165 this season

[wrestlingfan22]

This weekend saw lots of 165lb action and 165 looks like a mess to rank/seed at this point in the year.
Clear #1 is KOT
After that it gets complicated, going into today Intermat had it
2. Olejnik (Wins over Heller, Amine and Ramirez, and in All-Star match Hamiti)
3. Ramirez (Wins over Carr and Heller)
4. Carr (Wins over Amine, Heller, Hamiti, Caliendo + he's David Carr)
5. Amine (Pedigree alone)
6.Hamiti ( Wins over Hall and Fish)
7. Caliendo (Win over teammate PK+ Pedigree)
8. Heller (Pedigree)
9. Hall (Win over fish +Pedigree)
10. Messenbrink (Win over teammate TB + TF over #13 Olguin + he looks so good)
11. Fish (Pedigree+ win over #12 Thompson)

But today #9 Hall beat # 2 Olejnik and #11 Fish beat #5 Amine. Only undefeated guys are KOT and MM.
How do we think the rankings should shake out?
Personally I would have it
1. KOT
2. Carr
3. MM
4. Ramirez
5. Olejnik
6. Hamiti
7. Hall
8. Caliendo
9. Fish
10. Amine
11. Heller
But anywhere between 2-10 can be mixed around with at least some reasonable argument

 

[AndEEss]

If Amine doesn’t duck MM, he gets smashed.

MM will move into the top 4.

 

[El-Jefe]

This weekend saw lots of 165lb action and 165 looks like a mess to rank/seed at this point in the year.
Clear #1 is KOT
After that it gets complicated, going into today Intermat had it
2. Olejnik (Wins over Heller, Amine and Ramirez, and in All-Star match Hamiti)
3. Ramirez (Wins over Carr and Heller)
4. Carr (Wins over Amine, Heller, Hamiti, Caliendo + he's David Carr)
5. Amine (Pedigree alone)
6.Hamiti ( Wins over Hall and Fish)
7. Caliendo (Win over teammate PK+ Pedigree)
8. Heller (Pedigree)
9. Hall (Win over fish +Pedigree)
10. Messenbrink (Win over teammate TB + TF over #13 Olguin + he looks so good)
11. Fish (Pedigree+ win over #12 Thompson)

But today #9 Hall beat # 2 Olejnik and #11 Fish beat #5 Amine. Only undefeated guys are KOT and MM.
How do we think the rankings should shake out?
Personally I would have it
1. KOT
2. Carr
3. MM
4. Ramirez
5. Olejnik
6. Hamiti
7. Hall
8. Caliendo
9. Fish
10. Amine
11. Heller
But anywhere between 2-10 can be mixed around with at least some reasonable argument

If they both win out, Ramirez will likely get seeded ahead of Psycho. Using NCAA seeding criteria, Ramirez will win Coaches' Rank, and probably Quality Wins and RPI. Psycho will win Win %.

They might both get seeded ahead of Carr, assuming Carr loses both matches (or at least B12s) to O'Toole. They'd both have Win % and Conference Finish. Ramirez would win H2H. Tough to tell about Quality Wins and RPI, and who knows how the coaches' interns will vote.

 

[billrag]

If they both win out, Ramirez will likely get seeded ahead of Psycho. Using NCAA seeding criteria, Ramirez will win Coaches' Rank, and probably Quality Wins and RPI. Psycho will win Win %.

They might both get seeded ahead of Carr, assuming Carr loses both matches (or at least B12s) to O'Toole. They'd both have Win % and Conference Finish. Ramirez would win H2H. Tough to tell about Quality Wins and RPI, and who knows how the coaches' interns will vote.

And I'd be fine with that scenario playing out. Give KOT the #1, Ramirez the #2, MM #3 and Carr #4. I like the match-up against Ramirez better than Carr or O'Toole and like Mesenbrink's chances to get to the finals that way.

 

[Random4598375]

Personally I would have it
1. KOT
2. Carr
3. MM
4. Ramirez
5. Olejnik
6. Hamiti
7. Hall
8. Caliendo
9. Fish
10. Amine
11. Heller
But anywhere between 2-10 can be mixed around with at least some reasonable argument

This is fairly accurate for what I would call the “true ranking” (i.e. if you just asked people to rank them on who is the best, this would be the consensus). I would probably have Caliendo a little higher. NCAA seeding depends on the silly criteria, so will probably be different. I won’t put MM ahead of either Carr or KOT until I see him beat them, but he’s looking like the best of everyone else. We’ll see with matches against Amine and Caliendo coming up and Hamiti in the B1Gs.

