Warren says Big Ten will go to 20...

[africamurphy]

Brett McMurphy tweets...

This following the specific language in the Big Ten's new media deal about adding more schools....smoke smoke smoke...probably fire coming...

The ACC is locked down with their Grant of Rights through 2036, so it sure seems like the Pac-12 Pacific Four would be the candidates. Oregon/Washington/Cal/Stanford (unless ND wants in...then bye-bye Cal-Berkley).

I'm thinking a 1-2-6 scheduling model would be best for such a large conference. (They could go to 10 games in conference easily...but the big schools would need extra compensation to give up home game revenue against a cream puff...)

1--1 protected rival each season.
2--4 schools that you play twice in four years (home and away).
6--schools drawn from pool of remaining 14 teams, singly scheduled (ala NFL scheduling) but spread out over many years to include home-away rotation (*the only reason for home-away is for non-con scheduling...where you agree to give the other team a marquee home game in exchange for one)

MSU would be our protected rival, for better or worse. (Would you rather have Maryland or Rutgers?)

Sample PSU schedule

Year 1

at MSU

OSU
at Maryland

USC
at Oregon
Illinois
at Iowa
Purdue
at Minnesota


Year 2

MSU

at OSU
Maryland

at UCLA
Stanford
at Wisconsin
Nebraska
at Indiana
Northwestern


Year 3

at MSU

Michigan
at Rutgers

Washington
at Cal
Iowa
At Illinois
Minnesota
At USC


Year 4

MSU

at Michigan
Rutgers

At Stanford
Oregon
At Nebraska
Wisconsin
At Purdue
Indiana


Year 5

at MSU

OSU
at Maryland

UCLA
at Washington
Cal
At Northwestern
*Illinois
*at Minnesota


(*team played 3 times over 5 years…all other non-protected teams played 2 times.)

 

[john4psu]

Saw this posted online social media in a Penn State group:

So last night on my late local news, Sports Reporter Bernie Smilovitz of WDIV Local 4 Detroit, reported that Stanford, Cal, Washington, and Oregon are close to joining USC and UCLA and becoming members of the BIG Conference! That would take us to 20 teams!

 

[bison13]

Saw this posted online social media in a Penn State group:

So last night on my late local news, Sports Reporter Bernie Smilovitz of WDIV Local 4 Detroit, reported that Stanford, Cal, Washington, and Oregon are close to joining USC and UCLA and becoming members of the BIG Conference! That would take us to 20 teams!

Interesting. I wonder how Washington state and Oregon State feel about that

 

[LandoComando]

Interesting. I wonder how Washington state and Oregon State feel about that

They can easily go to the MWC or Big XII with Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado. Those 6 were always going to be left out. The Arizona schools should be the most frustrated.

 

[LandoComando]

For the record--I love the scheduling format but was hoping for 10 conference games

 

[NedFromYork]

I think Colorado is a definite down the road. Probably Utah, and Arizona. Going to 28 easy, OVER TIME.

 

[Wallace Breen]

I think Colorado is a definite down the road. Probably Utah, and Arizona. Going to 28 easy, OVER TIME.

Agreed. The end game is coming into focus. Don't be surprised if there is language in the contract that allows for a limited renegotiation. Think, a certain school in Austin. What is more attractive to Texas, a Big Ten where they would play a southwestish schedule with Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State, USC, UCLA regularly and occasionally play Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State and Notre Dame or a geographically isolated SEC featuring schools nobody outside of the southeast actually cares about while pulling in a lot less money? It is pretty obvious where this is going. It might take ten years to pull it off but this isn't about D1 football breaking from from the NCAA, this is about the Big Ten breaking away away and taking all the schools that actually care about academics with it.

 

[sdwcpa]

There are rumblings coming from the left coast that the CA Board Of Regents are saying that UCLA is going nowhere unless Cal is part of the package that goes with them.

 

[Ian]

Saw this posted online social media in a Penn State group:

So last night on my late local news, Sports Reporter Bernie Smilovitz of WDIV Local 4 Detroit, reported that Stanford, Cal, Washington, and Oregon are close to joining USC and UCLA and becoming members of the BIG Conference! That would take us to 20 teams!

They have to add west coast teams. And those four fit the profile as AAU schools. The other three out west are Utah, Az, and Colorado but they see more likely headed to the Big 12 conference. There are still more to be had especially from the ACC but that can wait. An East/West setup will follow. The six PAC 12 teams, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Wisconsin make up the “west”.

