USA COVID-19 Vaccination Updates

PSUEngineer89

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In the Name of inclusiveness we’ve lost standards. Good is bad. Bad is good. A person robbing a bank only did so because society made him. A self made millionaire obviously did so by exploiting people. Everyone team that plays gets a trophy while the winner is accused of cheating.

as such were no longer seek to improve. Instead of going to class and get better, we go to a club to be entertained We no longer seek to create wealth, we seek to take away wealth.

i went to an Irish American society man of the year celebration a few weeks ago. The winner said when he was a kid he saw that big house on the hill and said ‘a am going to be that guy done day’. Today they say ‘I am going to get that guy some day’.
While that wasn't what I was posting about, your point above is EXACTLY right.
 

MacNit07

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I have no issue with people getting vaccines. I didn't even have a huge issue with the original vaccine mandate. But we know now that the current vaccine does nothing stop infection (and thereby transmission) so all vaccine mandates should be gone. There is literally no scientific reason to have a vaccine mandate at this point. And no reason to have kids being recommended by the CDC to get vaccines. But yet the CDC (and govt) still demanding it and social media deplatforming anybody that questions it. That is what is horribly wrong right now.

For masking. I never question when I see an old person wearing a mask. But college kids and twenty somethings that I see wearing them are who I question.
But masks (except N95) are not to protect the wearer…and N95 must be properly fitted…so that makes no sense either.
 

MacNit07

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I've said this for at least two years "We are on our own.". There is nobody to trust. My last holdout was NPR. I know they "lean" but had, at least, a low level of fairness. I heard an interview two years ago when they were discussing how the state of Arkansas was handling the financial drain on the increase in hospitalizations. The person in charge stated that they were getting more govt money if the person tested positive for COVID so there was no problem, financially, at all. And started to explain the drain on other diseases to conclude that there was a risk in that providers were admitting COVID cases over other, more pressing, health issues. The interviewer abruptly cut him off for no reason and you could tell she was pissed that he said that. That is when I knew the fix was in.
National Pinko Radio? They have been a laughingstock of heavy liberal bias for decades.
 

Online Persona

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There are a lot of problems with the data. Including was it age adjusted? Meaning when we divide by people vaccinated or people unvaccinated, is that number the number for the old age group.

Some of the sites used to say "age-adjusted", both others made no mention of it.

Regardless, one thing is for sure - the previous data suggested that the vaccine was really helping avoid death, and now the data suggests that's not the case.
A competent and honest CDC would have established consistent data reporting requirements to the states and publish that data along with their assessments. We don't have a competent or honest CDC. These are basic things that supposedly the world's superpower is unable unwilling to do. If we the people cannot analyze the data, then the cdc can do and say whatever they want.
 

bcspsu

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A competent and honest CDC would have established consistent data reporting requirements to the states and publish that data along with their assessments. We don't have a competent or honest CDC. These are basic things that supposedly the world's superpower is unable unwilling to do. If we the people cannot analyze the data, then the cdc can do and say whatever they want.
Fortunately, because of the plethora of available data, many of us were able to analyze and interpret the data and conclude that the "experts" after a certain point were being dishonest and untruthful for obvious reasons. Also fortunately, there were some courageous leaders, and I think that we know who they are, who made bold decisions based on a correct interpretation of the data that went against the dishonest and untruthful mandates promulgated by the "experts."
 

bison13

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Most of the elderly are vaccinated so I would expect more of the vaccinated per 100K to die. Also, if I'm reading your chart correctly, about 1 person per 100K people die each day from covid? If correct, this is a very small number and assumes that the death is coded properly.

Does anyone know if the government is still paying funeral expenses?
I dont think so as my grandmother passed last month and even though we knew it wasn't covid, the deputy coroner said that he has many people still asking and told us he would not label it that way.
 

WPTLION

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A competent and honest CDC would have established consistent data reporting requirements to the states and publish that data along with their assessments. We don't have a competent or honest CDC. These are basic things that supposedly the world's superpower is unable unwilling to do. If we the people cannot analyze the data, then the cdc can do and say whatever they want.
Remember PA corrected death data TWICE. Both times down because of double counting.
 
