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Why is RBY Ranked #2 at 133 on WrestleStat?

Sean Harp

Well-Known Member
Dec 18, 2015
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Alum Bank, PA
RBY is undefeated over the last two and a half seasons. Daton Fix has lost twice. Both losses are to RBY yet Fix is ranked above RBY. Why? Hazarding a guess but Fix has a better career record and bonus rate? Perhaps the algorithm needs more emphasis on recency and head to head results?

Please know that I am a fan of WrestleStat and mathematical sports rankings in general. Soccer fans like myself consider the FIFA Rankings to be political garbage and instead use Elo Rankings. One need only note the relative rankings of Germany and the United States to see why.

WrestleStat usually gets it right with the occasional outlier. For example, Cole Matthews is still ranked first at 141 despite losing to the kid from West Virginia. Pretty sure I'm not the only one who was unfamiliar with Jordan Titus.
 
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Well Penn State finally went to the number one dual meet team last week.

I looked at some wrestling comparisions between our three freshman and some wrestlers ranked ahead of them. Wrestle Stat predicted Penn State wins even when the penn state freshmen were ranked below them.

I don't understand it, perhaps RBY will be ranked over Fix next year after he graduates.
 
RBY is undefeated over the last two and a half seasons. Daton Fix has lost twice. Both losses are to RBY yet Fix is ranked above RBY. Why? Hazarding a guess but Fix has a better career record and bonus rate? Perhaps the algorithm needs more emphasis on recency and head to head results?

Please know that I am a fan of WrestleStat and mathematical sports rankings in general. Soccer fans like myself consider the FIFA Rankings to be political garbage and instead use Elo Rankings. One need only note the relative rankings of Germany and the United States to see why.

WrestleStat usually gets it right with the occasional outlier. For example, Cole Matthews is still ranked first at 141 despite losing to the kid from West Virginia. Pretty sure I'm not the only one who was unfamiliar with Jordan Titus.
Andegre (founder of wrestlestat) commented on this in the other thread..he is working on it for next year.

 
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RBY is undefeated over the last two and a half seasons. Daton Fix has lost twice. Both losses are to RBY yet Fix is ranked above RBY. Why? Hazarding a guess but Fix has a better career record and bonus rate? Perhaps the algorithm needs more emphasis on recency and head to head results?

Please know that I am a fan of WrestleStat and mathematical sports rankings in general. Soccer fans like myself consider the FIFA Rankings to be political garbage and instead use Elo Rankings. One need only note the relative rankings of Germany and the United States to see why.

WrestleStat usually gets it right with the occasional outlier. For example, Cole Matthews is still ranked first at 141 despite losing to the kid from West Virginia. Pretty sure I'm not the only one who was unfamiliar with Jordan Titus.

Current FIFA Rankings and Wrestlestat are both modified ELO calculations.

Broke this down last year. Basically, RBY shouldn't have backflipped and hurt himself against Purdue, that loss is the big driver of the gap that RBY hasn't made up. (He did temporarily but Fix has more and better HTH schedule this year and re-took the lead for now)



Algorithm needs more emphasis on recency and head to head results is your answer.
 
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RBY is undefeated over the last two and a half seasons. Daton Fix has lost twice. Both losses are to RBY yet Fix is ranked above RBY. Why? Hazarding a guess but Fix has a better career record and bonus rate? Perhaps the algorithm needs more emphasis on recency and head to head results?

Please know that I am a fan of WrestleStat and mathematical sports rankings in general. Soccer fans like myself consider the FIFA Rankings to be political garbage and instead use Elo Rankings. One need only note the relative rankings of Germany and the United States to see why.

WrestleStat usually gets it right with the occasional outlier. For example, Cole Matthews is still ranked first at 141 despite losing to the kid from West Virginia. Pretty sure I'm not the only one who was unfamiliar with Jordan Titus.
Why is Italy ranked #7? They didn't even make the World Cup!
 
Why is Italy ranked #7? They didn't even make the World Cup!
Italy spanked World Cup Champions Argentina 3-0 in July. European qualifying is brutal and there is often a big name casualty be it Italy, Netherlands, or whomever. CONCACAF is pattycake compared to UEFA. We're not talking the US getting knocked off by Trinidad & Tobago the previous cycle.
 
RBY is undefeated over the last two and a half seasons. Daton Fix has lost twice. Both losses are to RBY yet Fix is ranked above RBY. Why? Hazarding a guess but Fix has a better career record and bonus rate? Perhaps the algorithm needs more emphasis on recency and head to head results?

Please know that I am a fan of WrestleStat and mathematical sports rankings in general. Soccer fans like myself consider the FIFA Rankings to be political garbage and instead use Elo Rankings. One need only note the relative rankings of Germany and the United States to see why.

WrestleStat usually gets it right with the occasional outlier. For example, Cole Matthews is still ranked first at 141 despite losing to the kid from West Virginia. Pretty sure I'm not the only one who was unfamiliar with Jordan Titus.
The better question is why do you care? Not only care but care enough to check out the wrestlestat rankings and then comment/complain about it here? zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Rankings by whatever source don't mean much. They are great for getting an idea of who is who, but they are NOT a predictor of future results, nor are they meant to be.
 
Italy spanked World Cup Champions Argentina 3-0 in July. European qualifying is brutal and there is often a big name casualty be it Italy, Netherlands, or whomever. CONCACAF is pattycake compared to UEFA. We're not talking the US getting knocked off by Trinidad & Tobago the previous cycle.
I know. That was a joke. Wrestlestat-related sarcasm is lost because of the constant wrestlestat-related complaining that goes on. Just know that if this were a soccer website, certain people would be demanding Italy's ranking to PLUMMET after the loss to North Macedonia.

