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What to expect from Wisconsin

tboyer

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Sep 25, 2002
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Help me out here if you know anything about the Wisconsin players and matchups.

One thing you can say about them is they've played a tougher schedule than PSU. They've lost to the good teams, beaten the bad teams. They may have played their best game of the season handling NW but NW doesn't have much going on this year. Blew out Rutgers but the bottom has dropped out for RU so that may not mean much. Beaten soundly by USC -- USC outscored them 28-0 in the 2nd half (game was at USC). Lost to Alabama.

Passing yards per completion, PSU ranks 12th, WI 68th, but they have played better teams so that may not mean much.
Scoring defense, WI ranks 18th in the country. That may mean something. IL ranks 22nd and that's probably the best defense PSU has seen. (PSU ranks 9th by the way, but again, hasn't played the kind of teams Wisconsin has played). PSU's 10th in Rushing D, Wisconsin 61st, again see schedule.

Sacks allowed, PSU ranks 16th, WI 30th. Rushing offense, PSU 25th, Wisconsin 35. Turnover margin, Wisky ranks 101 bc they've lost 7 fumbles and 5 Ints. (PSU is middle of the pack in TO margin). But you could turn that around to mean, maybe Wisky would have won a couple more games if they hadn't fumbled so much. Still, I bet PSU is emphasizing forcing fumbles this week.

Team tackles for loss: PSU is 30th, Wisky only 120th. So they do not have a D-line that gets a lot of penetration and/or not a lot of blitzing. That may be style of play if they're playing a relatively passive BBDB kind of scheme. Still, that looks like one potential area of opportunity for PSU.

I really don't know what the WI players to watch are. Reportedly a good secondary, great safety (though they only rank 106th in interceptions -- PSU is only 69th), good running backs. Their QB looked good against Rutgers but he was under no pressure, so who knows.

All in all I would guess a pretty similar game to Illinois. Tougher in that it will be an away game, but Illinois may have better athletes in a few places and a very good QB. PSU has done well in recent years against Wisconsin -- they've usually won with speed and explosive plays. But this year, with this offensive line and Kotelnicki's running schemes, they might be able to play bully ball a little bit too.
 
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One thing you can say about them is they've played a tougher schedule than PSU

They played Bama. Our best opponent is probably Illinois. Otherwise, we've both played USC. Not sure where you got they lost to LSU though.

All in all I would guess a pretty similar game to Illinois. Tougher in that it will be an away game, but Illinois may have better athletes in a few places and a very good QB.

Wisky is definitely a weaker team than Illinois. This being a road trip for us is the only advantage I see for them. The middle and lower Big 10 is a mess. Wisky shutdown NW, who thumped Maryland, who upset USC, who beat Wisky. Good luck making projections off that mess.
 
They played Bama. Our best opponent is probably Illinois. Otherwise, we've both played USC. Not sure where you got they lost to LSU though.



Wisky is definitely a weaker team than Illinois. This being a road trip for us is the only advantage I see for them. The middle and lower Big 10 is a mess. Wisky shutdown NW, who thumped Maryland, who upset USC, who beat Wisky. Good luck making projections off that mess.
My bad, LSU was their bowl game which shows up in the Google schedule.
 
Help me out here if you know anything about the Wisconsin players and matchups.

One thing you can say about them is they've played a tougher schedule than PSU. They've lost to the good teams, beaten the bad teams. They may have played their best game of the season handling NW but NW doesn't have much going on this year. Blew out Rutgers but the bottom has dropped out for RU so that may not mean much. Beaten soundly by USC -- USC outscored them 28-0 in the 2nd half (game was at USC). Lost to Alabama and LSU.

Passing yards per completion, PSU ranks 12th, WI 68th, but they have played better teams so that may not mean much.
Scoring defense, WI ranks 18th in the country. That may mean something. IL ranks 22nd and that's probably the best defense PSU has seen. (PSU ranks 9th by the way, but again, hasn't played the kind of teams Wisconsin has played). PSU's 10th in Rushing D, Wisconsin 61st, again see schedule.

