2025 Expected Points and AAs

[wrestleknownothing]

Using the model data I previously posted about expected points and the probability of becoming an AA by seed, and combining that with the Intermat pre-season rankings I came up with scoring projections and AA projections for all teams.

Notes:

• There are no freshmen included in the pre-season rankings, meaning Lillendahl gets a goose egg until further notice.
• With 130 returning points, 120 seems like a light projection for PSU. Yeah, it probably is given what I have said previously about PSU performance vs. The Field. But, maybe this is the year PSU comes back to earth? Or maybe I should read the room better.
• When it says 6.6 AAs for PSU you can interpret that (approximately) as a 60% chance of 7 AAs and and 40% chance of 6 AAs.
• I only showed the top 20, though I have it for all teams with a ranked wrestler.
• The AAs are sorted in the team score order.
• I will update the projections and keep track of podium positions as the year goes on.

Points


AAs

 

[dbldoofus]

 

[ClarkstonMark]

Notes:

• When it says 6.6 AAs for PSU you can interpret that (approximately) as a 60% chance of 7 AAs and and 40% chance of 6 AAs.
  

I love that you do this, but I don't think that is actually what it means

 

[pointingdogsrule]

As long as we have 8 scoring points😊

 

[wrestleknownothing]

I love that you do this, but I don't think that is actually what it means

Yeah, the word approximately is doing a lot of work there

 

[psumacw]

I love that you do this, but I don't think that is actually what it means

the distribution has more spread to it, sure. so you could put it like:

1% chance of 9 AA (knowing the model has LL at 0%)
9% chance of 8
50% chance of 7
30% chance of 6
9% chance of 5
1% chance of 4

 

[wrestleknownothing]

the distribution has more spread to it, sure. so you could put it like:

1% chance of 9 AA (knowing the model has LL at 0%)
9% chance of 8
50% chance of 7
30% chance of 6
9% chance of 5
1% chance of 4

Yep, and I am unwilling to do all the permutations, but I will do the easy one. All 9 is 0.24% (assuming current ranks are final seeds).

 

[psumacw]

Yep, and I am unwilling to do all the permutations, but I will do the easy one. All 9 is 0.24% (assuming current ranks are final seeds).

can you share your source for rankings? i'm using the most recent ones i can find on flo (https://www.flowrestling.org/rankin...-wrestling-rankings/50270-p4p-carter-starocci)

i whipped something up in excel quick (it's only 1024 combinations of yes/no for 10 weights) and get 0.37% for 9 AA's based on flo's seeds:
125-NQ
133-8
141-3
149-2
157-4
165-1
174-2
184-1
197-21
285-1

i'm getting about 6.8 AA's on average, so i'm hoping it's just a seeds issue and not that i messed something up.

 

[wrestleknownothing]

can you share your source for rankings? i'm using the most recent ones i can find on flo (https://www.flowrestling.org/rankin...-wrestling-rankings/50270-p4p-carter-starocci)

i whipped something up in excel quick (it's only 1024 combinations of yes/no for 10 weights) and get 0.37% for 9 AA's based on flo's seeds:
125-NQ
133-8
141-3
149-2
157-4
165-1
174-2
184-1
197-21
285-1

i'm getting about 6.8 AA's on average, so i'm hoping it's just a seeds issue and not that i messed something up.

For the above I used Intermat. Flo only has rankings to 24 at this point. In the past they have ranked to 33. I am not sure if this is just a pre-season thing, or if they are doing that all year. If they expand to 33 I will start to include Flo's rankings in my estimates. To do this for all teams, I need all seeds filled in.

I just took a look at Wrestlestat and based on their rankings PSU is at 123 points with 6.7 AAs. Iowa is at 91.5 points with 5.4 AAs. Oklahoma State remains third at 67.8 points with 4.1 AAs. But Cornell leapfrogs a bunch of programs to the final podium spot with 58.9 points and 3.5 AAs.

 

[psumacw]

For the above I used Intermat. Flo only has rankings to 24 at this point. In the past they have ranked to 33. I am not sure if this is just a pre-season thing, or if they are doing that all year. If they expand to 33 I will start to include Flo's rankings in my estimates. To do this for all teams, I need all seeds filled in.

