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Adrian Beltre: Hall of Famer?

LafayetteBear

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I read that Beltre got his 3,000th hit a couple of days ago. Frankly, I was very surprised to hear that news. I had no idea he was even within striking distance of 3,000 hits. You usually hear some media buildup as a guy is approaching a milestone like that.

As surprised as I was at this news, I think 3,000 hits should make him an automatic, first ballot qualifier for the Hall of Fame. I used to regard 500 home runs the same way, but it has been cheapened a bit by steroids and other performance enhancing drugs, as well as the steadily increasing size and strength of pro baseball players. But those things have not, IMO, cheapened the 3,000 hit standard That is still a momentous accomplishment. Beltre is only the 31st player to amass 3,000 career hits. I think he's in.

Your thoughts?
 
I read that Beltre got his 3,000th hit a couple of days ago. Frankly, I was very surprised to hear that news. I had no idea he was even within striking distance of 3,000 hits. You usually hear some media buildup as a guy is approaching a milestone like that.

As surprised as I was at this news, I think 3,000 hits should make him an automatic, first ballot qualifier for the Hall of Fame. I used to regard 500 home runs the same way, but it has been cheapened a bit by steroids and other performance enhancing drugs, as well as the steadily increasing size and strength of pro baseball players. But those things have not, IMO, cheapened the 3,000 hit standard That is still a momentous accomplishment. Beltre is only the 31st player to amass 3,000 career hits. I think he's in.

Your thoughts?
He's going to finish with 3,000+ hits and 500+ homers. Plus he was a good fielder back in his prime. He's got to be in.

But I agree, his career stats kind of sneak up on you. Always thought of him as a good not great player but he has been able to do it consistently for so long now.
 
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Without question. 500 dingers is not a lock but regardless of whether he gets there or not, he's in. First ballot no doubter.
 
He's been a good player for a long time at a position that doesn't have a lot of players to have equaled or exceeded his lifetime batting numbers.

LaFayette, Rafael Palmeiro has 3,020 hits lifetime in addition to his 569 home runs. Your thoughts on him with 3,000+ hits and being HOF worthy?
 
He's been a good player for a long time at a position that doesn't have a lot of players to have equaled or exceeded his lifetime batting numbers.

LaFayette, Rafael Palmeiro has 3,020 hits lifetime in addition to his 569 home runs. Your thoughts on him with 3,000+ hits and being HOF worthy?
John: You are right about the 3,000/500 metric. If Beltre manages to hit another 46 homers (he's 38 now, and has a current career total of 454), that would put him in pretty exclusive company. I think the 3,000/500 club currently has four members: Aaron, Mays, Frank Robinson and Rafa Palmeiro.

Rafa's numbers would obviously put him in the Hall but for the steroids thing. And he not only used, but the fact of his use came out after he had vehemently denied using in his testimony before Congress. He topped it off by trying to throw a teammate (Miguel Tejada, as I recall) under the bus for the PED's found in his locker. Those things are killing his HOF candidacy.

Reasonable people can disagree about how actual or suspected steroid use should impact a guy's HOF candidacy. I tend to be pretty anti-PED, so I am currently opposed to guys like McGwire, Rafa, Bonds and Clemens getting in. But as time goes on and it gets harder to tell who used and who didn't, that could change. How about you?
 
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John: You are right about the 3,000/500 metric. If Beltre manages to hit another 46 homers (he's 38 now, and has a current career total of 454), that would put him in pretty exclusive company. I think the 3,000/500 club currently has four members: Aaron, Mays, Frank Robinson and Rafa Palmeiro.

Rafa's numbers would obviously put him in the Hall but for the steroids thing. And he not only used, but the fact of his use came out after he had vehemently denied using in his testimony before Congress. He topped it off by trying to throw a teammate (Miguel Tejada, as I recall) under the bus for the PED's found in his locker. Those things are killing his HOF candidacy.

Reasonable people can disagree about how actual or suspected steroid use should impact a guy's HOF candidacy. I tend to be pretty anti-PED, so I am currently opposed to guys like McGwire, Rafa, Bonds and Clemens getting in. But as time goes on and it gets harder to tell who used and who didn't, that could change. How about you?