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Obliviax

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Fortunately, because of the plethora of available data, many of us were able to analyze and interpret the data and conclude that the "experts" after a certain point were being dishonest and untruthful for obvious reasons. Also fortunately, there were some courageous leaders, and I think that we know who they are, who made bold decisions based on a correct interpretation of the data that went against the dishonest and untruthful mandates promulgated by the "experts."
Well, I am not sure that access to data is going to exist much longer. Remember, several people who questioned the data on youtube, twitter and facebook got banned (de-platformed). Although many were very qualified individuals. Our govt just got done trying to get a "ministry of information" approved and has been exposed strong-arming media (MSM and social) to "comply" with govt mandated messaging. I learned, this moring, India is trying to take control of the internet.
 

bcspsu

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Well, I am not sure that access to data is going to exist much longer. Remember, several people who questioned the data on youtube, twitter and facebook got banned (de-platformed). Although many were very qualified individuals. Our govt just got done trying to get a "ministry of information" approved and has been exposed strong-arming media (MSM and social) to "comply" with govt mandated messaging. I learned, this moring, India is trying to take control of the internet.
Well, that's what happened to Alex Berenson, a former NY Times writer whom I believe was thrown off of Twitter or some other social media site. I followed him from the start of this, and all that he was guilty of was just presenting the results from studies from all over the world that basically produced results that didn't align with what Dr. Fauci and the CDC were telling us. Fortunately, he has been given a platform on some evening shows.
 

Obliviax

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Well, that's what happened to Alex Berenson, a former NY Times writer whom I believe was thrown off of Twitter or some other social media site. I followed him from the start of this, and all that he was guilty of was just presenting the results from studies from all over the world that basically produced results that didn't align with what Dr. Fauci and the CDC were telling us. Fortunately, he has been given a platform on some evening shows.
A court ruled, the other day, that the CDC has to release emails and notes from other communications between them and the social media sites. I am sure that is being appealed. But I know of several outlets, basically also releasing data and questioning the conclusions, on Youtube, Twitter and Facebook that were not only deleted, but banned indefinitely. The other issue was suggesting that the virus was man-made in Wuhan got you banned.

We no longer live in a free country.
 

Online Persona

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Which is why I only looked at TOTAL DEATHS.

When I found that TOTAL DEATHS matched Covid deaths, then I trusted the Covid data a little more.
Yes because if total deaths increased while offering tens of thousands to code deaths as covid, additional deaths were coded as covid. It is systematic error introduced by big money to the data collectors.
 
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RussianEagle

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My son does an after school club sports program a local college. So my wife and I dropped him off and got dinner at this food truck area they have that has some tables as such a beautiful night out. You see more mask wearing on a college campus then you do anywhere else that I have been. And considering the risk factor of people age 18-23 is basically zero outside of a triple co-morbidity (who are not the type of people walking around a college campus looking pretty healthy), what is the explanation that the largest percentage of the population wearing masks is the group that has the lowest, non-existent risk.
A mask is nothing but the left-wing version of the “Make America Great Again “ hat!
 

SLUPSU

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Interesting data point on vaccine effectiveness from Indiana.

This data suggests that the vaccine is no longer helping at all.

I will post some more of this.

But it surely is hard to accept that you ought to vaccinate any person under 21.

Indiana-Breakthrough-Deaths-Vaccine-Effectiveness-Sept-2022-Update.png
I don't think you can draw any meaningful conclusions on Indiana at this time because the death numbers are effectively zero for both vac'd and unvac'd, look at the hospitalization numbers, they're probably better indicators.

Here's a link for Indiana and other states, the numbers still look good.

 

PSUEngineer89

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I don't think you can draw any meaningful conclusions on Indiana at this time because the death numbers are effectively zero for both vac'd and unvac'd, look at the hospitalization numbers, they're probably better indicators.

Here's a link for Indiana and other states, the numbers still look good.

I’m not sure I trust hospitalizations.

California data says 3.6x more likely to die if unvaxxed.

I cannot see the Colorado data.

I don’t think it takes too much data to be significant.

Mass used to have good data, and Wisconsin.

I can’t find either.
 

