ADVERTISEMENT

You're never as good as you think you are when you win...

ChiTownLion

ChiTownLion

Well-Known Member
May 29, 2001
37,750
50,521
1
...so keep expectations in check, but...

Here is Penn State’s remaining schedule along with the win probability, courtesy of the FPI:
  • Sept. 7 vs Buffalo: 98.9%
  • Sept. 14 vs Pittsburgh: 94.1%
  • Sept. 27 @ Maryland: 79.2%
  • Oct. 5 vs Purdue: 94.8%
  • Oct. 12 @ Iowa: 71.0%
  • Oct. 19 vs Michigan: 65.1%
  • Oct. 26 @ Michigan State: 64.3%
  • Nov. 9 @ Minnesota: 78.3%
  • Nov. 16 vs Indiana: 91.3%
  • Nov. 23 @ Ohio State: 62.3%
  • Nov. 30 vs Rutgers: 97.0%
Penn State also has the best odds to win the conference at 37.5. Michigan is the next closest at 22.6.

https://saturdaytradition.com/penn-...dicts-outcome-of-penn-states-remaining-games/
 
  • Like
Reactions: PSUIceman, NittanyLion15, Ranger Dan and 1 other person
The updated SP+ comes out today, too, and I’d expect for us to be right around the top ten there.

Something to note: this early in the season, these rankings still are heavily weighted in favor of their preseason projections, which are pretty much just a combination of returning production and recruiting. The rankings will begin to weight actual 2019 games more and more each week. That said, I would be surprised if any team got as much as a week 1 “bump” as we did given our performance - even adjusted for opponent - against Idaho.
 
psuro said:
Interesting predictions on Mich, OSU and MSU. I honestly expected no better than 50%.
Click to expand...
Same here!

We won't know very much about this team until it gets challenged. I love the hunger and the swagger. I also like that with all the young talent getting their feet wet, this team should get better as the season progresses. Franklin has to keep them grounded and stay grounded himself.

PSU football could be about to make that leap Franklin talked about after the OSU game last year. It'd be a great story if it happens!
 
Penn State
Chances of winning out - 7.3%
Chances of winning conference - 37.8%

Michigan
Chances of winning out - 1.9%
Chances of winning conference - 22.9%

Ohio State
Chances of winning out - 0.5%
Chances of winning conference - 8.1%

Wisconsin
Chances of winning out - 0.4%
Chances of winning conference - 12.2%
 
  • Like
Reactions: PSUinCali
ForesterGump said:
Penn State
Chances of winning out - 7.3%
Chances of winning conference - 37.8%

Michigan
Chances of winning out - 1.9%
Chances of winning conference - 22.9%

Ohio State
Chances of winning out - 0.5%
Chances of winning conference - 8.1%

Wisconsin
Chances of winning out - 0.4%
Chances of winning conference - 12.2%
Click to expand...
That's not what Wan-douche says.

 
  • Like
Reactions: Judge Smails
It boils down to Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State. Win 2 out of 3 of those and we're looking at a BCS final 4.
 
Surprised to see FPI have Wisconsin that low, computer must think that USF is really bad. Honestly any of these computer rankings dont mean squat until maybe week 4 or 5. Not enough data points yet to make a strong case.

(unless you are Tennessee :))
 
fastlax16 said:
My buddy noticed the stache across the street from us on our way to some bars Sunday night. Was walking alone in a buccaneers jacket smoking a cigar. Tried to get his attention but he pretended to not hear us.
Click to expand...
You need to carry a dozen eggs in your pockets for such instances. Maybe that would get his attention.
You know, you might mess up his Buccaneer jacket. :eek:
 
PearlSUJam said:
You need to carry a dozen eggs in your pockets for such instances. Maybe that would get his attention.
You know, you might mess up his Buccaneer jacket. :eek:
Click to expand...

Looks like he lives a couple of blocks away from me in downtown Chicago. Pretty sure I looked at a condo in his building last year based on the looks of things. Missed opportunity.
 
  • Like
Reactions: PearlSUJam
stormingnorm said:
Here's a good way to determine whether or not one should place any value in that "FPI" stuff at this stage.


1) Look at what the FPI said BEFORE the opening games.
2) Look at what the FPI says AFTER nothing but a week of dogmeat payday games for the upper level teams.
3) If there be any significant difference between "1)" and "2)", you know the "FPI Thing" - at this stage of the season - ain't worth twice-recycled pig shit.
Click to expand...
Fair point, but at least it is now based on one (albeit cupcake) game instead of zero games. :)
 
At least we're not as bad as we'd think we were if we lost! For me there is very little take away from Idaho. I don't think Buffalo and Pitt will tell a whole lot either, other than the fact that they aren't at all on our level. MD will be interesting and fun!
 
