Through nine weeks of the college football season, the College Football Playoff picture continues to crystalize. The top four teams in the country — No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 LSU, No. 3 Ohio State and No. 4 Clemson — are all undefeated and obvious CFP contenders. But what about the rest of the field?
A few teams like No. 8 Notre Dame and No. 9 Auburn suffered their second losses on Saturday, pretty much sealing their CFP fate. But there are a bunch of other teams still in the mix. Below we’ve broken down the teams we think are legitimately in contention for a CFP berth and the teams that will soon fade from the pack.
No. 5 Oklahoma: CONTENDER
Oklahoma deserves to tumble in the rankings after losing to Kansas State on Saturday, but it is still a College Football Playoff contender. After all, the Sooners made it to the playoff with a regular season loss the last two seasons. In 2017, OU lost to Iowa State in early October before winning out. Last year it was a loss to Texas that briefly got the Sooners off track, but they still ended up as the No. 4 seed. There’s no reason to think the 2019 Sooners cannot do the same.
No. 6 Penn State: CONTENDER
At this point in the season, you have to consider Penn State a contender. The Nittany Lions improved to 8-0 by grinding out another Big Ten victory. This time, it was a 28-7 road decision over Michigan State. Wins at No. 17 Iowa and at home against No. 16 Michigan preceded Saturday’s victory, putting two ranked victories on PSU’s resume.
Penn State now gets a week off before the home stretch of the season, beginning with a trip to play undefeated Minnesota. But the game we’ve all got circled on Penn State’s schedule is the Nov. 23 trip to face No. 3 Ohio State. The winner will likely be the Big Ten East champion and the loser could ultimately on the outside looking in from the College Football Playoff.
No. 7 Florida: PRETENDER
With a loss to LSU under its belt, Florida has no margin for error the rest of the way. The 7-1 Gators had a bye this weekend with the cocktail party against No. 10 Georgia looming next Saturday. The winner of that game assumes the position of favorite in the SEC East; the loser has two losses and will be all but eliminated from playoff contention.
If Florida gets past Georgia, the rest of the regular season schedule — vs. Vanderbilt, at Missouri, vs. Florida State — is manageable. If the Gators get through that stretch unscathed and win the East, either a rematch with LSU or a meeting with Alabama looms. The Gators will be heavy underdogs against either of those teams, even though the game will be played on a neutral site in Atlanta. It’s hard to envision this Florida team winning five straight and reaching the playoff.
No. 10 Georgia: PRETENDER
The loss to South Carolina and last weekend’s rain-soaked win over Kentucky showed that Georgia has some serious issues to sort through on offense. Perhaps this off week gave Kirby Smart and his staff the requisite time to get things straightened out. If the Bulldogs come out next week in Jacksonville and smoke Florida, will we look at them like we did earlier in the year when most considered UGA the top competition to Alabama in the SEC?
Beyond Florida, Georgia still has Missouri, Auburn and Texas A&M remaining on its schedule. If the offense doesn’t take some significant steps forward, it’s hard to envision the Bulldogs making a serious run to the CFP. Even if Georgia manages to win the rest of its regular season games, do you see the Bulldogs putting up a serious fight against the SEC West champion? Based on what we’ve seen lately, it’s hard to make that leap.
No. 11 Oregon: CONTENDER
With a last-second field goal, Oregon defeated Washington State 37-35 at home on Saturday for its seventh straight victory. The Ducks are undefeated in Pac-12 play and will be favored in every game the rest of the regular season, starting next weekend with a trip to USC. Following a bye, Oregon rounds out its schedule with Arizona at home, Arizona State on the road and Oregon State at home.
USC and Arizona State won’t be easy, but if Oregon gets through the rest of the regular season without a loss and wins the Pac-12 title game — particularly over a quality team like Utah — the Ducks are going to have a legitimate CFP argument.
Larry Scott and the Pac-12 have not beaten the drum for expansion to this point in the CFP’s existence. But what happens if a Pac-12 champion Oregon team with only a last-second loss to Auburn on its schedule gets left out? That’s going to be a tough pill for the conference to swallow, especially if Auburn wins a few of the difficult SEC games remaining on its schedule.
No. 12 Utah: PRETENDER
Utah has been cruising since its Week 4 loss at USC. Saturday night’s 35-0 win over Cal was its fourth straight victory. The Utes are essentially in the same position as Oregon: get through the rest of the regular season unscathed, win the conference title game and you’ve got an argument. But it won’t be as good of an argument as Oregon. A road defeat to three-loss USC will not be viewed the same as a neutral-site, last-second loss to Auburn. It just won’t be.
No. 14 Baylor: CONTENDER
When Oklahoma and Baylor meet in Waco on Nov. 16, it figures to be the biggest regular season Big 12 game of the year. Before that, the unbeaten Bears (who had a bye this weekend) will host a below average West Virginia team and face TCU on the road.
The expectation that Baylor wins both of those games moves it into contender category. Baylor would be 9-0 at that point with Oklahoma coming to McLane Stadium. Even with a loss there, Baylor would be in position for a potential rematch in the Big 12 title game. Like Oklahoma, Baylor could find itself as a one-loss Big 12 champion ready to be stacked up against several others for a CFP spot.
No. 17 Minnesota: PRETENDER
Minnesota deserves a lot of credit for starting the season 8-0, but the Gophers have played just one FBS team with a winning record: Georgia Southern (4-3). That’s it. Before we can label the Gophers as legitimate contenders, they have to play at least one good team. That will happen after next week’s bye when fellow unbeaten Penn State visits TCF Bank Stadium. With a win there, Minnesota will be taken seriously.