SLUPSU

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I’m not sure I trust hospitalizations.

California data says 3.6x more likely to die if unvaxxed.

I cannot see the Colorado data.

I don’t think it takes too much data to be significant.

Mass used to have good data, and Wisconsin.

I can’t find either.
I don't recall using MA or WI links in the past... couldn't find anything.

Go back to the CO link and click on the large "State Level" button, click on the Death Due to Covid" button (only goes through July).
 
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MacNit07

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This state was one of the most dishonest regarding this matter. That's why nobody associated with the current Governor's administration ever should be elected again.
But instead the health official responsible for most of the dishonesty and incompetency was promoted by Biden to a federal level job!
 
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PSUEngineer89

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Yes because if total deaths increased while offering tens of thousands to code deaths as covid, additional deaths were coded as covid. It is systematic error introduced by big money to the data collectors.
The motive to do so (miscode on purpose) was definitely there. However, the analysis I conducted essentially demonstrates that, if it was done, it was done at small scale.

I don't know why you can't see it. There is no other explanation for why TOTAL DEATHS went up as Covid surged, declined to almost normal levels as Covid waned, resurged to 80,000 per week, and then went back down, surged yet again and declined again, all while Covid (whether Alpha, Delta, or Omicron) perfectly correlated with CASES (even though the test is not that accurate).

I asked you before, and saw no answer - "What caused that PATTERN of extra deaths?"
 

Online Persona

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The motive to do so (miscode on purpose) was definitely there. However, the analysis I conducted essentially demonstrates that, if it was done, it was done at small scale.

I don't know why you can't see it. There is no other explanation for why TOTAL DEATHS went up as Covid surged, declined to almost normal levels as Covid waned, resurged to 80,000 per week, and then went back down, surged yet again and declined again, all while Covid (whether Alpha, Delta, or Omicron) perfectly correlated with CASES (even though the test is not that accurate).

I asked you before, and saw no answer - "What caused that PATTERN of extra deaths?"
When my dad got covid he was in an in patient rehab recovering from his stroke. He didn't show up with covid. He was there for over a month as were other patients and then one by one they all got covid. Why? Someone or multiple people brought it in, likely an employee, and breathed probably for a couple of days to a week of 8 hour shifts until there was enough virus per million air molecules to overcome the immune system of one of the patients.

Then the patient who now had covid breathed virus 24/7 continuing to increase the viral density as very low percentage of air was being exchanged with the outside in their shared ventilation environment. So another and then another patient tested positive until most of them did. Not one of them showed up to the rehab center with covid. Most of them eventually tested positive. If any of them died, they would have been coded as a covid death. But complications of their stroke or brain injuries would have been the real reason. It would be perfectly correlated with 2 to 3 weeks after covid cases peaked in our general population. Dad was fine by the way and is still improving with outpatient therapy.

The same thing occurred with my grandmother in an assisted living home twice. A worker, guest, or likely multiple workers brought covid into their low ventilation environment which they breathed in 24/7 and covid spread like wildfire. She tested positive on 2 separate occasions timed with the peaks of covid cases in our general population. At age 90, she fought it off twice relatively easily. Unfortunately this assisted living community lost dozens of elderly residents that were coded covid. The residents didn't have a chance as many were pretty much going to pass within months regardless. But covid finished them off at the ages and many with a multitude of comorbidities.

Now think about hospitalizations. These people can show up for any reason and many life threatening. Then they are housed 24/7 in a shared ventilation environment with only a certain small percentage of rooms having adequate exchange with outside air to call them covid rooms. So the same process occurs in inpatient hospitalizations as above.

If the covid case rate in the general population surges, there is a significant probability of workers or inbound patients bringing covid into a shared ventilation environment in which patients reside 24/7 and breath 24/7 whatever viral load has built up there and not been exchanged with outside air.

A high percentage of patients breathing high viral loads 24/7 will test positive usually within a few days at most regardless of the reasons they were admitted. Then on a 2 to 3 week delay from the surge in covid cases amongst the general population, you will see many deaths of patients in these 24/7 shared ventilation environments.

