If we win out we're between 5-7...likely 6
If we lose a second game we're not lower than 10 and likely in the 8-9 game
If we lose a second game we're not lower than 10 and likely in the 8-9 game
Is anyone actually advocating for us? (re: CFP)
- Thread starter djm_psu_alum
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Remember--the head of the committee is a Big Ten guy...the last thing they'd ever do is keep out a 10-2 Penn State (Michigan, Ohio State, USC or Oregon)
I'll take things that have zero chance of happening for $1000, Alex.
Just win. That shuts up all arguments. We win out on the regular season, we will get our chance on the field in the playoffs. We either prove we belong or we don’t. There will be no more room to argue either way after that. If PSU wants the bad press to stop, all they need do is win.
Just my hunch:
When ND beats Army, the Irish will jump over both PSU and the OSU-Indiana loser in the next AP poll.
When ND beats Army, the Irish will jump over both PSU and the OSU-Indiana loser in the next AP poll.
I don’t know that it matters much who is rooting for us.
The Big Ten will have four teams barring a colossal upset of Indiana by Purdue (after they lose to OSU) or Ohio State dropping their last two.
The SEC is essentially lobbying against the Acc and Big 12.
Notre Dame could lose to USC and slip out. But a 1-loss ND gets in above any non-CCG SEC team.
The Big Ten will have four teams barring a colossal upset of Indiana by Purdue (after they lose to OSU) or Ohio State dropping their last two.
The SEC is essentially lobbying against the Acc and Big 12.
Notre Dame could lose to USC and slip out. But a 1-loss ND gets in above any non-CCG SEC team.
That win vs A&M should be completely canceled out by the NIU loss IMHO.
Disagree with you, if Indiana loses they are going to drop. Indiana is currently undefeated and ranked behind three 1-loss teams - if they take a loss this week (which they will - even if they can compete with duhO$U, which I doubt - we'll never know because the b2g home-jobbers are going to call the game in a way duhO$U cannot lose. IOW, duhO$U is going to be allowed to clutch, grab and outright tackle along the Offensive Line and in Defensive Secondary) - but again, after they lose, the CFP Committee could easily move them behind all the 2-loss SEC teams (i.e., 11th) which would make them first team out 3 b2g, 5 SEC, 1 ACC, 1 B12, ND and Boise State.
Yep. We need to win out and have Ohio State take out Indiana. If Indiana wins we could be in trouble.
With all due respect, f*ck em all. I want the Big 10 to lay waste to all SEC teams. Bring it.
Let them all sit there, tired after banging their blood relative, crying that they they're special and deserve this spot or that spot. I don't care.
The other day a couple of ND chuckle nuts were beating the "PSU hasn't done anything" drum over on Reddit. I'm sure they got that idea from the SEC talking points and figured they'd latch on in case they find themselves on the fringe.
First, they don't understand that losing at home to NIU is a huge issue for the committee. They equate it to our loss to Ohio State. They ignore Manuel's comments about the OSU loss when he said the committee felt it could have gone either way (which sounds to me a lot like they think PSU could be on par with OSU, and if not, not far below).
Second, they think that A&M win should get them the championship, no playoff needed.
Third, they have no understanding of strength of schedule - with ours being ranked 35 and theirs being ranked 82. If PSU hasn't beaten anyone then they certainly haven't either, but you can't talk sense to some people. (Texas is 38, OSU 28, Oregon 43 - the real drum beat is for UGA who has the #1 SOS)
I agree with the idea that winning out guarantees a home game and likely a more favorable opponent. We do need a couple of things to happen to end up #5 - maybe backing into the CCG and losing close or having Indiana get blown out by OSU who then follows it up with a loss to UM - but even if those things don't happen I think PSU has a better than 75% chance to be #6 or better, especially with the current #4 SOR and likely a top 4 ranking at the end of the season.
First, they don't understand that losing at home to NIU is a huge issue for the committee. They equate it to our loss to Ohio State. They ignore Manuel's comments about the OSU loss when he said the committee felt it could have gone either way (which sounds to me a lot like they think PSU could be on par with OSU, and if not, not far below).
Second, they think that A&M win should get them the championship, no playoff needed.
Third, they have no understanding of strength of schedule - with ours being ranked 35 and theirs being ranked 82. If PSU hasn't beaten anyone then they certainly haven't either, but you can't talk sense to some people. (Texas is 38, OSU 28, Oregon 43 - the real drum beat is for UGA who has the #1 SOS)
I agree with the idea that winning out guarantees a home game and likely a more favorable opponent. We do need a couple of things to happen to end up #5 - maybe backing into the CCG and losing close or having Indiana get blown out by OSU who then follows it up with a loss to UM - but even if those things don't happen I think PSU has a better than 75% chance to be #6 or better, especially with the current #4 SOR and likely a top 4 ranking at the end of the season.
The Big Ten picture is very clear to me. Indiana will lose to OSU (probably 14 points...maybe more). OSU and Oregon win out...
