3 way tie
- Thread starter PennStateProud55
- Start date
This year I'd say Michigan 1, OSU 2 and us 3 and that's with OSU losing some publicity points this year
If Ohio St beats Michigan (but drops another game), then they'd go since they would have beat both us and Michigan.
If it's Michigan beating Ohio St but picking up another loss along the way (in addition to losing to us), it would matter who Michigan loses to. Their other game against the East is home against Rutgers. Lose that game and Ohio St wins the tiebreaker. The more likely scenario would be losing at Indiana, in which case Michigan would win the tiebreaker.
The hypothetical would only regain relevance if PSU beats Michigan and then Michigan beats OSU. Michigan would also need to lose another conference game however.
We lose out in almost all three way tie situations. But a two way tie where we would come out on top is somewhat possible.
1.) We HAVE to win out (and beat Michigan).
2.) Ohio State loses to Michigan State and Michigan (possible).
3.) Michigan State loses to Purdue. (possible)
4.) Michigan loses to either one of Indiana (remotely possible) or Rutgers (well, Chaminade did beat Virginia and Ralph Sampson
).There are a couple of other scenarios, but unfortunately, this may be the most likely.
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There isn’t a 3 way tie scenario we’d win even if it happens because osu would have the better division record than us and Michigan.
Need osu to drop their MSU and Maryland games and beat Michigan. But if that happens there’s a chance MSU finishes with 2 conference losses creates another 3 way tie where we would also lose (to MSU) on account of division record.
Need osu to drop their MSU and Maryland games and beat Michigan. But if that happens there’s a chance MSU finishes with 2 conference losses creates another 3 way tie where we would also lose (to MSU) on account of division record.
Good call. I always forget who that last team in the east is, not the first time I’ve made that mistake.
We lose out in almost all three way tie situations. But a two way tie where we would come out on top is somewhat possible.
1.) We HAVE to win out (and beat Michigan).
2.) Ohio State loses to Michigan State and Michigan (possible).
3.) Michigan State loses to Purdue. (possible)
4.) Michigan loses to either one of Indiana (remotely possible) or Rutgers (well, Chaminade did beat Virginia and Ralph Sampson
There are a couple of other scenarios, but unfortunately, this may be the most likely.
The best chance of making the championship game is probably sone scandal that effects UMich & OSU, and results in sanctions or self-penalizing .
Much better odds than the whole east collapsing while we win out.
We are certainly behind the 8 ball. But if some miracle happens, and Indiana can somehow upset Michigan, there may be some hope. I can easily see Ohio State collapsing. Purdue exposed them pretty bad.
We lose out in almost all three way tie situations. But a two way tie where we would come out on top is somewhat possible.
1.) We HAVE to win out (and beat Michigan).
2.) Ohio State loses to Michigan State and Michigan (possible).
3.) Michigan State loses to Purdue. (possible)
4.) Michigan loses to either one of Indiana (remotely possible) or Rutgers (well, Chaminade did beat Virginia and Ralph Sampson
There are a couple of other scenarios, but unfortunately, this may be the most likely.
Went through this scenario yesterday as well checking out the tiebreakers and the above is pretty much the only way we'd get to Indy. Michigan has to lose twice. OSU has to lose twice. MSU to lose once. We lose all tiebreakers.
It would require a divisional collapse of epic proportions, it's likely never happened in any conference in history.
A better stretch goal is to shoot to win out, hope for some help, just a little, and get into a NY6 bowl. Or at least a NY bowl at all.
A better stretch goal is to shoot to win out, hope for some help, just a little, and get into a NY6 bowl. Or at least a NY bowl at all.
If we win out (big IF I know), we will get a NY6 bowl. We don't need any help. A 10-2 PSU team with 2 close losses, and wins over Michigan, Wisky, Iowa and App State (yes App State) absolutely gets a NY6 Bowl. Frankly, we'd be hands down the 2nd highest ranked Big 10 team in that scenario.
Let's just win Saturday first though.
Agreed - If we win out - we are in NY6.
Look above us.
LSU plays bama and A&M - atleast one loss. If they lose bad enough to bama (and we win 3 straight top 25 games we should be ahead of them.
Texas has 3 tough game and maybe the CCG game. Chances they lose 1. We'd be ahead of them.
Georgia plays Auburn and maybe Bama - we may be ahead of a 2 loss UGA (if they lose ugly)
OU has 3 tough games and then the title game. If they lose - we are probably ahead of them
UF plays Georgia. If they win that - they face bama - chances are good they get smoked. We are probably ahead of a 2 loss Florida team.
UK will probably lose to Mizzou - Mizzou can score - and UK can't. But if they win - they have UGA. We will be ahead of UK
WVU has 4 tough games and Baylor - and then the title game - they will lose atleast 2
WSU has 3 tough game and then the title game. We will be ahead of them.
Washington has 2 tough games. I think we will be ahead of them if we win out. Wed have more top 25 victories.
A&M still has LSU/Miss St/Auburn. They will lose.