Did covid kill them? Or was it that they were hospitalized for life threatening reasons and then acquired a covid infection while battling their reasons for admittance to the hospital? What do you think the hospitals coded their death as? Heart disease? Cancer? Lung disease? Or did they code them as covid and pocket tens of thousands of dollars at a time when most of their revenue generating procedures were suspended because of their covid policies?

I've shared the experience of my own mother here many pages back. She fought cancer for 15 years and passed in April. A year and a half ago as cancer really began kicking her butt, she was admitted to the hospital with double pneumonia likely as a side effect of weakened immune system and some of her medications which made her prone to those things. When she was admitted, she tested negative for covid but had similar symptoms. So they forced her to a covid room with high ventilation (very cold, loud from ventilation equipment, a nurse came in 4 times every 24 hours, etc.). Well she didn't have use of her left arm because a tumor on her brachial plexus had killed off the nerves down that limb. And her right arm had IVs it in and was somewhat restrained.

For 2 days until the had results of a 2nd negative test, she had to stay in this covid room unable to even scratch an itch or ask for help or communicate with anyone including her family. She was convinced that she would die there, alone, and never see or hear from her family again.

But when that 2nd negative test showed up, she went back to general population and was allowed one visitor. Had she died in that covid room, negative, but with similar symptoms, what do you think that hospital would have coded her? I can tell you that she refused to ever set foot in a hospital again because the covid experience was that traumatic and she didn't even have it.

My point is that there is a very simple reason for the correlation of excess deaths and covid cases amongst the population. The reason is science. Probability of infections increases. Viral load increases in shared ventilation environments including the most vulnerable in nursing homes and hospitals. The most vulnerable in those environments are breathing high viral loads 24/7 no matter why they were admitted or reside there. Many of the most vulnerable test positive a few days later and due to their vulnerabilities a reasonably high percentage die within 2 to 3 weeks.

Did they die of covid? They tested positive and were coded covid deaths. But a very high percentage of them were dying of something else and then tested positive or were extremely weakened and then covid came along and finished the job.

All of the covid statistics bear this age and multiple comorbidities correlation out. The science of how viruses are propagated tells us shared ventilation environments are the highest probability of mass propagation. The shared ventilation environments also house our most vulnerable.
 
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PSUEngineer89

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When my dad got covid he was in an in patient rehab recovering from his stroke. He didn't show up with covid. He was there for over a month as were other patients and then one by one they all got covid. Why? Someone or multiple people brought it in, likely an employee, and breathed probably for a couple of days to a week of 8 hour shifts until there was enough virus per million air molecules to overcome the immune system of one of the patients.

Then the patient who now had covid breathed virus 24/7 continuing to increase the viral density as very low percentage of air was being exchanged with the outside in their shared ventilation environment. So another and then another patient tested positive until most of them did. Not one of them showed up to the rehab center with covid. Most of them eventually tested positive. If any of them died, they would have been coded as a covid death. But complications of their stroke or brain injuries would have been the real reason. It would be perfectly correlated with 2 to 3 weeks after covid cases peaked in our general population. Dad was fine by the way and is still improving with outpatient therapy.

The same thing occurred with my grandmother in an assisted living home twice. A worker, guest, or likely multiple workers brought covid into their low ventilation environment which they breathed in 24/7 and covid spread like wildfire. She tested positive on 2 separate occasions timed with the peaks of covid cases in our general population. At age 90, she fought it off twice relatively easily. Unfortunately this assisted living community lost dozens of elderly residents that were coded covid. The residents didn't have a chance as many were pretty much going to pass within months regardless. But covid finished them off at the ages and many with a multitude of comorbidities.

Now think about hospitalizations. These people can show up for any reason and many life threatening. Then they are housed 24/7 in a shared ventilation environment with only a certain small percentage of rooms having adequate exchange with outside air to call them covid rooms. So the same process occurs in inpatient hospitalizations as above.

If the covid case rate in the general population surges, there is a significant probability of workers or inbound patients bringing covid into a shared ventilation environment in which patients reside 24/7 and breath 24/7 whatever viral load has built up there and not been exchanged with outside air.

