Who Will Make Penn State’s Starting Lineup Next Year and Will They Break the Scoring Record?
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Would require an insane tournament but on paper, it's not that much of a stretch
Champs at 5 weights (157, 174, 184, 197, 285)
Finalists at 133, 141, 149
That would give us 148 points to start before bonus and assuming 0 at 125, 165 (doubtful at 165 IMO, hopeful at 125 that's not the case)
That is obviously a perfect tournament but nothing is that obscure in itself. Hell 4 of the champs most would probably say are the early favorites. Bernie is clear #2 at the weight. Bartlett moves to #2 as Alirez redshirts, Van Ness if what he showed at NCAAs is constant, could be a champ but obviously you hat tip to Sasso and Ridge Lovett returning first but no reason he can't beat either IMO. Nagao obviously would have a longer shot as he would need to beat Fix (I think that's possible) That being said, the chances of all of it happening together (by probability) isn't super likely but Cael has broken probability before.
If Robbie is healthy, 125 isn't super strong and Mesenbrink's ceiling is insanely high but 165 is once again, a meat grinder.
I won't predict anything that ridiculous but it's easy to see why people are talking about it
Champs at 5 weights (157, 174, 184, 197, 285)
Finalists at 133, 141, 149
That would give us 148 points to start before bonus and assuming 0 at 125, 165 (doubtful at 165 IMO, hopeful at 125 that's not the case)
That is obviously a perfect tournament but nothing is that obscure in itself. Hell 4 of the champs most would probably say are the early favorites. Bernie is clear #2 at the weight. Bartlett moves to #2 as Alirez redshirts, Van Ness if what he showed at NCAAs is constant, could be a champ but obviously you hat tip to Sasso and Ridge Lovett returning first but no reason he can't beat either IMO. Nagao obviously would have a longer shot as he would need to beat Fix (I think that's possible) That being said, the chances of all of it happening together (by probability) isn't super likely but Cael has broken probability before.
If Robbie is healthy, 125 isn't super strong and Mesenbrink's ceiling is insanely high but 165 is once again, a meat grinder.
I won't predict anything that ridiculous but it's easy to see why people are talking about it
I don't think any team breaks the scoring record because of the loss of the advancement point for winning in round of 32. That change happened about 10 years ago and basically means the loss of around 8 team points. Now if we actually end up with 10 finalists in any given year that problem goes away, but that is so unlikely in spite of our B&W glasses projections that I don't see it happening.
I would think that with the moves Cael made this off season the record is a goal. This team would have been the favorit without those 3 transfers, but now the team is incredibly solid at every weight. The only issue he could have been looking at is the uncertainty of who would take an Olympic redshirt, but I would have to think the team record is something Cael would like to take away from Iowa.
Somehow I don't think the scoring record is anything Cael even thinks about.
I agree. I don't think Cael looks at things like that. He wants his guys to wrestle to the best of their abilities and whatever happens, happens from a score perspective.
Does anyone know or have an interesting guess why Penn State doesn't wrestle as much as other schools? I felt like that kind of hurt Starocci's chances of getting the Hodge. I don't remember the exact numbers but I think all the other guys on the Hodge finalist list had like 10-15 more wins that Starocci, just because they wrestled that many more times throughout the season.
I think one reason is we have better competition in our room then they do at the holliday tournaments.
At Penn State, I believe it's more about staying healthy and wrestling a competitive schedule, than maximizing the number of bouts wrestled.
This, 100%. Penn State is consistently healthier, fresher, and overachieving at nationals while de-emphasizing onerous cuts and heavy tournament schedules. Coincidence?
Yep. Cael is next gen in his thinking and approach. He's so far ahead of the curve at this point. The dinosaurs locked into "old school" thinking will, I believe, never catch up. It's going to be fresh, new minds that will begin to challenge in the future. Programs that try to keep using the old approaches will fade further and further into the distance. Just my opinion.
You just might say that those programs will be so far behind, that the dust will have settled before they have a chance to eat it. #Nicollsknowledge
Carter lost the Hodge because (1) Parris was a SR, (2) HWT was a far tougher weight, (3) Parris had nearly 3x more pins, (4) some believe Carter isn't the best wrestler on his own team.