Frank Robby did not get to 3k. You are thinking of Murray.
 
I am in the all should be in camp if their numbers warrant it. There were too many things going on to know who was clean and who was dirty during the PED years. Ivan Rodriguez swears he never used PED's but there was a definite uptick in production for a period of about 4 seasons in the middle of his career.

Rafael Palmeiro has the numbers to be in, he should be in.
 
Odd thing with Beltre is he's actually becoming a better hitter it seems.
He's a career .286 hitter but he hasn't finished with a batting average below .286 since 2009.

Definitely a HOFer based on his status but don't imagine many people will be telling their kids they saw him play.
 
Beltre and Palmiero deserve to be in because their numbers warrant their inclusion. Simple as that, IMO.
 
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Everyone notices the jump in the number of home runs tied to those who used steroids: Bonds, Sosa, McGuire, etc. Also the distance of home runs hit seemed noticeably greater.

I'm not sure how many additional hits can be attributed to steroids. Hitting the ball harder, further, recovering physically faster. I think fans tend to look primarily at home run numbers.

Having 3,000 hits is impressive and to me a near certain ticket to the HOF. Although if one plays 20-years averaging 150 hits a year that seems to fall into the being good a long time rather than being great, but it still equals 3,000 hits.
 
Everyone notices the jump in the number of home runs tied to those who used steroids: Bonds, Sosa, McGuire, etc. Also the distance of home runs hit seemed noticeably greater.

I'm not sure how many additional hits can be attributed to steroids. Hitting the ball harder, further, recovering physically faster. I think fans tend to look primarily at home run numbers.

Having 3,000 hits is impressive and to me a near certain ticket to the HOF. Although if one plays 20-years averaging 150 hits a year that seems to fall into the being good a long time rather than being great, but it still equals 3,000 hits.

Yeah, but your hypothetical would never happen. If you're good enough to be getting 150 hits at age 40, you were great at some point. No chance you were just 150 a year for 20 straight years.
 
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Without question. 500 dingers is not a lock but regardless of whether he gets there or not, he's in. First ballot no doubter.

Kind of odd some of the folks who weren't first ballot.

How about a .325 lifetime average with 534 HRs? Jimmie Foxx, not a first ballot HOFer.

Neither was untouchable 56 game hit streaker Joe DiMaggio. Surely a catcher with 3 MVPs would be a 1st ballot guy? Not so for Yogi Berra. Nor were Harmon Killebrew's 570+ career HRs enough to get in year one.
 
Yeah, but your hypothetical would never happen. If you're good enough to be getting 150 hits at age 40, you were great at some point. No chance you were just 150 a year for 20 straight years.

I get that, but Al Kaline, in a 22-year career and his first year was only for 30 games which he only had seven hits, had more than 150 hits in a season just nine times (twice just over 150). He finished with 3,007 hits. Take away his first season of 30 games played and his seven hits, he then got 3,000 hits in 21 seasons. At age 39, he had 146 hits.
 
If you're a proven cheater, like Sosa, Bonds, Palmiero, McGwire et al - you're OUT and you STAY out.

We don't catch every bank robber, either. But that doesn't mean that the ones we DO catch, we let them go.
 
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Yeah, but your hypothetical would never happen. If you're good enough to be getting 150 hits at age 40, you were great at some point. No chance you were just 150 a year for 20 straight years.

I get that, but Al Kaline, in a 22-year career and his first year was only for 30 games which he only had seven hits, had more than 150 hits in a season just nine times (twice just over 150). He finished with 3,007 hits. Take away his first season of 30 games played and his seven hits, he then got 3,000 hits in 21 seasons. At age 39, he had 146 hits.


I understand what you are saying. Have had the HOF convo many times with people who actually vote. One person has an interesting take, somewhat along the lines of your thinking. For him, he favors people who dominated the game for a period of time and who had the ability to beat you in different ways. Therefore, for example (and I can remember these discussions pretty clearly), Puckett was a no doubt about it guy for him since he said that Puckett could beat you in a number of ways and one could argue was the best player in the game for certain years in his career. The same person has a soft spot for Dale Murphy but realizes that Murphy put together a couple of dominating years with a number of years that were less than stellar.

