Analytics: Getting teams beaten all year long...
- Thread starter Parkerdam555
- Start date
Yeah that ended up being a horrific decision. Kick the extra pt then go to OT.
Didn’t like going for 2. And didn’t like the pass on 3rd and 1 then yolo in 4th with that much time left.
but… they scored a TD on 4th and 1 from their own side of the field in the first quarter. “Analytics” was probably a net positive… which is the idea. Over a big enough sample it should be favorable.
Pushing their luck on that 4th down call. Need a yard and a half and you loft the ball 30 yards downfield. Keystone cops with the receivers running into each other.
KC got lucky again but they are not going to get by Buffalo this season.
If the odds are 60-40 to go for it, that doesn't mean you are guaranteed to succeed. Fans don't understand basic statistics.
I feel like coaches don't want to actually make decisions and think if they just refer to the sheet then it's not their fault when it doesn't work.
But do the coaches?
The worst decision using analytics was the Chargers going for 4th and 1 at their own 46 with under 2 minutes to go. Yes, if you convert that you win--if you don't the Browns need about 5 yards to attempt a FG and about 15 to seal the victory. They survived it but it wasn't the best decision regardless of what the stats say.
Except individual games are not the same as big samples. These coaches are using this as an out for making poor in game decisions.
^^^
I'm with Lando here. If you are going to get second and third guessed over every critical decision, having the "analytics" to fall back on is a good enough scapegoat. The gamblers love it. They'll support anything that has probable odds for success. Bet 9 games a week and consistently win 5+, you are ahead.
However, at what point do you keep your own analytics? Sure, all of football is 62% on 4th and 1 from your own 46 but your own team can't get 3rd and 1 more than 30% of the time because your OL is weak or their defense is just better. What do your internal analytics say?
But fans understand stupidity when they see it. Absolute boneheaded decision to go for it last night by the Raiders. Recall another analytical genius at San Diego going for it on 4th down last year and failing all 3 times and losing the game if he had the 9 points on 3 chip shot FGs. I remember how Tom Landry would never go for it unless he had to. He would kick a FG on 4th and goal from the 1 early in games. But hey what did he know about football?
Noll did the same thing. So did Gibbs, Walsh, Parcells, and just about every other great coach.
Just out of curiosity how do you know it got them beat? You have no clue if they wouldn't have lost anyway. That is the great part about Monday morning coaching is you are right 100%. Just because it doesn't work out 100% of the time doesn't mean it was a wrong or bad decision.
Not Monday Morning quarterbacking when you are watching the game and before the play is run you say 3 times kick the damn FG and you lose by 3pts. Some people can rationalize anything apparently.
It’s true the gamblers/poker players love math and statistically if you consistently play favorable odds, you’ll come out ahead in the long run.
That said, there is an art to poker as well. The Greats don’t just blindly follow stats. They also know how to play their opponents and adjust accordingly to the opponent and the situation. This is the part many coaches just don’t get.
That said, there is an art to poker as well. The Greats don’t just blindly follow stats. They also know how to play their opponents and adjust accordingly to the opponent and the situation. This is the part many coaches just don’t get.
But that wasn't really the total decision-making factor, only a part of it. You (the coaches) also have to weigh it vs. probabilities of alternate decisions and resulting future outcomes. That is, what is the probability for success of the alternative: kicking the XP. Then what is the probability for success in OT if that XP is made. It might result in the same decision but a lot more goes into it than the straight probability of making the 2 point conversion. Otherwise, teams would go for it every time.
