Updated blue chip ratio list

[NittanyIllinois]

Interesting if nothing else. Recruiting trumps all.

I would be curious to see what % of these rosters were top-100 recruits as opposed to 4/5*. That would give us a sense for which rosters have the most upper-tier blue chip talent......and the extent to which that matters.

Otherwise, a kid ranked #1 and a kid ranked #320 come out the same in this calculation. They're both "blue chip".

Blue-Chip Ratio 2021: The 16 teams who can win a national title

Is your favorite team signing enough blue-chips year over year to truly compete for national championships?

247sports.com

 

[ram2020]

Gotta recruit with the best if you are going to compete with them. Good to see us still on this.

 

[OhHello]

Interesting if nothing else. Recruiting trumps all.

I would be curious to see what % of these rosters were top-100 recruits as opposed to 4/5*. That would give us a sense for which rosters have the most upper-tier blue chip talent......and the extent to which that matters.

Otherwise, a kid ranked #1 and a kid ranked #320 come out the same in this calculation. They're both "blue chip".

Blue-Chip Ratio 2021: The 16 teams who can win a national title

Is your favorite team signing enough blue-chips year over year to truly compete for national championships?

247sports.com

Penn St has had 11 top 100 recruits in the last 3 years of draft eligible players Recruiting Classes 2016-2018. 36.36% of those were drafted into the NFL. Penn St had four 5-star players in this group. Penn St had no top 100 recruits in 2015 or 2014 so the last 5 years of draft eligible players were still 11 players total. Interestingly, Saquon Barkley, Chris Godwin, Marcus Allen, John Reid, Trace, and Gesicki all came from the years of no top 100 players (according to 247 overall rankings). So pretty darn elite players who were just not top 100 guys.

In contrast, Ohio St has had 31 top 100 recruits in 2016-2018 recruiting classes (32.26% were drafted) and 47 top 100 recruits (34.04% drafted) in the last 5 draft eligible years. Ohio St has had twelve 5-star players in this group.

Also, Alabama has had 27 top 100 recruits in the 2016-2018 recruiting classes (51.85% were drafted) and 50 top 100 recruits (54% drafted) in the last 5 draft eligible years. They also had 23 5-star players in this group.

This is what we are competing against. Ohio St has 4.3 times more top 100 players than PSU over the last 5 draft eligible classes. And while they were on par with Alabama in terms of top 100 recruits, they were only a little more than half as many 5-stars as Alabama.

This is why Ohio St should beat PSU every single year and it should not be nearly as close as it has been. The 5-star advantage is why Alabama has been better than Ohio St.

It absolutely is the Jimmies and the Joes. The numbers don't lie.

But we should take comfort in the fact that top 100 players in the last 5 draft eligible classes were drafted at a slightly higher rate than Ohio St DESPITE Ohio St's average top 100 player ranking being significantly higher than PSU's.

On the other hand, no one is getting top 100 players drafted as much as Alabama. Of course, Alabama has the highest average top 100 player ranking with their ridiculous number of 5-stars.

This is changing though. Georgia and Ohio St are now locking down as many 5-star players as Alabama in the more recent recruiting classes. So the pressure is on Georgia and Ohio St to actually do something on the field instead of always playing second fiddle to Alabama and Clemson.

 

[BW Lion]

Interesting if nothing else. Recruiting trumps all.

I would be curious to see what % of these rosters were top-100 recruits as opposed to 4/5*. That would give us a sense for which rosters have the most upper-tier blue chip talent......and the extent to which that matters.

Otherwise, a kid ranked #1 and a kid ranked #320 come out the same in this calculation. They're both "blue chip".

Blue-Chip Ratio 2021: The 16 teams who can win a national title

Is your favorite team signing enough blue-chips year over year to truly compete for national championships?

247sports.com

Sustained winning begets recruiting which begets continued winning, coaching provided.

For you delusional Franklin fans who insist that his marginal coaching (especially in-game and his revolving door assistants) coupled with average recruiting will truly return Penn State to national prominence, I have some really disappointing news for you

Franklin isn’t the person

 

[AWS1022]

Sustained winning begets recruiting which begets continued winning, coaching provided.