Not sure if you saw Kaline play but one could argue that he was a top three defensive outfielder of all time. He has the Gold Gloves to back it up and had a cannon for a right field arm. Arguably, you could say that the best OF'ers of all time defensively were Clemente, Mays, Griffey, Kaline, and Bonds.

But 3,000 hits is an automatic. That's a ton of hits and it doesn't matter if you got 3,000 in one year or one hit for 3,000 years. It's still a gold standard. I believe Beltre is number 31 to get there and a ton of baseball royalty did not get there. Now you can argue that the club has been disproportionately represented by players after 1970 but show me one player in there that is not thought of as a great player. I guess you can say Yount who played a LONG time but he was still a great player for most of his career. In my opinion, 3k carries more cache than 500 dingers.
 
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I read that Beltre got his 3,000th hit a couple of days ago. Frankly, I was very surprised to hear that news. I had no idea he was even within striking distance of 3,000 hits. You usually hear some media buildup as a guy is approaching a milestone like that.

As surprised as I was at this news, I think 3,000 hits should make him an automatic, first ballot qualifier for the Hall of Fame. I used to regard 500 home runs the same way, but it has been cheapened a bit by steroids and other performance enhancing drugs, as well as the steadily increasing size and strength of pro baseball players. But those things have not, IMO, cheapened the 3,000 hit standard That is still a momentous accomplishment. Beltre is only the 31st player to amass 3,000 career hits. I think he's in.

Your thoughts?

Beltre has 454 homers now and should have no problem getting to 500. He's by all accounts a great team mate and I don't think he's been tainted by PEDs. With 3000/500 I think he's a no brainer for the HOF.
 
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I agree with what you wrote tailg. I feel Puckett is a HOFer as will be Beltre. To me Dale Murphy is not quite a HOFer. As for players who were great and dominated for a short period of time and could beat you various ways, that brings Dave Parker into the conversation. The Cobra had HOF talent but snorted his way out of the HOF.

What is everyone's thoughts on Don Sutton? A beneficiary of playing for a great organization like the Dodgers? I see him as good for a very long time rather than great.
 
The Baseball Hall of Fame moreso than other sports is a lifetime achievement. There are very few Gayle Sayers in the baseball HOF. For years baseball was 3,000 hits, 500 HR's, or 300 wins. They were all automatic numbers. Seems like the 500 HR is starting to mean less.
 
I read that Beltre got his 3,000th hit a couple of days ago. Frankly, I was very surprised to hear that news. I had no idea he was even within striking distance of 3,000 hits. You usually hear some media buildup as a guy is approaching a milestone like that.

As surprised as I was at this news, I think 3,000 hits should make him an automatic, first ballot qualifier for the Hall of Fame. I used to regard 500 home runs the same way, but it has been cheapened a bit by steroids and other performance enhancing drugs, as well as the steadily increasing size and strength of pro baseball players. But those things have not, IMO, cheapened the 3,000 hit standard That is still a momentous accomplishment. Beltre is only the 31st player to amass 3,000 career hits. I think he's in.

Your thoughts?

I agree. Only 31 players have gotten to 3000 hits. That makes him automatic in my book.
 
I get that, but Al Kaline, in a 22-year career and his first year was only for 30 games which he only had seven hits, had more than 150 hits in a season just nine times (twice just over 150). He finished with 3,007 hits. Take away his first season of 30 games played and his seven hits, he then got 3,000 hits in 21 seasons. At age 39, he had 146 hits.

I'm not really sure Kaline supports what you said. You say had more than 150 "just" nine times...that's almost an entire decade above the number you cited, including 3 times over 190 and a 200 hit season. He also was a 15 time all-star and 10 time gold glove winner. Hard for me to look at that and say he was good for a long time but never great. I do agree he's likely the closest thing to your scenario that exists.
 
But 3,000 hits is an automatic. That's a ton of hits and it doesn't matter if you got 3,000 in one year or one hit for 3,000 years. It's still a gold standard. In my opinion, 3k carries more cache than 500 dingers.

Could not agree more with this ^^^^.
 