 

[RickinDayton]

There are rumblings coming from the left coast that the CA Board Of Regents are saying that UCLA is going nowhere unless Cal is part of the package that goes with them.

I believe the B1G Commisioner and President's are probably in negotiations now regarding that situation. Most "insiders" seem to think B1G is going to twenty and will add Stanford, UW, Oregon, and Cal making a great 6 team pod out west along with SoCal and UCLA to ease travel concerns for all.

 

[LMTLION]

Saw this posted online social media in a Penn State group:

So last night on my late local news, Sports Reporter Bernie Smilovitz of WDIV Local 4 Detroit, reported that Stanford, Cal, Washington, and Oregon are close to joining USC and UCLA and becoming members of the BIG Conference! That would take us to 20 teams!

I love those additions. For football it gives the conference such a wide variety of styles of football.

 

[LandoComando]

I think Colorado is a definite down the road. Probably Utah, and Arizona. Going to 28 easy, OVER TIME.

So everyone's finally accepting that this isn't over and 24-28-32 is the end game?

 

[lazydave841]

So everyone's finally accepting that this isn't over and 24-28-32 is the end game?

Money is the end game. Warren will add Jacksonville St if the networks say they are worth it.

 

[doctornick]

So everyone's finally accepting that this isn't over and 24-28-32 is the end game?

Many of us are sitting here laughing our butts off. Cal is NOT being invited along with UCLA. and the Big Ten isn’t expanding in the near future, not unless ND is making a deal that isn’t public yet. If they were going to invite two of Washington/Oregon/Stanford they’d have done it already.

We’ll see what happens ~2030 when the ACC teams are closer to the end of their GOR and buyouts become less. Right around the the time when the Big Ten will be working on a new TV deal…

 

[LandoComando]

Many of us are sitting here laughing our butts off. Cal is NOT being invited along with UCLA. and the Big Ten isn’t expanding in the near future, not unless ND is making a deal that isn’t public yet. If they were going to invite two of Washington/Oregon/Stanford they’d have done it already.

We’ll see what happens ~2030 when the ACC teams are closer to the end of their GOR and buyouts become less. Right around the the time when the Big Ten will be working on a new TV deal…

So, you still refuse to comprehend why the Big Ten is going to expand? Gotcha. I know it's tough for you to admit you're wrong.

 

[LMTLION]

So everyone's finally accepting that this isn't over and 24-28-32 is the end game?

I think 24 is the end game with VA, NC and perhaps one or two other ACC schools in the mix. But the timing depends on attorneys working behind the scenes to find a way out of the ACC GOR.

 

[LandoComando]

I think 24 is the end game with VA, NC and perhaps one or two other ACC schools in the mix. But the timing depends on attorneys working behind the scenes to find a way out of the ACC GOR.

Which makes sense. There's just no logic in those that believe we've hit the end game.

 

[Waste Management Consultant]

If they go to 20, I bet there would be some consideration of having the original Big 10 as one division and New Big 10 as the other. They can preserve most existing and old rivalries that way. Add whatever rotating cross division scheduling needed. Probably works best anyway for most involved.

 

[Wallace Breen]

If they go to 20, I bet there would be some consideration of having the original Big 10 as one division and New Big 10 as the other. They can preserve most existing and old rivalries that way. Add whatever rotating cross division scheduling needed. Probably works best anyway for most involved.

Or, the end game is 36 or 40 completely replacing the NCAA. Eight game slate based on the structure below with two cross over games a year and two games to help keep the lower conferences alive. Four team playoff with the Rose Bowl as the National Championship. And yes, if something like this were to happen, many SEC teams would be looking to jump ship to a larger model in a hear beat as they know the money dies if they can't play out of conference games against non-scrubs. Not saying that this will happen but the rumors of something bigger than 20 are very much there and come from legit sources.

Big Ten = Michigan, Ohio State, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa

East Coast = Penn State, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Maryland, Rutgers, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Great Plains = Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, Colorado, Missouri, Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma State and Colorado State

Pacific Coast = USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Arizona, Washington, Arizona State and Washington State.

 

[RickinDayton]

Or, the end game is 36 or 40 completely replacing the NCAA. Eight game slate based on the structure below with two cross over games a year and two games to help keep the lower conferences alive. Four team playoff with the Rose Bowl as the National Championship. And yes, if something like this were to happen, many SEC teams would be looking to jump ship to a larger model in a hear beat as they know the money dies if they can't play out of conference games against non-scrubs. Not saying that this will happen but the rumors of something bigger than 20 are very much there and come from legit sources.

