Vote for UFF as best BWI poster ever, PSU currently predicted at 95.3%

Unbiased_football_fan

Well-Known Member
Aug 18, 2006
63
553
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Frederick, MD
Who the hell is UFF? I am UFF. I have the highest likes to posts ratio in the history of message boards*. I have to say that Mr. Brooks gives me a run for my money for good reason. I don't know if in my getting longer lifetime I have seen a student-athlete better represent Penn State than his son.

I speak the math which is the truth. I know the math is like the diarrhea to some. You can argue with the math but ultimately it will kick you in the balls and humble you. I come bringing you the math. WrestleSim. What is that? It is a probabilistic model that simulates the NCAA wrestling tournament. It is highly accurate (law of large numbers and all that stuff). It is also fun! You can do scenario analysis such as what if Team A loses Wrestle B to injury beacuse he was driving like a bat out of hell trying to pass seven school buses full of nuns? What is the best way to allocate scholarship money? If Vegas puts out odds I can tell you where they are wrong. I think I would like to distribute WrestleSim to the masses. It is collecting dust. Maybe I need to get some master beta testers first. Are there any master beta's on this board?

I plugged in current Intermat rankings as seeds (yes this is very inexact, but close enough for government work) and fired it up. The lights dimmed in Maryland for a few minutes. Intermat rankings are some of the best IMHO, no arbitrary nonsense going on like the service that hasn't learned to stream an event effectively after 717 tries. Wrestlestat is a vast source of information and I congratulate Greg for what he has put together but the rankings to quote Kevin McCallister "Woof!" There is clearly not enough recency accounted for in their rankings. Interestingly, in Wrestlestat you can do things like have Spencer Lee face Gable Steveson. Spencer is predicted to win a 7-4 decision by Wrestlestat. I would think the 130 lbs weight difference may play a bigger role. Sorry for digressing. If you want to win your bets with your friends (or enemies) use the quality matches data from Wrestlestat. That is the best predictor of how a wrestler will do at NCAA's.

Here is where our Nittany Lions are at as of now (Prob % first, second, third followed by expected points and # AA's):

PSU 95.3, 4.3, 0.3, 127, 7
Iowa 4.7, 63.3, 22.0, 93, 6
Mich 0.3, 25.3, 44.0, 81, 5
ASU 0, 8.0, 28.7, 73, 5
OhSt 0, 0, 4.3, 54, 4
Everybody else pretty much 0, 0, 0. NCSt and ISU have small chances at third. At the current moment our Lions look to be in very good shape. I can update after Big Tens but it is unlikely that the conference tourneys change things significantly.

You read my post, now I want to hear from you. What wrestlers are the most fun to watch? I can't stand to watch the 2-1, 3-2 ride out "victories". I want to know where to focus my mult-screen viewing during the NCAA's. We need someone to compile those wrestlers that have the highest ratio of riding time minutes to near fall points and those wrestlers need to be excommunicated (not really, just making a point here). Their coaches need to be fired (okay this would be more reasonable). Who doesn't love feet to back????? We need some way to incentivize risk taking for the good of the sport. I like Andonian and Hamiti. Give me more names to put on my watch list, thanks!

UFF

* Could be misinformation
 

82bordeaux

Well-Known Member
Nov 19, 2019
4,702
15,225
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eriespecialty.com
I'm cool with you being in the computer modeling. Just steer clear of the GIF business.
giphy.gif
 

dmm53

Well-Known Member
Feb 4, 2017
3,227
5,356
1
In my view, Osama bin Laden was the first celebrity of the twenty-first century and postmodern era. His fame grew in proportion to the extent to which no one could find him. He was off-the-map, cloud-hidden, a known but clandestine figure. The most technologically-advanced society in human history could not locate a bearded man hiding out in mountain caves. It became an elaborate game of hide-and-seek.

My advice: make one final, grandiose, and incendiary post and then vanish. Your fame or infamy and hence "popularity" will wax in turn. Legends and myths will sprout around your name. Your descendants will come to fear you as their silent but frightening ancestor. You may become the Keyser Söze (Un-usual Suspect) of this Board.

Disappearing is the greatest trick of the Devil.
Hide and Go Seek and Letting Go — Oak Hill Church
 

dbldoofus

Well-Known Member
Jan 18, 2017
1,368
2,488
1
PA D1
www.ismycomputeronfire.com
In my view, Osama bin Laden was the first celebrity of the twenty-first century and postmodern era. His fame grew in proportion to the extent to which no one could find him. He was off-the-map, cloud-hidden, a known but clandestine figure. The most technologically-advanced society in human history could not locate a bearded man hiding out in mountain caves. It became an elaborate game of hide-and-seek.

My advice: make one final, grandiose, and incendiary post and then vanish. Your fame or infamy and hence "popularity" will wax in turn. Legends and myths will sprout around your name. Your descendants will come to fear you as their silent but frightening ancestor. You may become the Keyser Söze (Un-usual Suspect) of this Board.

Disappearing is the greatest trick of the Devil.
Hide and Go Seek and Letting Go — Oak Hill Church
"cloud-hidden" Alan Watts or Van Morrison's Alan Watts Blues?
 

dmm53

Well-Known Member
Feb 4, 2017
3,227
5,356
1
"cloud-hidden" Alan Watts or Van Morrison's Alan Watts Blues?
Yes, Alan Watts does use the phrase "cloud-hidden" and he likes the game of hide-and-seek, of the universe playing with itself, manifesting and changing forms. Or लीला (Lila), as it is called in Sanskrit.

 
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