WrestleStat Week 5 Dual Comparisons

[andegre]

There are some big matchups this weekend; on Friday there's Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State. Then on Sunday, there's Penn State vs Lehigh. Also on Friday is Iowa vs South Dakota State.

Here's all of the duals:

12/02 #27 South Dakota State vs #4 Iowa http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/68/south-dakota-state/34/iowa

12/02 #46 Northwestern vs #40 North Dakota State http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/53/northwestern/49/north-dakota-state

12/02 #16 Oklahoma vs #1 Oklahoma State http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/56/oklahoma/57/oklahoma-state

12/02 #45 Gardner-Webb vs #31 Virginia http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/28/gardner-webb/73/virginia

12/03 #6 Nebraska vs #50 Michigan State http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/45/nebraska/41/michigan-state

12/03 #74 Franklin & Marshall vs #65 VMI http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/27/franklin-and-marshall/75/vmi

12/03 #21 Drexel vs #24 Princeton http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/23/drexel/63/princeton

12/03 #50 Michigan State vs #24 Princeton http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/41/michigan-state/63/princeton

12/03 #6 Nebraska vs #24 Princeton http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/45/nebraska/63/princeton

12/03 #49 Lock Haven vs #29 Rider http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/38/lock-haven/65/rider

12/03 #76 Davidson vs #75 Sacred Heart http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/22/davidson/67/sacred-heart

12/03 #76 Davidson vs #38 Appalachian State http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/22/davidson/3/appalachian-state

12/03 #75 Sacred Heart vs #38 Appalachian State http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/67/sacred-heart/3/appalachian-state

12/03 #50 Michigan State vs #21 Drexel http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/41/michigan-state/23/drexel

12/03 #6 Nebraska vs #21 Drexel http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/45/nebraska/23/drexel

12/03 #66 Bloomsburg vs #73 George Mason http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/7/bloomsburg/29/george-mason

12/04 #49 Lock Haven vs #73 George Mason http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/38/lock-haven/29/george-mason

12/04 #47 Ohio vs #55 Buffalo http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/54/ohio/12/buffalo

12/04 #2 Penn State vs #7 Lehigh http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/60/penn-state/37/lehigh

12/04 #23 Indiana vs #60 Southern Illinois Edwardsville http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/33/indiana/69/southern-illinois-edwardsville

12/04 #1 Oklahoma State vs #25 Pittsburgh http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/57/oklahoma-state/62/pittsburgh

12/04 #23 Indiana vs #40 North Dakota State http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/33/indiana/49/north-dakota-state

12/04 #60 Southern Illinois Edwardsville vs #40 North Dakota State http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/69/southern-illinois-edwardsville/49/north-dakota-state

12/04 #37 Chattanooga vs #31 Virginia http://www.wrestlestat.com/compare/dual/16/chattanooga/73/virginia

 

[ZepGraffiti]

Does the prediction mechanism ever predict a fall? Or just point spread based?

 

[RoarLions1]

Does the prediction mechanism ever predict a fall? Or just point spread based?

Just picked Zain Retherford vs the #287 guy at 149...still predicted Tech Fall. Pretty sure that answers your question.

 

[andegre]

Does the prediction mechanism ever predict a fall? Or just point spread based?

Yes it does. Though not as often as it probably should, especially for wrestlers of Zain's level where he pins just about everyone.

That's one of those tweaks that need to be made during the offseason. I don't really want to make the changes during the season because that would then, IMO, skew the predictions from the beginning of the season. Once the season is done (actually I could START whenever), I'll go through all of the results from this year and tweak the formula to try and get closer to the actual results. The great thing is, I'm able to run the prediction engine as of any date I choose. So I can essentially process through every season in the WrestleStat database and run the prediction engine for every match, log the predicted results, and then compare those numbers with the actual.

I actually already did a post on my blog this year (I think it was after the first two weekends) where I processed all of the matches that have occurred this season (up to that point) and posted the results.

Here's that link: https://wrestlestat.wordpress.com/2016/11/17/wrestlestat-prediction-engine-results-so-far/