For you delusional Franklin fans who insist that his marginal coaching (especially in-game and his revolving door assistants) coupled with average recruiting will truly return Penn State to national prominence, I have some really disappointing news for you

Franklin isn’t the person

Blah blah blah.

 

[MaconNitt]

according to the article, the game against Auburn should be a dandy

 

[johnc73]

Sustained winning begets recruiting which begets continued winning, coaching provided.

For you delusional Franklin fans who insist that his marginal coaching (especially in-game and his revolving door assistants) coupled with average recruiting will truly return Penn State to national prominence, I have some really disappointing news for you

Franklin isn’t the person

Did he let his dog crap on your yard, or what? He's done a fine job after inheriting the roster mess OB left. Not sure I understand your beef with him other than your apparent desire for perfection. Sorry, that perfection ship sailed 2000 years ago.

 

[NittanyIllinois]

Penn St has had 11 top 100 recruits in the last 3 years of draft eligible players Recruiting Classes 2016-2018. 36.36% of those were drafted into the NFL. Penn St had four 5-star players in this group. Penn St had no top 100 recruits in 2015 or 2014 so the last 5 years of draft eligible players were still 11 players total. Interestingly, Saquon Barkley, Chris Godwin, Marcus Allen, John Reid, Trace, and Gesicki all came from the years of no top 100 players (according to 247 overall rankings). So pretty darn elite players who were just not top 100 guys.

In contrast, Ohio St has had 31 top 100 recruits in 2016-2018 recruiting classes (32.26% were drafted) and 47 top 100 recruits (34.04% drafted) in the last 5 draft eligible years. Ohio St has had twelve 5-star players in this group.

Also, Alabama has had 27 top 100 recruits in the 2016-2018 recruiting classes (51.85% were drafted) and 50 top 100 recruits (54% drafted) in the last 5 draft eligible years. They also had 23 5-star players in this group.

This is what we are competing against. Ohio St has 4.3 times more top 100 players than PSU over the last 5 draft eligible classes. And while they were on par with Alabama in terms of top 100 recruits, they were only a little more than half as many 5-stars as Alabama.

This is why Ohio St should beat PSU every single year and it should not be nearly as close as it has been. The 5-star advantage is why Alabama has been better than Ohio St.

It absolutely is the Jimmies and the Joes. The numbers don't lie.

But we should take comfort in the fact that top 100 players in the last 5 draft eligible classes were drafted at a slightly higher rate than Ohio St DESPITE Ohio St's average top 100 player ranking being significantly higher than PSU's.

On the other hand, no one is getting top 100 players drafted as much as Alabama. Of course, Alabama has the highest average top 100 player ranking with their ridiculous number of 5-stars.

This is changing though. Georgia and Ohio St are now locking down as many 5-star players as Alabama in the more recent recruiting classes. So the pressure is on Georgia and Ohio St to actually do something on the field instead of always playing second fiddle to Alabama and Clemson.

Good run down.

And if you look at the past three classes (2020-2021-2022), the disparity is even greater between PSU and OSU in terms of top-100 talent. The high-end talent gap is widening significantly.

3x top-100 kids for us (Tengwall, Jacobs, Theo Johnson). 25x top-100 kids for OSU.

We don't have any composite 5* kids during that time span. OSU has 12 of them.

The 2018 and 2019 classes provided hope that we were finally narrowing that gap. 2020 onward, however, threw that trend in reverse.

Looking at the numbers......it's time for UGA to cash in on their recruiting, because the results on the field aren't matching their recruiting results.

 

[wolve1972]

Looking at the numbers......it's time for UGA to cash in on their recruiting, because the results on the field aren't matching their recruiting results.

The problem for Georgia is that they have to deal with the 1000 lb gorilla - Alabama - every year in the SEC. Getting past them is easier said than done

 

[OhHello]

Good run down.

And if you look at the past three classes (2020-2021-2022), the disparity is even greater between PSU and OSU in terms of top-100 talent. The high-end talent gap is widening significantly.

3x top-100 kids for us (Tengwall, Jacobs, Theo Johnson). 25x top-100 kids for OSU.

We don't have any composite 5* kids during that time span. OSU has 12 of them.

The 2018 and 2019 classes provided hope that we were finally narrowing that gap. 2020 onward, however, threw that trend in reverse.

Looking at the numbers......it's time for UGA to cash in on their recruiting, because the results on the field aren't matching their recruiting results.