A high percentage of patients breathing high viral loads 24/7 will test positive usually within a few days at most regardless of the reasons they were admitted. Then on a 2 to 3 week delay from the surge in covid cases amongst the general population, you will see many deaths of patients in these 24/7 shared ventilation environments.

Did covid kill them? Or was it that they were hospitalized for life threatening reasons and then acquired a covid infection while battling their reasons for admittance to the hospital? What do you think the hospitals coded their death as? Heart disease? Cancer? Lung disease? Or did they code them as covid and pocket tens of thousands of dollars at a time when most of their revenue generating procedures were suspended because of their covid policies?

I've shared the experience of my own mother here many pages back. She fought cancer for 15 years and passed in April. A year and a half ago as cancer really began kicking her butt, she was admitted to the hospital with double pneumonia likely as a side effect of weakened immune system and some of her medications which made her prone to those things. When she was admitted, she tested negative for covid but had similar symptoms. So they forced her to a covid room with high ventilation (very cold, loud from ventilation equipment, a nurse came in 4 times every 24 hours, etc.). Well she didn't have use of her left arm because a tumor on her brachial plexus had killed off the nerves down that limb. And her right arm had IVs it in and was somewhat restrained.

For 2 days until the had results of a 2nd negative test, she had to stay in this covid room unable to even scratch an itch or ask for help or communicate with anyone including her family. She was convinced that she would die there, alone, and never see or hear from her family again.

But when that 2nd negative test showed up, she went back to general population and was allowed one visitor. Had she died in that covid room, negative, but with similar symptoms, what do you think that hospital would have coded her? I can tell you that she refused to ever set foot in a hospital again because the covid experience was that traumatic and she didn't even have it.

My point is that there is a very simple reason for the correlation of excess deaths and covid cases amongst the population. The reason is science. Probability of infections increases. Viral load increases in shared ventilation environments including the most vulnerable in nursing homes and hospitals. The most vulnerable in those environments are breathing high viral loads 24/7 no matter why they were admitted or reside there. Many of the most vulnerable test positive a few days later and due to their vulnerabilities a reasonably high percentage die within 2 to 3 weeks.

Did they die of covid? They tested positive and were coded covid deaths. But a very high percentage of them were dying of something else and then tested positive or were extremely weakened and then covid came along and finished the job.

All of the covid statistics bear this age and multiple comorbidities correlation out. The science of how viruses are propagated tells us shared ventilation environments are the highest probability of mass propagation. The shared ventilation environments also house our most vulnerable.

We all know that Covid was only picking off the old and frail.

It seems like you are agreeing that they died because of Covid, even if their average additional life expectancy was only 24 months more or so Until Covid got them.
 

Online Persona

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We all know that Covid was only picking off the old and frail.

It seems like you are agreeing that they died because of Covid, even if their average additional life expectancy was only 24 months more or so Until Covid got them.
No. A portion did. I'm not saying that covid didn't exist. But many died of whatever admitted them to the hospital before they picked up covid in the hospital.

Nursing homes were the early dry tinder for excess deaths and continue to an extent. Negative impacts of shutdowns and in particular becoming a covid-only medical system overnight created new dry tinder.

It is probable (and the American heart association and American cancer associations back it up) that well over a million heart disease and cancer diagnosis didn't not occur or did very much delayed (which greatly decreases positive outcomes) due to the COVID-only medical system. I have personally lost multiple friends age 50 and under during this period that were not diagnosed. Some died without a covid diagnosis and some died with covid but from sudden heart failure.

These are your excess deaths to go along with an aging population that wasn't getting regular medical screening and care for 2 years. Plus, you know that half a dozen democrat governors including Wolf in PA required nursing homes to accept still covid infectious recovering patients by public health order. Those decisions were mass premeditated murder.
 
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PSUEngineer89

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No. A portion did. I'm not saying that covid didn't exist. But many died of whatever admitted them to the hospital before they picked up covid in the hospital.

Nursing homes were the early dry tinder for excess deaths and continue to an extent. Negative impacts of shutdowns and in particular becoming a covid-only medical system overnight created new dry tinder.

