Voters break toward Republican candidates in big swing from September: Poll

Sullivan

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Voters break toward Republican candidates in big swing from September: Poll​


More likely voters say they plan to vote for a Republican than a Democrat in the midterm elections, according to a poll Monday that shows persistent concerns about the economy and inflation are bolstering the GOP in the last weeks of the campaign.

The New York Times/Siena College poll found that 49% of likely voters will back a GOP candidate for Congress on Nov. 8, compared to 45% who will vote for a Democrat. It is a flip from September, when Democrats held a 1-point edge.

With inflation stubbornly high and Wall Street stocks tumbling, 44% of voters cited the economy as the most pressing issue, up from 36% in July and by far the most commonly cited issue. Voters most concerned about the economy favored GOP candidates by a 2-to-1 margin.

Independents broke for Republicans by 10 points compared to a 3-point edge for Democrats in September. The most striking finding was that women who identified as independents favored Republicans by 18 points, a massive swing from a 14-point edge for Democrats in September as liberal candidates focused on abortion access.

The GOP is eager to retake the House majority they lost in the 2018 midterm elections. They only need to net five seats to win back the chamber, while the evenly divided Senate remains a toss-up heading into the final sprint to Election Day.

 

Sullivan

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Female Democrat voters tell NY Times they're shifting to GOP over economic concerns: 'It's all about cost'​


Economic concerns and "intense" disapproval of President Biden are giving Republicans an edge with independent voters in the upcoming election, according to recent polling from The New York Times.

A NYT/Siena College poll found independent female voters in particular swung dramatically to the right in the past month, despite Democrats' focus on abortion rights.

"In September, they favored Democrats by 14 points. Now, independent women backed Republicans by 18 points— a striking swing given the polarization of the American electorate and how intensely Democrats have focused on that group and on the threat Republicans pose to abortion rights," the paper reported.

The Times noted that was because the economy was "a far more potent political issue in 2022 than abortion," and a majority of voters trusted Republicans to handle it.

Reinforcing this point, the Times talked to Democrat women who were voting Republican this fall. Mortgage loan officer Robin Ackerman, 37, said she was switching because she felt the GOP was "more geared towards business."

Despite strongly disagreeing with the Supreme Court's Dobbs ruling that overturned Roe v. Wade, she said it wasn't going to influence her vote.

"But that doesn’t really have a lot to do with my decision… I’m more worried about other things," she told the outlet.

Another Democrat, Gerard Lamoureux, is also looking to the GOP to solve her concerns about rising prices.

"It’s all about cost," the 51-year-old Democratic retiree in Newtown, Conn., told the paper. She added, "The price of gas and groceries are through the roof. And I want to eat healthy, but it’s cheaper for me to go to McDonald’s and get a little meal than it is to cook dinner."

President Biden's strong disapproval ratings are also having an impact on Democrats' chances, driving voters to Republican candidates.


"Democrats are approaching this one [midterm election] saddled with a president who has a disapproval rating of 58 percent, including 63 percent of independent voters…The added challenge for Democrats is the intensity of the electorate’s displeasure with the president: The poll showed that 45 percent of likely voters strongly disapproved of the job that Mr. Biden was doing, and 90 percent of those voters planned to back a Republican for Congress this fall," the analysis found.

While Democrats have tried to make abortion the focus this election, inflation ranks the number one concern for 59% of voters, according to a Fox News poll conducted in September.

Other polls indicate more Americans trust the GOP to handle economic issues better than Democrats.

 

ao5884

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You need to know their history and watch changes. Some are useless due to oversampling and using registered voters, not likely voters.
Normally I would agree. I think 2016 and especially 2020 changed the game a bit as people don't want to show support for Republicans out of fear of retaliation until the voting booth. Of course that means even better things for Republicans. Democrats have very little to run on.
 

Aardvark86

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This is an interesting poll, given its battleground focus and that Siena is a credible organization.