Sacks allowed, PSU ranks 16th, WI 30th. Rushing offense, PSU 25th, Wisconsin 35. Turnover margin, Wisky ranks 101 bc they've lost 7 fumbles and 5 Ints. (PSU is middle of the pack in TO margin). But you could turn that around to mean, maybe Wisky would have won a couple more games if they hadn't fumbled so much. Still, I bet PSU is emphasizing forcing fumbles this week.

Team tackles for loss: PSU is 30th, Wisky only 120th. So they do not have a D-line that gets a lot of penetration and/or not a lot of blitzing. That may be style of play if they're playing a relatively passive BBDB kind of scheme. Still, that looks like one potential area of opportunity for PSU.

I really don't know what the WI players to watch are. Reportedly a good secondary, great safety (though they only rank 106th in interceptions -- PSU is only 69th), good running backs. Their QB looked good against Rutgers but he was under no pressure, so who knows.

All in all I would guess a pretty similar game to Illinois. Tougher in that it will be an away game, but Illinois may have better athletes in a few places and a very good QB. PSU has done well in recent years against Wisconsin -- they've usually won with speed and explosive plays. But this year, with this offensive line and Kotelnicki's running schemes, they might be able to play bully ball a little bit too.
Appreciate all that information.
I have only seen them play against USC. It was a tale of two separate halfs. Their QB is their back-up since VanDyke went down (out for the season) in the first series of their first game. This QB has now had time to improve and settle in with their offense. After the USC game one of their RBs, Chad Mellusi stop playing indicating need to improve his health.
Their DC, Tressell (Jim's son) does a good job with the personnel he has.
They walloped Rutgers while Rutgers was missing key starters on defense.
I assume they are better and more confident than after their USC beatdown, still should not beat PSU.
 
Stop the run. That’s it.
I agree. I would hope that the defensive staff has a plan to take the run away from them. Bill Belichick was famous with the Patriots for taking away what a team does best and making them one dimensional. I'd be shocked if Wisconsin would have much success if PSU makes them mostly a passing team.
 
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FWIW, they're defensive rankings (specifically secondary/passing) are VERY skewed. They played some of the worst passing teams in FBS - Northwestern, Rutgers, Purdue, South Dakota, and Western Michigan. Against USC and Bama, that defense was absolutely lit up by Milroe and Moss + each's running game.

They'll play sound fundamental defense, but they can't keep up with superior athletes and speed.

I don't think they'll trust their QB to do much down the field. My prediction is that they'll attempt to run the ball and shorten the game. Make it ugly. Hopefully depend on a miscue or 3. Keep it close. Pull one out at the end.

Opposite of week's past, I think PSU will come out slingin' to open up the run later in the game. Make Wisky play from behind.

Defensively, sell out to stuff the run and make the QB beat our secondary with longer developing route trees. Hopefully turn 3-step drops into 5 and 7-step drops to let the pass rush do it's thing.
 
Help me out here if you know anything about the Wisconsin players and matchups.

One thing you can say about them is they've played a tougher schedule than PSU. They've lost to the good teams, beaten the bad teams. They may have played their best game of the season handling NW but NW doesn't have much going on this year. Blew out Rutgers but the bottom has dropped out for RU so that may not mean much. Beaten soundly by USC -- USC outscored them 28-0 in the 2nd half (game was at USC). Lost to Alabama.

Passing yards per completion, PSU ranks 12th, WI 68th, but they have played better teams so that may not mean much.
Scoring defense, WI ranks 18th in the country. That may mean something. IL ranks 22nd and that's probably the best defense PSU has seen. (PSU ranks 9th by the way, but again, hasn't played the kind of teams Wisconsin has played). PSU's 10th in Rushing D, Wisconsin 61st, again see schedule.

Sacks allowed, PSU ranks 16th, WI 30th. Rushing offense, PSU 25th, Wisconsin 35. Turnover margin, Wisky ranks 101 bc they've lost 7 fumbles and 5 Ints. (PSU is middle of the pack in TO margin). But you could turn that around to mean, maybe Wisky would have won a couple more games if they hadn't fumbled so much. Still, I bet PSU is emphasizing forcing fumbles this week.

