I’m hoping Spencer wins bigs placing Tomasello as potentially 4 or 5 seed.
As of today, HELL NO. This is the worst case scenario, unless Fausz or Piccininni will beat Nato in the quarters.
The goal is NCAAs. Cruz will be undefeated, so he will be the #1 seed -- unless there is an undefeated B10
champ (who would have a strength of schedule edge) -- Cruiseliner Nick is the only candidate left.
We do not want a Cruz-Nato semi. But we will get it if:
(A) Lee wins B10s: seeds = 1 Cruz, 2 Lee, 3 Jerz, 4 Nato.
(B) Jerz beats Nato at B10 finals: seeds = 1 Jerz, 2 Cruz, 3 Nato, 4 Lee.
Better options:
(C) Jerz beats Lee at B10 finals: seeds = 1 Jerz, 2 Cruz, 3 Lee, 4 Nato.
(D) Nato wins B10s: seeds = 1 Cruz, 2 Nato, 3 Jerz, 4 Lee.
Caveat: if Fausz beats Tomasello in the 2/18 dual, then
(A) is uncertain. If Nato drops to 5, no real change. If he drops to 6 behind Fausz and Piccininni, it's now OK.
(B) now looks OK: seeds = 1 Jerz, 2 Cruz, 3 Fausz, 4 Nato, 5 Lee.
(C) is still good if Nato stays ahead of Piccininni; if not, yuck.
(D) is really hard to tell. I'm having a real hard time justifying Fausz ahead of Jerz, but can also see the seeding committee doing something screwy.
If something else happens -- Rivera beats Cruiseliner Nick at B10 semis (which almost happened at Midlands), or Nato somehow loses to Mattin or Welch at B10 quarters -- too complicated to think about yet.