# matches was likely not a factor. Steveson won in 2022 with only 18 matches.
Mason was ahead of Carter in all criteria this year (or a wash) It's not unlike Zain over Ringer in 2016 but ... they eliminated "past credentials" as a factor this year. Otherwise Carter's 2 previous championships might have swayed some voters. But Carter likely lost some votes due to his Indiana match antics since he's the only guy who had an incident like that this year.
Agreed. If Carter wants the Hodge he needs to get his bonus % in the 80-90% range. Doable, and more important than total matches IMO.
I'll call it now PSU has 3 of the top 5 candidates come the end of the year.
Vito A
Keegan O
Carter S
Aaron B
I can see several other Lions right there including:
Kerk - to be honest I am not confident in his mental approach to top competition. His Parris matches were far from inspiring, while running like a buzz saw through typical competition. He has to want it and go after the best with confidence.
Nagao, Levi, SVN maybe even Truax might surprise. Granted aside from Max, I haven't seen a first year wrestler reach his full potential under Cael's system. That is, at least to the point where the thought of being a Hodge contender isn't just plain silly.
I don't think Cael specifically thinks about the record because that goal wouldn't be high enough for him. I think his goal is to have ten individual champs. It's not completely nuts to think they could put 8 guys in the finals next year with the caveat that we really don't know how good Howard and Mesenbrink are going to be. Does anybody actually believe that Howard has no chance against Ramos or Noto? It's definitely a taller order but the lack of info about Mesenbrink in folkstyle along with the PSU-bump means that while it's unlikely it's not impossible he makes a run at 165 as well.
As far as the scheduling goes I'm surprised they don't go to at least one prestige tournament. I suspect that Cael wanted RBY to get a look at Vito so they went to the duals in NOLA so they could prep for him at Nationals. I'd like to see them get a shot at some other guys since one of their biggest strengths is developing strategies for rematches.
As far as the scheduling goes I'm surprised they don't go to at least one prestige tournament. I suspect that Cael wanted RBY to get a look at Vito so they went to the duals in NOLA so they could prep for him at Nationals. I'd like to see them get a shot at some other guys since one of their biggest strengths is developing strategies for rematches.
I like that Truax has almost 10 months under Cael and isn't a mid-season transfer. I think that should be enough time for the coaches to work their magic. With Brooks, Hidlay, Romero, Coleman...clearing out 184 appears to be weaker than in the past. Hodge probably out of reach, but a path to the finals is there if healthy.
And, unfortunately, he needs to be more likable. Unless you are clearly the best guy out there, all things being equal, more will vote for a guy like Parris or Lee as compared to Carter.
Likely a hunch. But Cael seems very good at convincing undecided wrestlers to wrestle:
-RBY returning last year (outright said he didn't plan to)
-AB was apparently leaning redshirt last year (cut was hard and he wanted to try free more)
-I know Cassar was iffy on taking his medical year (esp with the Olympics), apparently Hall/Cenzo were both on the fence about wrestling 2020 also
-DT didn't redshirt in 2012
It's not hard to sell Carter on wrestling next year:
1. Get #4 with AB then be done with wrestling
2. Be the face of one of the best teams ever
3. NIL money
4. Also I pointed out but guys who win Olympic Medals out of college tend to wrestle the folk season (which I imagine helps their tank for tournaments) Cox did, Snyder did, Gable did, Spencer obviously was planning to wrestle the Olympics in 2020.
One thing I can see would truly cause hesitation for Carter is if his knee injury is serious but that seems to have been lingering since NCAAs and he has plenty of time to heal now.
Pyles went further and said he wouldn't be shocked (though maybe not super shocking) if Carter changed his mind about not being interested in 5 either.
I know it is probably impossible to know what guys are getting but do you really think NIL is a big factor in sports like wrestling? I just can't believe anyone would be getting anything more than say $50k. I know there are rumors galore, I just don't believe them.
Carter can cement himself as a legend and be at the top of his sport while making good NIL money without getting punched in the face. It seems like a no-brainer to milk NCAA wrestling as long as possible instead of going to the bottom of the rankings in MMA.