If we win out - our record vs. top 25 will be ~ 4-2 (App St/Iowa/Wiscy/UM) and losses (MSU/OSU) depending on what happens the rest of the way. At worse - it will be 2-2 which will stack up nicely to most competition.
I know we must win out (but that was the premise) and that winning out won't be easy.
But honestly - if we win out - we will be ~ 8 -10 at worst in the final poll. That will be good enough for 2nd best BIG10 ranking which will all but guarantee a NY6 Bowl.
Honestly - there is an (VERY) outside chance at playoffs.
There is a very good chance only 1 SEC team has less than 2 losses.
There is a very good chance the BIG12/PAC champ has 2 losses.
If that happens and OSU wins out.
the playoffs would be OSU-Bama.
The final 2 spots would be Clemson-ND.
But what if ND loses - would a 12-1 ND be a lock over us? What if we smoked UM in Ann Arbor - that might look favorable?
If Clemson loses - are they a lock? There resume isn't really good.
I realize that a Playoff has about a 1% chance - but who knows. I do know a 10-2 PSU will be in NY6.
2 loss Penn state without a championship isn’t getting into the playoff over 1 loss Nd or 1 loss Clemson.
2 loss Penn state couldn’t get in over a 1 loss team they beat even with a championship.
If we win out, it's almost the same scenario as last year wrt us. Two close losses to two good teams, in fact the SAME two teams. Only difference is we lost at Home.
We beat Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Maryland (quite possibly the only team to beat eventual Big 12 Champ Texas), we WILL be in a New Year's Day Bowl. In all honesty, up to this point, we haven't been close to being as good as we were the last two years.
It will be interesting to see how we do this weekend with the new blood at WR Franklin is hinting at putting in. Too bad we have to judge them in lousy weather. The weather has an Iowa win written all over it. They are built for a game like this like we used to be under Joe, and looked exponentially better against Indiana two weeks ago than we did last week. It should be a great contrast in styles.
Not sure if you mean something else, but your second point is an impossibility wrt the Big Ten Championship. If we win the B1G Championship game, the only possible 1 loss team we would have beaten when the Playoff teams are selected would be App State, and I don't think you mean them.
If the rivers part, and we somehow totally obliterate Michigan in their house, while ND loses to someone, we at least would have a better win against Michigan on the road than Notre Dame did at Home.
We really are grasping for straws at this point. : ^ )
Any scenario where we win out is improbable but possible. But combined with all the other scenarios required, it seems unlikely to me that we'd be NY6.
You mean because Michigan lost to Notre Dame? That's really the only thing that's significantly different from last year if we win out.
So assuming Texas wins out. They would have ~3 wins vs top 25. We would have 4. Our 2 losses are against top 25. We would beat Maryland who they lost to. I wouldn't pencil Texas in over us.
Clemson would have beaten 1 and maybe 2. There loss would be against an unranked (and not good opponent).
Neither is a slam dunk over us.
the scenario 2 years ago isnt' the same. We had a loss to a mediocre team and a blowout loss. the blowout losses have impact. It is also who you beat. Losing by 1 to a loss OSU wouldn't hurt. Losing to MSU in the last minute wouldn't kill us.
Last year - the SEC teams were better and had a better resume. This year - 1 loss teams aren't clearly better - and don't have a better resume.
Not saying we get in - but I do think it will be closer than some imagine - and the chance is there.
Ideal scenario, Alabama, LSU, Clemson, and Notre Dame all get in. 3 Power Five Conferences left out. Two for the second year in a row further alienating everyone west of the Rockies and north of the Mason Dixon line who don't give a crap about Notre Dame. Ratings are a disaster with huge college football fans like me tuning out after New Years Day.
Might force Delany and Scott to get Bowlsby to join them in telling the Playoff Committee to select Conference Champs only, or take a hike. This Politically corrupt, ESPN influenced Playoff setup is just another nail in the coffin that is destroying the integrity of college football.
Completely disagree between last year and this year. Last year we had a total of ONE win over a team who finished in the final CFP Top 25. Northwestern. Wasn't even Michigan. This year barring a collapse by a few of them (if we won out) we'd have 3-4 wins over the top 25.
The second point was what happened in 2016. If we didn’t get in over 1 loss OSU in 2016 with the h2h win and a conference championship in our favor we aren’t getting in over 1 loss Notre Dame (or any 1 loss p5 team) without a h2h win or a conference championship.
There’s absolutely no way we would get in over Texas if they win out and win the big 12. No ones going to compare one common opponent played 3 months apart. If losing to MSU doesn’t kill us losing to Maryland in the season opener doesn’t kill them. Hate to break it to you but Michigan state isn’t ranked so both of our losses are not top 25. It’s a loss to a medicore team.
That makes no sense. So you're saying even though we would have played an assumed tougher schedule if we win out this year, we WON'T get to a NY6 Bowl? Maybe I'm not understanding what you mean.
I totally agree that our schedule is tougher this year.
No I meant in regards to a playoff spot which seems to be what you were replying to. I guarantee if we win out we'd be in a NY6 this year. But looking back maybe I read it all wrong lol
I think you need to check the dates of the videos you are watching, the 2018 team has zero chance of winning just about anything .......