 

[El-Jefe]

And I'd be fine with that scenario playing out. Give KOT the #1, Ramirez the #2, MM #3 and Carr #4. I like the match-up against Ramirez better than Carr or O'Toole and like Mesenbrink's chances to get to the finals that way.

Actually, I'll take back what I said above -- I did not check their respective schedules. Ramirez has an easy remaining schedule with one big exception: O'Toole on 1/28.

This might give Psycho the Coaches' Rank and conceivably RPI, and move him to the 2 seed.

But the risk is: Carr needs to lose at least B12s to O'Toole, and preferably both. Otherwise Psycho is likely to face one of them in the semis. Even a split is risky -- Carr would lose H2H and Conference Finish to Ramirez but would likely win Coaches' Rank, Common Opponents, Quality Wins, and RPI.

 

[wrestlingfan22]

Actually, I'll take back what I said above -- I did not check their respective schedules. Ramirez has an easy remaining schedule with one big exception: O'Toole on 1/28.

This might give Psycho the Coaches' Rank and conceivably RPI, and move him to the 2 seed.

But the risk is: Carr needs to lose at least B12s to O'Toole, and preferably both. Otherwise Psycho is likely to face one of them in the semis. Even a split is risky -- Carr would lose H2H and Conference Finish to Ramirez but would likely win Coaches' Rank, Common Opponents, Quality Wins, and RPI.

Counting on Carr to lose both to KOT is risky, and I feel like Olejnik+Hall also being in the B12 is going to mess with seeding criteria/h2h somehow. Also I could see Ramirez ducking KOT

 

[El-Jefe]

I should add: if Carr wins B12s, he's the 1 seed regardless of the dual result. He would win Coaches Rank, Quality Wins, and RPI; Psycho would get Win %.

O'Toole would not necessarily be seeded ahead of Ramirez if he loses either match to Carr. If Ramirez wins their dual (unlikely but still), he would be seeded higher. If Grey ducks him, then it gets mathematically complicated.

TL;DR: 165 seeding is very unsettled. Next gate is the 1/28 Missouri-Cornell dual. Next after that is 2/25 Missouri-Iowa State. We might not have a great idea until conference tourneys.

 

[El-Jefe]

Counting on Carr to lose both to KOT is risky, and I feel like Olejnik+Hall also being in the B12 is going to mess with seeding criteria/h2h somehow. Also I could see Ramirez ducking KOT

I don't think Olejnik/Hall will beat O'Toole or Carr.

I do think both are good enough to swing Quality Wins and RPI toward O'Toole and Carr.

 

[wrestlingfan22]

I don't think Olejnik/Hall will beat O'Toole or Carr.

I do think both are good enough to swing Quality Wins and RPI toward O'Toole and Carr.

I agree

 

[GogglesPaizano]

I think KOT goes undefeated to nationals. As much as I like Carr, Keegan is just getting better and better. Thus unless, Mitch takes a loss into nationals, which I am starting to doubt, he will likely face Carr in the semis then Keegan for all the marbles. What a testament for AWA. No predictions until I see MM get through bigs, but I like what I am seeing, a lot.



"I like it" and I am not snorting anything

 

[Callthestall]

We will know a lot more about MM after Big 10 tourney. Such as his weight cut ??, and they'll be a little more known about his style and tendencies. He certainly looks like he has a great motor and is awesome on his feet.

 

[tullfan68]

We will know a lot more about MM after Big 10 tourney. Such as his weight cut ??, and they'll be a little more known about his style and tendencies. He certainly looks like he has a great motor and is awesome on his feet.

MM has no tendencies he just goes like crazy and makes it up as he goes!

 

[Kale_yeah]

I'll wait until he beats a top 7 guy, this Friday will be a great test and Sunday will not be a good match-up for him ,fish is a very strong wrestler.

 

[johnstownsteel]

We will know a lot more about MM after Big 10 tourney. Such as his weight cut ??, and they'll be a little more known about his style and tendencies. He certainly looks like he has a great motor and is awesome on his feet.

MM said in preseason he could go 157 if Cael wanted him to. Even Ben couldn't say which weight he'd go so I dont think he cuts much.

 

[johnstownsteel]

Ben talking Mess/Keegan on FRL now. He just won't make a call on it tho... lol

 

[johnstownsteel]

Ben said it won't come down to top or bottom. Gonna come down to scrambles and finishing.

 

[AndEEss]

MM said in preseason he could go 157 if Cael wanted him to. Even Ben couldn't say which weight he'd go so I dont think he cuts much.