I have ZERO information about how much NIL money a decent, good or great college wrestler makes, but if I was 21 or 22 years old, was told that I could wrestle for my 4th NCAA title while hanging around PSU/State College for another year AND making 50K while doing the above, that would certainly be enough for me. Some guys are anxious to get on with their lives, but for most college-aged kids, 50 grand is a LOT of money.
I don't believe Carter is using this "I want to focus on the Olympics" thing as some bluff. If he wants NIL money, he knows he can get it.
I think the inherent challenge with Carter is for him to be ready for the Olympics, it's a huge physical challenge of getting to 74KG. If he holds 174 for a season, making that cut for OTT will be miserable. Probably to the point he will last one minute in his first match before dying out. If he shrinks himself, it might require dedication that would make wrestling difficult. If he wants to be in striking distance of 74KG and he's wrestling 174, it'll definitely take away his ability to win #4 since a lot of what makes Carter great is his brick wall defense. He wrestled 182 (granted he wasn't cutting) as a senior in HS and he looks much stronger now (as you'd expect) Candidly, I still don't see how he possibly makes 162.
You can't tell a kid to not chase a dream. But Carter is just unfortunately a tweener for the Olympics like many others and even if 79KG was an Olympic weight, he would have a ways to go there to be the rep as well.
I think the inherent challenge with Carter is for him to be ready for the Olympics, it's a huge physical challenge of getting to 74KG. If he holds 174 for a season, making that cut for OTT will be miserable. Probably to the point he will last one minute in his first match before dying out. If he shrinks himself, it might require dedication that would make wrestling difficult. If he wants to be in striking distance of 74KG and he's wrestling 174, it'll definitely take away his ability to win #4 since a lot of what makes Carter great is his brick wall defense. He wrestled 182 (granted he wasn't cutting) as a senior in HS and he looks much stronger now (as you'd expect) Candidly, I still don't see how he possibly makes 162.
You can't tell a kid to not chase a dream. But Carter is just unfortunately a tweener for the Olympics like many others and even if 79KG was an Olympic weight, he would have a ways to go there to be the rep as well.
Perhaps you remember being an undergraduate. If your grandma sent you a birthday check for say $100 (in 1980 dollars) ….. how damn good was that. Being 20-21 in State College with $10k in your pocket …. how great would that be?
50 grand is just the debt that most college-aged students have after their first year... 😉
Those kids can spend that kind of cash and not even have anything to show for it.
I don't know how much "giving them money" goes on in college wrestling, but a single day camp/clinic is going to generate a check upwards $5,000.
20 camp/clinics is 6 figures. That plus some billboard advertising, internet advertising or a few simple meet and greeting and all of a sudden a not yet college graduate is earning more than 90 percent of US adults.
That would be a single day camp/clinic. 20 days out of a spring, summer and early fall doesn't seem like a lot to me.
How much are these camps per kid if they can pay guys $5000 to show up for a one day camp? I can't see it.
Not sure what they get. Haven't been to one for a while, but as far back as Quentin doing them the going rate was 2,500 a day. It was still 2 500 when Nolf, Joseph and Hall were doing single day clinics. I just figured a few must be getting upwards of 5,000 nowadays.
Any chance he goes 165 for PSU? That would allow him to make the cut early and have a whole season of wrestling at the lower weight to prepare for the trials.
If you think a Penn State wrestler would cut like that, you haven't been paying attention. Wrestling at a natural weight is one reason why Penn State does so well at NCAAs. It is hard to maintain a cut for three days. Wrestlers tend to gas out. (Cough, cough, Marinelli, cough.)
I understand that, but if his intention is to go 74kg for the Olympics, then the motivation for the cut is external to anything having to do with Penn State, and if he's going to do it, then maybe there is a benefit to doing it early to get acclimated to the lower weight and have a season to wrestle at that weight before the trials instead of having to do a drastic cut and then immediately wrestle the most important matches of your life at a weight you haven't been at in many years. If he's not trying to get to 74 for the Olympics, then there's no way he would cut, but everything I've seen indicates that 74 is his plan and the 24 Olympics is his goal.