Truthfully the results on the field for Ohio St aren't matching the recruiting either. Alabama, Clemson, and even LSU bringing home titles and only Alabama and Georgia's recruiting is in the same league as Ohio St.

Plus, it is absolutely incredible that PSU has had a higher % of top 100 guys drafted than Ohio St the past 3 and 5 years. Their average top 100 ranking is much higher than PSU's but somehow PSU is putting more top 100 guys in the league. PSU is not on par with Alabama in this regard but no one is.

 

[danvillenit]

Plus, it is absolutely incredible that PSU has had a higher % of top 100 guys drafted than Ohio St the past 3 and 5 years. Their average top 100 ranking is much higher than PSU's but somehow PSU is putting more top 100 guys in the league. PSU is not on par with Alabama in this regard but no one is.

Higher percentage of a much lower number doesn’t mean much. There are probably teams that have a higher percentage than PSU on an even smaller number. All that matters on the field is OSU has way more top players up and down their roster.

 

[NittanyIllinois]

Truthfully the results on the field for Ohio St aren't matching the recruiting either. Alabama, Clemson, and even LSU bringing home titles and only Alabama and Georgia's recruiting is in the same league as Ohio St.

Plus, it is absolutely incredible that PSU has had a higher % of top 100 guys drafted than Ohio St the past 3 and 5 years. Their average top 100 ranking is much higher than PSU's but somehow PSU is putting more top 100 guys in the league. PSU is not on par with Alabama in this regard but no one is.

Re: OSU not living up to their recruiting.......in the CFP era, they've gone to the CFP 4 times, winning the title once and playing for the title another time. In their non-CFP seasons, they've finished the year #4, #5, and #3 in the country. It's true that only one title in that span isn't as much as they probably SHOULD have, but that's a pretty dynamite run......particularly during the peak Saban era.

Their final rankings: #1, #4, #6, #5, #3, #3, #2

If anything, Clemson has been overachieving, UGA underachieving, and OSU is probably right where they should be.

 

[Nitt1300]

Sustained winning begets recruiting which begets continued winning, coaching provided.

For you delusional Franklin fans who insist that his marginal coaching (especially in-game and his revolving door assistants) coupled with average recruiting will truly return Penn State to national prominence, I have some really disappointing news for you

Franklin isn’t the person

Pitt is always looking for new fans, why don't you sign up?

 

[OhHello]

Re: OSU not living up to their recruiting.......in the CFP era, they've gone to the CFP 4 times, winning the title once and playing for the title another time. In their non-CFP seasons, they've finished the year #4, #5, and #3 in the country. It's true that only one title in that span isn't as much as they probably SHOULD have, but that's a pretty dynamite run......particularly during the peak Saban era.

Their final rankings: #1, #4, #6, #5, #3, #3, #2

If anything, Clemson has been overachieving, UGA underachieving, and OSU is probably right where they should be.

Agreed Clemson has been overachieving, Alabama doing what they should, Georgia underachieving and I would put Ohio St as a slight underachiever as well. Ohio St has had the following talent ranking on their roster since 2015 (I don't have roster talent data for 2014 or earlier) and produced the following results.

2015 Talent #3, AP finish #4
2016 Talent #5, AP finish #6
2017 Talent #2, AP finish #5
2018 Talent #1, AP finish #3
2019 Talent #2, AP finish #3
2020 Talent #3, AP finish #2

Now don't get me wrong, I would take their results. But in those 6 years since 2015 only Alabama had better roster talent. Of course Alabama is 3 for 4 in national championship games over those 6 years. Ohio St is in their league talent-wise, just not results-wise (on the field or in the NFL draft).

The key for Penn St is to improve recruiting to be able to win against Ohio St every other year. But PSU's roster talent has been #21, #20, #19, #13, #10, and #13. Improving but it is clearly not in the same ball park as Ohio St's recruiting.

And like you said earlier, Ohio St's 5-star and top 100 recruiting has gone to a new level in the last few years. So we aren't closing the recruiting gap, it is actually widening. When looking at talent on the roster, there is no way we should have even been in the games with Ohio St the last 6 years. I'm not sure how we seem to almost always have them at least on the ropes late in the game.