The Baseball Hall of Fame moreso than other sports is a lifetime achievement. There are very few Gayle Sayers in the baseball HOF. For years baseball was 3,000 hits, 500 HR's, or 300 wins. They were all automatic numbers. Seems like the 500 HR is starting to mean less.

And conversely, 300 wins is starting to mean a whole lot MORE. Consider the effect of baseball going from four to five man rotations. The means each starter getting a maximum of roughly 40 starts a year (assuming he is healthy for the entire year), vs a maximum roughly 32 starts per year. Plus , managers now insert relief pitchers much earlier, and starters therefore lose more chances at a decision. I think 250 (or maybe even 225) is gonna be the new 300
 
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I agree with what you wrote tailg. I feel Puckett is a HOFer as will be Beltre. To me Dale Murphy is not quite a HOFer. As for players who were great and dominated for a short period of time and could beat you various ways, that brings Dave Parker into the conversation. The Cobra had HOF talent but snorted his way out of the HOF.

What is everyone's thoughts on Don Sutton? A beneficiary of playing for a great organization like the Dodgers? I see him as good for a very long time rather than great.

Sutton might be the best example of the point you are making. Certainly 300 wins is monumental but Sutton, Perry, and Niekro test the equation. Heck, Sutton and Perry were not even the best pitchers on their staffs for periods of their career. Sutton, Perry, and Niekro pitched forever and Sutton was an average pitcher at BEST for the last 6 years of his career. But they were dependable warriors who missed little time. The same argument is often stated about Ryan but that's so far off the mark considering his K's. Now you can say if he had such dominating stuff why did he lose so much, but he was so unique that his tilted record takes a back seat to his dominance, K's, and no-nos.
 
Wb, I certainly feel Kaline is a HOFer. Without question. I was just trying to think of someone who played 20 years or more and just broke the 3,000-hit threshold.

Sutton and Niekro may be better examples of someone that was consistently good for a long time and made it to a HOF milestone statistic. I don't believe there are any players with 20 150+ hit seasons and they would have had to be great as you stated. Jeter with 17 and 1 hit shy of 18 150+ hit seasons. Cobb and Rose both had 18, Wagner 16.

In reference to home run milestones and the hall, when I was young at that time every player with over 400 home runs was in the hall of fame. Almost a given and I would venture to guess less than 25 players had done at that time. Dave Kingman changed that. He was the first player to have 400+ home runs and not be inducted. As you may remember, Kingman struck out a lot and was never considered HOF caliber.
 
Wb, I certainly feel Kaline is a HOFer. Without question. I was just trying to think of someone who played 20 years or more and just broke the 3,000-hit threshold.

Sutton and Niekro may be better examples of someone that was consistently good for a long time and made it to a HOF milestone statistic. I don't believe there are any players with 20 150+ hit seasons and they would have had to be great as you stated. Jeter with 17 and 1 hit shy of 18 150+ hit seasons. Cobb and Rose both had 18, Wagner 16.

In reference to home run milestones and the hall, when I was young at that time every player with over 400 home runs was in the hall of fame. Almost a given and I would venture to guess less than 25 players had done at that time. Dave Kingman changed that. He was the first player to have 400+ home runs and not be inducted. As you may remember, Kingman struck out a lot and was never considered HOF caliber.

I don't think there is a magic number for dingers anymore like 500 used to represent. You mentioned Kong and there are a host of more players including Andruw Jones, Konerko, and Dunn who got up there who won't get a sniff. And then McGriff who was I think 7 short and gets no votes. I think 600 is the new 500. I'm interested to see Thome. He obviously gets in but I'm not sure he is a first ballot. Chipper is a first ballot even though he was short of 500 as well.
 
The list of 500 HR guys not in the hall is still pretty short. The obvious ones Bonds, ARod, McGwire, Sosa, and Palmeiro will always receive resistance. Guys like Thome, Sheffield, Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, and Pujols seem to not get as much heat despite playing in the same era.

So that is only 10 guys not in and a couple aren't even eligible yet.

I'm just not sure how Poppy can go in and Bonds doesn't. I can't differentiate between the two camps.
 
