Alright today is the big day. Lots of big games that will determine the next months schedule. Here are some rooting interests today and their impact on our bowl placement.
If you want to go to the Fiesta Bowl the easiest pathway is all 4 teams in the top 4 win today especially Wisconsin. If Penn State, Ohio State and Alabama are left out of the playoff then it is very likely that we will be facing a rematch in the desert against USC.
If you want to go to the Cotton Bowl the easiest pathway is Ohio state beating Wisconsin. It is likely that the Cotton Bowl would not take Wisconsin in back to back years and we would be selected. Wisconsin would go to Fiesta. In this scenario two things can happen. Ohio state could make the playoff or not. If they jump Alabama for the playoff then Bama goes to Orange. If Bama takes Wisconsins spot in the palyoff then Ohio State would most likely finish 5th in the rankings and go to Orange. We would still go to Cotton most likely.
If you want to go to Miami for the Orange Bowl then you need Ohio State to Beat Wisconsin & TCU to beat Oklahoma. In this scenario you need the committee to select Ohio State and Alabama for the playoff. PSU would most likely be the highest SEC, Big Ten or ND team and go to the Orange Bowl. This scenario would have the committee screwing over the Big12 champ and sending both TCU and Oklahoma in as at larges into the NY6. If that plays out I would expect Wisconsin vs TCU In the Cotton, Oklahoma to Fiesta. I think UGA and Auburn no matter what the loser goes to Peach due to proximity and plays UCF.
NOW
Here's what happens if its upsets everywhere and they are close
Miami beats clemson by 1
Georgia beats Auburn
TCU beats Oklahoma
Ohio state beats Wisconsin
It is theoretically possible that the case would be made for Clemson to remain in the top 4 with a super close loss to Miami.
I would see the playoff working out maybe like this
1 UGA
2 Miami
3 Alabama
4 Clemson
I think Ohio State could be left out like PSU was last year.
So in this scenario the Orange Bowl has to take the highest ranked ACC team. That would be Virginia Tech. Ohio State would play Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl.
If Ohio State is selected for the playoff over Bama then VaTech would play Bama in the Orange. That is worst case scenario for Orange Bowl. They will not be happy. For a while I thought that VaTech wouldn't be eligible because they aren't in top 16. I found out that is not the case. They would be selected because the ACC has to place a team in the Orange Bowl. If a B1G team is selected in the Orange Bowl then the B1G surrenders its spot in the Citrus Bowl to an ACC team. So that will alter the rest of the B1G bowls below us.
Again Cotton and Fiesta is most likely. I'll be rooting for Cotton because I live in Texas.
Hoping for a fun day of football. Bowls are decided tomorrow.
If you want to go to the Fiesta Bowl the easiest pathway is all 4 teams in the top 4 win today especially Wisconsin. If Penn State, Ohio State and Alabama are left out of the playoff then it is very likely that we will be facing a rematch in the desert against USC.
If you want to go to the Cotton Bowl the easiest pathway is Ohio state beating Wisconsin. It is likely that the Cotton Bowl would not take Wisconsin in back to back years and we would be selected. Wisconsin would go to Fiesta. In this scenario two things can happen. Ohio state could make the playoff or not. If they jump Alabama for the playoff then Bama goes to Orange. If Bama takes Wisconsins spot in the palyoff then Ohio State would most likely finish 5th in the rankings and go to Orange. We would still go to Cotton most likely.
If you want to go to Miami for the Orange Bowl then you need Ohio State to Beat Wisconsin & TCU to beat Oklahoma. In this scenario you need the committee to select Ohio State and Alabama for the playoff. PSU would most likely be the highest SEC, Big Ten or ND team and go to the Orange Bowl. This scenario would have the committee screwing over the Big12 champ and sending both TCU and Oklahoma in as at larges into the NY6. If that plays out I would expect Wisconsin vs TCU In the Cotton, Oklahoma to Fiesta. I think UGA and Auburn no matter what the loser goes to Peach due to proximity and plays UCF.
NOW
Here's what happens if its upsets everywhere and they are close
Miami beats clemson by 1
Georgia beats Auburn
TCU beats Oklahoma
Ohio state beats Wisconsin
It is theoretically possible that the case would be made for Clemson to remain in the top 4 with a super close loss to Miami.
I would see the playoff working out maybe like this
1 UGA
2 Miami
3 Alabama
4 Clemson
I think Ohio State could be left out like PSU was last year.
So in this scenario the Orange Bowl has to take the highest ranked ACC team. That would be Virginia Tech. Ohio State would play Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl.
If Ohio State is selected for the playoff over Bama then VaTech would play Bama in the Orange. That is worst case scenario for Orange Bowl. They will not be happy. For a while I thought that VaTech wouldn't be eligible because they aren't in top 16. I found out that is not the case. They would be selected because the ACC has to place a team in the Orange Bowl. If a B1G team is selected in the Orange Bowl then the B1G surrenders its spot in the Citrus Bowl to an ACC team. So that will alter the rest of the B1G bowls below us.
Again Cotton and Fiesta is most likely. I'll be rooting for Cotton because I live in Texas.
Hoping for a fun day of football. Bowls are decided tomorrow.