But Franklin needs to start making a better pitch to the top 100 guys and 5 stars. They are getting drafted at PSU at a slightly better rate than Ohio St and likely will get earlier playing time at PSU.

Based on the current blue chip ratio in the OP's article, Penn St is again #13 in talent and Ohio St #3. The problem for us is that Ohio St's blue chip ratio is 150% of Penn St's and those blue chips on average were ranked higher than our blue chips.

The problem for Ohio St is that Alabama has a higher blue chip ratio and Clemson has almost caught up to them. Therefore, it will almost certainly be another Alabama vs Clemson title game unless Georgia finally knocks Alabama off. I don't know if I can take another year of Alabama vs Clemson for the title. Is that even still fun for Alabama and Clemson fans or are they bored of it yet?

 

[bvillebaron]

Did he let his dog crap on your yard, or what? He's done a fine job after inheriting the roster mess OB left. Not sure I understand your beef with him other than your apparent desire for perfection. Sorry, that perfection ship sailed 2000 years ago.

Apparently this guy was living under a rock when PSU won the Big Ten in 2016. If he had a clue, he would understand that based on this article and the talent disparity between the two programs, OSU should be handling PSU every year which is far from the case. But you are probably right, Franklin’s dog probably crapped in his yard (or should have).

 

[OhHello]

Higher percentage of a much lower number doesn’t mean much. There are probably teams that have a higher percentage than PSU on an even smaller number. All that matters on the field is OSU has way more top players up and down their roster.

Agreed, when the number of top 100 guys is like 5 or below then it probably doesn't mean much. But I'd say if you have at least 10 top 100 guys in the sample size then it starts to be representative of what the staff can do for that talent level. Heck, PSU doesn't even have guys like Barkley and Godwin in their numbers because they weren't considered top 100 recruits at the time. So PSU's top 100 numbers probably is under-representing what they have done in the draft.

 

[lazydave841]

It's tough to say OSU is underachievers when Bama has won as much as they have.

Clemson, while slight overachievers, has had excellent, NFL bound QBs and excellent DLs.

 

[NittanyIllinois]

Agreed Clemson has been overachieving, Alabama doing what they should, Georgia underachieving and I would put Ohio St as a slight underachiever as well. Ohio St has had the following talent ranking on their roster since 2015 (I don't have roster talent data for 2014 or earlier) and produced the following results.

2015 Talent #3, AP finish #4
2016 Talent #5, AP finish #6
2017 Talent #2, AP finish #5
2018 Talent #1, AP finish #3
2019 Talent #2, AP finish #3
2020 Talent #3, AP finish #2

Now don't get me wrong, I would take their results. But in those 6 years since 2015 only Alabama had better roster talent. Of course Alabama is 3 for 4 in national championship games over those 6 years. Ohio St is in their league talent-wise, just not results-wise (on the field or in the NFL draft).

The key for Penn St is to improve recruiting to be able to win against Ohio St every other year. But PSU's roster talent has been #21, #20, #19, #13, #10, and #13. Improving but it is clearly not in the same ball park as Ohio St's recruiting.

And like you said earlier, Ohio St's 5-star and top 100 recruiting has gone to a new level in the last few years. So we aren't closing the recruiting gap, it is actually widening. When looking at talent on the roster, there is no way we should have even been in the games with Ohio St the last 6 years. I'm not sure how we seem to almost always have them at least on the ropes late in the game.

But Franklin needs to start making a better pitch to the top 100 guys and 5 stars. They are getting drafted at PSU at a slightly better rate than Ohio St and likely will get earlier playing time at PSU.

Based on the current blue chip ratio in the OP's article, Penn St is again #13 in talent and Ohio St #3. The problem for us is that Ohio St's blue chip ratio is 150% of Penn St's and those blue chips on average were ranked higher than our blue chips.

The problem for Ohio St is that Alabama has a higher blue chip ratio and Clemson has almost caught up to them. Therefore, it will almost certainly be another Alabama vs Clemson title game unless Georgia finally knocks Alabama off. I don't know if I can take another year of Alabama vs Clemson for the title. Is that even still fun for Alabama and Clemson fans or are they bored of it yet?

That's a good analysis, and very fair. I agree with all your points -- although I think OSU and Clemson are neck-and-neck for that #2 spot behind Bama. Especially with OSU's QB and WR recruiting.

