I think they just might have been. I've compiled data in order to display how the various wrestlers for Penn State, during the last 5 nationals, have performed relative to the seed appointed to them by the NCAA. This may be an odd metric given some of the controversy regarding seeding in past years (especially last year), but I feel it is a fairly accurate measurement of how wrestlers performed relative to objective expectations.
The biggest things last year's team had going against them was the graduation of Taylor and Ruth, as well as the red-shirt of Nico and Zain. When the tournament was finished and Penn State had claimed 6th Place (after a disappointing finish of 5th at B10's by .5 points) not only couldn't I help but feel as if the team had vastly exceeded expectations, but I wondered if, had Taylor and Ruth wrestled, how Penn State would have done.
Here are the finishes of Penn State wrestlers at Nationals from 2011-2015. The numbers to the right of their name indicate (Seed)/(Finish). Directly below that is information regarding the number of All Americans and the number of wrestlers who met, surpassed and performed below seed, respectively, as well as the number of points scored by the team that year. (For purposes of seeds higher than 8 and I have considered R12 finishes as on par with being seeded 9-12. I have also determined that wrestler who does not place and was seeded 13 or above should be marked as having met their seed.
2011:
125: Pataky 21/DNP
133: Long 3/3
141: A. Alton 6/R12
149: Molinaro 2/2
157: Taylor 3/2
174: Ruth 2/3
184: Wright 9/1
285: Wade 9/R12
2011:
5 AA
4 Met Seed
2 Surpass Seed
2 Below Seed
Points scored: 107.5
2012:
125: Nico 10/2
133: Martellotti 32/DNP
149: Molinaro 1/1
157: D. Alton 7/3
165: Taylor 1/1
174: Ruth 1/1
184: Wright 6/2
197: McIntosh 16/DNP
285: Wade 6/R12
2012:
6 AA
5 Met Seed
3 Surpass Seed
1 Below Seed
Points scored: 143
2013:
125: Nico 4/2
133: Conaway 12/R12
141: Pearsall 18/DNP
149: A. Alton 11/DNP
157: D. Alton 8/R12
165: Taylor 2/2
174: Brown 2/2
184: Ruth 1/1
107: Wright 2/1
285: Lawson 14/DNP
2013:
5 AA
6 Met Seed
2 Surpass Seed
1 Below Seed
Points scored: 123.5
2014:
125: Nico 3/3
133: Gulibon 29/DNP
141: Retherford 3/5
149: English 21/7
157: D. Alton 13/DNP
165: Taylor 1/1
174: Brown 5/5
184: Ruth 2/1
197: McIntosh 3/7
285: Gingrich 14/DNP
2014:
7 AA
3 Met Seed
2 Surpass Seed
2 Below Seed
Points scored: 109.5
2015:
125: Conaway 11/7
133: Gulibon 7/5
157: Beitz 12/DNP
174: Brown 2/1
184: McCutcheon 14/R12
197: McIntosh 2/3
285: Lawson 8/8
2015:
5 AA
1 Met Seed
4 Surpass Seed
2 Below Seed
Points scored: 67.5
But what do we take from all of this? First off, in the Last 5 years we have had at least 5 All Americans, but in that period, only once did more wrestlers surpass their seed than either those who met or performed below their seed. That was in 2015. It should be noted that in that year, the number of wrestlers who surpassed their seed was higher than the number of those who either failed to meet or met their seed combined.
And what about the Taylor, Ruth factor, something I mentioned at the beginning of the post? Here are the points they scored at Nationals during their years at the school and their weight classes during that season.
2011:
157: Taylor 22
174: Ruth 20
Total: 42
2012:
165: Taylor 30.5
174: Ruth 27.5
Total: 58
2013:
165: Taylor 24
184: Ruth 26
Total: 50
2014:
165: Taylor 27
184: Ruth 24.5
Total 51.5
So I had a hunch that Penn State would have won last year’s nationals if they had had David Taylor or Ed Ruth at their respective weights. Now obviously this is a difficult assessment to make, but for the sake of argument I decided to replace the point value of the Penn State Wrestlers at 157/165/174/184 (depending on the year) with the points earned by Taylor and Ruth. For reference:
157: Beitz 2
165: N/A
174: Brown 22
184: McCutcheon 3.5
Here is the amount of points gained by making that replacement. (Obviously the years in which we are replacing Matt Brown's score benefit less from this exercise).
2011: +18
2012: +36
2013: +46.5
2014: +48
Penn State scored 67.5 points in 2015. If we were to do that math we would find...
2011: 85.5
2012: 103.5
2013: 114
2014: 115.5
Ohio State won the Championship in 2015 with 102 points. That means that Penn State would have surpassed tOSU's score by slotting in Taylor and Ruth's performance from the years 2012-2014.
In fact the score of the 2014 Penn State team (which won Nationals) was actually surpassed by the 2015 team + Taylor and Ruth.
Overall I think that the 2015 team was one of the better tournament teams we've ever had. The 2012 Team that scored 143 points was undeniably better, but that was based largely on high seeded wrestlers performing to expectations.
This year’s team looks to be closer to the model of 2013, but to me it seems that wrestlers like Matt Mcutcheon, Shakur Rasheed, Kade Moss or even Jimmy Gulibon (since he's tanking his ranking so badly at this point that a performance representative of his talent while surely surpass his given seed) will be able to follow in the footsteps of the 2015 team and generate points from wrestlers expected not to.