It is probable (and the American heart association and American cancer associations back it up) that well over a million heart disease and cancer diagnosis didn't not occur or did very much delayed (which greatly decreases positive outcomes) due to the COVID-only medical system. I have personally lost multiple friends age 50 and under during this period that were not diagnosed. Some died without a covid diagnosis and some died with covid but from sudden heart failure.

These are your excess deaths to go along with an aging population that wasn't getting regular medical screening and care for 2 years. Plus, you know that half a dozen democrat governors including Wolf in PA required nursing homes to accept still covid infectious recovering patients by public health order. Those decisions were mass premeditated murder.
If a substantial portion of excess deaths were due to failed diagnoses of cancer or heart disease, what would we see?

We would see a general increase in excess deaths, week after week. Cancer doesn’t kill people in big spikes in June, then recede, then surge again in Dec. Not does heart disease.

Those diseases (and all non infectious diseases) kill steadily.

I don’t dispute that some deaths due to poor medical care happened, just that it was too small to be the primary driver of excess deaths.
 

WPTLION

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If a substantial portion of excess deaths were due to failed diagnoses of cancer or heart disease, what would we see?

We would see a general increase in excess deaths, week after week. Cancer doesn’t kill people in big spikes in June, then recede, then surge again in Dec. Not does heart disease.

Those diseases (and all non infectious diseases) kill steadily.

I don’t dispute that some deaths due to poor medical care happened, just that it was too small to be the primary driver of excess deaths.
There was a nursing home near here that had a bunch of people die after a patient from NY transferred in. I don't remember the exact count but it was at least in the teens. Our coroner said these people would have died had they caught the common cold. Now we can all agree that the common cold apparently is a lot more preventable then Covid. So Covid came into the home and spread quickly. These "dry tinder" folks weren't dying on ventilators or whatever the classic covid way to die is. They just passed, the same way they would have if they caught a cold and their immune system was weak. So if this is argument is they died "of" covid, then you also have to start coding every death of with the common cold and I'll agree with your argument. But that is not how its ever been done.
 

Online Persona

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No. A portion is due to covid or covid finishing the job a little early. I think we generally disagree on the proportion of covid coded deaths that are covid as a primary or significant cause. I believe a very statistically significant number of covid coded deaths are simply with covid coincidentally and with covid being ancillary or inconsequential to the cause of death.

So the excess deaths historically and projected are oscillatory with maxima coinciding with winter when many causes of death for millenia tax our systems more. For covid, there are a couple of secondary and much smaller maxima that show up in the summer as you note which correlates to the relative impact of covid both in terms of time and magnitude. It is essentially when people are escaping the heat in doors in shared ventilation.

Though you will note that amplitude of the excess death maxima in the winter is maybe 50% higher than the amplitude of the secondary maxima in the summers. https:/www.usmortality.com

This tells us that maybe 50% of the covid coded deaths are actually due to covid as that magnitude shows up in all maxima that are present summer or winter. However the winter maxima have about twice as many excess deaths as summer maxima. Why? Approximately 50% of amplitude increase of winter maxima is due to covid and 50% is due to ALL OTHER variables that we have changed which I suspect is dominated by the covid-only medical approach that left people undiagnosed and untreated for early symptoms of the causes of death that naturally were more prevalent during the winter maxima for millenia. They were just coded covid because they acquired covid or had covid like symptoms after being admitted and breathing high viral density in a hospital due to shared ventilation.
 
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PSUEngineer89

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No. A portion is due to covid or covid finishing the job a little early. I think we generally disagree on the proportion of covid coded deaths that are covid as a primary or significant cause. I believe a very statistically significant number of covid coded deaths are simply with covid coincidentally and with covid being ancillary or inconsequential to the cause of death.

So the excess deaths historically and projected are oscillatory with maxima coinciding with winter when many causes of death for millenia tax our systems more. For covid, there are a couple of secondary and much smaller maxima that show up in the summer as you note which correlates to the relative impact of covid both in terms of time and magnitude. It is essentially when people are escaping the heat in doors in shared ventilation.

