropping out of the workforce.

I'm surprised and not surprised at the same time. We entered this "recession" with 11 million jobs and only 5 million looking. I figured we could lose a few million of the 11 million and still have plenty of jobs for most people. I don't see this as a big unemployment recession for the time being but I expect the 3.5% to gradually increase to 4.5% with the biggest hit coming during Q1.

Companies are looking at projected revenues and expenses for 2023. A lot of them won't make their cuts until year end. Companies like auto makers and chip manufacturers can't keep up as is so they won't be cutting staff anytime soon. Retailers are staffing up for Christmas so they won't be cutting back until 2023. Home builders are still finishing homes for buyers who got lower interest rate loans. That industry is likely to fall quite a bit but in the next 6 months.
 

Jerry

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May 29, 2001
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partly due to 50,000 people dropping out of the workforce.

I'm surprised and not surprised at the same time. We entered this "recession" with 11 million jobs and only 5 million looking. I figured we could lose a few million of the 11 million and still have plenty of jobs for most people. I don't see this as a big unemployment recession for the time being but I expect the 3.5% to gradually increase to 4.5% with the biggest hit coming during Q1.

Companies are looking at projected revenues and expenses for 2023. A lot of them won't make their cuts until year end. Companies like auto makers and chip manufacturers can't keep up as is so they won't be cutting staff anytime soon. Retailers are staffing up for Christmas so they won't be cutting back until 2023. Home builders are still finishing homes for buyers who got lower interest rate loans. That industry is likely to fall quite a bit but in the next 6 months.

And by the perverse principles now ruling our economy, this is actually bad news. It tees up another big rate hike on the part of the Fed, which is why the stock market is plummeting again this morning.
 

bdgan

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And by the perverse principles now ruling our economy, this is actually bad news. It tees up another big rate hike on the part of the Fed, which is why the stock market is plummeting again this morning.
It might be counterintuitive but it's not perverse. Investors are looking ahead and they think higher interest rates will lead to reduced corporate earnings down the road.
 

Jerry

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It might be counterintuitive but it's not perverse. Investors are looking ahead and they think higher interest rates will lead to reduced corporate earnings down the road.

Point taken.

My reference to "perverse" was not regarding investor behavior, which, as you say, is perfectly logical, but rather to a situation where a (supposed) decrease in the unemployment rate becomes bad news (on the macro-level) for the economy.

Our elites have built a system -- and this didn't happen overnight -- of bubble-driven wealth and out-of-control debt that protects and enriches their powerful friends at the expense of the masses of ordinary working people who don't benefit even as they foot the bill.

I think that's perverse...and I also think it's going to end very badly for everyone.
 

Catch50

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Feb 5, 2003
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Point taken.

My reference to "perverse" was not regarding investor behavior, which, as you say, is perfectly logical, but rather to a situation where a (supposed) decrease in the unemployment rate becomes bad news (on the macro-level) for the economy.

Our elites have built a system -- and this didn't happen overnight -- of bubble-driven wealth and out-of-control debt that protects and enriches their powerful friends at the expense of the masses of ordinary working people who don't benefit even as they foot the bill.

I think that's perverse...and I also think it's going to end very badly for everyone.
What horseshit ... whining about "elites".
 

Jerry

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What horseshit ... whining about "elites".

Well yes, you would think that since Dem-Media has become the Party of elites, the wealthy, and the privileged classes

Listen, just keep your head in the sand, Catch. You'll be fine.
 
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Catch50

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Well yes, you would think that since Dem-Media has become the Party of elites, the wealthy, and the privileged classes

Listen, just keep your head in the sand, Catch. You'll be fine.
Wrong. The Dem party is for regular people. You would think clean drinking water in Jackson, Ms. or Flint, Mich. is for elites.
 
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bdgan

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May 29, 2008
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Point taken.

My reference to "perverse" was not regarding investor behavior, which, as you say, is perfectly logical, but rather to a situation where a (supposed) decrease in the unemployment rate becomes bad news (on the macro-level) for the economy.

Our elites have built a system -- and this didn't happen overnight -- of bubble-driven wealth and out-of-control debt that protects and enriches their powerful friends at the expense of the masses of ordinary working people who don't benefit even as they foot the bill.

I think that's perverse...and I also think it's going to end very badly for everyone.
I think free market capitalism works fine with reasonable regulation and oversight. The problem is when our legislators keep spending money they don't have whether it be out of compassion or just to buy votes. Add a Federal Reserve that thinks they can play God by raising and lowering interest rates and buying and selling securities. Both congress and the fed eventually fail and that hurts everybody. I think it hurts everybody including the rich.