The real answer is along the lines of what SpikingWhamos stated above. RBY's 2 close H2H wins are (just barely) outweighed by his early career losses.
 
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The better question is why do you care? Not only care but care enough to check out the wrestlestat rankings and then comment/complain about it here? zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Rankings by whatever source don't mean much. They are great for getting an idea of who is who, but they are NOT a predictor of future results, nor are they meant to be.
So despite the heading of the post, you chose to read it anyway so you could what? Complain that I'm complaining? Um, okay.

Why do I care? Huh. Apparently anything worth doing is worth doing right is no longer a thing. Duly noted, good sir.
 
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I know. That was a joke. Wrestlestat-related sarcasm is lost because of the constant wrestlestat-related complaining that goes on. Just know that if this were a soccer website, certain people would be demanding Italy's ranking to PLUMMET after the loss to North Macedonia.

The real answer is along the lines of what SpikingWhamos stated above. RBY's 2 close H2H wins are (just barely) outweighed by his early career losses.
Ah, thanks for the info on frequent WrestleStat posts. Admittedly, I seldom frequent message boards as they are not conducive to our better angels. Thanks again.
 
So despite the heading of the post, you chose to read it anyway so you could what? Complain that I'm complaining? Um, okay.

Why do I care? Huh. Apparently anything worth doing is worth doing right is no longer a thing. Duly noted, good sir.
touche
 
RBY is undefeated over the last two and a half seasons. Daton Fix has lost twice. Both losses are to RBY yet Fix is ranked above RBY. Why? Hazarding a guess but Fix has a better career record and bonus rate? Perhaps the algorithm needs more emphasis on recency and head to head results?

Please know that I am a fan of WrestleStat and mathematical sports rankings in general. Soccer fans like myself consider the FIFA Rankings to be political garbage and instead use Elo Rankings. One need only note the relative rankings of Germany and the United States to see why.

WrestleStat usually gets it right with the occasional outlier. For example, Cole Matthews is still ranked first at 141 despite losing to the kid from West Virginia. Pretty sure I'm not the only one who was unfamiliar with Jordan Titus.
Yeah, as noted in the other "WrestleStat gonna wrestle stat" thread linked in here, I did make quite a few enhancements to the algorithm this offseason, and had everything looking good to start the season, now this happens!

I had RBY as #1, but looking through everything, the reason Fix moved ahead THIS TIME is because of more matches.

I need to go check out the algorithm to see why the H2H component isn't kicking in for this scenario.

I'm unsure whether I'll make a chance mid-season, or if I'll wait until offseason to implement. Let me investigate the changes needed to see if there are other repercussions that should prevent me from changing this mid-season.


Here's my gif interpretation of my offseason algo changes...
shooting-leg-shooting-foot.gif
 
Yeah, as noted in the other "WrestleStat gonna wrestle stat" thread linked in here, I did make quite a few enhancements to the algorithm this offseason, and had everything looking good to start the season, now this happens!

I had RBY as #1, but looking through everything, the reason Fix moved ahead THIS TIME is because of more matches.

I need to go check out the algorithm to see why the H2H component isn't kicking in for this scenario.

I'm unsure whether I'll make a chance mid-season, or if I'll wait until offseason to implement. Let me investigate the changes needed to see if there are other repercussions that should prevent me from changing this mid-season.


Here's my gif interpretation of my offseason algo changes...
shooting-leg-shooting-foot.gif
Thank you foryour thoughtful response. Simply knowing that it's on your radar is good enough. FWIW, waiting until the offseason seems prudent. Without knowing your operation, I'm guessing there is greater downside risk for changing horses midstream. PS Love the gif and thanks for the chuckle.
 
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Yeah, as noted in the other "WrestleStat gonna wrestle stat" thread linked in here, I did make quite a few enhancements to the algorithm this offseason, and had everything looking good to start the season, now this happens!

I had RBY as #1, but looking through everything, the reason Fix moved ahead THIS TIME is because of more matches.

I need to go check out the algorithm to see why the H2H component isn't kicking in for this scenario.

I'm unsure whether I'll make a chance mid-season, or if I'll wait until offseason to implement. Let me investigate the changes needed to see if there are other repercussions that should prevent me from changing this mid-season.


Here's my gif interpretation of my offseason algo changes...
shooting-leg-shooting-foot.gif
giphy.gif
 
I feel like once the moon is in conjunction with Pluto, WS algo will bump him up
 
Current FIFA Rankings and Wrestlestat are both modified ELO calculations.

Broke this down last year. Basically, RBY shouldn't have backflipped and hurt himself against Purdue, that loss is the big driver of the gap that RBY hasn't made up. (He did temporarily but Fix has more and better HTH schedule this year and re-took the lead for now)



Algorithm needs more emphasis and recency and head to head results is your answer.
RBY has nine career losses to, at the time 14, 16, 5, 9, 5, 7, 6, 1, 3. Record 88-9.
Fix has had four career losses to, at the time, 10, 3, 5, 1. Record 90-4.

It isn't just the loss to Purdue that has hurt his ELO score.
 
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RBY has nine career losses to, at the time 14, 16, 5, 9, 5, 7, 6, 1, 3. Record 88-9.
Fix has had four career losses to, at the time, 10, 3, 5, 1. Record 90-4.

It isn't just the loss to Purdue that has hurt his ELO score.

Did you read my full write-up? Of course it isn't just that loss, but the comparative freshman year accounts for the hole that RBY hasn't quite been able to dig out of despite the wins, and that loss was the biggest drop in that year.
 
Yeah the only way to remedy the situation is to both tweak the ELO to de-weight matches as they age, and over weight head to head. It's no longer ELO but a hybrid.

In a one on one sport like wrestling 'recent' head to head matchups should figure in very prominently. What happened 3 years ago should almost be discarded completely IMO.
 
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