Big Ten = Michigan, Ohio State, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa

East Coast = Penn State, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Maryland, Rutgers, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Great Plains = Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, Colorado, Missouri, Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma State and Colorado State

Pacific Coast = USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Arizona, Washington, Arizona State and Washington State.

Don't you think Utah would be welcome in that large a conference instead of Washington State?

 

[LafayetteBear]

There are rumblings coming from the left coast that the CA Board Of Regents are saying that UCLA is going nowhere unless Cal is part of the package that goes with them.

Where are you reading reports of these "rumblings?" Unless it is coming from Jon Wilner, who seems far more plugged in than any other reporter, I consider them suspect. It has been my suspicion all along that the Board of Regents will put the clamp on UCLA's conference move, , and I hope it means that neither Cal nor UCLA leaves the Pac.

I think these ginormous coast to coast conferences are going to be a colossal failure notwithstanding the TV money. The TV networks already have FAR too much power over CFB as it is. It will destroy traditional rivalries, natural geographical conference affiliations, and likely create a bifurcation of BCS teams into "haves" and "have-nots." Not that the playing table has ever been fully equal, but it will now be completely turned over by developments like this and the NIL and free player transferability rules. I have always loved college football, but when it becomes fully professional and schools are openly buying players, I will likely focus my interest on the NFL, where the top professionals play and the hypocrisy is a bit less obvious.

 

[Wallace Breen]

Don't you think Utah would be welcome in that large a conference instead of Washington State?

A lot of assumptions. Utah vs. Washington State is a trade off. I hear things but don't take everything as plausible. I have heard some rumors from folks at the NCAA (yes I know people in Indy). I have heard things from staff at UVA. Same for PSU. I am trying to assemble the pieces into a coherent story. Regardless, everything I am hearing strongly suggest they are thinking way bigger than 20 and general logic suggests 20 doesn't make sense logically given who the likely 4 are.

 

[Wallace Breen]

Where are you reading reports of these "rumblings?" Unless it is coming from Jon Wilner, who seems far more plugged in than any other reporter, I consider them suspect. It has been my suspicion all along that the Board of Regents will put the clamp on UCLA's conference move, , and I hope it means that neither Cal nor UCLA leaves the Pac.

I think these ginormous coast to coast conferences are going to be a colossal failure notwithstanding the TV money. The TV networks already have FAR too much power over CFB as it is. It will destroy traditional rivalries, natural geographical conference affiliations, and likely create a bifurcation of BCS teams into "haves" and "have-nots." Not that the playing table has ever been fully equal, but it will now be completely turned over by developments like this and the NIL and free player transferability rules. I have always loved college football, but when it becomes fully professional and schools are openly buying players, I will likely focus my interest on the NFL, where the top professionals play amd the hypocrisy is a bit less obvious.

If you think about it in a different light (Big Ten's moves are to head off a fully professional college football) and forget about the money (which could be used as an incentive), the logic leads to a small number of scenarios.

 

[IANit]

Or, the end game is 36 or 40 completely replacing the NCAA. Eight game slate based on the structure below with two cross over games a year and two games to help keep the lower conferences alive. Four team playoff with the Rose Bowl as the National Championship. And yes, if something like this were to happen, many SEC teams would be looking to jump ship to a larger model in a hear beat as they know the money dies if they can't play out of conference games against non-scrubs. Not saying that this will happen but the rumors of something bigger than 20 are very much there and come from legit sources.

Big Ten = Michigan, Ohio State, Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa

East Coast = Penn State, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Maryland, Rutgers, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Great Plains = Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, Colorado, Missouri, Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma State and Colorado State

Pacific Coast = USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Arizona, Washington, Arizona State and Washington State.

I don't know that I like that grouping for PSU. It's too top-heavy with PSU and Notre Dame, which is about to take a bit of a tumble IMO. Maybe if Va. Tech returns to Frank Beamer levels. If you're going to have an East Coast conference that moves the needle I'd want to see Miami, Florida State (assuming they will bounce back eventually), Clemson, and even Pitt.