Team tackles for loss: PSU is 30th, Wisky only 120th. So they do not have a D-line that gets a lot of penetration and/or not a lot of blitzing. That may be style of play if they're playing a relatively passive BBDB kind of scheme. Still, that looks like one potential area of opportunity for PSU.

I really don't know what the WI players to watch are. Reportedly a good secondary, great safety (though they only rank 106th in interceptions -- PSU is only 69th), good running backs. Their QB looked good against Rutgers but he was under no pressure, so who knows.

All in all I would guess a pretty similar game to Illinois. Tougher in that it will be an away game, but Illinois may have better athletes in a few places and a very good QB. PSU has done well in recent years against Wisconsin -- they've usually won with speed and explosive plays. But this year, with this offensive line and Kotelnicki's running schemes, they might be able to play bully ball a little bit too.
Not sure I agree that they have had the tougher schedule. @ West Virginia (before that entire team quit), plus ranked Illinois instead of 2-loss (one against Vanderbilt) Alabama. That's even there. Then Purdue, Rutgers, Northwestern? We can agree to disagree.
 
Technically, Wisky's schedule is rated as more difficult. Kent State will forever skew PSU's SOS.

But in the two games they played a team with a pulse, or albeit, any talent AT ALL. They were out manned completely.
 
Opposite of week's past, I think PSU will come out slingin' to open up the run later in the game. Make Wisky play from behind.
That makes sense. Also -- if they want any chance of staying with Ohio State the following week, they do not want a 4 quarter meat grinder type game at Madison. If they can get explosive plays, I bet they don't wait for the 2nd half.
 
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Coming into Camp Randall a highly ranked team and playing in a nationally televised night game in front of a rabid 76K Badger fans who will have had all day to get gooned up concerns me greatly. PSU needs to get off to a fast start and be the first to put points on the board.
 
Coming into Camp Randall a highly ranked team and playing in a nationally televised night game in front of a rabid 76K Badger fans who will have had all day to get gooned up concerns me greatly. PSU needs to get off to a fast start and be the first to put points on the board.
After USC I'm confident we can play from behind and win. I'd just prefer not to
 
I always laugh at when people say well look at their sos. . Doesn’t matter when you get dusted by the those teams that makes your schedule look good.
 
I always laugh at when people say well look at their sos. . Doesn’t matter when you get dusted by the those teams that makes your schedule look good.

I agree with this. Their toughest games are a 5-2 Bama (who completely dominated them) and a 3-4 USC (who woke up and obliterated them in the 2nd half). Their best win is Rutgers (who just got beat by UCLA).

It seems we have a certain sect of posters who are going to fluff up every remaining opponent before every single game. We aren't the players. We aren't the coaches. We can discuss this how it looks. They will need an A effort for 4 quarters and us to play a D game for this to be close to a loss.

If things hold status quo, we start slow and pull away with superior athletes and depth. The question becomes what does AK choose to work on, run or pass?
 
I agree with this. Their toughest games are a 5-2 Bama (who completely dominated them) and a 3-4 USC (who woke up and obliterated them in the 2nd half). Their best win is Rutgers (who just got beat by UCLA).

It seems we have a certain sect of posters who are going to fluff up every remaining opponent before every single game. We aren't the players. We aren't the coaches. We can discuss this how it looks. They will need an A effort for 4 quarters and us to play a D game for this to be close to a loss.

If things hold status quo, we start slow and pull away with superior athletes and depth. The question becomes what does AK choose to work on, run or pass?
I mean, Washington is apparently scary. I think someone said Maryland in this thread too.
 
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I agree with this. Their toughest games are a 5-2 Bama (who completely dominated them) and a 3-4 USC (who woke up and obliterated them in the 2nd half). Their best win is Rutgers (who just got beat by UCLA).

It seems we have a certain sect of posters who are going to fluff up every remaining opponent before every single game. We aren't the players. We aren't the coaches. We can discuss this how it looks. They will need an A effort for 4 quarters and us to play a D game for this to be close to a loss.

If things hold status quo, we start slow and pull away with superior athletes and depth. The question becomes what does AK choose to work on, run or pass?
Because there are some pussies on here, plus some people who just talk nonsense because they have too much free time. They probably still get their lunch money taken too.
 
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I mean, Washington is apparently scary. I think someone said Maryland in this thread too.