Though you will note that amplitude of the excess death maxima in the winter is maybe 50% higher than the amplitude of the secondary maxima in the summers. https:/www.usmortality.com

This tells us that maybe 50% of the covid coded deaths are actually due to covid as that magnitude shows up in all maxima that are present summer or winter. However the winter maxima have about twice as many excess deaths as summer maxima. Why? Approximately 50% of amplitude increase of winter maxima is due to covid and 50% is due to ALL OTHER variables that we have changed which I suspect is dominated by the covid-only medical approach that left people undiagnosed and untreated for early symptoms of the causes of death that naturally were more prevalent during the winter maxima for millenia. They were just coded covid because they acquired covid or had covid like symptoms after being admitted and breathing high viral density in a hospital due to shared ventilation.
If it were true that Covid wasn’t the cause, then the excess deaths would have been steadily higher than average, not spiky.

Heart disease, cancer, vaccine reactions would all be non-cyclical.

Only a transmissible disease shows spikes and declines followed by more spikes and declines.

Take undiagnosed heart disease and try to explain why there were excess heart disease deaths in Nov and Dec of 2020, followed by none in March and April of 2021, followed by more heart disease deaths in June/July 2021.
 

Online Persona

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If it were true that Covid wasn’t the cause, then the excess deaths would have been steadily higher than average, not spiky.

Heart disease, cancer, vaccine reactions would all be non-cyclical.

Only a transmissible disease shows spikes and declines followed by more spikes and declines.

Take undiagnosed heart disease and try to explain why there were excess heart disease deaths in Nov and Dec of 2020, followed by none in March and April of 2021, followed by more heart disease deaths in June/July 2021.
Other leading all cause death diseases are somewhat cyclical. There is a reason why the all cause deaths oscillated for millenia with maxima in winter when the body is taxed due to cold exposures, confinement indoors, or more sedentary behavior among other changes. I'm sure that you see this natural oscillation in all cause deaths well beyond covid years. It's always existed.

Also, if you reread my explanation above, I do not attribute the much smaller secondary maxima in all cause deaths in the last couple of summers to heart disease and other leading causes of death. I specifically said that this much smaller maxima in those couple of summers is likely the true impact of covid. And this true impact extrapolates to about the same magnitude during the much higher maxima in winters with the excess above that being the amplification of heart disease and other leading all cause deaths that do naturally have maxima in the winter and explains why the winter maxima of excess deaths during covid is at least twice as high as summer. If you would like I can draw this on a graphical overlay of all cause and excess deaths so that you can more easily understand it.
 

PSUEngineer89

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Other leading all cause death diseases are somewhat cyclical. There is a reason why the all cause deaths oscillated for millenia with maxima in winter when the body is taxed due to cold exposures, confinement indoors, or more sedentary behavior among other changes. I'm sure that you see this natural oscillation in all cause deaths well beyond covid years. It's always existed.

Also, if you reread my explanation above, I do not attribute the much smaller secondary maxima in all cause deaths in the last couple of summers to heart disease and other leading causes of death. I specifically said that this much smaller maxima in those couple of summers is likely the true impact of covid. And this true impact extrapolates to about the same magnitude during the much higher maxima in winters with the excess above that being the amplification of heart disease and other leading all cause deaths that do naturally have maxima in the winter and explains why the winter maxima of excess deaths during covid is at least twice as high as summer. If you would like I can draw this on a graphical overlay of all cause and excess deaths so that you can more easily understand it.
Yea, please graph it.

You know my excess death curve includes the typical yearly summer and winter death oscillation?
 

Online Persona

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Yea, please graph it.

You know my exceswos death curve includes the typical yearly summer and winter death oscillation?

Would gladly do that. I have the image on my phone but cannot get it to paste here. Copy, paste, nothing happens. Also tried uploading to imgur to use the image link but apparently this site doesn't like imgur.
 

PSUEngineer89

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Would gladly do that. I have the image on my phone but cannot get it to paste here. Copy, paste, nothing happens. Also tried uploading to imgur to use the image link but apparently this site doesn't like imgur.
I post a zillion snips. Procedure below:

A. Use the "snipping tool" to take a snip.
B. Save it on your hard drive. C:/Desktop/SomeFolder/SubFolder/WhateverYouWanted.PNG
C. Open the website: https://postimages.org/
D. Make the obvious selections on that website (And they really are very, very obvious).
E. Copy the link that describes the image, shown highlighted as example below.