Indiana will drop to around 10...behind at least 3 2-loss SEC teams.
If Oregon wins, OSU still stays ahead of us in the final poll (5 seed hosting 12)...and we'll be 6 seed hosting 11).
If OSU wins, Oregon stays ahead of us in the final poll (5-seed hosting 12)...and we'll be 6 seed hosting 11).
I really don't see how another team can squeeze into 5 or 6 spot above us and the CCG loser. And I'm confident that Indiana still sneaks in late in the poll. Maybe #11 and they have to come to Happy Valley Dec. 21...?
Indiana will drop to around 10...behind at least 3 2-loss SEC teams.
If Oregon wins, OSU still stays ahead of us in the final poll (5 seed hosting 12)...and we'll be 6 seed hosting 11).
If OSU wins, Oregon stays ahead of us in the final poll (5-seed hosting 12)...and we'll be 6 seed hosting 11).
I really don't see how another team can squeeze into 5 or 6 spot above us and the CCG loser. And I'm confident that Indiana still sneaks in late in the poll. Maybe #11 and they have to come to Happy Valley Dec. 21...?
To elaborate on my last point (no other team can squeeze in above PSU and the Big Ten CCG loser in the ranking)...
The most likely SEC scenarios are Texas/TAMU winner in the last week of the season plays against Bama or Georgia (depending on tie-breakers). It'd be 10-2 Bama and 10-2 Georgia...and either 11-1 Texas or 10-2 TAMU.
Whoever wins the SEC CCG is a shoe-in 2-seed.
The CCG loser then would either be a 10-3 Bama, 10-3 Georgia, 11-2 Texas or 10-3 TAMU. The only one who might push us lower would be 11-2 Texas if they lost close in the SEC CCG. Right?
Here's your likely seeds...
1. Big Ten champ
2. SEC champ
3. ACC champ
4. Big 12 champ (or Boise State, if the Big 12 champ stumbles to the finish line)
5. Big Ten CCG loser
6. Penn State (or SEC CCG loser)
7. SEC CCG loser (or Penn State)
8. 3rd place SEC (10-2 Bama or 10-2 Georgia. or 10-2 Texas or 10-2 Tennessee)
9. Notre Dame (if they win out, or 5th place SEC)
10. 4th place SEC (10-2 Bama or 10-2 Georgia. or 10-2 Texas or 10-2 Tennessee)
11. Indiana
12. Boise State (or the Big 12 champ if it stumbles to the finish line)
The other thing that's great about this set-up...is we don't have any conference rematches (PSU hosts Indiana, but they didn't play in season this year.)
The most likely SEC scenarios are Texas/TAMU winner in the last week of the season plays against Bama or Georgia (depending on tie-breakers). It'd be 10-2 Bama and 10-2 Georgia...and either 11-1 Texas or 10-2 TAMU.
Whoever wins the SEC CCG is a shoe-in 2-seed.
The CCG loser then would either be a 10-3 Bama, 10-3 Georgia, 11-2 Texas or 10-3 TAMU. The only one who might push us lower would be 11-2 Texas if they lost close in the SEC CCG. Right?
Here's your likely seeds...
1. Big Ten champ
2. SEC champ
3. ACC champ
4. Big 12 champ (or Boise State, if the Big 12 champ stumbles to the finish line)
5. Big Ten CCG loser
6. Penn State (or SEC CCG loser)
7. SEC CCG loser (or Penn State)
8. 3rd place SEC (10-2 Bama or 10-2 Georgia. or 10-2 Texas or 10-2 Tennessee)
9. Notre Dame (if they win out, or 5th place SEC)
10. 4th place SEC (10-2 Bama or 10-2 Georgia. or 10-2 Texas or 10-2 Tennessee)
11. Indiana
12. Boise State (or the Big 12 champ if it stumbles to the finish line)
The other thing that's great about this set-up...is we don't have any conference rematches (PSU hosts Indiana, but they didn't play in season this year.)
Notre Dame is not high enough if they win out. They will stay right behind us and higher than a third place SEC team. Also unless the SEC ccg loser is an 11-2 Texas they are higher than a 3 loss SEC ccg loser. So they could be as high as #7 or drop to #8 if we are #7.
I don't want to sound all CJF corny, but just win the next two games. After that bring the south to a northern winter day
In addition, I think all the 2-loss SEC teams will be in front of Indiana after they lose this weekend (i.e., assuming ND wins out, Indiana is likely the first team out). If aTm were to win out (i.e., beat both Texas and then Bama in CCG), they would be the SEC Champ 2-Seed, but I think a 3-loss Bama still makes it but probably behind a 2-loss UGa. I still think SEC would get 5 in (11-2 aTm, 10-3 Bama, 10-2 UGa, 10-2 'Ole Miss and 10-2 Texas. 10-2 Tennessee is probably out in that scenario, but still in front of Indiana who would also be out)