I'm all for rational discussion, but a lot of these are leaps and bounds to say "I told you so" if we lose to anybody besides OSU.

Maryland lol I mean, kudos to them for beating USC, but this is a Trojan team that has struggled for 18-19 games now. Good win for them (because they seldom beat anybody with more talent), but they got boatraced by Northwestern at home on a Friday.
 
I honestly think people think it's disrespectful to admit we're supposed to beat programs like Wisconsin, USC and WVU--but we are.
 
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I'm all for rational discussion, but a lot of these are leaps and bounds to say "I told you so" if we lose to anybody besides OSU.

Maryland lol I mean, kudos to them for beating USC, but this is a Trojan team that has struggled for 18-19 games now. Good win for them (because they seldom beat anybody with more talent), but they got boatraced by Northwestern at home on a Friday.
I agree--it's a combination of "told you so" and "trying to limit expectations"
I laughed at the Maryland comment--Washington isn't too much better than Maryland to be fair.
Washington last year was a fluke-ish run
 
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Stop the run. That’s it.
I'd like to think we can stop the run with 4 DL and 3 LBs, not by bringing Reed to the LOS. Wisconsin is in trouble if we can do that.

I expect Wisconsin to copy what BGSU & USC did. Lots of quick release passes to counter the pass rush. If PSU get's too aggressive Wisconsin might find open spaces to make big gains. On defense I expect Wisconsin to focus on stopping the run. I don't think PSU is strong enough to have the same success that they had against Illinois. We'll have to mix run & pass to keep Wisconsin's defense off balance.

I expect Wisconsin to scheme to take Warren away. The questions are:
  • Did Allar turn the corner at USC?
  • Did the light go on for Fleming?
  • Will Wallace reemerge?
 
I have a good friend who is a Badger fan. Over a beer this week, we were discussing the game. While he was optimistic that the Badgers could pull an upset, in his words it would take the perfect storm of events. What really stuck with me, was when he said that what PSU was able to do to USC, coming back, in the Coliseum , holding on and winning was to him, impressive. His thoughts:

- While the Badgers have shown some improvement over the last 3 games, the competition did not give him any relief when it comes to who they are as a team. He takes no solace in beating NW, Rutgers and Purdue. Which he did point out Purdue had 3 turnovers and had more total yards. Purdue beat them in passing and as a yard less in rushing, which to him does not bode well.

- The 2 games the have mattered so far, Bama and USC, both settled in and athletically over matched Wisconsin. In his words, we looked like we were playing in slow motion and they were just moving at a higher gear.

- He laughed at the 6.5 point spread, in his words, I would be shocked if it's less that 14 points. Does not think Camp Randall, at night affects PSU.

- Lastly, his worries, are that Wisconsin wont be able to stop all the PSU weapons. Does not see them having an answer for Warren and feels with that threat always there, its hard for them to just focus on the run. He feels PSU has shown that they can beat you by both running or passing and they don't have the horses to just go toe to toe with talent. As he said 14 points or less he would be happy, but he would not be shocked if the wheels come off and they lose by 30.

Just his thoughts and feelings.
 
- He laughed at the 6.5 point spread, in his words, I would be shocked if it's less that 14 points. Does not think Camp Randall, at night affects PSU.
Yeah, this one screams "bet Penn State"--people are focused on Penn State possibly looking ahead and the night game nonsense but, in terms of talent, we're a much better team. Even on the road less than a TD is crazy. My line was -8 on if I'd bet.
 
After USC I'm confident we can play from behind and win. I'd just prefer not to
PSU has a habit of moving the ball but not scoring many points in the first half. The score was tied vs Illinois until halfway through the 3rd quarter and it was still a 1 score game until 4 minutes remaining. Against USC we only had one 1st half punt but we only scored 6 pts.

I agree that PSU has the ability to come from behind but continuing to do that is bound to eventually bite you in the rear end.
 
PSU has a habit of moving the ball but not scoring many points in the first half. The score was tied vs Illinois until halfway through the 3rd quarter and it was still a 1 score game until 4 minutes remaining. Against USC we only had one 1st half punt but we only scored 6 pts.

