Wrestling is a war of attrition

[GogglesPaizano]

Given the latest this much of true:

1. Neither Cassar nor Conel were 100% in our plans last March 15th. We are now close to the lineup we thought we might have back then with the nice addition of Shak.

2. Guys like Berge, Verk, RBY maybe even Meredith may be the difference makers

3. Without further injury the worst we can do is 2nd place, I can't wait to sit back and let Cael do his magic.

4. Iowa deserves a lot of credit they have recruited PA kids exceptionally well, and filled in the roster with several AA+ transfers, and are the team to beat.

5. Iowa looks even stronger next year with PSU younger and probably at little weaker. My enthusiasm won't be curbed even one bit.

6. The pendulum swings and Iowa hasn't faced the adversity of injury for some time. Watch out it can come up and bite you in the ass at any time.

7. PSU has faced significant injuries nearly every year and perseveres:. Snacks, Cutch, Shak, Cassar, Nolf, Suriano.... And the list goes on if you want to go that far.

8. All the pressure is now on Iowa. Brands might just have an aneurysm if he doesn't manage that matside blood pressure a little.

9. Duals and Big 10s are a side show, Cael is the ultimate March wizard. Enjoy!!!!

10. My hat is off to both Cassar and Conel. Conel gave us some magic wearing another singlet. Cassar gave us the ultimate dual for the ages, and the best comeback story maybe ever. He is an NCAA champion forever!

 

[Dogwelder]

Totally! Wrestling is a war of attrition. If you don’t eat right, you won’t win!

 

[SJP80]

We all know we know (proven) we thrive in the pressure of NCAAs, semis and the like. Reality is the pressure is squarely on the fellows from Iowa and Brands right now. Let’s see how they perform. No doubt Spencer is ready for the bright lights. Not sure about DeSanto, Warner, Marinelli, etc. We will see soon enough. Can’t wait.

 

[russelscout]

2. Guys like Berge, Verk, RBY maybe even Meredith may be the difference makers

IMO, as an Iowa fan, I am most worried about how well Brooks does. I have only seen him wrestle a handful of times, but from what I have seen, thats a finalist type talent. Could he beat Bolen, Hidlay or Lujan? Absolutely. No one is beating Valencia, but if Brooks balls out, I could see a scenario where Lee, VJ, Hall, Brooks, Shak, and even RBY are scoring near or above 20 pts. Meredith and Verk are non factors in my opinion as they are looking at 2-4 points max.

 

[El-Jefe]

IMO, as an Iowa fan, I am most worried about how well Brooks does. I have only seen him wrestle a handful of times, but from what I have seen, thats a finalist type talent. Could he beat Bolen, Hidlay or Lujan? Absolutely. No one is beating Valencia, but if Brooks balls out, I could see a scenario where Lee, VJ, Hall, Brooks, Shak, and even RBY are scoring near or above 20 pts. Meredith and Verk are non factors in my opinion as they are looking at 2-4 points max.

This is very fair.

I'll just add that Pipher could be a wild card if he drops to 149 where he's certified. He's been competitive at 157 and is a monster on top -- maybe not a podium threat (though who knows at that dumpster fire weight) but a bonus point threat.

 

[russelscout]

This is very fair.

I'll just add that Pipher could be a wild card if he drops to 149 where he's certified. He's been competitive at 157 and is a monster on top -- maybe not a podium threat (though who knows at that dumpster fire weight) but a bonus point threat.

Pipher would make it more interesting. I have really only watched him at the scuffle last year.

The thing about 149 is that the top end talent is not there, but it is very deep. I would be hesitant to give any wild card type guy a shot of making it to round of 16 or having much bonus potential. Having said that, for the same reasons, Lugo scoring a lot of points is also far from guaranteed.

 

[NoVa Lion]

Pipher would make it more interesting. I have really only watched him at the scuffle last year.

The thing about 149 is that the top end talent is not there, but it is very deep. I would be hesitant to give any wild card type guy a shot of making it to round of 16 or having much bonus potential. Having said that, for the same reasons, Lugo scoring a lot of points is also far from guaranteed.

Yeah, 149 is WIDE open. Austin O'Connor is the only one that stands out to me based on previous results finishing 3rd last year as a frosh.

 

[El-Jefe]

Pipher would make it more interesting. I have really only watched him at the scuffle last year.

The thing about 149 is that the top end talent is not there, but it is very deep. I would be hesitant to give any wild card type guy a shot of making it to round of 16 or having much bonus potential. Having said that, for the same reasons, Lugo scoring a lot of points is also far from guaranteed.

I should've been more specific: Pipher is a crossface cradle specialist. He's pinned a few guys at 157 -- for example, Army's Harrman, who took Kaleb Young to OT and beat Monday and Artalona, in under a minute. Hartman is better than half of the 149 field.

So there is bonus potential, though obviously that's not the same as actual bonus. Hence wild card.

 

[russelscout]

Yeah, 149 is WIDE open. Austin O'Connor is the only one that stands out to me based on previous results finishing 3rd last year as a frosh.

Sasso and Lee are legit. I like Lugo over Lee, but not Sasso, and Lee has Sasso's number. Who even knows with Boo Lewallen. Seeds will be huge here.

 

[El-Jefe]

Sasso and Lee are legit. I like Lugo over Lee, but not Sasso, and Lee has Sasso's number. Who even knows with Boo Lewallen. Seeds will be huge here.

Will be interesting to see how Alirez looks the rest of this year. He has looked good so far, though the competition will get much tougher in conference.

His freestyle results indicate someone who could play spoiler in March.