A few teams like No. 8 Notre Dame and No. 9 Auburn suffered their second losses on Saturday, pretty much sealing their CFP fate. But there are a bunch of other teams still in the mix. Below we’ve broken down the teams we think are legitimately in contention for a CFP berth and the teams that will soon fade from the pack.
No. 5 Oklahoma: CONTENDER
Oklahoma deserves to tumble in the rankings after losing to Kansas State on Saturday, but it is still a College Football Playoff contender. After all, the Sooners made it to the playoff with a regular season loss the last two seasons. In 2017, OU lost to Iowa State in early October before winning out. Last year it was a loss to Texas that briefly got the Sooners off track, but they still ended up as the No. 4 seed. There’s no reason to think the 2019 Sooners cannot do the same.
No. 6 Penn State: CONTENDER
At this point in the season, you have to consider Penn State a contender. The Nittany Lions improved to 8-0 by grinding out another Big Ten victory. This time, it was a 28-7 road decision over Michigan State. Wins at No. 17 Iowa and at home against No. 16 Michigan preceded Saturday’s victory, putting two ranked victories on PSU’s resume.
Penn State now gets a week off before the home stretch of the season, beginning with a trip to play undefeated Minnesota. But the game we’ve all got circled on Penn State’s schedule is the Nov. 23 trip to face No. 3 Ohio State. The winner will likely be the Big Ten East champion and the loser could ultimately on the outside looking in from the College Football Playoff.
No. 7 Florida: PRETENDER
With a loss to LSU under its belt, Florida has no margin for error the rest of the way. The 7-1 Gators had a bye this weekend with the cocktail party against No. 10 Georgia looming next Saturday. The winner of that game assumes the position of favorite in the SEC East; the loser has two losses and will be all but eliminated from playoff contention.
If Florida gets past Georgia, the rest of the regular season schedule — vs. Vanderbilt, at Missouri, vs. Florida State — is manageable. If the Gators get through that stretch unscathed and win the East, either a rematch with LSU or a meeting with Alabama looms. The Gators will be heavy underdogs against either of those teams, even though the game will be played on a neutral site in Atlanta. It’s hard to envision this Florida team winning five straight and reaching the playoff.
No. 10 Georgia: PRETENDER
The loss to South Carolina and last weekend’s rain-soaked win over Kentucky showed that Georgia has some serious issues to sort through on offense. Perhaps this off week gave Kirby Smart and his staff the requisite time to get things straightened out. If the Bulldogs come out next week in Jacksonville and smoke Florida, will we look at them like we did earlier in the year when most considered UGA the top competition to Alabama in the SEC?
Beyond Florida, Georgia still has Missouri, Auburn and Texas A&M remaining on its schedule. If the offense doesn’t take some significant steps forward, it’s hard to envision the Bulldogs making a serious run to the CFP. Even if Georgia manages to win the rest of its regular season games, do you see the Bulldogs putting up a serious fight against the SEC West champion? Based on what we’ve seen lately, it’s hard to make that leap.
No. 11 Oregon: CONTENDER
With a last-second field goal, Oregon defeated Washington State 37-35 at home on Saturday for its seventh straight victory. The Ducks are undefeated in Pac-12 play and will be favored in every game the rest of the regular season, starting next weekend with a trip to USC. Following a bye, Oregon rounds out its schedule with Arizona at home, Arizona State on the road and Oregon State at home.
USC and Arizona State won’t be easy, but if Oregon gets through the rest of the regular season without a loss and wins the Pac-12 title game — particularly over a quality team like Utah — the Ducks are going to have a legitimate CFP argument.
Larry Scott and the Pac-12 have not beaten the drum for expansion to this point in the CFP’s existence. But what happens if a Pac-12 champion Oregon team with only a last-second loss to Auburn on its schedule gets left out? That’s going to be a tough pill for the conference to swallow, especially if Auburn wins a few of the difficult SEC games remaining on its schedule.
No. 12 Utah: PRETENDER
Utah has been cruising since its Week 4 loss at USC. Saturday night’s 35-0 win over Cal was its fourth straight victory. The Utes are essentially in the same position as Oregon: get through the rest of the regular season unscathed, win the conference title game and you’ve got an argument. But it won’t be as good of an argument as Oregon. A road defeat to three-loss USC will not be viewed the same as a neutral-site, last-second loss to Auburn. It just won’t be.
No. 14 Baylor: CONTENDER
When Oklahoma and Baylor meet in Waco on Nov. 16, it figures to be the biggest regular season Big 12 game of the year. Before that, the unbeaten Bears (who had a bye this weekend) will host a below average West Virginia team and face TCU on the road.
The expectation that Baylor wins both of those games moves it into contender category. Baylor would be 9-0 at that point with Oklahoma coming to McLane Stadium. Even with a loss there, Baylor would be in position for a potential rematch in the Big 12 title game. Like Oklahoma, Baylor could find itself as a one-loss Big 12 champion ready to be stacked up against several others for a CFP spot.
No. 17 Minnesota: PRETENDER
Minnesota deserves a lot of credit for starting the season 8-0, but the Gophers have played just one FBS team with a winning record: Georgia Southern (4-3). That’s it. Before we can label the Gophers as legitimate contenders, they have to play at least one good team. That will happen after next week’s bye when fellow unbeaten Penn State visits TCF Bank Stadium. With a win there, Minnesota will be taken seriously.
