Xi is one cold, calculating SOB. As is Putin. So these two snakes are in the same viper pit…which one survives?
First there is the obvious play…the two of them met before the invasion started. .Xi encouraged Putin to invade saying he would help out as much as possible. Xi is buying oil, nat gas, grain, and lots of stuff keeping the Putinstan economy alive. Xi did so because a war in Europe takes both attention and resources from China and Taiwan. It drains the defensive capabilities of the west and strains their economies. All good for Xi.
But I think much more is at play. China is a huge country but has poor natural resources. It imports 75% of its oil. Needs lots of nat gas. Same with minerals. And a lot of all that sits just to its north….in Russia. China and Russia have a long history of invasions and counter invasions. And China is always about the long game.
Xi knows that Russia is a massive country with lots of restive ethnicities and cultures. Multiple languages, diverse history, large regions divided by mountains and deserts and more. It is all held together by a strong central government with no qualms about using power to maintain it. There have been many attempts of various regions trying to break away and gain independence. Chechnya is a great example.
By encouraging Putin to invade Ukraine not only did the west become tied up with resources spent but so is Russia. And Russia will be far weaker as Putin pulled troops from all across the country to fight in Ukraine. He has also lost over 1,500 tanks, a couple hundred aircraft, expended 80% of his arsenal of missiles, rockets, mortars and artillery. And over 200,000 killed or wounded. And the sanctions have caused many problems in the Russian economy, including the ability to rebuild munitions and supplies.
So how long before some of the hinterlands of Russia sense an opportunity to revolt? How would Putin hold onto these regions while all his forces are committed to a war in the west? Could Russia fall apart in the next five to ten years?
If so, China will be poised to take full advantage. Making deals in resource rich areas desperate for help on very friendly terms. Recognizing break away countries. Building relationships that greatly help China solve many of its problems.
Going to be fascinating to watch these two in such a death dance.
First there is the obvious play…the two of them met before the invasion started. .Xi encouraged Putin to invade saying he would help out as much as possible. Xi is buying oil, nat gas, grain, and lots of stuff keeping the Putinstan economy alive. Xi did so because a war in Europe takes both attention and resources from China and Taiwan. It drains the defensive capabilities of the west and strains their economies. All good for Xi.
But I think much more is at play. China is a huge country but has poor natural resources. It imports 75% of its oil. Needs lots of nat gas. Same with minerals. And a lot of all that sits just to its north….in Russia. China and Russia have a long history of invasions and counter invasions. And China is always about the long game.
Xi knows that Russia is a massive country with lots of restive ethnicities and cultures. Multiple languages, diverse history, large regions divided by mountains and deserts and more. It is all held together by a strong central government with no qualms about using power to maintain it. There have been many attempts of various regions trying to break away and gain independence. Chechnya is a great example.
By encouraging Putin to invade Ukraine not only did the west become tied up with resources spent but so is Russia. And Russia will be far weaker as Putin pulled troops from all across the country to fight in Ukraine. He has also lost over 1,500 tanks, a couple hundred aircraft, expended 80% of his arsenal of missiles, rockets, mortars and artillery. And over 200,000 killed or wounded. And the sanctions have caused many problems in the Russian economy, including the ability to rebuild munitions and supplies.
So how long before some of the hinterlands of Russia sense an opportunity to revolt? How would Putin hold onto these regions while all his forces are committed to a war in the west? Could Russia fall apart in the next five to ten years?
If so, China will be poised to take full advantage. Making deals in resource rich areas desperate for help on very friendly terms. Recognizing break away countries. Building relationships that greatly help China solve many of its problems.
Going to be fascinating to watch these two in such a death dance.
