I have promised this analysis upon my return from my family visit in PA.
But I have also learned from my first posted summary of a data set https://bwi.forums.rivals.com/threa...e-most-out-of-the-talent-last-3-years.239183/ that some that do not like the data that they are seeing, will offer a multitude of reasons that it is not valid. Therefore, I am providing my assumptions and methods with this data set at the bottom of this post.
The numbers below are a summary for draft years 2015 - 2019. Conversion rate tells you what percentage above or below the amount of draft picks exceeded that expected by the recruited talent or what should have been produced by the average rate for ALL 5 stars (53% are drafted), 4 stars (20%), 3 stars(6%), and 2 star and below (3%) from the 2000 - 2014 NFL drafts courtesy of SB Nation.
School Tot 5 star Tot 4 star Tot 3 star Tot 2 & below Total Drafted Conversion Rate
Utah 0 7.5 97 16 19 143.59%
BC 0 0.5 83.5 21.5 14 143.27%
NC St 0 7 104 9.5 17 114.51%
Wisconsin 0 11.5 82 8 16 114.48%
Miami 3.5 35 77.5 5 29 112.38%
Louisville 0 11 93.5 6.5 17 112.37%
Washington 1 27.5 78 9.5 23 109.19%
Iowa 0 7 94.5 11.5 15 102.29%
WVU 0 10.5 104 12 17 95.40%
Ohio St 6.5 75 39 3.5 40 91.48%
Penn St 1.5 30 69.5 3 21 89.96%
Stanford 3 32.5 61 1 22 86.76%
Florida 8.5 46.5 63 0 32 81.97%
Clemson 6 47.5 56 5 29 79.12%
Oklahoma 4 45.5 70 3 27 74.08%
W.Kentucky 0 0 30 79.5 7 67.26%
Miss St 1.5 21.5 95.5 4 18 64.46%
TCU 0 13 95.5 10 14 62.22%
Alabama 24 72 31 0 46 58.73%
Houston 0.5 2.5 74.5 39 10 56.13%
Arkansas 0.5 26.5 93 6 17 50.11%
Michigan 2.5 56 46.5 1 23 49.89%
Mich St 1 21 78.5 2 14 47.37%
K State 0 1 80 26.5 8 38.05%
Ole Miss 6.5 31 78 7 20 37.60%
Boise St 0 2 92 21 9 37.40%
UCLA 5.5 48.5 54.5 5 22 37.20%
UCF 0 2 68 21.5 7 36.59%
W. Mich 0 0 52.5 70.5 7 32.95%
Memphis 0 1 53 88.5 8 32.56%
Pitt 1 14 78 11.5 11 31.66%
Maryland 2 12 78 10.5 11 30.10%
Missouri 2 11.5 94.5 6.5 12 30.08%
Northwestern 0 6 79.5 7.5 8 29.14%
LSU 8.5 71 42.5 4 27 26.32%
V. Tech 1 21 96 3 13 22.87%
Minnesota 0 1.5 99 12.5 8 20.94%
Ariz St 0 21.5 90 10 12 20.00%
San Diego St 0 2 64 54.5 7 19.15%
Georgia 11.5 53.5 62 1.5 24 16.73%
USC 12.5 54 35 6.5 23 16.63%
N. Carolina 0 17 85 4.5 10 15.81%
Notre Dame 4 65.5 36.5 2 20 14.48%
Auburn 7 62 54 3 22 13.17%
FSU 16.5 55.5 42.5 2.5 25 11.26%
Tex A&M 9 49 59.5 4 20 9.53%
USF 0 2.5 92 14 7 8.70%
Okla St 0 16.5 94 9 10 8.58%
Indiana 0 5 97 22 8 6.95%
Oregon St 1 1.5 104 15.5 8 6.17%
Baylor 2 15.5 86.5 12 10 2.99%
Oregon 3.5 37 61.5 3 13 -0.27%
Georgia Tech 0 3 87.5 9 6 -1.96%
Wash St 0 3 100 21 7 -3.18%
Utah St 0 0 29 80.5 4 -3.73%
Colorado 0 3.5 80 24.5 6 -3.77%
Cal 0.5 20 80 10 9 -3.90%
S.Carolina 0.5 37 87 2.5 12 -7.41%
Nebraska 0 27.5 76.5 4 9 -11.85%
Fresno St 0 1 47 58 4 -15.97%
Wake Forest 0 0 95 18 5 -19.87%
Rutgers 1.5 11 88 16.5 7 -20.18%
Vanderbilt 0 10 89.5 12.5 6 -22.53%
Illinois 0 3.5 86 22.5 5 -23.49%
Kentucky 0 14.5 102.5 6 7 -24.16%
Virginia 2 12 93.5 6.5 7 -24.45%
Texas Tech 0 16 98 9 7 -25.13%
Cincinnati 0 1.5 101 21 5 -28.47%
Texas 5 63 51 1.5 13 -29.17%
Purdue 0 3 88 23 4 -39.12%
Kansas 0 2.5 89.5 26 4 -39.85%
Tennessee 1 54.5 73.5 3 9 -43.50%
Duke 0 2 84.5 11.5 3 -48.41%
Navy 0 0 25 95.5 2 -54.18%
Arizona 0 10 107 16.5 4 -55.13%
Syracuse 0 3.5 94 23.5 3 -57.42%
Iowa St 0 2 96.5 22.5 2 -70.87%
Army 0 0 7.5 121 0 -100.00%
1) I used the 247 recruiting totals for number of 5 star, 4 star, 3 star, and 2 star & below in each class for each school going back to 2010.