Post-Image-Instructions-I.png



F. Paste that https.......// in the INSERT IMAGE icon on this forum (don't use the link, use image).
 

Online Persona

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Who is deciding the "amplification" noted there? Provide a link to the source of the graph. As @PSUEngineer89 has noted, cancers, lung disease, and heart disease don't react that way.
Wrong. It does. Winter mortality and its causes

From the National Library of Medicine article, "Following the recent decline in influenza epidemics, approximately half of the excess winter deaths are due to coronary thrombosis. These peak about two days after the peak of a cold spell. Approximately half the remaining winter deaths are caused by respiratory disease, and these peak about 12 days after peak cold."

It goes on to explain further but this is from the abstract.

The graph is US mortality
 
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SLUPSU

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Wrong. It does. Winter mortality and its causes

From the National Library of Medicine article, "Following the recent decline in influenza epidemics, approximately half of the excess winter deaths are due to coronary thrombosis. These peak about two days after the peak of a cold spell. Approximately half the remaining winter deaths are caused by respiratory disease, and these peak about 12 days after peak cold."

It goes on to explain further but this is from the abstract.

I said "react," how would the rate of change be explained in the last three winters? Again, who decided to put those red markings for amplification on your graph, provide a link or it's meaningless.
 

Online Persona

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I said "react," how would the rate of change be explained in the last three winters? Again, who decided to put those red markings for amplification on your graph, provide a link or it's meaningless.
I explained that above in multiple posts on this page of the thread. I added the markings to better explain the portion of excess deaths that were actually due to covid to our resident engineer. The markings explain why summer excess death maxima are repeatedly only about half of winter excess death maxima during covid.

As previously noted, I'm a retired physics laboratory director for one of if not the most difficult universities to get into in the country. Analysis of data was a significant part of my duties. And your statement about heart and lung diseases not working as I described is completely in conflict with medical research and current theory as I linked above.
 
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PSUEngineer89

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I explained that above in multiple posts on this page of the thread. I added the markings to better explain the portion of excess deaths that were actually due to covid to our resident engineer. The markings explain why summer excess death maxima are repeatedly only about half of winter excess death maxima during covid.

As previously noted, I'm a retired physics laboratory director for one of if not the most difficult universities to get into in the country. Analysis of data was a significant part of my duties. And your statement about heart and lung diseases not working as I described is completely in conflict with medical research and current theory as I linked above.
Your theory cannot be disproved, but the simplest explanation is that it really is mostly Covid.

As Feynman says, “It is scientific to talk about more likely and less likely.“
 

SLUPSU

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I explained that above in multiple posts on this page of the thread. I added the markings to better explain the portion of excess deaths that were actually due to covid to our resident engineer. The markings explain why summer excess death maxima are repeatedly only about half of winter excess death maxima during covid.

As previously noted, I'm a retired physics laboratory director for one of if not the most difficult universities to get into in the country. Analysis of data was a significant part of my duties. And your statement about heart and lung diseases not working as I described is completely in conflict with medical research and current theory as I linked above.

Got it... it's just your opinion. Cancers would take time to react.... what are they reacting to the last three winters anyway??
 

Online Persona

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Your theory cannot be disproved, but the simplest explanation is that it really is mostly Covid.

As Feynman says, “It is scientific to talk about more likely and less likely.“
I strongly disagree. The simplest conclusion is that covid has approximately the same magnitude impact with each outbreak, not that for some reason it is repeatedly always twice as impactful every winter.

Further, for covid to have double the impact every winter such that all excess deaths are in fact caused by covid, 1) ALL other variables would need to be held constant AND 2) the normal oscillatory behavior of all cause deaths would have to remain perfectly unimpacted by shutdowns, no longer diagnosing as many as a million heart disease, cancer, and lung diseases AND 3) we have to assume 0 systematic error introduced by offering medical facilities tens of thousands and families ten thousand to code as covid and 0 to code all non-covid. If we are analyzing probability, all 3 of these conditions being met is highly improbable.
 
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