 

[RickinDayton]

Where are you reading reports of these "rumblings?" Unless it is coming from Jon Wilner, who seems far more plugged in than any other reporter, I consider them suspect. It has been my suspicion all along that the Board of Regents will put the clamp on UCLA's conference move, , and I hope it means that neither Cal nor UCLA leaves the Pac.

I think these ginormous coast to coast conferences are going to be a colossal failure notwithstanding the TV money. The TV networks already have FAR too much power over CFB as it is. It will destroy traditional rivalries, natural geographical conference affiliations, and likely create a bifurcation of BCS teams into "haves" and "have-nots." Not that the playing table has ever been fully equal, but it will now be completely turned over by developments like this and the NIL and free player transferability rules. I have always loved college football, but when it becomes fully professional and schools are openly buying players, I will likely focus my interest on the NFL, where the top professionals play amd the hypocrisy is a bit less obvious.

Unfortunately, the train is traveling down the track very fast, we can't stop it, but as you infer, it may derail itself as fans lament the loss of traditional rivals, NIL, and a lack of loyalty to schools on the part of players. I guess old heads like us are being passed by.

 

[Delcolion915]

If they go to 20, I bet there would be some consideration of having the original Big 10 as one division and New Big 10 as the other. They can preserve most existing and old rivalries that way. Add whatever rotating cross division scheduling needed. Probably works best anyway for most involved.

Actually this would be In penn states best interests

 

[Ian]

20, 28, 30, 36, 40, etc.... AAU members plus ND.

 

[LandoComando]

20, 28, 30, 36, 40, etc.... AAU members plus ND.

I don't think they'll limit it to AAU. I don't see ruling out Miami, Florida or Virginia Tech in particular aside from Notre Dame. Why take Kansas, Iowa State, Pitt or Colorado when there's better options?

 

[JayWye]

I don't think they'll limit it to AAU. I don't see ruling out Miami, Florida or Virginia Tech in particular aside from Notre Dame. Why take Kansas, Iowa State, Pitt or Colorado when there's better options?

Florida isn't leaving the SEC, Miami and VaTech have prohibitive ACC buyouts, and none of the others are even being considered per current chatter.

 

[LandoComando]

Florida isn't leaving the SEC, Miami and VaTech have prohibitive ACC buyouts, and none of the others are even being considered per current chatter.

Sorry I meant Florida State--forgot the state. The ACC will get involved in this eventually if not soon. Buyouts don't mean all that much

 

[AvgUser]

I don't think they'll limit it to AAU. I don't see ruling out Miami, Florida or Virginia Tech in particular aside from Notre Dame. Why take Kansas, Iowa State, Pitt or Colorado when there's better options?

Just choosing this post to ask the question. Why the heck does AAU even matter. Seems like apples-oranges to me (football vs academics). Let’s not kid ourselves.

 

[LandoComando]

Just choosing this post to ask the question. Why the heck does AAU even matter. Seems like apples-oranges to me (football vs academics). Let’s not kid ourselves.

We're on the same page. Years ago it did. Not so much now.

 

[ryoder1]

A lot of assumptions. Utah vs. Washington State is a trade off. I hear things but don't take everything as plausible. I have heard some rumors from folks at the NCAA (yes I know people in Indy). I have heard things from staff at UVA. Same for PSU. I am trying to assemble the pieces into a coherent story. Regardless, everything I am hearing strongly suggest they are thinking way bigger than 20 and general logic suggests 20 doesn't make sense logically given who the likely 4 are.

The SEC is not just rolling over and letting the B10 do whatever it wants.
Their commissioner is too smart and aggressive to let that happen. Also the B10 school presidents aren't approving marginal academic schools for admittance.

Oregon, Wash. Cal and Stanford make sense. Not sure there will be any others out west. Now the question is how do you poach the ACC with the albatross Grant of Rights? Duke. UNC, UVA and Va Tech are the targets in my opinion.

 

[Wallace Breen]

The SEC is not just rolling over and letting the B10 do whatever it wants.
Their commissioner is too smart and aggressive to let that happen. Also the B10 school presidents aren't approving marginal academic schools for admittance.

Oregon, Wash. Cal and Stanford make sense. Not sure there will be any others out west. Now the question is how do you poach the ACC with the albatross Grant of Rights? Duke. UNC, UVA and Va Tech are the targets in my opinion.

Most think the ACC grant of rights is on a pretty weak foundation, especially for certain schools, namely the Virginia schools whose legislature never approved such a potentially expensive decision. UNC and NC State are likely as well. The states have pretty tight control. The biggest question will be if a lawsuit would only apply to those schools or would it undo the entire agreement.