I agree that PSU has the ability to come from behind but continuing to do that is bound to eventually bite you in the rear end.
And we definitely can't do that against Ohio State or any playoff team but against Wisconsin--I'll be annoyed but not worried
 
PSU has a habit of moving the ball but not scoring many points in the first half. The score was tied vs Illinois until halfway through the 3rd quarter and it was still a 1 score game until 4 minutes remaining. Against USC we only had one 1st half punt but we only scored 6 pts.

I agree that PSU has the ability to come from behind but continuing to do that is bound to eventually bite you in the rear end.
A lot of that has to do with becoming ultra-conservative inside of the 10, like with the first drive against USC. I'm a fan of the running game, but perhaps the staff should trust Allar to pass on first down inside of the 10 instead of the predictable run up the middle that gains one or two yards. If I recall, in the first drive against USC, we ran on first and second downs inside of the 10 and gained almost nothing.
 
I'd like to think we can stop the run with 4 DL and 3 LBs, not by bringing Reed to the LOS. Wisconsin is in trouble if we can do that.

I expect Wisconsin to copy what BGSU & USC did. Lots of quick release passes to counter the pass rush. If PSU get's too aggressive Wisconsin might find open spaces to make big gains. On defense I expect Wisconsin to focus on stopping the run. I don't think PSU is strong enough to have the same success that they had against Illinois. We'll have to mix run & pass to keep Wisconsin's defense off balance.

I expect Wisconsin to scheme to take Warren away. The questions are:
  • Did Allar turn the corner at USC?
  • Did the light go on for Fleming?
  • Will Wallace reemerge?
You can't compare USC and Wisconsin on offense. They played each other and you see what happened. USC's athletic talent especially on offense is far superior to Wisconsin's. The Wisconsin offense should pose no problems for our defense. They have a limited passing game and an average run game.

Then on defense they had no ability to stop USC. None in the 2nd half. Same goes for Bama. Our offense with our talent of RBs, Warren and even Wallace, Fleming, Evans, Clifford completely out classes them. Warren should have a total field day. Should be open every play and if they can somehow take that away (don't see them doing that) we have our other weapons.

Only minor concern is if Allar just has a bad day and throws like 3 picks and one is a pick 6 or something like that. Although even at that we can overcome it and handle them.
 
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PSU has a habit of moving the ball but not scoring many points in the first half. The score was tied vs Illinois until halfway through the 3rd quarter and it was still a 1 score game until 4 minutes remaining. Against USC we only had one 1st half punt but we only scored 6 pts.

I agree that PSU has the ability to come from behind but continuing to do that is bound to eventually bite you in the rear end.
Don't necessarily disagree, mainly because of the two 1st & Goal trips against USC which only amounted to two FGs. But if FG kicking isn't an issue against Illinois, we win that game 30-7 and the game would've been over by the start of the fourth quarter.

In a rock em sock em BIG matchup like Wisky, Illinois, Iowa, Minny, etc. getting FGs really does matter. It's a different type of battle than when playing OSU, USC, Oregon where you NEED to score TDs vs FGs because of the amount of offensive firepower on the field.
 
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Help me out here if you know anything about the Wisconsin players and matchups.

One thing you can say about them is they've played a tougher schedule than PSU. They've lost to the good teams, beaten the bad teams. They may have played their best game of the season handling NW but NW doesn't have much going on this year. Blew out Rutgers but the bottom has dropped out for RU so that may not mean much. Beaten soundly by USC -- USC outscored them 28-0 in the 2nd half (game was at USC). Lost to Alabama.

Passing yards per completion, PSU ranks 12th, WI 68th, but they have played better teams so that may not mean much.
Scoring defense, WI ranks 18th in the country. That may mean something. IL ranks 22nd and that's probably the best defense PSU has seen. (PSU ranks 9th by the way, but again, hasn't played the kind of teams Wisconsin has played). PSU's 10th in Rushing D, Wisconsin 61st, again see schedule.

Sacks allowed, PSU ranks 16th, WI 30th. Rushing offense, PSU 25th, Wisconsin 35. Turnover margin, Wisky ranks 101 bc they've lost 7 fumbles and 5 Ints. (PSU is middle of the pack in TO margin). But you could turn that around to mean, maybe Wisky would have won a couple more games if they hadn't fumbled so much. Still, I bet PSU is emphasizing forcing fumbles this week.