2) I used the assumption from https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...18617865/five-star-recruits-nfl-draft-history that 53% of 5 stars are drafted, 20% of 4 stars, 6% of 3 stars, and 3% of 2 stars. This was compiled from NFL draft results from 2000-2014. It seems that the star rankings have inflated very slightly over time.
3) So for each NFL draft class by school, I compared the total number drafted to the predicted number drafted based off of the percentages above applied to the recruiting classes which were likely to contribute to that draft. I multiplied the senior class by 0.5, the redshirt senior class by 0.25, and the junior class by 0.25 to sum the total 5 stars, 4 stars, etc from that school that should have been draft eligible for that draft year. Therefore each draft class is eventually counted just once but it is spread over the 3 years which they are likely to contribute to the draft.
4) The 5 star sum for that draft year was multiplied by 0.53 and added to the 4 star sum multiplied by .2 and added to the 3 star sum multiplied by 0.06 and added the 2 star and below sum by 0.03 to achieve a predicted number of total draft picks for that school in that draft year.
5) The predicted draft sum was subtracted by the actual drafted sum for each school that year.
6) A conversion rate was determined by taking that difference in step 5 and dividing by the predicted draft total for the school. This is percentage gives you an idea of how well a school did at converting recruited high school talent into NFL draft picks.
But I have also learned from my first posted summary of a data set https://bwi.forums.rivals.com/threa...e-most-out-of-the-talent-last-3-years.239183/ that some that do not like the data that they are seeing, will offer a multitude of reasons that it is not valid. Therefore, I am providing my assumptions and methods with this data set at the bottom of this post.
The numbers below are a summary for draft years 2015 - 2019. Conversion rate tells you what percentage above or below the amount of draft picks exceeded that expected by the recruited talent or what should have been produced by the average rate for ALL 5 stars (53% are drafted), 4 stars (20%), 3 stars(6%), and 2 star and below (3%) from the 2000 - 2014 NFL drafts courtesy of SB Nation.
School Tot 5 star Tot 4 star Tot 3 star Tot 2 & below Total Drafted Conversion Rate
Utah 0 7.5 97 16 19 143.59%
BC 0 0.5 83.5 21.5 14 143.27%
NC St 0 7 104 9.5 17 114.51%
Wisconsin 0 11.5 82 8 16 114.48%
Miami 3.5 35 77.5 5 29 112.38%
Louisville 0 11 93.5 6.5 17 112.37%
Washington 1 27.5 78 9.5 23 109.19%
Iowa 0 7 94.5 11.5 15 102.29%
WVU 0 10.5 104 12 17 95.40%
Ohio St 6.5 75 39 3.5 40 91.48%
Penn St 1.5 30 69.5 3 21 89.96%
Stanford 3 32.5 61 1 22 86.76%
Florida 8.5 46.5 63 0 32 81.97%
Clemson 6 47.5 56 5 29 79.12%
Oklahoma 4 45.5 70 3 27 74.08%
W.Kentucky 0 0 30 79.5 7 67.26%
Miss St 1.5 21.5 95.5 4 18 64.46%
TCU 0 13 95.5 10 14 62.22%
Alabama 24 72 31 0 46 58.73%
Houston 0.5 2.5 74.5 39 10 56.13%
Arkansas 0.5 26.5 93 6 17 50.11%
Michigan 2.5 56 46.5 1 23 49.89%
Mich St 1 21 78.5 2 14 47.37%
K State 0 1 80 26.5 8 38.05%
Ole Miss 6.5 31 78 7 20 37.60%
Boise St 0 2 92 21 9 37.40%
UCLA 5.5 48.5 54.5 5 22 37.20%
UCF 0 2 68 21.5 7 36.59%