This ought to be a very interesting week or two of polling. To date, the numbers in most states are fairly well baked, with relatively modest numbers of undecideds who will start making up their mind one way or another. As Bourbon notes above, very important to consider the polling source as there will be a lot of push-polls on both sides since some late-deciders will try to "guess the winning team" and act accordingly, since everybody likes to be a winner.

Over the last week or two, there has also been a modest shift noticeable in the 538 probabilities. While D's still hold a pretty good possibility of retaining the senate, R's have made up a couple of points (now 35:65) but I suspect that gap will be hard to close. In the house, there's been a shift to R's of about 4-5 points (currently 72:28)
 

Aardvark86

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Normally I would agree. I think 2016 and especially 2020 changed the game a bit as people don't want to show support for Republicans out of fear of retaliation until the voting booth. Of course that means even better things for Republicans. Democrats have very little to run on.
Interestingly, RCP has sought to address this by making their own adjustments to the pollster averages in light of past differentials between actual/predicted. That strikes me as an exercise fraught with both peril and the potential for bias, but Sean Trende at RCP is actually a pretty smart guy at this stuff.
 

bourbon n blues

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Normally I would agree. I think 2016 and especially 2020 changed the game a bit as people don't want to show support for Republicans out of fear of retaliation until the voting booth. Of course that means even better things for Republicans. Democrats have very little to run on.
All true, and that’s what I’m getting at. Polls are fine but a historically bad economy ( some weren’t here for Carter) and rising crime strike home.
 
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Aardvark86

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All true, and that’s what I’m getting at. Polls are fine but a historically bad economy ( some weren’t here for Carter) and rising crime strike home.
You know, it's pretty eerie how the sense of 70's depression captured in the opening credits of Miracle rings uncomfortably too familiar right about now...

 

psu skp

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50 yard line after dark
I don't think this is just people moving towards the GOP, I think the "pollsters" have largely been trying to hurt the GOP with "decent numbers" for the DNC, but as we get closer to D-Day, they realize they'd better more accurately reflect reality lest they lose more of what limited credibility their profession still might have.
 

Hotshoe

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These are people that have had enough of the radical Democrat Party nonsense. They vote on the economy. They don't buy all the gender and pronoun bullsh&t. They don't like enforcing the IRS. They absolutely hate the crisis at the border and the fentanyl pandemic.

Furthermore, they know, the lockdowns and how it affected their children ridiculous. The only thing they have is abortion and feelings. Add in a massive rise in crime, and they've had enough.

Add in the embarrassment that is Afghanistan, and the energy crisis, what do they have to run on? Abortion? Lmao.
 

Hotshoe

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This is a president that is literally, looking to buy, dirty heavy crude from Venezuela. A corrupt dictatorship. Looking to buy oil from Iran while seeking an agreement on the number one state sponsor of terrorism with zero female rights. This president and his party are a complete joke.

I barely mentioned inflation. It's the economy, stupid.
 

PSUEngineer89

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Voters break toward Republican candidates in big swing from September: Poll​


More likely voters say they plan to vote for a Republican than a Democrat in the midterm elections, according to a poll Monday that shows persistent concerns about the economy and inflation are bolstering the GOP in the last weeks of the campaign.

The New York Times/Siena College poll found that 49% of likely voters will back a GOP candidate for Congress on Nov. 8, compared to 45% who will vote for a Democrat. It is a flip from September, when Democrats held a 1-point edge.

With inflation stubbornly high and Wall Street stocks tumbling, 44% of voters cited the economy as the most pressing issue, up from 36% in July and by far the most commonly cited issue. Voters most concerned about the economy favored GOP candidates by a 2-to-1 margin.

Independents broke for Republicans by 10 points compared to a 3-point edge for Democrats in September. The most striking finding was that women who identified as independents favored Republicans by 18 points, a massive swing from a 14-point edge for Democrats in September as liberal candidates focused on abortion access.

The GOP is eager to retake the House majority they lost in the 2018 midterm elections. They only need to net five seats to win back the chamber, while the evenly divided Senate remains a toss-up heading into the final sprint to Election Day.