The list of 500 HR guys not in the hall is still pretty short. The obvious ones Bonds, ARod, McGwire, Sosa, and Palmeiro will always receive resistance. Guys like Thome, Sheffield, Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, and Pujols seem to not get as much heat despite playing in the same era.

So that is only 10 guys not in and a couple aren't even eligible yet.

I'm just not sure how Poppy can go in and Bonds doesn't. I can't differentiate between the two camps.


Manny is NEVER getting in. The only dope to have gotten caught multiple times. Voters will put Barry in way before putting Manny in.
 
I know some aren't sold on the advanced stats but his career #'s put him in a class that very very few are in. Not just 3000 hits.

People are now recognizing that he is an All time great that basically flew under the radar. The coverage I thought was pretty much everywhere.

His head thing makes him a Hall of Famer alone. Elvis Andrus is the worst culprit. So many funny clips
adrian-beltre-head-touch.gif
 
Sutton might be the best example of the point you are making. Certainly 300 wins is monumental but Sutton, Perry, and Niekro test the equation. Heck, Sutton and Perry were not even the best pitchers on their staffs for periods of their career. Sutton, Perry, and Niekro pitched forever and Sutton was an average pitcher at BEST for the last 6 years of his career. But they were dependable warriors who missed little time. The same argument is often stated about Ryan but that's so far off the mark considering his K's. Now you can say if he had such dominating stuff why did he lose so much, but he was so unique that his tilted record takes a back seat to his dominance, K's, and no-nos.
Don Sutton had 324 wins (14th all time) and 3574 strikeouts (7th all time). Those are pretty good numbers. Why he is regarded by anyone as a borderline or even middling Hall of Famer just amazes me. Yeah, he was the second best pitcher on his team, but how many Hall of Fame pitchers were better than Sandy Koufax? Not one, in my opinion.
 
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The list of 500 HR guys not in the hall is still pretty short. The obvious ones Bonds, ARod, McGwire, Sosa, and Palmeiro will always receive resistance. Guys like Thome, Sheffield, Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, and Pujols seem to not get as much heat despite playing in the same era.

So that is only 10 guys not in and a couple aren't even eligible yet.

I'm just not sure how Poppy can go in and Bonds doesn't. I can't differentiate between the two camps.
Ortiz played nice with the media, Bonds didn't. And when the ballot is dictated completely by media types, you can see why they might be more willing to forgive some more than others.
 
Don Sutton had 324 wins (14th all time) and 3574 strikeouts (7th all time). Those are pretty good numbers. Why he is regarded by anyone as a borderline or even middling Hall of Famer just amazes me. Yeah, he was the second best pitcher on his team, but how many Hall of Fame pitchers were better than Sandy Koufax? Not one, in my opinion.

Schilling had to be #2 to both Randy Johnson and Pedro in his career. He would have been #1 everywhere else.

Schilling is a HoFer too, IMO. All three pitched in the heart of the steroid era.

Martinez was the best of all time I think and definitely the most dominant while he was peaking. He did it WAY longer in a way tougher era than Koufax. The numbers vs what the rest of the league was doing don't even make sense.

It won't matter because if Kershaw can get fully healthy and stay there this won't even be a question.
 
Don Sutton had 324 wins (14th all time) and 3574 strikeouts (7th all time). Those are pretty good numbers. Why he is regarded by anyone as a borderline or even middling Hall of Famer just amazes me. Yeah, he was the second best pitcher on his team, but how many Hall of Fame pitchers were better than Sandy Koufax? Not one, in my opinion.

I was talking about Drysdale principally as he only pitched in 66 with Koufax. He was productive and deserves to be in, all I was saying that guys like him, Perry, and Niekro are probably the best examples of guys who played the long game to gain entry into the Hall.
 
Don Sutton had 324 wins (14th all time) and 3574 strikeouts (7th all time). Those are pretty good numbers. Why he is regarded by anyone as a borderline or even middling Hall of Famer just amazes me. Yeah, he was the second best pitcher on his team, but how many Hall of Fame pitchers were better than Sandy Koufax? Not one, in my opinion.

One last point and I'm not disagreeing with you. Compare Sutton to Jim Kaat. Kaat' average line was 13-11 3.45 while Sutton's was 14-11 3.26. Now Kaat has long been viewed as borderline and you have to be good to be a starter and productive, but they are similar. Now Sutton had a lot more K's so that benefits him in the discussion.
 