Team tackles for loss: PSU is 30th, Wisky only 120th. So they do not have a D-line that gets a lot of penetration and/or not a lot of blitzing. That may be style of play if they're playing a relatively passive BBDB kind of scheme. Still, that looks like one potential area of opportunity for PSU.

I really don't know what the WI players to watch are. Reportedly a good secondary, great safety (though they only rank 106th in interceptions -- PSU is only 69th), good running backs. Their QB looked good against Rutgers but he was under no pressure, so who knows.

All in all I would guess a pretty similar game to Illinois. Tougher in that it will be an away game, but Illinois may have better athletes in a few places and a very good QB. PSU has done well in recent years against Wisconsin -- they've usually won with speed and explosive plays. But this year, with this offensive line and Kotelnicki's running schemes, they might be able to play bully ball a little bit too.

Wisconsin is a good team. They've won three blowouts in a row...albeit none of them against top-25 competition.

It's better to go into Madison thinking tough game and be pleasantly surprised than to expect to beat them easily and find yourself in a dogfight.

Way too much overconfidence in the fan base. Fortunately, the coaching staff won't buy into it and will make sure the team doesn't either.
 
Wisconsin is a good team. They've won three blowouts in a row...albeit none of them against top-25 competition.

It's better to go into Madison thinking tough game and be pleasantly surprised than to expect to beat them easily and find yourself in a dogfight.

Way too much overconfidence in the fan base. Fortunately, the coaching staff won't buy into it and will make sure the team doesn't either.
By not top 25 competition here you mean MAC level...why are we constantly trying to make opponents better than they are
 
A lot of that has to do with becoming ultra-conservative inside of the 10, like with the first drive against USC. I'm a fan of the running game, but perhaps the staff should trust Allar to pass on first down inside of the 10 instead of the predictable run up the middle that gains one or two yards. If I recall, in the first drive against USC, we ran on first and second downs inside of the 10 and gained almost nothing.
As long as it's not the dreaded fade in the corner of the endzone.
 
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Tengwall broke them down today on his podcast. Excellent work he does. They will run motion a lot, they like to throw to the backs also. I would expect some misdirection also because of the USC tape, although they don't have the same speed USC has.

The key will be the lbs to read their keys, and the pass rush getting home as often as possible defensively. Need to bring the running game also this week, and then complimentary football when it's available. They won't beat themselves but if that ball comes loose then get on it.
 
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Let's just hope PSU brings their A game with no hangover from the bye week.

IMO PSU's season hangs on this game. Losses today and next week vs OSU and PSU could be on the outside looking in wrt playoffs. A win on Saturday night probably gives them a 75% change of making the playoffs.
 
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Let's just hope PSU brings their A game with no hangover from the bye week.

IMO PSU's season hangs on this game. Lost today and next week vs OSU and PSU could be on the outside looking in wrt playoffs. A win on Saturday night probably gives them a 75% change of making the playoffs.

I have the same feeling about this game as I did about USC: on paper we match up well and should handle them, but some intangibles could make it challenging.

Vegas makes us a 6.5-point favorite (versus 3.5 over USC). The FPI winning percentage is 70 (versus 48 against USC). If we do in fact bring our A game, we win. Anything less and we may find ourselves in a dogfight.

USC ended up being a 5-drink game for me, the 5th being celebratory. I'm hoping this one stays at 2-3... ;)
 
I watched the Wisky-NW game (I know, that's 30 minutes I'll never get back) and I just didn't see much from either team. NW just has nothing going on. They are small and slow.

Wisky is bigger and controlled LOS; the game was only close for as long as it was because Wisky QB does not have a great arm, throws into coverage and gets picked accordingly.

Anyway from that game I didn't see anything for PSU to worry about. But .... you go on the road in the B10 with a high ranking, and stuff happens. Power goes out to your high-rise hotel and players miss their morning routine climbing steps down from the 25th floor and they're eating cold pizza for breakfast and suddenly it's halfway through the first quarter and they're down 21-0...
 
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