not sure if SC could actually play, but overall I think this game is going to make all of us unhappy in terms of how close it winds up being. Illinois can do a small number of things, and one of those run with power. I would say that stopping the power run might be an area of weakness for us. IF TR is QB, i am seeing this as 17-7 type game.
Anyone else think the PSU - Illinois line has moved in a way that...
- Thread starter CJFisJoePaII
- Start date
No, I just think they know that Illinois sucks overall and their coach is a total jerk. That’s all.
Check the opening line on Penn State-Illinois below.
But I doubt Vegas had any insider information that caused the line to move so hard in the course of just a day or two.
By the way, the opening line against Ohio State had Penn State getting 12.5 points...promptly bet down to 11. Hard to believe the spread would be in that range if Clifford weren't expected to play.
College Football Las Vegas Odds - NCAAF Betting Lines
Find College Football Las Vegas Sportsbook Odds, Betting Lines and Point Spreads for the 2021-22 College football season provided by VegasInsider
Check the opening line on Penn State-Illinois below.
But I doubt Vegas had any insider information that caused the line to move so hard in the course of just a day or two.
By the way, the opening line against Ohio State had Penn State getting 12.5 points...promptly bet down to 11. Hard to believe the spread would be in that range if Clifford weren't expected to play.
College Football Las Vegas Odds - NCAAF Betting Lines
Find College Football Las Vegas Sportsbook Odds, Betting Lines and Point Spreads for the 2021-22 College football season provided by VegasInsiderwww.vegasinsider.com
Don't trust VegasInsider to provide accurate openers for serious sportsbooks. On a typical week, I would consider Circa to have the most legit opening line (and that was not Circa's opener).
I've found VI's opening lines a handy and fairly accurate guide plus the site makes it easy to follow betting trends during the week. Then again, I'm not a serious sportsbook...or even a serious sports bettor...though I like to dabble in it.
It's not often you see 6-point variations right out of the gate there as happened with both the Pitt and Penn State games. Erial may be right: perhaps not much money (or any?) was actually bet on Penn State at 17, but you'd sure be feeling good now if you did get that number somewhere.
I have Illinois +34 points on the expectation that Clifford does not play as part of a three team teaser bet that gives me an extra 10 points to play with on each bet (I paired it with SMU at -3 1/2 and Texas A+M at -9 1/2).. I don't envision PSU scoring too many points with Roberson at QB and what might be reduced playbook, and would love the final score to be 33-0.
Smart wager I agree. PSU will be looking to chew up clock running the ball for long and time consuming scoring drives.
That's not a good way to appear sexy for the upcoming time when we will be evaluated on the "eye test" basis.
Last edited:
I don't want to come across as preachy or condescending, but teasing college games (and point totals) is generally not a good play. There is too much volatility in a college game and it's not worth the price you are paying to move the line. Generally, the best EV teasers are Wong teasers, which is teasing NFL +1.5 to +2.5 dogs up and NFL -7.5 to -8.5 favorites down (through the key numbers of 3, 6, and 7). I believe they were originally supposed to be home teams (at least the dogs), but with decreasing HFA, that is not a hard rule anymore. I wouldn't tease anything else.
PS. Parlays typically are not good plays either unless they are correlated (ex. Dog + Under pt total in low scoring games). And never ever parlay 2 teams playing at different times. You will make more money betting Team A and then betting your winnings on Team B. There is a reason parlays are big money makers for books.
Or it could simply mean a lot of early money came in on PSU -17 and they're still trying to even the play on each team.
I can't imagine a 3-team parlay on a 10pt teaser yields a decent payoff.
I would respectfully disagree on the parlay. I think a 2 or 3 team parlay can be an excellent play. Dog+under is a good example but there are others. I've hit on many 2 or 3 way parlays before -- just takes some research. For the novice or irregular gambler, a parlay across different times can be enjoyable. I've been to Vegas a lot during football season and my wife and other family members will bet on 3 or 4 way parlays and the interest is increased after each win.
Funny story on a parlay--back in 2011, my wife once hit on a 11-team paylay. It was actually 12 team but one game was a push. So she pushes the 1st game, wins the next 10, and has the USC-UCLA game. The o/u was something like 52.5. At halftime, its 29-0 USC. We're thinking USC is just going to continue wracking up points. It's 43-0 after 3Qs. The game ends at 50-0 and my wife cashes in on a nice bit of cash. The excitement with her and friends we were with increased after each game but that last one was pretty stressful for the both of us.
Like I said, a correlated parlay can be a reasonable play. Otherwise, the math doesn't work, assuming a typical 2.6/1 payout
2 team parlay at -110:
$100 pays $260
vs.
Bet Team A at $100 to pay $90.91
Bet Team B at $190.91 to pay $173.55
Total profit = $173.55+90.91 = 264.46
That is $4.46 additional profit. Doesn't seem like much, but it's 4.46% of your bet and it adds up over the long run. If you can a 2.64 payout (which I believe you can find online), then they parlay offer no more value than straight betting.
If you don't believe it, just google "why are parlays bad bets".
Have you read his book Sharp Sports Betting? A friend of mine that I used to moderate a forum with helped him write it, and was the moderator at his SSB forum for a long time.
I get what you are saying and trust the math. Just from a timing perspective, Bet A then B only works when early game ends in time unless you assume you will win and then make a separate $190.91 bet out of pocket before game A ends which I've done plenty of times but others may not want to front the cash if game A is still up in the air. For that type of gambler, your scenario would not work for 12p (game A) and 3:30p (game B) college games since most college games last longer than 3 1/2 hours. It certainly wouldn't work for nearly all 1p/4p NFL games.
My point is I look at the 2 or 3 lines I like most and then decide how to proceed. If the games are spread out, I'd go your recommended/proven route. If they games overlap, I'll let it ride on a parlay.
Don't take the scenario so literal. The point is that the sportsbook is adding extra vig. That is why they love parlays. Over the long run, you will make more money with straight betting. If you like the excitement of the parlay, go fot it. As long as you are ok with the book taking a little extra.
Of course. That's where I learned about the Wong teaser, amongst many other things.
That's really cool. I forget his real name (Stanford Wong). Is the SSB forum still active?
No, it shut down probably 10-15 years ago. Then my old “boss” eventually bought what was left of it from Stanford.
Last edited:
You are correct on all counts. I used a teaser this weekend because I was somewhat uncertain re "how goes" the Penn State game due to the QB situation. I would have won Thursday night's SMU - Tulane on its own at -13 1/2 points, so unless my other two bets come in --- I lose. I think I'm in very good shape with Illinois +34 and Texas A+M at -9 1/2, but you never know. Basic math says it all --- if you win two out of three bets "straight up" you're up $80 +/-, but if you win two out of three "teaser" bets you are down $120. I occasionally do a two team NFL six point teaser bet, which has generally worked out well for me as NFL games seem to end up being closer than college games. I'd appreciate your thoughts on those type of teaser bets as well. Thanks for the excellent betting analysis and overview.
Last edited:
I totally agreed with your take on the psu game and that is playing out, but yeah, better to take it straight up. If you hate betting against your team, make a first half bet (early kick, sleepy start).
Go back to my post and look at the Wong teaser strategy. That is the way to do it for NFL.
PS. There is some sharp action on south Carolina. Calzada is really not that good. Just in case you want to consider a small hedge and try to hit the middle.
As it turned out, my friend, the bettors were right, but had no clue about his health nor the lack of preparation by the coaching staff. Btw....I believe our current rankings are indicative of where we should have been ranked weeks ago.
