actual players in school on roster in fall vs "signees" on LOI day

[blion72]

anyone ever see the actual relationship between the signees on LOI day, and who actually enters school and is on the FB roster for most schools? for PSU the yield seems near 100% with the only outliers being people who something happened to adversely impact their entry at PSU (i.e. some disciplinary situation like the NJ kid who could not enter PSU due to an issue but is now starting at Ole Miss). i recall Adam McLean being called "flip" from PSU to Md, but it was actually inadequate academics as could not meet ncaa minimums. Md claimed him as a flip, but did not show on roster as FR. Volunteers have avg > 30 signees per year, but wonder how many are actually on the fall rosters.

ranking of classes is somewhat meaningless if it misses the no shows.

 

[Art]

Hartsfield never signed with PSU. His offer was yanked in October 2014.

McLean was rehabbing his knee and wasn't expected to play in 2015. By withdrawing from school, for whatever reason, he saved a year of eligibility.

 

[Rip_E_2_Joe_PA]

An interesting post for a change. There is a Miami area recruiting service that does a post signing day year one and year two update rankings of classes based on the number of kids that 1) were no shows 2) were gone for whatever reason. I heard them discuss this on a radio talk show on a long drive from Mid Florida to the Keys on business once afternoon. They gave a Miami Hurricane class that was ranked number on upon signing day small but loaded with consensus top 100 players had somewhere around 9-11 guys either not show, one or two went missing, one or two went to prison, a bunch just never showed or flunked out. So, in their post signing day annual rankings UM went from 1 to somewhere in the immeasurable mass. Yet their point was no other service did these post matriculation rankings and the bubble brains of sports casting .... continued to call that class a top 10 class.... The also discussed the uplift effect in years 2 and 3 of classes in schools like PSU, and others where they retained and developed players. It was one of the few fascinating and intelligent sport talk shows on this topic i have ever heard. In fact, probably the only one....now that I think of it.

 

[Art]

An interesting post for a change. There is a Miami area recruiting service that does a post signing day year one and year two update rankings of classes based on the number of kids that 1) were no shows 2) were gone for whatever reason. I heard them discuss this on a radio talk show on a long drive from Mid Florida to the Keys on business once afternoon. They gave a Miami Hurricane class that was ranked number on upon signing day small but loaded with consensus top 100 players had somewhere around 9-11 guys either not show, one or two went missing, one or two went to prison, a bunch just never showed or flunked out. So, in their post signing day annual rankings UM went from 1 to somewhere in the immeasurable mass. Yet their point was no other service did these post matriculation rankings and the bubble brains of sports casting .... continued to call that class a top 10 class.... The also discussed the uplift effect in years 2 and 3 of classes in schools like PSU, and others where they retained and developed players. It was one of the few fascinating and intelligent sport talk shows on this topic i have ever heard. In fact, probably the only one....now that I think of it.

This has been discussed on this board for years. Believe that Rivals revises it's rankings at some point after signing day to reflect no-shows, but don't know exactly when it does so.

 

[sluggo72]

LOL Marshall has done this for many years. They get the top recruiting class in cUSA, but when it is time for, you know, people actually showing up, there is like half or less of the class left!! And its not because they didn't make grades either!!

 

[Rip_E_2_Joe_PA]

This has been discussed on this board for years. Believe that Rivals revises it's rankings at some point after signing day to reflect no-shows, but don't know exactly when it does so.

Rivals does this but in a half assed way.... they highlight a few misses and hits and dwells on that.... nothing really significant regarding class ranking year to year that would justify rankings to reality in a timely and useful way. Hell, if they did that they would be showing the true value of their ranking service.

 

[hagberg]

Hartsfield never signed with PSU. His offer was yanked in October 2014.

McLean was rehabbing his knee and wasn't expected to play in 2015. By withdrawing from school, for whatever reason, he saved a year of eligibility.

How did that work for McLean saving a year? I thought the 5-year clock started ticking once one enrolled. Do they have to actually participate in football activity, receive benefits, or what? Just curious in case someone is interested in a 60-year-old bench warmer.

 

[royboy]

Rivals does this but in a half assed way.... they highlight a few misses and hits and dwells on that.... nothing really significant regarding class ranking year to year that would justify rankings to reality in a timely and useful way. Hell, if they did that they would be showing the true value of their ranking service.

Yeah, to my knowledge the major services such as Rivals, Scout, and ESPN do NOT do an overall re-adjustment of class rankings based on who actually shows up and is eligible in the fall. It's a major flaw in the value of such rankings IMO.

 

[Art]

How did that work for McLean saving a year? I thought the 5-year clock started ticking once one enrolled. Do they have to actually participate in football activity, receive benefits, or what? Just curious in case someone is interested in a 60-year-old bench warmer.

Clock starts ticking at initial full-time enrollment. Believe McClean was gone before the Fall term at Maryland began. So unless you managed to get your degree as a part-time student, you're out of luck.

 

[Art]

Yeah, to my knowledge the major services such as Rivals, Scout, and ESPN do NOT do an overall re-adjustment of class rankings based on who actually shows up and is eligible in the fall. It's a major flaw in the value of such rankings IMO.

If my understanding is correct, Rivals bases its team rankings on the top 20 prospects in any school's class. So the first question that should be asked is how many of these don't wind up enrolling? So far the anecdotal references are to one guy here and another guy there. Then, if a particular class has more than 20, any dropouts are replaced by the highest rated prospect not included in the (pen)ultimate go round. So how much significance are we talking? Does anyone have one example of a school's class that really fell apart between the last Rivals ranking and the first day of Fall practices and/or classes?

My own sense, which is based on nothing, is that dropouts don't cause a school's ranking to go into free fall. And given how "spot-on-the-money" the rankings are to begin with, what's the difference?

 

[interrobang]

McLean was technically a true freshman in 2016. He wasn't even on the 4-deep depth chart.