W. Mich 0 0 52.5 70.5 7 32.95%
Memphis 0 1 53 88.5 8 32.56%
Pitt 1 14 78 11.5 11 31.66%
Maryland 2 12 78 10.5 11 30.10%
Missouri 2 11.5 94.5 6.5 12 30.08%
Northwestern 0 6 79.5 7.5 8 29.14%
LSU 8.5 71 42.5 4 27 26.32%
V. Tech 1 21 96 3 13 22.87%
Minnesota 0 1.5 99 12.5 8 20.94%
Ariz St 0 21.5 90 10 12 20.00%
San Diego St 0 2 64 54.5 7 19.15%
Georgia 11.5 53.5 62 1.5 24 16.73%
USC 12.5 54 35 6.5 23 16.63%
N. Carolina 0 17 85 4.5 10 15.81%
Notre Dame 4 65.5 36.5 2 20 14.48%
Auburn 7 62 54 3 22 13.17%
FSU 16.5 55.5 42.5 2.5 25 11.26%
Tex A&M 9 49 59.5 4 20 9.53%
USF 0 2.5 92 14 7 8.70%
Okla St 0 16.5 94 9 10 8.58%
Indiana 0 5 97 22 8 6.95%
Oregon St 1 1.5 104 15.5 8 6.17%
Baylor 2 15.5 86.5 12 10 2.99%
Oregon 3.5 37 61.5 3 13 -0.27%
Georgia Tech 0 3 87.5 9 6 -1.96%
Wash St 0 3 100 21 7 -3.18%
Utah St 0 0 29 80.5 4 -3.73%
Colorado 0 3.5 80 24.5 6 -3.77%
Cal 0.5 20 80 10 9 -3.90%
S.Carolina 0.5 37 87 2.5 12 -7.41%
Nebraska 0 27.5 76.5 4 9 -11.85%
Fresno St 0 1 47 58 4 -15.97%
Wake Forest 0 0 95 18 5 -19.87%
Rutgers 1.5 11 88 16.5 7 -20.18%
Vanderbilt 0 10 89.5 12.5 6 -22.53%
Illinois 0 3.5 86 22.5 5 -23.49%
Kentucky 0 14.5 102.5 6 7 -24.16%
Virginia 2 12 93.5 6.5 7 -24.45%
Texas Tech 0 16 98 9 7 -25.13%
Cincinnati 0 1.5 101 21 5 -28.47%
Texas 5 63 51 1.5 13 -29.17%
Purdue 0 3 88 23 4 -39.12%
Kansas 0 2.5 89.5 26 4 -39.85%
Tennessee 1 54.5 73.5 3 9 -43.50%
Duke 0 2 84.5 11.5 3 -48.41%
Navy 0 0 25 95.5 2 -54.18%
Arizona 0 10 107 16.5 4 -55.13%
Syracuse 0 3.5 94 23.5 3 -57.42%
Iowa St 0 2 96.5 22.5 2 -70.87%
Army 0 0 7.5 121 0 -100.00%
1) I used the 247 recruiting totals for number of 5 star, 4 star, 3 star, and 2 star & below in each class for each school going back to 2010.
2) I used the assumption from https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...18617865/five-star-recruits-nfl-draft-history that 53% of 5 stars are drafted, 20% of 4 stars, 6% of 3 stars, and 3% of 2 stars. This was compiled from NFL draft results from 2000-2014. It seems that the star rankings have inflated very slightly over time.
3) So for each NFL draft class by school, I compared the total number drafted to the predicted number drafted based off of the percentages above applied to the recruiting classes which were likely to contribute to that draft. I multiplied the senior class by 0.5, the redshirt senior class by 0.25, and the junior class by 0.25 to sum the total 5 stars, 4 stars, etc from that school that should have been draft eligible for that draft year. Therefore each draft class is eventually counted just once but it is spread over the 3 years which they are likely to contribute to the draft.
4) The 5 star sum for that draft year was multiplied by 0.53 and added to the 4 star sum multiplied by .2 and added to the 3 star sum multiplied by 0.06 and added the 2 star and below sum by 0.03 to achieve a predicted number of total draft picks for that school in that draft year.
5) The predicted draft sum was subtracted by the actual drafted sum for each school that year.
6) A conversion rate was determined by taking that difference in step 5 and dividing by the predicted draft total for the school. This is percentage gives you an idea of how well a school did at converting recruited high school talent into NFL draft picks.