Nationals can’t come soon enough.
The biggest things last year's team had going against them was the graduation of Taylor and Ruth, as well as the red-shirt of Nico and Zain. When the tournament was finished and Penn State had claimed 6th Place (after a disappointing finish of 5th at B10's by .5 points) not only couldn't I help but feel as if the team had vastly exceeded expectations, but I wondered if, had Taylor and Ruth wrestled, how Penn State would have done.
Here are the finishes of Penn State wrestlers at Nationals from 2011-2015. The numbers to the right of their name indicate (Seed)/(Finish). Directly below that is information regarding the number of All Americans and the number of wrestlers who met, surpassed and performed below seed, respectively, as well as the number of points scored by the team that year. (For purposes of seeds higher than 8 and I have considered R12 finishes as on par with being seeded 9-12. I have also determined that wrestler who does not place and was seeded 13 or above should be marked as having met their seed.
2011:
125: Pataky 21/DNP
133: Long 3/3
141: A. Alton 6/R12
149: Molinaro 2/2
157: Taylor 3/2
174: Ruth 2/3
184: Wright 9/1
285: Wade 9/R12
2011:
5 AA
4 Met Seed
2 Surpass Seed
2 Below Seed
Points scored: 107.5
2012:
125: Nico 10/2
133: Martellotti 32/DNP
149: Molinaro 1/1
157: D. Alton 7/3
165: Taylor 1/1
174: Ruth 1/1
184: Wright 6/2
197: McIntosh 16/DNP
285: Wade 6/R12
2012:
6 AA
5 Met Seed
3 Surpass Seed
1 Below Seed
Points scored: 143
2013:
125: Nico 4/2
133: Conaway 12/R12
141: Pearsall 18/DNP
149: A. Alton 11/DNP
157: D. Alton 8/R12
165: Taylor 2/2
174: Brown 2/2
184: Ruth 1/1
107: Wright 2/1
285: Lawson 14/DNP
2013:
5 AA
6 Met Seed
2 Surpass Seed
1 Below Seed
Points scored: 123.5
2014:
125: Nico 3/3
133: Gulibon 29/DNP
141: Retherford 3/5
149: English 21/7
157: D. Alton 13/DNP
165: Taylor 1/1
174: Brown 5/5
184: Ruth 2/1
197: McIntosh 3/7
285: Gingrich 14/DNP
2014:
7 AA
3 Met Seed
2 Surpass Seed
2 Below Seed
Points scored: 109.5
2015:
125: Conaway 11/7
133: Gulibon 7/5
157: Beitz 12/DNP
174: Brown 2/1
184: McCutcheon 14/R12
197: McIntosh 2/3
285: Lawson 8/8
2015:
5 AA
1 Met Seed
4 Surpass Seed
2 Below Seed
Points scored: 67.5
But what do we take from all of this? First off, in the Last 5 years we have had at least 5 All Americans, but in that period, only once did more wrestlers surpass their seed than either those who met or performed below their seed. That was in 2015. It should be noted that in that year, the number of wrestlers who surpassed their seed was higher than the number of those who either failed to meet or met their seed combined.
And what about the Taylor, Ruth factor, something I mentioned at the beginning of the post? Here are the points they scored at Nationals during their years at the school and their weight classes during that season.
2011:
157: Taylor 22
174: Ruth 20
Total: 42
2012:
165: Taylor 30.5
174: Ruth 27.5
Total: 58
2013:
165: Taylor 24
184: Ruth 26
Total: 50
2014:
165: Taylor 27
184: Ruth 24.5
Total 51.5
So I had a hunch that Penn State would have won last year’s nationals if they had had David Taylor or Ed Ruth at their respective weights. Now obviously this is a difficult assessment to make, but for the sake of argument I decided to replace the point value of the Penn State Wrestlers at 157/165/174/184 (depending on the year) with the points earned by Taylor and Ruth. For reference:
157: Beitz 2
165: N/A
174: Brown 22
184: McCutcheon 3.5
Here is the amount of points gained by making that replacement. (Obviously the years in which we are replacing Matt Brown's score benefit less from this exercise).
2011: +18
2012: +36
2013: +46.5
2014: +48
Penn State scored 67.5 points in 2015. If we were to do that math we would find...
2011: 85.5
2012: 103.5
2013: 114
2014: 115.5
Ohio State won the Championship in 2015 with 102 points. That means that Penn State would have surpassed tOSU's score by slotting in Taylor and Ruth's performance from the years 2012-2014.
In fact the score of the 2014 Penn State team (which won Nationals) was actually surpassed by the 2015 team + Taylor and Ruth.
Overall I think that the 2015 team was one of the better tournament teams we've ever had. The 2012 Team that scored 143 points was undeniably better, but that was based largely on high seeded wrestlers performing to expectations.
This year’s team looks to be closer to the model of 2013, but to me it seems that wrestlers like Matt Mcutcheon, Shakur Rasheed, Kade Moss or even Jimmy Gulibon (since he's tanking his ranking so badly at this point that a performance representative of his talent while surely surpass his given seed) will be able to follow in the footsteps of the 2015 team and generate points from wrestlers expected not to.
Nationals can’t come soon enough.
