AP Poll Indicator of CFP Rankings - PSU Implications

[ryoder1]

The AP poll this week has Georgia ahead of Ole Miss and by a wider margin than it has Alabama ahead of Georgia. Why is that significant? It means these voters put a higher priority on "good losses" and bad losses than head to head. Georgia has two good losses to two top 12 teams, Bama and Ole Miss. Both road losses. Ole Miss has two bad losses, Kentucky and LSU, especially with LSU losing to Florida this past week. If the CFP rankings follow this logic then Georgia will he ahead of Ole Miss.

Implication for Penn State is we cannot lose again or our playoff chances will be very slim. Why?

Indiana will be a team we will be jockeying with for a playoff spot if they lose on Saturday. Even if Indiana loses to OSU they would be ahead of us by only having one loss and a good loss to OSU assuming they are not blown out. This good loss puts them ahead of us. We also would have two losses and one being a bad loss to Minny, for example. In this scenario that then leaves us in a death match versus Tennessee for the 11th spot assuming no other disruptive upsets.

When looking at a 2 loss Penn State vs a 2 loss Tennessee I believe the edge goes to Tennessee. Our losses would be comparable, a good loss and a bad loss, PSU losing to OSU and Minny, Tenn losing to Georgia and Arkansas. We do currently have the edge in strength of schedule (#32 vs #49). However, I believe the deciding factor would be the signature win comparison. We will not have beaten anyone that good and our best win would be #24 Illinois. They will have beaten a top ten Alabama. That is their trump card over us.

I believe we will win out so we can avoid this mess. In my opinion, we have started the playoffs and our next two games are must wins, no room for error. If we do lose again then we would need some favorable upsets such as USC beating ND an/or Vandy beating Tennessee.

 

[bcspsu]

The AP poll this week has Georgia ahead of Ole Miss and by a wider margin than it has Alabama ahead of Georgia. Why is that significant? It means these voters put a higher priority on "good losses" and bad losses than head to head. Georgia has two good losses to two top 12 teams, Bama and Ole Miss. Both road losses. Ole Miss has two bad losses, Kentucky and LSU, especially with LSU losing to Florida this past week. If the CFP rankings follow this logic then Georgia will he ahead of Ole Miss.

Implication for Penn State is we cannot lose again or our playoff chances will be very slim. Why?

Indiana will be a team we will be jockeying with for a playoff spot if they lose on Saturday. Even if Indiana loses to OSU they would be ahead of us by only having one loss and a good loss to OSU assuming they are not blown out. This good loss puts them ahead of us. We also would have two losses and one being a bad loss to Minny, for example. In this scenario that then leaves us in a death match versus Tennessee for the 11th spot assuming no other disruptive upsets.

When looking at a 2 loss Penn State vs a 2 loss Tennessee I believe the edge goes to Tennessee. Our losses would be comparable, a good loss and a bad loss, PSU losing to OSU and Minny, Tenn losing to Georgia and Arkansas. We do currently have the edge in strength of schedule (#32 vs #49). However, I believe the deciding factor would be the signature win comparison. We will not have beaten anyone that good and our best win would be #24 Illinois. They will have beaten a top ten Alabama. That is their trump card over us.

I believe we will win out so we can avoid this mess. In my opinion, we have started the playoffs and our next two games are must wins, no room for error. If we do lose again then we would need some favorable upsets such as USC beating ND an/or Vandy beating Tennessee.

I think we're whistling in the dark if we believe that two losses aren't going to be problematic for PSU to make the playoffs. PSU basically has to treat this Minny game like the Super Bowl, because I think that the Maryland game will be a formality if we win the Minny game.

 

[fastlax16]

I think we're whistling in the dark if we believe that two losses aren't going to be problematic for PSU to make the playoffs. PSU basically has to treat this Minny game like the Super Bowl, because I think that the Maryland game will be a formality if we win the Minny game.

Wish we were playing the Maryland game @maryland during a blackout.

 

[ryoder1]

I think we're whistling in the dark if we believe that two losses aren't going to be problematic for PSU to make the playoffs. PSU basically has to treat this Minny game like the Super Bowl, because I think that the Maryland game will be a formality if we win the Minny game.

Yep, we need to take care of business in Minneapolis.

Their defense is pretty good so it would be nice if a WR could show up for this game. Not counting on it but I think Warren can take over with like 8-10 catches and that does it for us along with the run game and passes to Singleton/Allen. On defense, they can't run the ball so we can blitz them and Carter can create all sorts of problems. Don't think their QB has great mobility or foot speed.

 

[84Lion]

I don't see Penn State losing to Minnesota. If they do, they probably don't deserve a playoff berth. Minnesota has 4 losses. People talk about Penn State "playing nobody." Minnesota has not played a FBS team currently ranked and has lost to Iowa, Michigan, and Rutgers.

Beyond that, there's a lot of football to be played. The SEC still has some tough games coming up, Alabama-Oklahoma, Ole Miss-Florida, Tennessee-Vanderbilt, and Texas-TAMU. All that's needed are a couple of upsets and those 3-loss SEC teams can be put to bed. Notre Dame still has to play Army and USC.

We as Penn State fans just need to have patience and remain positive. I don't see a two-loss SEC team jumping a one-loss Penn State.

 

[bcspsu]

I don't see Penn State losing to Minnesota. If they do, they probably don't deserve a playoff berth. Minnesota has 4 losses. People talk about Penn State "playing nobody." Minnesota has not played a FBS team currently ranked and has lost to Iowa, Michigan, and Rutgers.

Beyond that, there's a lot of football to be played. The SEC still has some tough games coming up, Alabama-Oklahoma, Ole Miss-Florida, Tennessee-Vanderbilt, and Texas-TAMU. All that's needed are a couple of upsets and those 3-loss SEC teams can be put to bed. Notre Dame still has to play Army and USC.

We as Penn State fans just need to have patience and remain positive. I don't see a two-loss SEC team jumping a one-loss Penn State.

The game that stands out to me for Minny is the home game against Iowa in which they gave up 31 points; Iowa has been bad this season on the road, losing at MSU and UCLA along with the predictable blowout loss at OSU.