 

[McScoreley]

Interestingly enough, this was supposed to be the originally projected situation for 2020 (except with Beard at 197 likely instead of Shakur)

The fact is, Iowa was always setup to be favorites in 2020. Losing two all timers that'll get you 53-55 points usually sets you back a little bit. Now with Ant the Champ sidelined, that pushes the total closer to 80.

We're returning 61.5 points still. Not too bad for a supposed "reloading" year.

RBY - 5.5
Lee - 16
Berge - 1.5
Shak - 3.5
Cenzo - 18
Mark - 17

 

[russelscout]

Will be interesting to see how Alirez looks the rest of this year. He has looked good so far, though the competition will get much tougher in conference.

His freestyle results indicate someone who could play spoiler in March.

He is talented, but obviously after losing to Abas you can see there will be some growing pains. At N. Colorado he is not going to get a taste for the competition that he would get in a Big10 school week in and week out to resolve some of those problems. My prediction- Low AA

I think he sees Thomsen and Lewallen soon. We will know a lot more after those. Then he will have Lewallen, Degan, Thomsen and Pohlmeyer at Big12s. Thats still only 4 matches against upper ranked guys.

 

[Dogwelder]

... No one is beating Valencia ...

Cael still has not replied to my offer to commission a 30-chinstrap headgear for use against Zahid.

 

[eddy line]

Yeah, 149 is WIDE open. Austin O'Connor is the only one that stands out to me based on previous results finishing 3rd last year as a frosh.

Lugo beat him convincingly at Midlands. Lugo is hard to score on, but O'Connor's offense was non-existent. I vaguely recall the announcer saying O'Connor was coming back from some sort of injury, so maybe that explains it.

 

[andegre]

6. The pendulum swings and Iowa hasn't faced the adversity of injury for some time. Watch out it can come up and bite you in the ass at any time.

Respectully disagree with this, here's why

2019 - Kem
2018 - Not any that had big effect on Nationals results (ie Kem getting 4th instead of 3rd)
2017 - Stoll
2016 - None, weakest team of decade though
2015 - None
2014 - Dziewa, DSJ

It sure has seemed like there's been more, but that's all I could spot checking WrestleStat rosters. Could also argue that Dziewa shouldn't count as he didn't perform to his lofty expectations based on his recruiting ranking. Obviously could go further back to McD era, etc to come up with some more.

With Penn State, it seems as though there have always been guys able to step in, that were almost just as good.
2020 - Cassar => Nevills, Conel => Shak, Shak => Brooks; But obviously 285 is the big one
2019 - None - Rasheed, Berge - dinged-up but still participated
2018 - Cortez => Lee, Nolf, but still won (similar to 2018 Clark for Iowa)
2017 - Suriano, Cortez - still got 1st because of 5 champs
2016 - None
2015 - Alton(s)?
2014 - Andrew Alton?

So, I'd say both teams have had their fair share of injuries to key positions, without a suitable replacement. The difference, though, is PSU has had the horses at the other weights to compensate, or already had a huge lead. Whereas Iowa didn't have backups to fill-in, and they were already close to being out the race at full-strength. And Cael's suppsed "punt" year where they got 5th, Iowa got 2nd with NO starters out so it didn't matter.

Long-story-short, it seems both teams have been bitten equally, though this season PSU is getting hit harder, and don't have much margin-for-error unlike prior seasons.

Edit: I realize I contradicted myself in here, can you find it? (Basically talked/researched myself out of my original line of thought...)

 

[District four]

Respectully disagree with this, here's why

2019 - Kem
2018 - Not any that had big effect on Nationals results (ie Kem getting 4th instead of 3rd)
2017 - Stoll
2016 - None, weakest team of decade though
2015 - None
2014 - Dziewa, DSJ

It sure has seemed like there's been more, but that's all I could spot checking WrestleStat rosters. Could also argue that Dziewa shouldn't count as he didn't perform to his lofty expectations based on his recruiting ranking. Obviously could go further back to McD era, etc to come up with some more.

With Penn State, it seems as though there have always been guys able to step in, that were almost just as good.
2020 - Cassar => Nevills, Conel => Shak, Shak => Brooks; But obviously 285 is the big one
2019 - None - Rasheed, Berge - dinged-up but still participated
2018 - Cortez => Lee, Nolf, but still won (similar to 2018 Clark for Iowa)
2017 - Suriano, Cortez - still got 1st because of 5 champs
2016 - None
2015 - Alton(s)?
2014 - Andrew Alton?

So, I'd say both teams have had their fair share of injuries to key positions, without a suitable replacement. The difference, though, is PSU has had the horses at the other weights to compensate, or already had a huge lead. Whereas Iowa didn't have backups to fill-in, and they were already close to being out the race at full-strength. And Cael's suppsed "punt" year where they got 5th, Iowa got 2nd with NO starters out so it didn't matter.

Long-story-short, it seems both teams have been bitten equally, though this season PSU is getting hit harder, and don't have much margin-for-error unlike prior seasons.

Edit: I realize I contradicted myself in here, can you find it? (Basically talked/researched myself out of my original line of thought...)

You lost me at respectfully lol

 

[Dogwelder]

... Edit: I realize I contradicted myself in here, can you find it? ...

Is it that you said you contradicted yourself but you actually did not? Very subtle!!

 

[andegre]

Is it that you said you contradicted yourself but you actually did not? Very subtle!!

Lol, no, these 2 parts:

With Penn State, it seems as though there have always been guys able to step in, that were almost just as good

Then this:

So, I'd say both teams have had their fair share of injuries to key positions, without a suitable replacement.