My question is...why does a 5-star guy like Smith need his last year to excel then? As you mentioned with Shorter, Slade...we can even add Lamont Wade who was a high star guy (who obviously was rated too high), and even Devyn Ford...these are all guys who were at least high 4's to low 5's and all were pretty bad or marginal. JF's hit rate on the highest of the high stars hasn't been great.
I think the issue is what does a 5* rating truly mean?
Take Shorter. He had size that was prototypical. Supposedly did well at camps (I don't think you ascend high without attending them). And he never improved one bit once he got here. Probably got depressed. Gained some bad weight. He leaves, loses the weight, but he is still playing like a 2*. Stars don't account for drive and motivation.
Take Wade. I think he played in the lower levels of PA ball. He was built, ran fast. Probably should have been a slot WR/RB and kick returner. He comes in as a CB. Plays early, has bad hips for CB, moved to safety. Great against the run, mediocre against the pass. Short on top of that. Probably peaked early or was evaluated wrong.
Slade, I don't know. He wasn't a brute, and he certainly played slow. Knowing how Virginia football is, he was probably the fastest kid on the field and likely put up his stats on sweeps and pitches. Don't think he had the motivation as he's out of football last I read.
As for Smith, I'll play the covid card. He is really in his second year as far as football learning goes. His 5* is definitely body composition and speed for his size. LB instincts are tough to train. Take our previous Brandon Smith. 5* instincts, 2* body and skills, probably left here a shade higher than a 3* with coaching.
Another example. Aaron Harrison at OSU. We pined over him. He's under LJs tutelage, among the best in the country. He's not lived up to being the next Young/Bosa brother. Much like Smith, he just doesn't have that finishing gear.