  • Like
Reactions: Ski
Too early to tell. Player availability, weather, intangibles, etc.
I will say I like our depth. We have lost games in the 4th quarter the past couple of seasons that we should have won, and maybe our depth starts changing that this season.
 
  • Like
Reactions: psu00
I know many here think early season polls/rankings aren't worth squat right now, and I'd agree...if you're using them to assess who's better than who or how good/bad a team is/will be because how can anyone tell anything after just one game. Right? Right! However, I'd argue - and probably will have to - that these early season rankings/polls are important for the simple reason that the teams chosen for the BCS playoff are selected by humans and, like it or not, there is always an inherent element of subjectivity when people make decisions. Therefore, the more positive coverage a team gets over the course of the season, the more favorably that team will be perceived when compared to a team with a similar schedule/record but viewed (rightly or wrongly) as having underachieved due to less favorable media coverage (both in quantity and quality). It may not be fair, but it happens.*

* See 2016, 1994 Penn State football seasons
 
  • Like
Reactions: psu00
It’s too early to really know anything about team rankings after week 1 IMO. I suspect many of these computer rankings will bounce around a lot in the next few weeks.

PSU looked really good but, with all respect to Idaho, they were just totally overmatched.

The concern for the next 2 weeks of OOC play is that PSU gets too overconfident after the 72 point win and the good press. Not too long ago a pretty good PSU team beat Cincinnati 81-0 then lost the following week to a USC team that ended the year unranked at 3-8. College football is funny that way.
 
  • Like
Reactions: indynittany and Mixolydian
ChiTownLion said:
...so keep expectations in check, but...

Here is Penn State’s remaining schedule along with the win probability, courtesy of the FPI:
  • Sept. 7 vs Buffalo: 98.9%
  • Sept. 14 vs Pittsburgh: 94.1%
  • Sept. 27 @ Maryland: 79.2%
  • Oct. 5 vs Purdue: 94.8%
  • Oct. 12 @ Iowa: 71.0%
  • Oct. 19 vs Michigan: 65.1%
  • Oct. 26 @ Michigan State: 64.3%
  • Nov. 9 @ Minnesota: 78.3%
  • Nov. 16 vs Indiana: 91.3%
  • Nov. 23 @ Ohio State: 62.3%
  • Nov. 30 vs Rutgers: 97.0%
Penn State also has the best odds to win the conference at 37.5. Michigan is the next closest at 22.6.

https://saturdaytradition.com/penn-...dicts-outcome-of-penn-states-remaining-games/
Click to expand...

All this after one game against a really lousy over-matched team, when beforehand- no one was quite sure about them. Now they are favored in every game. Love it.
 
ChiTownLion said:
...so keep expectations in check, but...

Here is Penn State’s remaining schedule along with the win probability, courtesy of the FPI:
  • Sept. 7 vs Buffalo: 98.9%
  • Sept. 14 vs Pittsburgh: 94.1%
  • Sept. 27 @ Maryland: 79.2%
  • Oct. 5 vs Purdue: 94.8%
  • Oct. 12 @ Iowa: 71.0%
  • Oct. 19 vs Michigan: 65.1%
  • Oct. 26 @ Michigan State: 64.3%
  • Nov. 9 @ Minnesota: 78.3%
  • Nov. 16 vs Indiana: 91.3%
  • Nov. 23 @ Ohio State: 62.3%
  • Nov. 30 vs Rutgers: 97.0%
Penn State also has the best odds to win the conference at 37.5. Michigan is the next closest at 22.6.

https://saturdaytradition.com/penn-...dicts-outcome-of-penn-states-remaining-games/
Click to expand...
Imagine what the probabilities were for us in 2016 before tOSU.
 
ouirpsu said:
I know many here think early season polls/rankings aren't worth squat right now, and I'd agree...if you're using them to assess who's better than who or how good/bad a team is/will be because how can anyone tell anything after just one game. Right? Right! However, I'd argue - and probably will have to - that these early season rankings/polls are important for the simple reason that the teams chosen for the BCS playoff are selected by humans and, like it or not, there is always an inherent element of subjectivity when people make decisions. Therefore, the more positive coverage a team gets over the course of the season, the more favorably that team will be perceived when compared to a team with a similar schedule/record but viewed (rightly or wrongly) as having underachieved due to less favorable media coverage (both in quantity and quality). It may not be fair, but it happens.*

* See 2016, 1994 Penn State football seasons
Click to expand...
Exactly. College football is all about perception and rankings play a huge role in perception. An early season win against a highly ranked team (even if that ranked team ends the season without being ranked) carries more weight than a win over a team that was never ranked. Case in point, Bama’s win over #3 FSU on opening day in 2017 carried more weight all year than Ohio State’s win over eventual 10-3 team Army even though FSU ended up being pretty bad that year (and they’re still bad).
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
ADVERTISEMENT

Latest posts

ADVERTISEMENT
Top Bottom
Back