That still doesn't mean he drops to 165 for a full college regular season. The better plan would be to continue to wrestle 174, but walk around at/closer to 174 than he currently does.
Regular season 165s will get manhandled at Trials by Dake and Burroughs -- if they even get that far.
I'm beating a dead horse at this point, but since I posted the bulk of what's below elsewhere, I thought I would get usage out of the words! 😁 (so no, I don't have THAT much free time!!) Plus, I do value your opinion.
As to your thoughts...
1) Yes - I think that's it -- and an anti-PSU bias.
2) Eh, "far tougher"... I'd suggest that's an opinion debate (and yes, you can point to freestyle records, but, apples/oranges)
3) Somewhat misleading -- as a % of matches it was less than double and CS had almost double the % of majors as Parris. Plus, we know # of pins is not a specific criteria, so...
4) I'd say more than some! But somewhat irrelevant to the point!
Anyway, here's the part I copied-and-pasted...
Here is the link that details who gets to vote: https://www.win-magazine.com/hodge-vote/
To wit: "...all past Hodge winners get an official Hodge Vote for each year they won the award. The additional Hodge Trophy Votes from the Hodge Trophy Voting Committee made up of national wrestling media, a retired college coach from each region, a representative of each national wrestling organization, and the Official Fan Vote on WIN’s website, which accounts for (5) Official First-Place Ballots." (If you scroll down you'll notice this is not this year's list of nominees. Why? Because the current year's post returns an Error 404 message, so this is the best I had so we can get the numbers we need below!!)
Here is the link that lists all the past Hodge Trophy winners who would have voted for this year's award: https://www.win-magazine.com/win-awards/hodge-trophy/
That's 30 votes. One for every year from 1995 - 2022 plus double winners in '01 and '21. (Note: I'm assuming all these guys are still alive!)
Here is the link that details how all the votes were cast this year: https://www.win-magazine.com/2023/0...re-house-dan-hodge-trophy-presented-by-asics/ (this link is no longer active)
To wit: Parris - 38; Starocci - 14; Yianni - 6; Alirez - 4; O'Connor - 2. Five of Parri's votes were the Fan Vote, so deducting those, we have a total of 59 votes cast.
Both the links above for the past winners and who gets to vote also list the criteria for the Award.
Hodge Criteria:
1 – Record
2 – Dominance/Bonus-Point Percentage
3 – Quality of Competition
4 – Sportsmanship
Let's compare Parris and Starocci...
Record: Parris - 33-0; Starocci - 24-0
Dominance:
Parris - Pins: 11 (33%); Technical Falls: 3 (9%); Major Decisions: 7 (21%)
Starocci - Pins: 4 (17%); Technical Falls: 3 (12%); Major Decisions: 9 (37%)
Points at NCAA's; Parris - 23.5; Starocci - 24.
Bonus-Point %: Parris - 64%; Starocci - 67%
Quality of Competition: Both wrestle in the B1G. I'm not traipsing through individual matches to parse this.
Sportsmanship: Starocci helped his team to an NCAA team title. Parris's team scored less than half the points Starocci's did.
Here's how I see it:
1 – Wash
2 – Wash
3 – Wash
4 – Starocci
Extra Bonus due to the closeness of the race - Past Performance: Parris - one natty; Starocci - three natty's in a row. Win for Starocci.
So how does Parris - who we are still waiting to take a shot at Kerk after 21 minutes of wrestling this season - get 64% of the vote to Starocci's 24%? Somewhat dumbfounding isn't it?
From the list of previous winners above we see that Penn State should control 9 votes - Bo and Kerry's one each, Zain and DT's two each, and Cael's three. Meaning if they all voted for Starocci, only five more votes came Starocci's way. Like I said, it's baffling to me.
Interestingly, the guy I feel really bad for is O'Connor. Go undefeated, have a higher bonus % than either of these guys, and win two natty's a year apart while wrestling in NC. And get two votes. Dang.
What amazes me about Iowa 1997 is that they managed to get 170 points with "only" 6 finalists (5 champs).
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