Schilling had to be #2 to both Randy Johnson and Pedro in his career. He would have been #1 everywhere else.

Schilling is a HoFer too, IMO. All three pitched in the heart of the steroid era.

Martinez was the best of all time I think and definitely the most dominant while he was peaking. He did it WAY longer in a way tougher era than Koufax. The numbers vs what the rest of the league was doing don't even make sense.

It won't matter because if Kershaw can get fully healthy and stay there this won't even be a question.
Curt Schilling had 216 wins, 3,116 strikeouts and a 3.46 career ERA.
Pedro Martinez had 219 wins, 3,154 strikeouts, and 2.93 a career ERA.
Don Sutton had 324 wins, 3,574 strikeouts, and a 3.26 career ERA.
Sandy Koufax had 165 wins, 2,396 strikeouts, and a 2.76 career ERA.

Koufax is probably the ultimate exception to the general rule that HoF membership is reserved for those who have shown sustained career excellence. Don Sutton is probably at the other end of the spectrum - very good but never the most dominant guy. He just kept doing it for 22+ years, so he.had more than 100 more wins than Pedro.

But Pedro averaged 10.4 K's per nine innings pitched, to 9.3 for Koufax and 6.1 for Sutton. I would disagree with your contention that Pedro's era was "way tougher than Koufax's." Every time Koufax took the mound against the Giants, he had to face Mays, McCovey, Cepeda, Bobby Bonds, and one of the Alou brothers. He had to pitch to Aaron, Clemente, Musial, Banks, Matthews, and a host of other Hall of Famers..

Whether Schilling's numbers get him in the Hall is a close one, IMO. The HoF voters need to understand (and hopefully do, since they are baseball writers) that 300 wins is not a reasonable threshold any longer.

,
 
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Could not agree more with this ^^^^.
That's where I am at too. 3000 hits is a drop dead, sure fire, 100% automatic. Only 31 people have ever done it in over 100 years of baseball. It should be no later than second ballot, but probably the first..... just because sports writers are stubborn. If he gets to 500 homers- first ballot all the way. That's rare territory.
 
Curt Schilling had 216 wins, 3,116 strikeouts and a 3.46 career ERA.
Pedro Martinez had 219 wins, 3,154 strikeouts, and 2.93 a career ERA.
Don Sutton had 324 wins, 3,574 strikeouts, and a 3.26 career ERA.
Sandy Koufax had 165 wins, 2,396 strikeouts, and a 2.76 career ERA.

Koufax is probably the ultimate exception to the general rule that HoF membership is reserved for those who have shown sustained career excellence. Don Sutton is probably at the other end of the spectrum - very good but never the most dominant guy. He just kept doing it for 22+ years, so he.had more than 100 more wins than Pedro.

But Pedro averaged 10.4 K's per nine innings pitched, to 9.3 for Koufax and 6.1 for Sutton. But I would disagree with your contention that Pedro's era was "way tougher than Koufax's." Every time Koufax took the mound against the Giants, he had to face Mays, McCovey, Cepeda, Bobby Bonds, and one of the Alou brothers. He had to pitch to Aaron, Clemente, Musial, Banks, Matthews, and a host of other Hall of Famers..

Whether Schilling's numbers get him in the Hall is a close one, IMO. The HoF voters need to understand (and hopefully do, since they are baseball writers) that 300 wins is not a reasonable threshold any longer.

,


When Pedro was the best, he was the closest I can remember to that five year run of Koufax. I can remember talking to a scout one day in Clearwater who was charting Pedro against the Phillies. The scout told me that Pedro had the best fastball, curve, and change in the game. Every fastball that Pedro threw that day was 97, and that was when 97 was as hard as anyone threw it other than maybe Randy and Billy Wags. As good as his fastball was, his curve and change were even better coming off the fastball. I remember Rolen walking back to the dugout just shaking his head laughing as to how can anyone expect to hit that. Just like Mantle did in the 63 Series against Koufax. Mantle struck out and said to the ump "how are we supposed to hit that shit."
 
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