I admit to being a bit surprised by two coinciding trends: (1) our recruiting dip after the success of the 2018-19 classes, and (2) OSU's improvement in recruiting under Ryan Day.

I never expected OSU to recruit at an even higher level post-Urb. But Day is doing it. Urb was an elite recruiter, but what OSU has done in the 2021-22 classes is all-time for them.

And while our 2020-2022 recruiting haul has been commendable, we have taken a noticeable step back in high-end talent. Can we make up for that through player development, the portal, etc.? Of course. And some of our greatest legends in this program were not high-end recruits. But on the aggregate.......the more high-end recruits, the better on-field results.

 

[Wallace Breen]

the so-called Blue Chip Ratio has proven to be a an exercise in confirmation bias, nothing more, nothing less.

 

[NittanyIllinois]

the so-called Blue Chip Ratio has proven to be a an exercise in confirmation bias, nothing more, nothing less.

In what way?

As far as I can tell, no national champion this century has failed to meet the 50% blue chip ratio. And as the article notes, the vast majority of CFP teams lately have been BCR teams.

Seems like the correlation is pretty strong.

 

[Wallace Breen]

Did he let his dog crap on your yard, or what? He's done a fine job after inheriting the roster mess OB left. Not sure I understand your beef with him other than your apparent desire for perfection. Sorry, that perfection ship sailed 2000 years ago.

Except for the fact that he didn't inherit a roster mess. His first offensive staff, almost all of which should have been left in Nashville, were flatly incapable of using the talent on hand.

 

[NewEra 2014]

Except for the fact that he didn't inherit a roster mess. His first offensive staff, almost all of which should have been left in Nashville, were flatly incapable of using the talent on hand.

This is exactly correct. Inheriting a roster with 17 TEs and 4 interior OL players should have resulted in multiple national championships.

 

[Wallace Breen]

This is exactly correct. Inheriting a roster with 17 TEs and 4 interior OL players should have resulted in multiple national championships.

Except for the fact that the first O staff benched ZZ Top for a 3rd down back, benched the best returning deep threat in the Big Ten for a true freshmen whose inconsistency was legendary and benched a legit starting TE for a true freshmen who didn't understand how to run routes. Never mind what Ricky Rahne did to Hack's mechanics which borders on criminal or those converted DTs (both recruited as O-linemen) rated as above average Big Ten linemen when executing man blocking schemes. Simple fact. Franklin's first offense was the worst coach offense in college football history. The roster was not perfect but wasn't a problem either. The staff was, and that is 100% on CJF. It almost got him fired and cost us a playoff spot in 2016.

 

[NewEra 2014]

Except for the fact that the first O staff benched ZZ Top for a 3rd down back, benched the best returning deep threat in the Big Ten for a true freshmen whose inconsistency was legendary and benched a legit starting TE for a true freshmen who didn't understand how to run routes. Never mind what Ricky Rahne did to Hack's mechanics which borders on criminal or those converted DTs (both recruited as O-linemen) rated as above average Big Ten linemen when executing man blocking schemes. Simple fact. Franklin's first offense was the worst coach offense in college football history. The roster was not perfect but wasn't a problem either. The staff was, and that is 100% on CJF. It almost got him fired and cost us a playoff spot in 2016.

Sure Jan

 

[Wallace Breen]

Sure Jan

Thanks for accepting reality.

 

[NJPSU]

Except for the fact that the first O staff benched ZZ Top for a 3rd down back, benched the best returning deep threat in the Big Ten for a true freshmen whose inconsistency was legendary and benched a legit starting TE for a true freshmen who didn't understand how to run routes. Never mind what Ricky Rahne did to Hack's mechanics which borders on criminal or those converted DTs (both recruited as O-linemen) rated as above average Big Ten linemen when executing man blocking schemes. Simple fact. Franklin's first offense was the worst coach offense in college football history. The roster was not perfect but wasn't a problem either. The staff was, and that is 100% on CJF. It almost got him fired and cost us a playoff spot in 2016.

Who were those 2 and 3 star converted DT’s we were forced to start on the OL? I’ve already forgotten their names. The OL talent Franklin inherited was the worst in program history.

 

[lazydave841]

How many of the players JF inherited 1) got drafted 2) spent more than 2 years in the league?