I just took a look at Wrestlestat and based on their rankings PSU is at 123 points with 6.7 AAs. Iowa is at 91.5 points with 5.4 AAs. Oklahoma State remains third at 67.8 points with 4.1 AAs. But Cornell leapfrogs a bunch of programs to the final podium spot with 58.9 points and 3.5 AAs.

thanks. yep, much closer now:

AA Count​	Flo​	Intermat​	Wrestlestat​
10​	0.00%​	0.00%​	0.00%​
9​	0.37%​	0.25%​	0.35%​
8​	23.32%​	13.22%​	17.81%​
7​	43.96%​	43.32%​	43.02%​
6​	25.20%​	32.51%​	30.31%​
5​	6.32%​	9.38%​	7.58%​
4​	0.77%​	1.24%​	0.88%​
3​	0.05%​	0.08%​	0.05%​
2​	0.00%​	0.00%​	0.00%​
1​	0.00%​	0.00%​	0.00%​
0​	0.00%​	0.00%​	0.00%​
Average AA's​	6.84​	6.58​	6.70​

 

[wrestleknownothing]

thanks. yep, much closer now:

AA Count​	Flo​	Intermat​	Wrestlestat​
10​	0.00%​	0.00%​	0.00%​
9​	0.37%​	0.25%​	0.35%​
8​	23.32%​	13.22%​	17.81%​
7​	43.96%​	43.32%​	43.02%​
6​	25.20%​	32.51%​	30.31%​
5​	6.32%​	9.38%​	7.58%​
4​	0.77%​	1.24%​	0.88%​
3​	0.05%​	0.08%​	0.05%​
2​	0.00%​	0.00%​	0.00%​
1​	0.00%​	0.00%​	0.00%​
0​	0.00%​	0.00%​	0.00%​
Average AA's​	6.84​	6.58​	6.70​

Did you actually do the expansion?

 

[psumacw]

yeah it took like 10min in excel to create the 1024 combinations and write a lookup for the AA probabilities from seeds that you provided earlier

 

[smalls103]

great stuff as always WKN.

i believe someone (Spey/Flo, maybe) did a recent history of seed performance and deduced that 7's actually fare a bit better than 6 seeds.

that is, if i'm recalling it correctly.

 

[PSU Mike]

great stuff as always WKN.

i believe someone (Spey/Flo, maybe) did a recent history of seed performance and deduced that 7's actually fare a bit better than 6 seeds.

that is, if i'm recalling it correctly.

So Iowa gets a lot of 2 seeds?


🤣

 

[LOTOlion]

My math shows and 83% chance at 10 AA’s 🤔

 

[wrestleknownothing]

My math shows and 83% chance at 10 AA’s 🤔

I know this may be sacrilege, but I think he stole that from "How I Met Your Mother"

 

[tullfan68]

My math shows and 83% chance at 10 AA’s 🤔

only 83% ???

 

[Ski]

only 83% ???

 

[matter7172]

I've got the "over" for PSU for both 123 and 6.7. I believe Penn State will break the scoring record again and will have 9 or 10 AAs.

 

[Sleepylion]

I've got the "over" for PSU for both 123 and 6.7. I believe Penn State will break the scoring record again and will have 9 or 10 AAs.

if the over under for PSU finalists was 6.5... many are still taking the over in October.

 

[wrestleknownothing]

I've got the "over" for PSU for both 123 and 6.7. I believe Penn State will break the scoring record again and will have 9 or 10 AAs.

Both numbers do not include Lilledahl. With Lilledahl it would likely be in the 7.1 to 7.5 range.

 

[GogglesPaizano]

The classic needs updated.

In order to win a national championship we need 8 finalists. No?

Better yet, in order to break the points record we need 8 finalists.

 

[STAND with PRIDE]

The only thing that will prevent this team from having 10 AA's is injury(s).

To think we dont have a guy at every weight (some weights have 2) capable of AA'ing is stupid.

 

[wrestleknownothing]

The only thing that will prevent this team from having 10 AA's is injury(s).

To think we dont have a guy at every weight (some weights have 2) capable of AA'ing is stupid.

You would make a great defensive back with that short memory.