There has been no change from Sept to Oct.

But now the scum at NYT know they can no longer lie with their “push polling”

All polls will now start to match Trafalgar and Rasmussen.
 

ao5884

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Interestingly, RCP has sought to address this by making their own adjustments to the pollster averages in light of past differentials between actual/predicted. That strikes me as an exercise fraught with both peril and the potential for bias, but Sean Trende at RCP is actually a pretty smart guy at this stuff.
Exactly i don't want to day it's impossible. But how do you measure an unknown with no way to measure that unknown within the population. It's basically a percentage of a subset however that subset is those that elect to not answer the question or even worse lie to protect them selves until election day.
 

psuted

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I won’t be foolish enough to predict any outcome in the upcoming midterms, but my strong sense is that Democrats are not in a very good position in most areas of this country and they’re in for some big surprises in the midterms.
 

ao5884

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I won’t be foolish enough to predict any outcome in the upcoming midterms, but my strong sense is that Democrats are not in a very good position in most areas of this country and they’re in for some big surprises in the midterms.
Actually they are in the senate they should be way ahead but the are not because their candidates are just awful Warnock and fetterman for example
 
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Aardvark86

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So per my prior post #7, interestingly enough, the 538 probabilities continue to shift. In just the last day, they've wobbled their way now to R37:63 in the Senate and R73:27 in the house.
 

PSUEngineer89

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So per my prior post #7, interestingly enough, the 538 probabilities continue to shift. In just the last day, they've wobbled their way now to R37:63 in the Senate and R73:27 in the house.
“I’m sorry Madam Pelosi, but we have our polling reputations to protect”
 

ChiTownLion

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Jen Psaki just doesn't understand


laughing-haha.gif
 
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bdgan

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This survey must be fake. Abortion not one of the top two issues and the woke left's favorite talking point are at the bottom

The abortion issue frustrates me. More than half of all abortions are black women and 40% of abortions are second timers. WTF is wrong with these women? Birth control pills are readily available.

Furthermore, most women live in a state where abortions are widely available. Dems are lying to the majority of women by saying republicans will take away their ability to get an abortion and the lemmings believe them.
 
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bourbon n blues

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Don’t you get that crowd? Many of us are middle to upper class, but these folk aren’t. They’re not smart , they’re irresponsible, and they have poor impulse control.
That’s being kind.
 
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bourbon n blues

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Personally, I’m ok with psaki’s shock on this one. Not a healthy statistic.
Yep, there are two angles , the first is these idiots really F ed things up. The second is how bad they F ed things up.
Which imo gives credence to the election interference angle.
My cabinet pick brother in law believes they cheated with the mail in ballots in swing states . He probably has worked at a higher level in government and industry than anyone here and as as good of an academic record .
I’d say he’s done more than Psaki overall in government ( #2 spot in a cabinet ). It’s not crazy to believe they cheated.
 
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Aardvark86

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I don’t really question that they cheated but rather that it was material to the outcome
 

psuted

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I don't think this is just people moving towards the GOP, I think the "pollsters" have largely been trying to hurt the GOP with "decent numbers" for the DNC, but as we get closer to D-Day, they realize they'd better more accurately reflect reality lest they lose more of what limited credibility their profession still might have.
That’s exactly what I think as well.
 
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bourbon n blues

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I don’t really question that they cheated but rather that it was material to the outcome
It was , they straight up manufactured votes. There were over a million votes in Pa. that normally would be disallowed . My buddy working for Amistad found an abandoned, foreclosed property with over fifty voter registered to the property. It was a shed.
With all the safeguards removed in certain swing states they stole an election. They did it how they normally do, using the mail in ballot. Before it required effort to get to shut ins or nursing home residents.
And they did gain app. 100-200 votes in my town with that method. Removing the safeguards allows people to fill out thousands of ballots in a few hours. State wide who knows how much.
Barr prevented them from interviewing the trucker who claimed to have trucked in ballots from NY.
All it took was a few weekends and volunteers to swing an election .
 
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