He certified at less than 165lbs. Even if he’s lifting a lot, it’s hard to gain mass while putting in the work necessary to maintain that motor.

 

[Psubiomed]

The only thing we find out about MM this week is how afraid everyone is of him: Fully expect Amine to duck him, maybe Fish too.

 

[Pitchfork Rebel]

MM on the last day in March..

 

[McScoreley]

Mesenbrink is one of those insanely functionally strong pound for pound athletes. Olguin is considered a huge 165 and it didn't seem to help him. Like Bo Nickal or Nick Lee who don't look like they need to lift weights but outmuscle much stronger looking guys and the domination is exacerbated by a seemingly unlimited gas tank. For example, Nick Lee said he's probably around 145 usually and even if the offseason, he never got over 150. Bo was walking around at low 190s the year he ragdolled 197s.

 

[PSU James]

Who is Psycho a name for?

 

[johnstownsteel]

Who is Psycho a name for?

Carter called Mitch that.

 

[McScoreley]

If Carter Starocci calls you a psycho, that is truly terrifying

 

[Cstroke]

 

[nerfstate]

Spolier alert, it's pretty much a nothingburger:

 

[GogglesPaizano]

Zain vs Steiber?

 

[STAND with PRIDE]

Zain vs Steiber?

Sure, why not

 

[RB-Old]

Being a PSU fan I'm biased as hell but I don't see Carr or Ramirez having enough to beat MM. As long as he's not on the same side as KOT I really like his chances to be wrestling Saturday night. KOT will be tough because of the familiarity.

 

[creamery freak]

If Amine doesn’t duck MM, he gets smashed.

MM will move into the top 4.

Good call. What a joy Mitch is to watch. People will be tuning into watching Mitch just like Jason and Bo. This year's going to be fun!

 

[Random4598375]

Good call. What a joy Mitch is to watch. People will be tuning into watching Mitch just like Jason and Bo. This year's going to be fun!

For as much as he’s putting on a show and destroying the field, he has the two Hodge front runners in the next three guys following him. How fearsome is that lineup?

 

[RB-Old]

MM said in preseason he could go 157 if Cael wanted him to. Even Ben couldn't say which weight he'd go so I dont think he cuts much.

If he were to swap with Levi I don't think it would be crazy to think he could be a 4 timer and possibly undefeated. Nobody at 157 would touch him but 165 is the toughest weight in the country.

 

[NitFan53]

If he were to swap with Levi I don't think it would be crazy to think he could be a 4 timer and possibly undefeated. Nobody at 157 would touch him but 165 is the toughest weight in the country.

I would love to see him wrestle Lewan. I think he would stall him out by the end of the 2nd period.

 

[El-Jefe]

I would love to see him wrestle Lewan. I think he would stall him out by the end of the 2nd period.

I'd be OK with never seeing Lewan again.

 

[STAND with PRIDE]

Got a look at Hamiti yesterday. He aint gonna roll over for any of these guys, he has to be in the conversation.

 

[Random4598375]

Got a look at Hamiti yesterday. He aint gonna roll over for any of these guys, he has to be in the conversation.

At this point, I think MM should be ranked 4 below KOT, Carr, and Hamiti. He'll get a shot at Hamiti in B1Gs and the other two at nationals.

 

[Diego Badman]

I'd be OK with never seeing Lewan again.

Agree on Lewan, but I have an observation/question about Amine and his endurance Friday night. The match began at 157, and it is obvious that Amine gassed. You could make a case that it was all MM's pace, but I have to wonder if Amine did not get the time to recover from a weight cut.

 

[Pitchfork Rebel]

If Carter Starocci calls you a psycho, that is truly terrifying

Not for us!

 

[El-Jefe]

Agree on Lewan, but I have an observation/question about Amine and his endurance Friday night. The match began at 157, and it is obvious that Amine gassed. You could make a case that it was all MM's pace, but I have to wonder if Amine did not get the time to recover from a weight cut.

Maybe, but now weigh-ins are 2 hrs before the match. So if he gassed from a cut, starting at 157 did not change that.

 

[Rocky_Smith]

Agree on Lewan, but I have an observation/question about Amine and his endurance Friday night. The match began at 157, and it is obvious that Amine gassed. You could make a case that it was all MM's pace, but I have to wonder if Amine did not get the time to recover from a weight cut.

Amine needed OT to beat Luke Gayer, Rutgers (8-8) this weekend. He's struggling a bit this year.