 

[Delco Lion]

Warren also said on Friday that the Big Ten will be putting a plan together to pay players.

 

[NewEra 2014]

It will be interesting to see how this plays out with regard to markets vs actual athletic programs. For example, the administrations at CU and at Cal don’t appear to be highly supportive of athletics today, and/or are being poorly managed. Both would have been very good candidates for expansion at different times in the past. But I don’t know if either program can get out of its own way any longer, regardless of how much money the BIG would provide.

 

[doctornick]

Just choosing this post to ask the question. Why the heck does AAU even matter. Seems like apples-oranges to me (football vs academics). Let’s not kid ourselves.

Ultimately, the Presidents of the universities are the ones that are approving expansion and for them academics probably does matter a good bit. IMHO more along the lines of "do I want to be associated and compared to this university" than an absolute cutoff line. Personally, I don't think the Big Ten would explicitly exclude considering a school because they are not AAU - obviously, they are willing to take Notre Dame despite that - but would probably not consider a school if academics are considered too subpar to be a "peer". So, a school like FSU or Miami(FL) could probably still be acceptable to the Big Ten despite lack of AAU status, but I don't think a school like WVU would ever be acceptable.

I don't have any doubt though that high quality academics is certainly a plus to get a school considered. The Big Ten presidents would love to have their institutions closely associated with Stanford for example if all the other aspects work out. Not to say that academics is a motivating factor, but just that it can be a "trump card" or icing on the cake for a candidacy.

 

[doctornick]

Most think the ACC grant of rights is on a pretty weak foundation, especially for certain schools, namely the Virginia schools whose legislature never approved such a potentially expensive decision. UNC and NC State are likely as well. The states have pretty tight control. The biggest question will be if a lawsuit would only apply to those schools or would it undo the entire agreement.

Literally nobody actually thinks that. There's been zero indication that a GOR is able to be broken and every single school that has been party to one has chosen to let it expire rather than fight it to join a new conference early (that's why Texas and Oklahoma are not joining the SEC until 2025). And the reality is that no school is going to have the guts to to try to fight a GOR in court given the massive legal expanse to fight on top of the fact that said school could easily lose and be worse off.

IMHO there's a good reason that the Big Ten TV deal ends 2030 which is right around the time when ACC school might be willing to talk about joining a new conference when the GOR ends in 2036. I could see a school potentially negotiating a lesser buyout of the GOR to leave maybe a year or two early as the financials would make more sense for a compromise - just like Maryland was able to negotiate a smaller exit fee to leave he ACC.

 

[OaktonDave]

Most think the ACC grant of rights is on a pretty weak foundation, especially for certain schools, namely the Virginia schools whose legislature never approved such a potentially expensive decision. UNC and NC State are likely as well. The states have pretty tight control. The biggest question will be if a lawsuit would only apply to those schools or would it undo the entire agreement.

If that were the case, wouldn't the schools face significant legal exposure having entered into an agreement they couldn't legally enter? The concept you're suggesting is that the schools could go to court and claim they should be released from the agreement based on the fact that they didn't have the authorization from their legislature to enter into the agreement. This would be despite the fact they represented that they had such authority and accepted substantial benefits as a result entering said agreement. The ACC couldn't then sue the schools to recover every dime they were paid by the conference from through deals for things like football and basketball media rights because, after all, the whole issue was just a woopsie/misunderstanding. I'm thinking not.

If the state of Virginia goes to court claiming the schools acted without needed authorization, why wouldn't the courts deem it an issue between the state and the schools? Why didn't the state, who "has pretty tight control" exercise that control at the time the schools were acting beyond their authority? The current GOR was signed in 2013 and was well publicized. If there was an issue, why didn't the state address it with the UVA and VT leadership and inform the ACC of the problem? Why would any court rule that the schools and the state should be freed from the agreement without massive compensation to the ACC when there is no indication that the conference failed to act in good faith and more than ample proof that the schools and state government did anything but?

 

[Wallace Breen]

I think I see where you are going but the biggest question to me beyond the two I posed is who has standing to sue. Regardless, I think it is pretty clear the legislature is the only party with the ability to agree on behalf of the VA schools and they didn't. The PA legislature would likely have a claim as well as NC. Like it said, the foundation is pretty weak. The question becomes, who has standing.